Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Earlier on Monday, the dollar has stabilized as the sturdy US reports, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment, reduced the investor's concerns regarding the development in the economy. The positive data also enliven the expectations that the Fed may brought up the interest rates as soon as possible contrary with what is expected. But later on, the dollar dropped to its low.

The Monday trading was frail with inferior volatility amidst the empty economic calendar. The financial markets in Germany and France refrain from working as they celebrate the Holy Spirit on Monday. We have not heard any significant report from the UK.

Meanwhile, the previous gains of yen in opposition with the dollar was lost. The reason of its fall was because of the unsatisfying Chinese economic forecasts.

The center of our attraction this week would be the Machine Tool Orders in Japan, the forecast of the Fed, Consumer Prices and the Industrial Production in the Us.

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We have not heard any significant news last Monday. Since it was the Day of the Holy Spirit, most of the European markets were closed to celebrate the event. Meanwhile, in the Bonds Market, the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany decreased which also lessen the charm of the European assets.

The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion creating "Dead Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

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We heard a lot of economic news on Tuesday, US data being the main driver of the day. The States has given the report of Core Consumer Price Index to the public wherein the data came in at 0,2% which occur simultaneously with the report and also the Industrial Production which reached 0,7% against the reported 0,3%. The Federal Reserve representatives, Williams and Lockhart gave their statements. The idea of raising the rates twice or thrice this year was supported by Williams. Meanwhile, Lockhart stated that the negative rates scenario was not intended.

As for the Eurozone, it only published their positive Trade Balance for March wherein the data came in at 28.6 billion against the report of 22.5 billion.

Since September last year, the inflation in the UK decelerated in April for the first time which also caused the pound to lessen its gains contrary with the dollar. After increasing by 0,5% in March, the Retail Price Index grew by 0,3% y/y. The inflation was expected to stay at 0,5% by the traders, but the British inflation has been low from the target level of 2% for more than 2 years.

In March, the Japanese Industrial Production aggressively increased wherein the data came in at 3,8% against the previous 3,6%. While the Capacity Utilization grew from -5,4% to 3,2% in March. But still these statistics could not support the yen.

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Bonds Market. The 10-year UK government bonds yield decreased which lessen the investments of the British assets. The UK presented Consumer Price index for April wherein the data came in at 0,3% y/y against the report of 0,5% y/y.

The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement creating a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in an impartial location. The price is correcting.

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As the expectations that the Fed would heighten the rates is growing, the US dollar increased contrary to the euro on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index for April reached 0,2% against the expected -0,2% as published by the Euro zone.

The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price may be found below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a descending movement. This activity will remain until the price goes below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

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The primary Gross Domestic Product of the Japanese for Q1 stabilized as the data came in at +0,4% against the report 0,1%. On a yearly basis, the GDP has increased by 1,7% during the first quarter. In the midst of the upgraded data in Japan and the United states, the expectation that the Bank of Japan will weaken the monetary policy even more has been diminished.

The first support occurs at 109.80 and at 109.00 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 110.60 and at 111.40 subsequently.

An inveterate and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display an ascending movement. This activity will remain until the price goes over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

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Bonds Market. The interest in the European assets lessened due to the decline in the 10-year German government bonds yield. Protocols were presented by the ECB. The euro could not be sustained by the issued ECB minutes.

The primary support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1040 subsequently. While the primary resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

An inveterate and a solid sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement. This activity will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.

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Though the macroeconomic calendar was empty, the investors of Switzerland put their interest to the United States' data. The USA presented the Initial Jobless Claims report wherein the data showed 278,000 against the expected 275,000 and also the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey wherein -1.8 againts the report 3.5.

The primary support occurs at 0.9850 and at 0.9750 subsequently. The primary resistance stands at 0.9940 and at 1.0020 subsequently.

An inveterate and a solid buy signal. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen creates an ascending movement. This activity will remain until the price is on top of the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

The Aussie has found support at the 0.72 level after moving sideways since Thursday which we view as neutral. Our perspective is unlikely to change in the immediate future as there is little data scheduled to be released this week that will impact AUD/USD.

After closing in New York at 0.7228, the pair is now trading at 0.7250 after hitting an intraday high of 0.7261 in earlier session.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak later today in Sydney. He is expected to to touch on Australia’s lagging inflation and labor market. Stevens may also hint the board members’ sentiment on an interest rate hike this month. The business capital expenditure report for the first quarter will be out this week, but low volatility is expected as markets’ focus are now on the country’s inflation.

On the US side, the FOMC minutes last week implied an earlier rate increase in June, ahead of the September monetary policy meeting where the benchmark rate is expected to rise.

The first support occurs at 0.7225 and 0.7210 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 0.7333 and 0.7436 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is climbing.


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Fed’s hawkish sentiment evident in its FOMC meeting minutes released last week fairly strengthened the dollar against other currencies even the reasonably strong NZD. We can see that the buying interest in the NZD/USD will stay in the near term.

The pair is trading at 0.6797 in Wellington. Volatility is expected on Thursday as the New Zealand government announces the annual budget which include a possible revised inflation forecast. Data released last week showed that inflation was at 1.6 percent.

The first support is at 0.6716 and 0.6594 while the first resistance is at 0.6823 and 0.7054 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is rising.

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