Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 14, 2021

Yesterday, we recommended waiting another day to see whether the price will settle below 1.1802, or will there be an upward reversal from it. The MACD indicator line of the daily scale is located at the level of 1.1802. Yesterday, the price just pierced this line with a lower shadow and closed the day higher. The Marlin Oscillator did not move below the zero line. Today the price may turn upwards. The targets are indicated on the chart: 1.1852, 1.1920.

On the four-hour scale, the price made a false pass under the level of 1.1802, forming a convergence with the Marlin Oscillator. This is a reversal signal. Marlin came close to the border with the territory of the growing trend. Overcoming yesterday's high (1.1817) will be a signal that the price could advance to the first target at 1.1852. But here we will clarify the range of the first target - 1.1852/58, since the MACD line is above, and its breakthrough in the current situation becomes a more important condition for the euro's growth towards the second target of 1.1920.

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 14, 2021

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair decided to try to develop an upward momentum once again over the last week. On the daily chart, the price settled above the MACD indicator line, with the help of the Marlin oscillator, which turned up from the zero line. The growth target of 110.63 is the embedded trend line of the price channel. The stock market is not flat, but is growing: yesterday the S&P 500 added 0.23%, the Nasdaq lost -0.07%.

On the four-hour scale chart, the price settled above the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines, and today, since the opening of the Pacific session, the price turned upward from the MACD line, which formed a reversal pattern. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the zero line. We are waiting for the price to continue rising.

American stock indices fell by 0.5-0.8%

The US stock market closed in the red on Tuesday after rising early in the day on data that inflation in the US was slightly weakening. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite dropped for the fifth session in a row.

Initially, the market began to rally in relief due to slightly smaller-than-expected price increases, but this data is unlikely to change the intentions of the Federal Reserve to roll back stimulus measures, says Randy Frederick, managing director of Charles Schwab.

Consumer prices (CPI) in the country in August rose by 5.3% compared to the same month last year, the Ministry of Labor said. Thus, inflation has slowed down somewhat compared to the maximum value over the past thirteen years of 5.4%, which was recorded in June and July. The change in the CPI index in August coincided with the average forecast of analysts.

Prices excluding food and energy (Core CPI) increased 0.1% MoM (the smallest increase since February) and 4% YoY. The consensus forecast was for an increase of 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday fell by 292.06 points (0.84%), that is, to 34577.57 points.

The value of Standard & Poor's 500 decreased during the day by 25.68 points (0.57%), amounting to 4468.73 points.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 67.82 points (0.45%), that is, to 15,037.76 points.

Oracle Corp. decreased yesterday by 2.8%. A day earlier, one of the world's largest software companies announced that its revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022 (June-August) increased by 4%. However, it did not live up to the expectations of the experts.

Apple Inc. dropped 1% after the company unveiled a new line of smartphones, the iPhone 13, as part of the annual event. The new iPad and Apple Watch were also shown with a display that seamlessly merges with the body.

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. plummeted more than 21% after a nutritional supplement maker worsened its financial outlook for the second time in a month.

Sportradar Group AG fell 7.2% at its debut trading to $ 25.05. The Swiss sports performance analytics firm conducted an IPO at $ 27 on the Nasdaq and raised $ 513 million. The IPO was $ 513 million, and the company as a whole was valued at $ 21.07 billion.

Among the Dow Jones components, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (-2%), Caterpillar Inc. (-1.9%) and Chevron Corp. (-1.8%). At the same time, only Microsoft Corp. shares rose in price. (+ 0.9%), Salesforce.com Inc. (+ 0.1%) and Coca-Cola Co. (+ 0.1%).

Intuit Inc. added 2% in price. The software maker that owns tax-processing platform TurboTax has announced its $ 12 billion purchase of marketing firm MailChimp.

