Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Forecast for AUD/USD on February 15, 2022

Over the past day, the situation on the Australian dollar has not changed. The price tried to reach the target level of 0.7065, but returned to its original positions. Now we are waiting for a second such attempt, the target of 0.7065 remains relevant. The 0.6950 level is a promising target, which coincides (at the moment) with the lower border of the descending channel of the Marlin Oscillator.

On the four-hour chart, just like a day ago, the price is gathering strength to overcome the support of the MACD line at the price of 0.7120. Consolidation below it will reopen the target level of 0.7065. The Marlin Oscillator is in a downward position.

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 15, 2022

Yesterday's decline in the euro amounted to 44 points. The lower daily shadow reached the MACD line, but there was no consolidation either under it or under the price level of 1.1300. Well, since the delay occurred in the range of the monthly consolidation of December 2021, then a sideways movement is likely for another one or two days. Overcoming yesterday's low (1.1280), which will correspond to the breakthrough of the MACD line, will open the target at 1.1060. A reversal of the euro into growth is possible, but the signal level is very high - this is the high of February 10 at 1.1495. Before crossing this level, strong chaotic movements in the range of 1.1300-1.1496 are very likely. But such movements in themselves will already be a sign of further growth of the euro, to the target range of 1.1700/22. Downward movement is expected to be smooth.

On a four-hour scale, the price is consolidating at 1.1300. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator also lies sideways. Price and oscillator in downward trend zones. A change in trends may occur when the price goes above the MACD line, above 1.1364. This will be a sign of its further movement towards 1.1496. But, based on the situation on the daily chart, such a local growth may turn out to be false. We are waiting for the development of the situation.

Bitcoin rises sharply and crypto investors buy lesser-known altcoins

On Tuesday, Bitcoin soared by 5% overnight and jumped above $44,000. According to CoinGecko, the world's largest aggregator of digital asset data, the capitalization of the flagship virtual asset rose to $833 billion in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin's main competitor, Ethereum, followed the trend of the crypto market's leader and rose by 6.73% to $3,112 in 24 hours.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $44,168.

At the end of last week, BTC rose to January's high of $45,800. Since then, the main cryptocurrency has been recovering from January's collapse to a low of $32,900 last seen in summer of 2021.

Experts say the main reason for the strong growth of the cryptocurrency market and other risky assets is the weakening of geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

On Tuesday, the market surged amid the Russian Defense Ministry's announcement that the Russian Armed Forces had returned from the exercises to their permanent home bases. At the end of last week, the White House said that Russian troops were concentrated on the border with Ukraine and claimed that Russia was preparing an invasion.

Since the beginning of 2021, the crypto market has been showing high correlation with other risky assets, in particular - with securities. Thus, due to the decline of global stock markets on Monday, Bitcoin also plummeted significantly, despite the high oscillation of quotations throughout the trading sessions. According to analysts of the crypto market, this situation occurs due to the growing institutionalization of the sector.

At the same time, many crypto-experts still perceive digital assets as a safe haven that can preserve its value in times of high volatility.

By the way, last week institutional investors, while continuing to invest in BTC and Ethereum, began to actively invest in little-known altcoins. Thus, Terra, Tezos and Cosmos tokens were among the favorites of the cryptocurrency market. As a result, traders invested $2.2 million, $0.9 million and $0.6 million in the above-mentioned assets, respectively. The cryptocurrency market added $75 million thanks to large institutional investors.

The highest share of $25 million was invested in BTC, while the leading altcoin - Ethereum - unexpectedly received $21 million from institutional investors, thus interrupting a two-month period of capital outflow.

US stock indices trade mixed

US stock indices closed mixed on Wednesday. The Dow Jones and the NASDAQ lost 0.16% and 0.11% respectively. The S&P 500 added 0.1%.

The indices showed 2 sessions of decline. However, the FOMC Minutes for January released yesterday installed optimism in markets. Traders are now trying to guess whether this is going to be a quarter or a half-percentage-point interest rate hike next month.

Easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine are adding optimism. Russian troops are returning to their permanent deployment sites after the exercises. Russia and Belarus began their joint military drills "2022 Union Resolve" to examine the readiness of its forces "suppressing and repelling external aggression," and countering terrorism. The military exercise does not pose any threat and its function is solely defensive, the parties said.

Continuing inflation is spooking investors. In the UK, the figure hit the 30-year high. In the US, retail sales jumped to 3.8% in January, much better than market forecasts of a 2% rise. On a yearly basis, US retail sales increased 13% in January, compared to a 16.7% rise in December.

Monetary policy, high energy prices, and global supply chain disruptions are among the forces driving inflation up. The Fed will have to resort to aggressive measures if inflation growth is not tamed.

Industrial production in the US increased 4.10% year-on-year in January. The figure had been expected to grow by 0.4%-05%. On a yearly basis, industrial production climbed 4.1%, following a 3.8% rise in December.

Uncertainty in the market is caused by various factors, including galloping inflation, monetary measures by regulators, the imbalance between supply and demand, as well as an uneven pace of the global economic recovery. The Russia-Ukraine conflict only adds fuel to the fire. All these factors, in turn, affect oil prices that have already soared to $93.66 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the earnings season in the US goes on. Kraft Heinz Co. incurred losses in Q4 2021. However, the adjusted figures showed higher-than-expected earnings. The company's stock added 5.6% as a result.

Roblox Corp. stock tumbled 26.5%, following disappointing Q4 earnings.

ViacomCBS plunged 17.8% after the publication of quarterly results below expectations.

Shopify Inc. lost 16%, following disappointing Q4 results, and despite higher-than-expected adjusted earnings.

The STOXX Europe 600 gained 0.1%. Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 2.2%. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index advanced 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.5% and China's Shanghai Composite added 0.6%.

US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.78%

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.78%, the S&P 500 fell 2.12%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 2.88%.

Walmart Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 5.35 points or 4.01% to close at 138.88. Quotes of Cisco Systems Inc rose by 1.48 points (2.72%), closing the session at 55.72. Coca-Cola Co rose 1.22 points or 2.00% to close at 62.12.

The biggest losers were Salesforce.com Inc, which shed 11.71 points or 5.53% to end the session at 200.03. Caterpillar Inc was up 4.37% or 8.90 points to close at 194.74, while 3M Company was down 3.57% or 5.50 points to close at 148.64. .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Newmont Goldcorp Corp, which rose 5.40% to hit 67.75, Sealed Air Corporation, which gained 5.00% to close at 67.35, and also shares of Walmart Inc, which rose 4.01% to end the session at 138.88.

The drop leaders were Albemarle Corp, which shed 19.91% to close at 197.02. Shares of LKQ Corporation lost 14.32% and ended the session at 47.64. Quotes of Tyler Technologies Inc decreased in price by 8.75% to 428.62.

Among the components of the NASDAQ Composite, gainers today were Inspirato Inc, which rose 648.38% to hit 92.65, Cepton Inc, which gained 343.51% to close at 42,000, and Anghami De Inc, which rose 161.36% to end the session at 28,880.

The biggest losers were Amplitude Inc, which shed 58.90% to close at 17.10. Shares of Guardion Health Sciences Inc lost 34.12% to end the session at 0.3700. Quotes of Yumanity Therapeutics Inc decreased in price by 28.81% to 1.26.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2388) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (861), while quotes of 96 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,037 companies fell in price, 788 rose, and 179 remained at the level of the previous close.

Shares in Salesforce.com Inc fell to a 52-week low, shedding 5.53% or 11.71 points to close at 200.03. Shares of Coca-Cola Co surged to an all-time high, up 2.00% or 1.22 points to close at 62.12. Shares of 3M Company fell to a 52-week low, down 3.57% or 5.50 points to close at 148.64. Shares of Inspirato Inc surged to a record high of 648.38% or 80.27 points to close at 92.65. Amplitude Inc shares fell to all-time lows, down 58.90% or 24.51 points to close at 17.10. Cepton Inc shares rose to an all-time high, up 343.51%, 32.530 points, to close at 42,000. Shares in Guardion Health Sciences Inc tumbled to a 52-week low, falling 34.12% at 0.1916 to close at 0.3700. Shares of Anghami De Inc surged to all-time highs, up 161.36%, 17.830 points, to close at 28.880. Shares in Yumanity Therapeutics Inc tumbled to their lowest point, falling 28.81% or 0.51 points to close at 1.26.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 15.73% to 28.11.

