Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Trading plan for EUR/USD on November 15, 2021

Last week's decline of the EUR/USD pair was a strong impulse that exceeded the limits of the average move. This suggests that there is an 80% probability of continuing the downward impulse.

The current growth of this instrument should be used to find favorable prices to sell the instrument. An important pullback level is the 1.1494 mark. The probability to rise to this mark is 90%. This indicates that the search for a sell pattern should begin only after returning to this level. The determining resistance is the Weekly Control Zone of 1/2 1.1529-1.1521.

All of the above makes the area of 1.1494-1.1529 a supply zone. The upward movement of the EUR/USD pair to these levels will give us an opportunity to sell the instrument at favorable prices.

It is not profitable to make corrective purchases since the probability of updating the monthly low is above 80%. Any resistance level can be decisive. A bearish impulse is a strong movement that will take 3 to 5 days to break.

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 15, 2021

The yen looks in the direction of strengthening again. Last Friday, the yen traded in the range of 53 points, and did not dare to go above the signal level of 114.46, which opens the way for the price to the target range of 115.80-116.15.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reverses downward from its own zero line. This means that the price rally in the previous two days was a correction from the decline since October 20th. If the price moves below the support of the price channel at 113.15, it will confirm the price's intention to move further down. The bears' first target at 112.30 is the MACD line.

On the four-hour chart, the price is declining, but is above the indicator lines. A decline in the price under the MACD line, below the level of 113.44, will be the first serious sign of a price choice in a downward direction.

USDCAD bullish bounce | 16th Nov 2021

On the H4, with price moving above our ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will bounce from 1st support at 1.24935 in line with the graphical swing overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance at 1.26028 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and possibly to 2nd resistance at 1.27083 in line with our horizontal overlap resistance and 100% Fibonacci projection level. Alternatively, we may see price break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 1.24100 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and horizontal swing low support.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.24935
Reason for Entry:
graphical swing overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit: 1.26028
Reason for Take Profit:
horizontal overlap resistance
Stop Loss: 1.24100
Reason for Stop Loss:
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and horizontal swing low support

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 17, 2021

It looks like the euro is being pulled into a swamp. The euro continued its decline on Tuesday, started on the 10th and almost reached the target level of 1.1300. The potential for convergence reversal formation has dried up. Now two scenarios are possible: the price settles below the level of 1.1300 and continues to decline to 1.1170, or (due to the lack of convergence) makes a sharp return above the level of 1.1448 and lies in the mid-term sideways, about two weeks, in the range 1.1448-1.1572 with false exits in both sides during this lateral movement.

There is not a very strong sign of a reversal on the four-hour time scale - the sideways movement of the Marlin Oscillator. But, of course, this same technical element can turn into consolidation before further, albeit not very deep, decline.

Now, if we hope for a price reversal, we should wait for it to break above the MACD indicator line, above the level of 1.1448. Further growth, as already mentioned, is expected to be difficult, with lateral preliminary movement, with false signals.

US shares lower at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.58%

At the close in New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones lost 0.58%, the S&P 500 lost 0.26% and the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.33%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Apple Inc, which rose in price by 2.49 points (1.65%), to close at 153.49. Home Depot Inc rose 0.64% or 2.52 points to end trades at 394.85. Johnson & Johnson rose 0.38% or 0.61 points to close at 163.28.

The biggest losers were Visa Inc Class A, which fell 4.70% or 10.12 points to end the session at 205.06. Goldman Sachs Group Inc gained 2.86% or 11.54 points to end at 391.55, while Merck & Company Inc was down 1.80% or 1.51 points to close at around 82.60.

TJX Companies Inc, which gained 5.83% to 73.55, gained 3.25% to close at 1.089.01, and also General Motors Company shares rose 3.19% to end the session at 64.61.

The biggest losers were TechnipFMC PLC, which fell 7.31% to close at 6.720. APA Corporation shed 6.62% to end the session at 27.66. HollyFrontier Corporation was down 6.12% to 32.54.

The growth leaders among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 39.29% to 1.950, Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 30.96%, to close at 18.400, and Where Food Comes From Inc, which added 29.26% to end at 14.60.

