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Australia’s Consumer Confidence Slightly Declined

The consumer confidence in Australia declined last week due to the current and future finances sentiment and risks on longer-term outlook remains.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index slipped by 0.6 percent to 113.4 during the week until October 1st, showing a positive sentiment to the economic situation offset by the decline in the prospect of households based on personal finances.

Moreover, consumers are confident regarding the current and future conditions of the economy and came in at 2.5 percent last and 2.0 percent accordingly. However, the household’s outlook is down to 1.6 percent.

Felicity Emmett, ANZ Senior Economist, stated that the financial condition remains above average in the longer-term even though its stability became shaky. The index for buying household goods lowered down by 3.3 percent, as the increased last week eased off and keep below the long-term average. This coincided with the forecast on retail sales for the month of August which has the tendency to decline due to the recovery period.

Furthermore, expectations for inflation revised upward from 0.1 percent to 4.5 percent based on the four-week moving average.


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Economic Calendar (October 3, 2017)
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Australia’s Consumer Confidence Slightly Declined

The consumer confidence in Australia declined last week due to the current and future finances sentiment and risks on longer-term outlook remains.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index slipped by 0.6 percent to 113.4 during the week until October 1st, showing a positive sentiment to the economic situation offset by the decline in the prospect of households based on personal finances.

Moreover, consumers are confident regarding the current and future conditions of the economy and came in at 2.5 percent last and 2.0 percent accordingly. However, the household’s outlook is down to 1.6 percent.

Felicity Emmett, ANZ Senior Economist, stated that the financial condition remains above average in the longer-term even though its stability became shaky. The index for buying household goods lowered down by 3.3 percent, as the increased last week eased off and keep below the long-term average. This coincided with the forecast on retail sales for the month of August which has the tendency to decline due to the recovery period.

Furthermore, expectations for inflation revised upward from 0.1 percent to 4.5 percent based on the four-week moving average.


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UK Inflation Ranked First Among The G7: OECD

According to the statistics issued by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the cost of living in Britain increased faster compared to other countries, including the so-called ‘G7 leading global economies’. Based on the revealed figures, the British economy has the highest inflation rate among top economies of the world, as the Brexit weighed on the sterling pound and continue to put pressure on household finances.

Inflation in the United Kingdom rose to 2.9% last month due to a surge in prices of fuel and clothing which exacerbate the pressure towards cash-strapped households struggling with slow wage growth. The UK was able to overcome the 1.7% average, which is also greater than the recorded inflation of other G7 members (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States). It also exceeded the OECD average percentage of 2.2%, this further indicates that Britain surmounted the European Union including other G20 nations, showing results at .5%, 1.7%, and 2.3%.

However, the Britons are currently facing poor wage growth and high expenditure on the back of a weaker pound. This is because of the Brexit referendum that heightened prices for energy, imported goods, and services. Furthermore, United Kingdom is only behind Estonia, Latvia, Mexico, and Turkey.


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Miscalculation of ONS Affected BoE’s Possible Rate Hike

The Office for National Statistics of UK further put pressure on the Bank of England over the issue of the rate hike next month after it lacks confidence to the pacing of the labor costs. On Monday, the official statistics agency admitted the mistakes made on its initial estimates for the growth of wage costs unit. The calculation is shown an annualized 2.4 percent in three months to June against the earlier published 1.6 percent on Friday.

The upward revision indicates that growth wages in Britain could be a driving force closely examined by Threadneedle Street, while there is a possible rate increase for the first time in the past decade. Moreover, the growing labor costs imply the strengthening of the economy, confirming a raise in interest rates.

The borrowing cost would likely boost from 0.25% to 0.5% and the committee for the monetary policy should decide whether the economy is capable to come up with the increase.

Regardless of the optimistic signs of the economy, there are varying prospects for a weaker scenario. As reports from the construction sector revealed signs for a possible downturn. While the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, on the other hand, predicted that UK economy will slow-up in 2018.

Furthermore, analysts from Swiss bank UBS mentioned that the rate hike could worsen the potential reversal of the British economy due to Brexit procedures.

The wages of British laborers were not able to surge over inflation rate since the 1970s in spite of low levels of unemployment. However, salary growth is improving but fail to keep its pace due to a high cost of living brought by imports value relative to the sluggish pound.


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Rise in German Exports and Bigger Trade surplus in August

Exports from Germany surpassed imports in August bringing the gap of the trade surplus wider and reflects the performance of the Europe’s biggest economy where it appears to be robust in the third quarter on Tuesday.

The exports were seasonally adjusted and climbed by 3.1 percent for October while imports got higher by 1.2 percent according to the data from the Federal Statistics Office. This has been the highest growth of exports in twelve months.

Overall, both exports and imports had operated better than anticipated. A poll from Reuters noted that the exports increased by 1.0 percent and imports ascended by 0.5 percent. On the other hand, the seasonally adjusted trade surplus gapped much bigger at 21.6 billion euros or $25.42 billion after adjustment on 19.3 billion euros in July. The reading from August was much elevated than the predicted figure of 20.0 billion euros from Reuters.

The wider account surplus shows the exchange of goods, services, and investment as it dropped to 17.8 billion euros and revised upwards to 19.6 billion euros in July which is not modified.

Expected Positive Recovery on World Economy, says IMF

On Tuesday, the comprehensive global economic growth is expected to remain this year until 2018, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While the gains of most countries around the globe were able to countervail weak data from India, United Kingdom, and the United States.

The IMF revised higher its predictions for the current economic upswing by 0.1 percentage points, showing 3.6 percent increase and 3.7 percent for next year. The upgraded forecast was steered by the increase in consumer confidence, investment, and trades.

Moreover, projections for China, Japan, and the euro area, including emerging markets, Europe and Russia, also skyrocketed.

The economic development in the United States remained unchanged at 2.2 percent in 2017 and 2.3 percent next year based on Fund’s July statistics. The tax reduction imposed by Trump administration is still not accomplished, as expected.

As indicated in the Fund’s report for April, the 2017 growth outlook for the United States was trimmed by 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points in 2018, and suddenly raise in July with the same points.

The Republican party had laid out three tax proposals seeing that Trump governs since January and the administration's most recent action is stuck in a political dispute in Congress.

The Fund affirmed that America’s economy would slow down due to changing demographics and weak productivity development in the longer term. It further mentioned that the potential growth of the state will only be at 1.8 percent, which is lower than the government’s target at 3.0 percent.


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Canada Ahead Against G7: IMF Economic Growth Estimate for 2017

The Canadian economic growth increased the estimated value until next year of the International Monetary Fund. It was placed in a higher ranking amongst developed countries.

The projected value of the country’s Gross Domestic Product for this year is 3.0 percent which is half a percent higher than the prediction in July. This makes Canada be on top of other advanced seven nations with the United States ranks at 2.2 percent growth since last year.

The figures from the IMF were similar to the quotation issued in the previous month by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and assumed that the country would lead the G7 countries for 2017.

It was said that the reason for an increase in growth was the drop in oil and gas prices and further supported by the government and the central bank policies. For next year, the Canada is anticipated to move at a slower rate with an estimated figure of 2.1 percent growth year-on-year in 2018. Yet, this is still higher than 0.2 percent than the IMF July update and second-highest among the G7 with the United States at 2.3 percent.


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Economic Calendar
Know what will happen next in the financial markets with ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar.
ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar is a real-time, customizable, and multifunctional, forex tool that allows traders to be updated with the latest and most relevant market events. All information that could be potentially impact your trading will be listed and analyzed here.
A trader that knows more, profits more. Use ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar and become a better trader today.


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