Gold futures for April delivery added 1.57%, or 29.30, to $1,900.80 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery fell 2.09%, or 1.96, to $91.70 a barrel. Brent oil futures for April delivery fell 0.06%, or 0.06, to $92.91 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.03% to hit 1.1363, while USD/JPY shed 0.01% to hit 114.92.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.14% to 95.828.

American stock indicators fell on Friday and at the end of the week

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 232.85 points (0.68%) to 34,079.18 points. Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 31.39 points (0.72%) - up to 4348.87 points. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 168.65 points (1.23%) to 13,548.07 points.

Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.9% over the week, S&P 500 - 1.6%, Nasdaq Composite - 1.8%.

Today the US markets are closed due to the holiday (Presidents' Day).

Shares of Shake Shack Inc. fell by 4.1% in trading on Friday. The American fast food chain halved its net loss in the fourth quarter of last fiscal year and increased revenue by more than a quarter, but did not issue a full-year forecast due to market uncertainty.

The cost of Roku Inc. shares. fell by 22%. The streaming equipment company's net income fell 65% in the fourth quarter, while its revenue forecast for the current quarter fell short of analysts' expectations.

Share price of Intel Corp. dropped by 5.3%. After the market closed on Thursday, the company released guidance for 2022 that came in better than market expectations. So, Intel predicts that its profit this year will be $3.5 per share on revenue of $76 billion, while the forecasts of experts polled by FactSet suggest earnings of $3.42 per share on revenue of $74.99.

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger noted that revenue growth will be moderate this year and will begin to accelerate from next year. By 2025-2026 they will increase to 10-12% per year and will remain double-digit in the future.

Deere & Co., which released its first financial quarter results on Friday, shed 3% despite the company's strong results. The US farm equipment maker's net income and revenue beat market forecasts last quarter.

Share price of JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased by 0.5%. The bank's chief financial officer, Jeremy Barnum, expressed confidence that JPMorgan could achieve a medium-term return on tangible capital (ROTCE) of 17%.

Barnum also noted that the bank's financial markets division's revenue is likely to fall by 10% in the first quarter, but this rate of decline will be lower than expected. In addition, he confirmed that JPMorgan plans to increase capex by $3.5 billion in 2022, including investments in technology projects.

From the perspective of investors, one of the most important consequences of the escalation of the crisis for the global economy could be a reduction in the supply of oil on the market. Russia is one of the world's largest producers of this type of raw material, and potential sanctions or any other restrictions could lead to an even more significant rise in prices, experts say.

Statistical data on the US housing market, published on Friday, were better than expected. US existing home sales increased 6.7% in January to 6.5 million homes on an annualized basis, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said. In December, resales decreased by 3.8% and amounted to 6.09 million, and not 6.18 million as previously reported. Experts on average predicted a decline of 1% compared to the previously announced figure.

On Tuesday, the stock market in Europe is steadily falling

From the very beginning of trading, European stock indices have been showing a decline of 3% amid the increasing tension of the situation in Eastern Europe.

Thus, the key British FTSE 100 index fell by 1.27% to 7,389.6 points, the French CAC 40 lost 1.94%, dropping to 6,656.98 points, and the German DAX sank by 2.29% to 1,4393.58 points.

The day before, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic. According to the new documents, the maintenance of peace in the DPR and LPR will be provided by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

In response, the President of the United States Joe Biden signed a sanctions decree stating that Russia's recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR poses a threat to national security and America's foreign policy interests.

On Monday, trading on European stock exchanges also ended in the red due to another aggravation of the geopolitical situation in eastern Europe. At the same time, at the beginning of the session, the leading stock indicators showed confident positive dynamics against the background of news that French President Emmanuel Macron offered the leaders of the United States and Russia a summit on security issues in Europe. The Presidents of both states accepted the proposal.