The biggest losers were StoneCo Ltd, which fell 34.62% to close at 20.70. Odonate Therapeutics shed 29.39% to end the session at 2.330. Bit Brother Ltd was down 28.93% to 1.2650.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell (2,227) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,026), while the quotations of 138 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2637 companies fell in price, 1107 rose, and 182 remained at the level of the previous close.

General Motors Company shares rose to an all-time high, gaining 3.19%, 2.00 points, to close at 64.61. Home Depot Inc rose to an all-time high, rising 0.64%, 2.52 points to trade at 394.85. StoneCo Ltd fell to a 52-week low, down 34.62%, 10.96 points to end at 20.70. Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals Inc rose to a 52-week high, rising 30.96%, 4.350 points to trade at 18,400. Odonate Therapeutics fell to historic lows, down 29.39%, 0.970 points to trade at 2.330.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, was up 4.52% to trade at 17.11.

Gold Futures for December delivery was up 0.80% or 14.85 to $ 1,868.95 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude oil futures for January delivery fell 3.09%, or 2.46, to $ 77.28 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for January delivery fell 2.80% or 2.31 to trade at $ 80.12 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD was up 0.02% to hit 1.1321, while USD / JPY was down 0.61% to hit 114.12.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.12% at 95.793.

US stocks multi-directional at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.17%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones lost 0.17%, the S&P 500 gained 0.38% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.45%.

The leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones index at the end of today's trading were shares of Apple Inc., which rose in price by 4.38 points (2.85%), to close at 157.87. Home Depot Inc rose 2.79% or 11.00 points to end at 405.85. Walmart Inc rose 0.86% or 1.22 points to close at 143.16.

The biggest losers were Cisco Systems Inc, which fell 5.51% or 3.13 points to end the session at 53.63. American Express Company was up 1.89% or 3.40 points to end at 176.21 and 3M Company was down 1.70% or 3.09 points to 178. 77.

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index at the end of today's trading were shares of Macy's Inc, which rose in price by 21.17% to 37.37, Kohls Corp, which gained 10.62%, to close at 62.48, and shares NVIDIA Corporation rose 8.25% to end 316.75.

The biggest losers were Helmerich and Payne Inc, which fell 16.48% to close at 26.16. Nektar Therapeutics shares lost 8.48% to 11.76 in the day.

The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Longeveron LLC, which rose 135.27% to 6.870, Dicerna Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 78.71%, to close at 38.03, as well as Virtuoso Acquisition Corp, which were up 43.95% to end at 14.510.

The biggest losers were Amtech Systems Inc, which fell 26.61% to close at 11,200. Femasys Inc shed 20.53% to end the session at 5.11. Gracell Biotechnologies Inc. decreased in price by 22.12% to the level of 8.98.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell (2,145) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,111), while the quotations of 123 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2610 companies fell in price, 1133 rose, and 179 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, was up 2.81% to hit 17.59.

Gold Futures for December delivery was down 0.45% or 8.45 to $ 1,861.75 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude oil futures for January delivery rose 0.99%, or 0.77, to $ 78.32 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for January delivery rose 1.03% or 0.83 to trade at $ 81.11 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was up 0.46% to hit 1.1371, while the USD / JPY was up 0.15% to hit 114.25.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.30% at 95.537.

European equities tumble on news of Austrian lockdown

Earlier this week, Austria became the first European country to impose travel restrictions on people who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19. The republic has the lowest level of vaccination in the region, that is, 65%.

In addition, in Germany this week the record for the number of cases per day was broken - more than 65 thousand people. The country's health minister Jens Spahn did not rule out the possibility of introducing a nationwide lockdown. According to Spahn, the situation is now even more serious than it was a week ago.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 0.3% and amounted to 486.08 points.

The German DAX dropped 0.3%, the French CAC 40 - 0.4%, the British FTSE 100 - 0.5%. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX lost 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively.

The European Central Bank (ECB) should not rush to tighten monetary policy, even in the face of "unwanted and painful" inflation, said ECB President Christine Lagarde. The main factors driving inflation - supply chain problems and rising energy prices - will ease over the medium term, she said.