Forecast for AUD/USD on September 16, 2021

Yesterday, the Australian dollar closed the day with a white candle of 11 points, piercing the 23.6% Fibonacci level with the lower shadow, that is, having made a false exit below the level. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the border with the downward trend area. Conditions and signs have been formed for a further rise to the Fibonacci level of 38.2% at the price of 0.7450. Overcoming this level opens the second target of 0.7558 - Fibonacci level 50.0%. The level grid is based on the movement from February 25 to August 20.

The Marlin Oscillator has moved into the growth area on the four-hour chart. The price is heading towards the intermediate resistance on the way to the target of 0.7450 - to the MACD line in the area of 0.7404.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2021

The euro gained 15 points on Wednesday, helped by the ongoing divergence in European and US economic indicators for several weeks. Yesterday, European industrial production growth in July showed an increase of 1.5%, and in the US by 0.4%.

On a daily scale chart, the price is slowly reversing upward from the MACD indicator line. The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways along the zero line - along the border separating the growing and declining trends. This behavior of the oscillator shows that additional external factors are required to continue the euro's growth. Today, it may be the indicator of retail sales in the United States for the last month - the forecast is negative: -0.8% after reducing by 1.1% in July.

We are waiting for the euro to strengthen with the release of the evening data. The task is to overcome the resistance range of 1.1852/58, which will open the second target at 1.1920.

On the four-hour timescale, the Marlin Oscillator has consolidated in a growing trend zone. The price is currently struggling with the resistance by the balance indicator line, breaking above which will make it easier for the price to prepare for an attack on the target range of 1.1852/58.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 17, 2021

Yesterday, the euro fell 52 points under mysterious circumstances. The euro chose its main movement even before the release of data on retail sales, which had practically no effect on the euro, except that other counter-dollar currencies weakened a little after the European flagship. The euro fell along with gold and US government bonds - gold lost 2.25% in a day, the yield on 5-year bonds rose from 0.799% to 0.840%. The daily trading volume for the euro was the highest in September and August. This is possible only in one case - if investors know for sure about the intention of the Federal Reserve to announce a tightening of QE at the next meeting on September 22nd.

But we will not lay such an assumption on the basis of current forecasts, since harsh statements by central banks can easily reverse technical prerequisites and trends. At the moment, the situation for the euro is completely downward: the price went under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator is going down in the negative zone. If it were not for the upcoming Fed meeting, we would have concluded that a confident movement to the target level of 1.1640 is being formed, but now we will keep silent about this, but note that the price is at the lower border of the consolidation range formed on July 20-26 (1.1750). Therefore, it is very possible that the decline below the indicator lines, and Marlin's departure below the zero line, may eventually turn out to be false - the price may turn upward from this level this time too. We will receive the answer only on Wednesday next week. Today our recommendation is to refrain from trading.

On the four-hour chart, a standard correction occurs after the previous price drop. The MACD line is located high from the price, which creates the preconditions for the formation of a new range (sideways movement) before the Fed meeting.

Analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on September 20

GBP / USD fell strongly on Friday, which opened a good opportunity to take short positions. Sadly, the MACD line was far from zero, so investors had no choice but to ignore the signal.

Today though it is likely that the pair will drop in price as there are not much statistics expected to be published. Thus, it would be best to trade along the trend and bet on a decline.

By afternoon, the market should become calm because the absence of US statistics will force traders to take a wait and see attitude. Data on the housing market will be published, but it is unlikely to affect dollar significantly, although it may partially support it.

For long positions:
Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3730 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3763 (thicker green line on the chart). But it is unlikely to see a huge growth today since there was a massive sell-off during the Asian session. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3701, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3730 and 1.3763.

For short positions:
Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3701 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3661. The pair may continue the downward trend that started last week. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

The pair could also be sold at 11.3730, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3701 and 1.3661.

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on September 20

EUR / USD fell strongly on Friday, which opened a good opportunity to take short positions. And fortunately it coincided with the MACD line going down from zero, so the price fell just as projected.

Today there will be a report on PPI from Germany, which may show a slowdown for the month of August. If the indicator turns out worse than expected, pressure on risky assets will return. There will also be speeches from ECB members, which may add more pressure to the pair. But by afternoon the market may become calm because the absence of US statistics will force traders to take a wait and see attitude. Data on the housing market will be published, but it is unlikely to affect dollar significantly, although it may partially support it.

