Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 1, 2016This week's primary event would be the conference of the ECB in the Eurozone. There are assumptions that the European regulator will leave its monetary policy unchanged. The currency pair tried to regain on Tuesday. The resistance occurs at 1.1200 while the support stands at 1.1130. The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral zone which does not provide clear signals.

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The pound managed to recover from its lows. Generally, the dollar stayed solid contrary to the pound as an aftermath of Janet Yellen's speech last Friday. The market hopes for new drivers for a further activity.

The resistance occurs at the level of 1.4560 while the support stands at 1.4480.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is near to the oversold zone.

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The poor data of Non-farm Payrolls could be a factor of the Fed rate hike delay. The EUR/USD pair bounced up last Friday. It surpassed the levels of 1.1200, 1.1250 and 1.1300 and reached the level of 1.3730. This cause the pair to look bullish.

The resistance occurs at the level of 1.1370 while the support stands at 1.1300.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location, which signifies growth and is bullish. The RSI approached the overbought level of 70.


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The Aussie dollar is holding on to the bulls with the latest decision from the RBA to keep interest rate at 1.75 percent, a widely-expected move based on strong economic indicators. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7441 and rising.

The first support is seen at 0.7312 and 0.7167 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7530 and 0.7649 subsequently.

Australia’s GDP rose by 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, with an annualized growth of 0.2 percent, the quickest in four years. However, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that low inflation and an appreciating domestic currency may pose greater risks to the economy. The RBA board expect inflation, which is at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, to reach their target of 2 to 3 percent.

A suddenly dovish Yellen is hurting the USD which rallied last week after a rate hike becomes more possible at Fed’s policy meeting in June.

The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is climbing.


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The RBNZ propelled the NZD to a 12-month high, pushing it through 0.71 levels against the USD after the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates at 2.25 percent. The bird has been hovering at 69 cents for quite a long time.

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler left the door open for monetary easing and promised it to be “accommodative.” The central bank is specially keeping an eye on low inflation and expects it to firm and reach their target in the long term, although short-term inflation has been steady.

“We expect inflation to strengthen reflecting the accommodative stance of monetary policy, increases in fuel and other commodity prices, an expected depreciation in the New Zealand dollar and some increase in capacity pressures,” the bank said in a statement.

Uncertainty in the bank’s statements are keeping us from declaring the upside bullish, but a rate above 0.7146 will shift our outlook to a bullish one. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.7125.

The first support is at 0.6960 and 0.6910 subsequently, while the first resistance occurs at 0.7045 and 0.7080 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is rising.


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The Euro is holding onto 1.12 cents against the USD, effectively avoiding a bearish trend but keeping the risks on the upside. Pro-Brexit campaigns are gaining, questioning the stability of the European Union.

It’s a quiet day for the EUR/USD, but Tuesday will bring in trade data from Spain and Italy followed by France on Wednesday. The region’s trade balance is on the radar on Thursday, as well as inflation.

The USD is posting gains against its major peers due to bullish initial jobless claims late last week, reversing losses from dismal nonfarm payrolls in the beginning of the month. This week’s highlight is Fed’s interest rate decision which is expected to remain at 0.5 percent, although some investment firms are forecasting a rate cut.

The pair is trading within a 50-pip range and is currently at 1.1261. The price is climbing.

The first support is at 1.1216 and 1.1179 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1299 and 1.1327 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location.


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Economic data coming this week are overshadowed by a gaining Brexit campaign. Research firm ICM’s latest survey showed the Team ‘Leave’ six points ahead, shaking the strength of the GBP which has been experiencing volatility in recent months.

GBP/USD took a tumble in early session but has been playing teeter totter with each other. USD is on a volatile ride as well with the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Thursday will see the Bank of England announce its interest rate decision that may help push the sterling to bullish territory.

The pair is trading at a wide range between 1.3839 and 1.5931 on the daily charts.

Traders are closely watching public opinion on the Brexit. Little impact is expected from the CPI and PPI today as well as from the unemployment rate on Wednesday.

The first support is at 1.3839 and 1.3724. The first resistance is at 1.4232 and 1.4300. The MACD indicator is in negative position. The spot exchange is 1.4130 and continues to slide.

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A latest survey showing that Vote Leave is points ahead dragged the British pound to 1.41 cents against a stronger US dollar. As the EU referendum approaches, the sterling is swaying nonstop due to voters’ sentiment and the release of poll results after another.

TNS revealed yesterday that 47 percent of respondents wanted the UK to leave the EU, while only 40 percent wanted to remain a member of the bloc. GBP/USD fell to two-month lows. \

UK inflation in May was also on the red, printing only a 0.3 percent rise, similar to the same period last year. Analysts were expecting a 0.4 percent growth. In m/m terms, CPI also disappointed as it climbed by 0.2 percent, missing the forecasted 0.3 percent. Transport costs rose by 0.9 percent in Mayi from the previous month but was offset by declines in food and clothing.

As we predicted, CPI didn’t have significant effect on the sterling especially because a Brexit poll was released in the same day. The Bank of England’s decision on its interest rate is next on the GBP’s economic headline.

The USD performed slightly stronger than its counterparts with the release of positive retail sales which hit 0.5 percent m/m against a 0.3 percent forecast. Core retail sales was in line with expectations at 0.4 percent. Both exports and imports at 1.1 percent and 1.4 percent respectively eclipsed their forecasted rates.

Atlanta Fed upgraded its GDP forecast for Q2 to 2.8 percent from an initial estimate of 2.5 percent. Strong retail sales was also viewed as a signal that consumer expenditure will most likely print robust numbers.

We are looking at an immediate support of 1.4089 and 1.4040 subsequently, while resistance is at 1.4265 and 1.4350. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 1.4142 and rising.


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The pound is keeping its strength against most of its counterparts as it enters the week of the EU referendum. Bulls are protecting the sterling as buying interest continue to increase. GBP/USD has broken through 1.46 cents and has shown no solid sign of a downtrend.

The pair surpassed numerous resistance but bottomed at 1.4359 today. It then reached a high of 1.4672. The spot exchange is now at 1.4626, and can break into 1.47 levels in the near term with a switch in public sentiment. Polls show that voters are shifting their support towards the “Remain” campaign.

The MACD indicator is in neutral location and we are expecting further price increase as bears fail to take the pair.

The Aussie dollar is benefiting from a volatile sterling and euro as investors seek a safe heaven in the AUD. The RBA meeting minutes headlined the impetus this week. The Board implied the importance of a weak domestic currency to support Q2 and Q3’s GDP growth. However, the minutes did not have a significant impact on the AUD/USD.

Australia’s house price index printed surprising numbers, declining by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter’s 0.2 percent growth. Analysts expected a 0.8 percent rise in Q1.

Although AUD/USD is trading at 0.7487, the upsurge is limited due to easing commodity prices. The USD has been fairly quiet and is waiting for Yellen’s statement later on the semi-annual monetary policy report.

The first support can be found at 0.7454 and 0.7413 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7500 and 0.7550. The MACD indicator is positive location and the price is rising. However we are not expecting the AUD to break into the 0.75 level anytime today.

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