However, by the end of the trading day, stock indicators began to decline spectacularly against the background of the prospects of recognition of the independence of the DPR and the LPR by the Russian Federation.

In addition, the internal statistics of the region provided tangible support for the exchange indicator of European stock markets on Monday. Thus, according to preliminary estimates of experts, in February, the composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) of 19 eurozone countries rose to 55.8 points from January's 52.3 points. At the same time, analysts predicted an increase to 52.7 points.

The indicator of activity in the service sector this month jumped to a similar 55.8 points from 51.1 points in January.

The strengthening of the euro against the dollar had a tangible negative impact on the leading stock indices in Europe. So, yesterday, the euro exchange rate against the US currency increased by 0.15% to $ 1.134 per euro. The main support for the European currency was the same strong statistics for the region.

As a result, the Europe Stoxx 600 index of leading European enterprises lost 1.3%, closing at 454.81 points. The securities of the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca (+4%), the Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor (+2.9%), and the French operator of gerontological centers Orpea Group (+1.9%) reported the highest indicators as part of the Europe Stoxx 600 components.

The main outsiders were the shares of British online retailer THG PLC (-8.8%), mining company Polymetal International (-8.5%), and mobile operator Millicom International Cellular SA (-7.6%).

The German DAX fell by 2.07% to 14,731.12 points, the French CAC 40 lost 2.04%, dropping to 6788.34 points, and the British FTSE 100 sank by 0.39% to 7,484.33 points.

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GOLD for February 23

EUR/USD

Analysis:
The wave construction of the European currency chart, which has not been completed for today, has been reported since January 28. This rising wave has a reversal potential. If it is confirmed, the wave will give rise to a new short-term trend. The downward section of the last two weeks has not yet gone beyond the correction.

Forecast:
Today, the price is expected to move between the nearest oncoming zones. In the first half of the day, a downward course is more likely. At the end of the day or tomorrow in the area of settlement support, you can expect a reversal and a resumption of the price rise.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 1.1360/1.1390

Support:
- 1.1290/1.1260

Recommendations:
Euro trading in the near future can bring profit only in the form of short-term transactions in a small lot. Purchases will become possible after the appearance of confirmed reversal signals in the area of the support zone.

USD/JPY

Analysis:
The trend rate of the Japanese yen major in the last two years is set by the ascending wave algorithm. Quotes are currently located within the boundaries of the resistance zone of the senior TF. The unfinished section has been counting since November 30 last year. In the last two weeks, the price in sideways flat forms an intermediate pullback.

Forecast:
On the current day, the price is expected to move from the lower border of the price corridor to the area of the calculated resistance. At the European session, pressure on the support zone is not excluded, with a short-term puncture of the lower border.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 115.50/115.80

Support:
- 114.80/114.50

Recommendations:
Today, short-term purchases with a fractional lot from the support zone are possible on the yen chart. It is recommended to close deals at the first signs of an imminent reversal.

GOLD

Analysis:
The rising wave brought gold quotes to the area of the strong resistance of a large TF. Before continuing the rise, the structure needs to increase its wave level in correction.

Forecast:
In the next day, the price is expected to move sideways with a common downward vector. The preliminary target zone runs along the upper boundary of the large-scale support zone.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 1905.0/1910.0

Support:
- 1875.0/1870.0

Recommendations:
Short-term fractional lot sales are possible until the current decline is completed. It is optimal to refrain from entering the market of the instrument until the confirmed buy signals appear in the area of the support zone.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 24, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from February 23:
The European Union published the final data on inflation, which coincided with the preliminary estimate, which showed an acceleration in consumer price growth from 5.0% to 5.1%. This fact was already embedded in the prices, so it was ignored by the market. Now, the center of everyone's attention is the information flow.

February 24 economic calendar:
The United States GDP data is expected to be published today, where, according to forecasts, the second estimate should coincide with the first, which is unlikely to affect the market in any way.

At the same time, weekly data on jobless claims in the U.S. will be published, which are expected to decrease in volume. This is a positive factor for the U.S. labor market if expectations match.

Statistics details:

The volume of initial claims for unemployment benefits may be reduced from 248,000 to 235,000.