For long positions:
Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1742 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1789 (thicker green line on the chart). The pair will climb higher if inflation in Germany exceeds expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1704, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1742 and 1.1789.

For short positions:
Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1704 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1654. A decline will occur if Germany releases a weak inflation report and if the ECB takes a conservative approach on policy tapering. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1742, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1704 and 1.1654.

Bitcoin extends weakness. What to expect in short term?

On Monday, the BTC price reached a low of $45,100. Bitcoin began to drop sharply after it failed to consolidate above the resistance level of $48,800 on Saturday.

On September 20, BTC was trading near the $43,250 mark. Over the past day, it has sunk by 5%. At the same time, the market capitalization fell below $860 billion. Following the decrease of bitcoin, the leading altcoins also incurred significant losses. Ethereum declined by 7% to $3,100, and Cardano shed 9% to $2,170.

Now, crypto traders are focusing their attention on the amendment to Tax Code Section 6050I of the United States. Reportedly, the new Infrastructure Bill aims to extend requirements on cryptocurrencies. If enacted, this bill will require any US person receiving over $10,000 in cryptocurrency to report the sender's personal information, including Social Security Number (SSN), to the authorities within 15 days. Violation of this law entails penalties and even imprisonment for five years.

Apart from that, the rules of section 6050I can apply to miners, wallet developers, and many other players of the crypto market. Such chnages in the US infrastructure plan will deliver a severe blow to BTC, analysts believe.

In addition, in the near future, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plans to check one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Binance, for market manipulation and insider trading. US regulators assume that Binance conducts insider transactions, including trading on customer orders before executing them

As for the long-term forecasts of experts amid recent events in the crypto world, they are think that bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $39,000 during the next rally. The main reason for such an optimistic scenario is a decline in the trading volumes on top-tier cryptocurrency exchanges.

However, if the forecasts do not come true and BTC falls to $39,000, bulls will simply not let it drop lower. In this case, the owners of stablecoins will begin to massively transfer them to BTC amid a possible drop in the asset.

Signs of a new rally in the crypto market appeared last week, when the stablecoin supply reached $120 billion. As a rule, it indicates an upcoming trend change.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 22, 2021

Here are the details of the economic calendar for Sept 21:

Yesterday, the US construction sector statistics were published, where traders saw solid gains.

Details: 12:30 Universal time

- The number of construction permits issued in August rose by 6.0%, with a forecast decline of 1.8%.

- The volume of construction of new homes in August rose by 3.9%, with a growth forecast of 2.0%.

* Construction permits are the absolute number of permits for the construction of new residential buildings issued by state bodies in the reporting month. The U.S. Census Bureau collects this data by sending requests to permitting agencies across the country. The monthly survey sample covers 9,000 permit-issuing points across the country.

The volume of construction of new houses is the absolute number of new housing construction projects that began in the reporting month.
Analysis of trading charts from September 21:

The Euro managed to slightly strengthen its position against the US dollar, pulling back the quote from the level of 1.1700 by about 40 points. The downward interest still takes place among market participants for this very reason, but the pullback was replaced by stagnation.

In this case, traders consider the 1.1700 level as a temporary pivot point when forming a decline.

The trading plan on September 21 considered the possibility of a further downward movement, but the signal for action should have come after the price had kept below the level of 1.1700.

The GBP/USD pair slowed down the decline in the area of 1.3640, where a pullback occurred at the beginning, after stagnation at 1.3640/1.3690. Despite the pound's high level of oversold, market participants are still focused on the decline. This is indicated by a number of technical factors: the absence of correction, the process of deceleration, and an increase in the volume of short positions.

September 22 economic calendar:

Today, everyone is focused on the results of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where the regulator will certainly leave the key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0-0.25%. The most important point is the fate of the quantitative easing program, where if it is announced, a wave of speculation will arise in all markets. In simple words, the US stock market will sharply decline, and the US dollar will strengthen.