Retail sales in the UK in October rose from the previous month for the first time in six months - by 0.8%, but decreased by 1.3% compared to October last year, according to the National Statistical Office (ONS) of the country.

At the same time, the consumer confidence index in the country in November rose by three points compared to the previous month and amounted to minus 14 points, according to data from GfK NOP Ltd., which calculates this indicator. The indicator increased for the first time in four months.

Producer prices in Germany in October increased by 18.4% compared to the same month last year, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis). Growth was at its highest since November 1951.

British home improvement chain Kingfisher was down 4.4%. The company in the third quarter of this year reduced its revenue by 2.4%. However, the report marks a strong start to the fourth quarter.

Irish low-cost airline Ryanair Holdings lost 2.3%. The carrier is set to delist its shares from the London Stock Exchange on 20 December. Ryanair noted that the company's stock trading volume on the LSE does not justify the cost of maintaining the listing.

The banking sector lost the most at the end of trading: shares of Raiffeisen Bank International AG fell by almost 7%, Deutsche Bank AG - by 5%, Erste Group Bank AG - by 5.2%, UniCredit S.p.A. - by 4.5%.

The shares of the IT company Amadeus IT Group S.A. were also in the red. (-4.8%) and Wizz Air Holdings PLC (-4.6%).

The growth leaders in the Stoxx 600 were shares of the British online grocery chain Ocado Group (+ 6.8%), the Polish manufacturer of electronic check-in terminals InPost (+ 7.4%), the French luxury goods manufacturer Hermes International (+ 5.2% ), delivery service operators Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (+ 6.3%) and Deliveroo PLC (+ 4.4%).

European equity markets finished trading without a single dynamic

Traders have been closely monitoring the change in the number of cases in Europe after Austria last week decided to introduce a lockdown. German authorities have begun talking about the possibility of taking a similar measure due to record rates of morbidity per day. However, in Germany, so far, restrictions have been introduced only for those who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19. The French authorities over the weekend announced signs of a very rapid spread of the next, fifth wave of coronavirus infection.

The spotlight on Monday was the news that US President Joe Biden has nominated the current head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Jerome Powell for a second term in this post. This was announced by the White House. At the same time, Leil Brainard, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, was nominated for the post of his deputy. "I have full confidence that Chairman Powell and Dr. Brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs after having been" tested by fire "over the past 20 months, Biden said in a statement.

Powell's four-year term as head of the Fed expires in February 2022. The Senate vote is expected to proceed smoothly, with significant Republican support, and he will be confirmed in office before the current term expires, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 by the close of trading lost 0.13% and amounted to 485.46 points.

The German DAX fell 0.27%, the French CAC 40 - 0.1%. Britain's FTSE 100 climbed 0.4%, Italy's FTSE MIB rose 0.2%, and Spain's IBEX climbed 0.8%.

Italy's largest telephony operator Telecom Italia rose 30.3%, supported by news that US investment firm KKR & Co. wants to buy Telecom Italia for 10.8 billion euros.

The value of the world leader in wealth management UBS Group AG increased by 0.9%. The company's board of directors has nominated former Morgan Stanley president Colm Kelleher for the chairmanship.

German bank Deutsche Bank AG fell 0.4%. The bank has nominated the ex-head of the Dutch insurance company Aegon NV Alexander Winandts to the post of chairman of the supervisory board.

Hochschild Mining Plc shares plunged 27.2% on reports that Peruvian authorities will ban new mining and exploration operations in the region where the company's two mines are located, due to environmental concerns.

Capitalization of the Swedish telecommunications equipment manufacturer Ericsson AB decreased by 5.2%. The company will buy US cloud service provider Vonage Holdings Corp. for $ 6.2 billion

Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on November 24

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but the increase was limited because the MACD line was far from zero. But when a signal to sell appeared, the pair rose even though the MACD line was already in the overbought area. This continued for the rest of the day. The upward movement was around 15 pips.

Euro rallied yesterday, thanks to better-than-anticipated reports on manufacturing and service PMI in the Euro area. Meanwhile, the statements of ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos were ignored even though he mentioned the need for stricter inflation control.