The volume of continuing claims for benefits may be reduced from 1.593M to 1.580M.

Time targeting

U.S. GDP - 13:30 Universal time

U.S. Jobless Claims - 09:30 Universal time

Information and news noise

The flow of information is developing so rapidly that it leads to a wave of speculation in the market. Therefore, the topic of Ukraine leads to sharp price changes in the entire financial sector, whether it is the currency or stock market. It is worth keeping track of the news flow and getting ready for new bursts of activity from speculators.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 24:
In this situation, traders are considering the subsequent recovery of the dollar, where the local low of the downward trend at 1.1121 is used as a guideline. As a variable point of support on the way of sellers, there is coordinate 1.1230, which can locally contain the ardor of speculators. Thus, the subsequent increase in the volume of short positions should be expected after the stable holding of the price below 1.1230 in a four-hour period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on February 24:
In this situation, a stable holding of the price below 1.3485 will lead to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Traders are considering a possible price movement towards the local minimum on January 27 at 1.3357.

An alternative scenario will arise in case of a reduction in the volume of short positions in the support area of 1.3485/1.3500. This will lead to a slowdown in the downward move and, as a result, to a price rebound.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 25/02/2022

Yesterday, the pound was losing its positions for almost the entire day. And this process was accompanied by incessant reports of fighting in Ukraine. Investors were panicking and running away from risk. After all, the war is going on in Europe. This means that the risks extend to the entire continent. After the fighting began to gradually subside and acquire a largely fragmentary character, a banal technical correction began on the market. Which, in general, is not surprising, given the scale of the previous decline. But we are talking about a temporary stop. After the start of the corrective movement, Western countries gradually began to voice the imposed sanctions, which in fact turned out to be not as terrifying as promised. However, Western countries immediately declared that this is only the first block of sanctions, and if military actions do not stop, additional ones will be introduced. So the sanctions themselves have not affected the market in any way so far. They will begin to affect us in the near future. And only in a negative way. The fact is that Russia can fend off most of them with retaliatory sanctions that will cause comparable damage to the economies of Western countries. So now the market is waiting for retaliatory actions from Moscow, which the Kremlin clearly hinted at last night. In other words, yesterday evening's growth of the pound is only temporary and is rather a respite before a new wave of decline.

The British currency against the US dollar in the wake of strong speculation locally lost more than 300 points in value over two trading days. This led to the renewal of the 2022 low and a strong overheating of short positions. As a result, there was a technical correction in the market.

The RSI technical instrument fell to 20.76 in a four-hour period, which signaled a high level of oversold pound.

Moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator indicate a downward trend. There is no intersection between MA lines.

Expectations and prospects:

In this situation, the correction is still taking place in the market, which led to a partial recovery of the British currency. The values of 1.3450 and 1.3480 can play as a possible resistance on the bulls' way. Thus, the downward move may eventually resume, supporting the general strengthening of dollar positions in the market. The largest increase in the volume of short positions is expected after keeping the price below 1.3350 in the daily period.

A complex indicator analysis gives a signal to buy in the short-term and intraday periods due to the corrective move. Technical instruments in the medium term indicate a downward move, signaling a sell.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 28, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from February 25:
The previous week ended interestingly. The information flow continued to put pressure on the market. As a result, speculative price jumps could be observed.

February 28 economic calendar:
Monday is traditionally accompanied by a blank macroeconomic calendar. Nevertheless, the massive information and news flow will continue to play on the nerves of speculators, which allows new leaps in the market.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 28:
A new trading week opened with a large gap, as a result of which the quote fell to the area of 1.1121. In this situation, a slight rollback is possible, partially restoring the euro against the price gap. At the same time, the downward cycle persists in the market, thus keeping the price below 1.1100 will lead to a prolongation of the downward trend.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on February 28:
In this situation, the stable holding of the price below 1.3350 increases the chances of sellers for a subsequent downward move. Traders consider the local low of the downward trend at 1.3160 as a possible prospect.

An alternative scenario of market development considers a partial recovery of prices relative to the emerging gap. This step will in no way disturb the general downward mood of speculators.