Daily Forex Market by FXCC 09Mar2012

EUR/USD sells-off as Greece completes debt swap with 85.8% participation

USD/JPY has jumped higher in Asia as weaker-than-expected Chinese CPI data looks to have stimulated investors’ risk appetites. The pair has moved up to as high as 81.88 from 81.54 late Thursday as it tests the 81.87 double top seen Monday and last Friday.The Euro fell this morning as the Greek govt announced it had completed a debt swap with participation at 85.8% vs expectations running as high as 90/95%, although the number stays very much in line with the first initial pre-announcement by Greek offcials at the NY close. €172 tendered vs €206 eligible with Greek officials saying they will enact CACs, as they will amend terms of Greek law bonds for all holders. Grecia has also said participation will be 95.7% (€197m) after CAC triggered. Finally, Greece says 69% of non-Greek bondholders participated.

After the push down to 84.80 at the start of the week, AUD/JPY has bounced nicely from the mentioned support zone and the recovery has extended to as high as 87.12 so far in the Asia-Pacific. AUD/USD is having a minor pull-back from 1.0640 to 1.0634 after the China's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, came in lower-than-expected at 3.2% vs 3.5%, down from January's 4.5% increase.
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UPCOMING EVENTS
2012-03-09 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jan)
2012-03-09 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY)
2012-03-09 12:00 GMT | Canada Unemployment Rate (Feb)
2012-03-09 12:00 GMT | Canada Net Change in Employment (Feb)

FOREX NEWS
2012-03-09 05:34 GMT | China Retail Sales (YoY) falls to 14.7% in Feb from 18.1%
2012-03-09 01:37 GMT | China: CPI weaker than expected at 3.2% in Feb
2012-03-09 01:33 GMT | China Feb Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.2%
2012-03-09 00:39 GMT | Australia Jan Trade Balance -0.673B

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EURUSD : 1.32410 / 1.32418
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3485 | 1.3424 | 1.3362 | 1.3291
1.3159 | 1.3096 | 1.3053 | 1.2985

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

In yesterday’s analysis we said we were expecting the EURUSD either to break above the uptrend trend line (daily), confirm that the pair is still in an uptrend or to break below 1.3100 and to establish a new trend – down trend. As we can see on the chart the bullish scenario took place and the price broke above the uptrend trend line determining that the uptrend is still in effect. The EURUSD rose and moved below our first resistance this morning at 1.3291 (R1) and now it seems that it is close to retesting the uptrend trend line again just above our first support. Look for long positions above the first support level targeting 1.3291 (R1) and further rise will then be limited at 1.3362 (R2).

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GBPUSD : 1.58039 / 1.58051
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.5991 | 1.5943 | 1.5882 | 1.5847
1.5778 | 1.5695 | 1.5633 | 1.5580

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Neutral
STOCHASTIC : Overbought


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

GBPUSD made a sharp move upwards and successfully broke above yesterday’s resistance level continuing our winning streak by giving as a good profit (+49 pips). As long as it is above our second support level 1.5695 (S2), we can look for long positions close to our first support at 1.5778 (S1). A stop loss should be placed at 1.5695 (S2) but the most conservative and tactical traders can hold and wait for the break above 1.5847 (R2) to open their long positions targeting 1.5882 (R2).

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USDJPY : 81.684 / 81.694
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



83.14 | 82.79 | 82.30 | 81.88
81.31 | 80.94 | 80.58 | 80.24

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Neutral
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

USDJPY gained momentum and formed higher bottoms successfully penetrating yesterday's target ending our day with 53 pips of profit!! After that the price found a strong resistance at 81.88 (R1), a yearly high. We expect the price to move upwards but only a break above 81.88 (R1) will give as a confirmation for long positions targeting 82.79 (R3). A stop loss should be placed at 81.31 (S1).


Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (http://www.fxcc.com)