The observed bullish momentum may continue today if the data on business conditions, assessments of the current situation and economic expectations come out stronger than the forecasts. ECB board member Fabio Panetta will also speak, and it could push euro higher if he mentions inflationary pressures

In the afternoon, US will release a report on Q3 GDP, which could raise dollar demand if the figure is revised for the better. Data on jobless claims, income and expenses will also be published, followed by the minutes of the recent Fed meeting. If the protocol does not indicate aggressive intentions of the committee members, demand for dollar will decline.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1253 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1299. Demand will increase if the Euro area reports very strong economic statistics.

Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1227, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1253 and 1.1299.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1227 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1185. Demand will decline if the situation with COVID-19 escalates. Weak data from Germany and strong statistics from US will also provoke a decrease in EUR / USD.

Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1283, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1255 and 1.1216.

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 26, 2021

Yesterday, the dollar against the yen could not withstand the pressure from technical factors and this morning fell to the signal level of 114.71 (October 20 high). After the price drops below this level, the USD/JPY pair may continue to move to the magnetic point at 113.20 - to the point of intersection of the price channel line with the MACD line. The price can overcome the target, since below it is the second target level of 112.74, which is desirable for the bulls to work out if they intend to advance further - to create a false downward movement.

To complete the bearish picture, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator does not reach the negative area. Perhaps this will happen when the price goes below the signal level.

The price almost touched the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Settling below it, as well as below the level of 114.71, will become a condition for further price movement to the downside. The Marlin Oscillator is already in the negative zone.

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 26, 2021

The euro has finally started to form a slight reversal from the target level of 1.1170. The miniature double bottom figure at the Marlin Oscillator on the daily scale has worked.

We consider the observed growth so far as an upward movement within the framework of the sideways movement of 1.1170-1.1300. The range, of course, can be extended, the other upper boundary is the 1.1375 level - the peak on November 18. In the next two weeks, this level may be reached by the MACD indicator line. Then either the downward trend will resume, or the price will break above the MACD line and outline a mid-term growth.

On the chart of the four-hour scale, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator has entered the positive area. The convergence is fully formed, but it remains to wait for the price to break above the MACD line, above 1.1250. This moment will confirm that the price is in a sideways trend.

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 29, 2021

The euro corrected upward by 120 points on Thursday and Friday last week, turning around without reaching the target level of 1.1170. Growth may continue to 1.1375 - the highs on November 18 or slightly higher towards the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator has grown sharply, now it can be in free roaming for some time, which will affect the price in a wide-range sideways movement. So far, this range is defined by the levels 1.1170-1.1375.

On the four-hour scale chart, the price managed to get above both indicator lines - above the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator has grown up high, but it is not yet in the overbought zone, so the price has the prospect of reaching the level of 1.1375. The recovery of the bearish trend will occur when the price moves below the MACD line, below 1.1235. But taking into account the situation on the daily scale, there is a significant likelihood of a false price drift under the MACD line, and then, after the target level of 1.1170 has been worked out, the price may again turn into corrective growth.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak tonight at a social event in New York, tomorrow in the Senate before the Banking Committee, and the day after tomorrow in the House of Representatives. Also tomorrow we will have John Williams, Richard Clarida and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. It may very well be that the risks associated with the emergence of a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus will be affected, and then the maturing expectations of 2 or even 3 rate hikes next year will disappear, and the euro will begin to recover its lost positions.

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 29, 2021

As a result of Friday's collapse in the stock markets (Euro Stoxx 50 - 4.74%, S&P 500 -2.27%), the yen strengthened against the dollar by 1.72% (197 points). The first bearish target was reached, the price slowed down on the embedded price channel line of the weekly timeframe. Now, according to the main scenario, the price will have to overcome the support of the MACD indicator line at 113.06, after which the 110.75 target will open in front of it - the lower line of the price channel. The Marlin Oscillator has forcefully entered the territory of the downward trend, divergence with the price is formed and confirmed. We look forward to further price reductions.

On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below both indicator lines - below the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator is already leaving the oversold zone, which tells us about the impending price correction before its further decline. The limit of such a correction is seen as the Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 114.30, which is the November 12 high (checkmark).