A number of events are particularly important ones, so speculation is expected at the time of the press conference. Be cautious.

FOMC meeting results - 18:00 Universal time

FOMC press conference - 18:30 Universal time

Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 22:

Market participants regarded the price movement within the level of 1.1700 as stagnation. Most likely, the information and news background will provoke speculators to new leaps. In this situation, the coordinates 1.1700 and 1.1750 are considered signal levels. The price being kept outside a certain level may indicate a local movement.

To simply put it, trading is carried out on a breakdown of one level or another.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 22:

The oversold level may be ignored by market participants. If the price is kept below the level of 1.3640, a path will open towards the range of 1.3600-1.3571.

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 23, 2021

At yesterday's FOMC Federal Reserve meeting, the dollar index rose 0.27%, the stock market (S&P 500) rose 0.95%, and the USD/JPY pair showed an increase of 0.53% (54 points). The price went above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, but the MACD line has long been transformed into a "skewer" or "spindle" line, on which the price winds up, and its return under the MACD line can occur at any time.

We associate fears and the greatest likelihood of a fall in prices, that is, of a strengthening of the yen, with an unfinished correction in the stock market. Today, as expected, the Chinese company Evergrande will declare insolvency. The issue of restructuring the company's debt is being resolved, the Chinese regulator predicts the bankruptcy of several more companies, but announced the refusal to save them in order to improve the market. But the most important thing is that institutional investors have already left the US stock market and now they themselves predict its fall by 10-20%, also for the recovery of the (now speculative) market at the expense of retail buyers.

The price also broke above the MACD line on the four-hour scale, but the Marlin oscillator shows an intention to turn down, which may lead to the third return of the price under the MACD line in the last 10 days. These places are marked on the graph with gray ovals.

Summary: today is not a definite day for trading. We look forward to the development of events today and tomorrow.

If we take a look at FreshForex daily USD/CAD analysis then we will see massive downtrend and this pair already lost around 200 pips where price is now moving at 1.2634 so next hour this might correct some prices.

British pound rose after the Bank of England's meeting

The British currency increased following the long-awaited meeting of the Bank of England. The pound received a strong impulse to rise, which it successfully used.

After the meeting of representatives of the Central Bank of England, the pound's price increased. Its growth continued after statements that two representatives of the regulator voted for the early curtailment of government bond purchase programs. It should be noted that before the announcement of the Bank of England's decisions, the pound was trading at 1.3686. After that, it gained 0.7%, reaching the level of 1.3715. On Friday morning, the GBP/USD pair was trading around the level of 1.3720. Analysts believe that the long-term downward trend of the pair began to turn up, breaking through the resistance level of 1.3665 and approaching the support level of 1.3730.

As expected, the Bank of England kept the interest rate at the same level of 0.1%. According to the regulator, it intends to adhere to the current target of buying assets in the amount of 895 billion pounds ($1.22 trillion). The economists said that the last meeting of the Bank of England was quite "hawkish". Such tactics help postpone the deadline for raising rates until the end of the first quarter of 2022.

According to experts, rate expectations during the last few months have not been able to support the pound. The attempt to rally the GBP also failed. Some disagreements in the leadership related to forecasts of high inflation and slow economic growth also worsen the situation. Experts pay attention to the sensitivity of the dynamics of the pound to the data on the labor market, which has not been encouraging lately.

To date, the Bank of England has taken a wait-and-see attitude, preferring to wait for additional information before starting to tighten monetary policy. Many analysts believe that the discussion of issues related to the end of incentives increases the chances of an early curtailment of quantitative easing (QE) programs.

The current situation gives the pound an additional growth impulse. It is steadily gaining momentum, although experts admit the possibility of a pullback. At the moment, the pound, having risen on the wave of the "hawkish" comments of the regulator, is trying to consolidate in the upward trend. Experts summarize that in such a situation, the chances of a further rate increase in 2022 gets high.