Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

US stock market closes lower, Dow Jones unchanged

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones remained unchanged at 0%, the S&P 500 fell 0.25%, and the NASDAQ Composite index remained unchanged at 0%.

Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, unchanged by 0 points (0%) to close at 133.42. Quotes of Boeing Co remained unchanged by 0 points (0%), closing the session at 209.03. Salesforce.com Inc. was unchanged by 0 points (0%) to close at 196.84.

The biggest losers were JPMorgan Chase & Co shares, which remained unchanged by 0 points (0%), closing the session at 152.14. Goldman Sachs Group Inc was unchanged by 0 points (0%) to close at 346.04, while Nike Inc was down 0 points (0%) to close at 142.95.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which was unchanged at 0% to 257.91, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, which was unchanged at 0% to close at 39.56, and shares of Enphase Energy Inc, which remained unchanged 0%, ending the session at 140.35.

The biggest losers were EPAM Systems Inc, which were virtually unchanged at 0% closing at 443.23. Shares of Viatris Inc remained unchanged at 0% and ended the session at 14.71. Dentsply Sirona Inc remained unchanged by 0% at 55.09.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Mullen Automotive Inc, which was unchanged at 0% to hit 0.63, Neurosense Therapeutics Ltd, which was unchanged at 0% to close at 1.57, and shares of China SXT Pharmaceuticals Inc, which remained unchanged 0%, closing the session at 0.1826.

The losers were VEON Ltd shares, which remained almost unchanged at 0%, closing at 1.3500. Shares of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc remained unchanged at 0% and ended the session at 2,740. Esports Entertainment Group Inc remained unchanged by 0% at 2.97.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1692) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1554), while quotes of 117 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1,936 stocks fell, 1,917 rose, and 222 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, remained unchanged at 0% at 27.75.

Gold Futures for April delivery added 0.63%, or 12.05, to $1,911.85 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures rose 3.68%, or 3.32, to $93.53 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 2.10%, or 1.95, to $94.94 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0% to 1.1312, while USD/JPY remained unchanged 0% to hit 114.74.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.10% to 96.112.

Trading plan for EURUSD for March 02, 2022

Technical outlook:
EURUSD dropped through fresh swing lows around 1.1090 levels in the early trading hours on Wednesday. The single currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.1115 mark at this point in writing and could print yet another low before finding support. Bulls remain inclined to be back in control anytime soon from current levels.

EURUSD has been showing a bullish divergence on the daily RSI with every low since 1.1186 as depicted on the chart here. It is a strong indication for a potential bullish reversal from here anytime soon. Immediate price resistance is seen at 1.1500 mark and a break higher will confirm a meaningful bottom in place.

EURUSD still remains bullish looking at the larger degree wave structure. The earlier rally between 1.0636 and 1.2350 has been retraced just below its fibonacci 0.618 levels as seen here. High probability remains for a bullish turn from here and push through 1.1500 and 1.1700 levels respectively.

Trading plan:
Potential bullish turn towards 1.1500 and 1.1700 against 1.1000

Good luck!

US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 1.79%

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.79%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.86%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 1.62%.

Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 9.78 points or 5.35% to close at 192.61. Quotes of Intel Corporation rose by 2.05 points (4.38%), closing the session at 48.87. Dow Inc rose 2.07 points or 3.62% to close at 59.20.

The losers were Visa Inc Class A, which shed 0.49 points or 0.23% to end the session at 208.48. Walmart Inc was down 0.17 points (0.13%) to close at 136.16, while Procter & Gamble Company was up 0.48 points (0.31%) to close at 153. .79.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were EPAM Systems Inc, which rose 16.08% to 245.17, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co, which gained 10.25% to close at 16.99. as well as shares of Las Vegas Sands Corp, which rose 10.17% to end the session at 44.40.

The biggest losers were Charter Communications Inc, which shed 3.99% to close at 570.99. Shares of Enphase Energy Inc shed 3.93% to end the session at 163.89. Dentsply Sirona Inc lost 3.46% to 52.48.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Ecmoho Ltd, which rose 56.65% to hit 0.37, Imperial Petroleum Inc (NASDAQ:IMPP), which gained 39.19% to close at 2 .06, as well as shares of Regulus Therapeutics Inc, which rose 35.56% to close the session at 0.31.

The biggest losers were SAB Biotherapeutics Inc, which shed 39.87% to close at 2.76. Shares of Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc shed 39.75% to end the session at 6.26. Quotes Puhui Wealth Investment Management Co Ltd fell in price by 36.08% to 0.84.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2431) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (796), while quotes of 119 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2597 companies rose in price, 1210 fell, and 230 remained at the level of the previous close.

SAB Biotherapeutics Inc stock tumbled to all-time lows, down 39.87% or 1.83 points to close at 2.76.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 7.74% to 30.74.

Gold futures for April delivery lost 0.67%, or 13.00, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures rose 7.71%, or 7.97, to $111.38 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 0.45%, or 0.52, to $115.08 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.02% to 1.11, while USD/JPY rallied 0.03% to hit 115.53.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.03% to 97.37.

USD/CAD: energy stays strong driver for Canadian dollar

By the end of the week, the Canadian dollar was in high spirits, despite the serious geopolitical conflict around Ukraine. The Canadian dollar rallied on the back of the looming energy crisis, but was unable to consolidate its gains.

This week, the buyers of the Canadian dollar, who took advantage of the decline of the USD/CAD pair by over 150 pips, were in a winning position. As a result, the pair updated the lows recorded at the end of January 2022 and broke support at 1.2600.

USD/CAD is currently near the lowest levels of January. Analysts are expecting a further slide. On March 4, USD/CAD was trading at 1.2698, approaching a level of 1.2700.

The ubiquitous surge in energy prices poses a threat to the European economy. Against this backdrop, a number of key currencies, particularly the European currency, have weakened markedly. Meanwhile, commodity currencies such as the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars have gained strength.

An energy boost helped the Canadian dollar to strengthen. USD/CAD fell from 1.2730 to 1.2595 amid an increase in oil exports. Notably, Canada is one of the largest oil exporters.

The price of oil on the global market is a major trigger for rising inflation. Earlier this week, the price of benchmark Brent added 5%, reaching $115 a barrel. This is the highest figure since 2011, experts emphasize. The bullish rally in the oil market was triggered by investor fears of a global supply shortage and inaction by OPEC+ countries, which have been curbing oil production growth as much as they can.

Traders are concerned about the potential impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the global energy sector. Many Western countries have refrained from imposing sanctions on the Russian energy sector, but some market participants have stopped buying Russian oil. Against the backdrop of disruptions to offshore supplies of Russian crude, global oil production could sag. On March 3, Brent was as high as $120 a barrel.

Another factor supporting the Canadian dollar was a 25 basis points interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. The authority stressed that the regulator was ready for further rate hikes at upcoming meetings. It should be noted that the Bank of Canada has raised its key rate for the first time in 3.5 years and has set a course to further tighten monetary policy. The measure is required to limit inflationary pressures, which have intensified against the backdrop of rising fuel prices. The geopolitical conflict around Ukraine will not prevent further rate hikes, the bank believes.

The Canadian regulator is the second of the Group of Seven (G-7) central banks to increase its rate since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the Bank of Canada, a greater reduction in monetary stimulus will be required in the near future. This is necessary to further normalize monetary policy as the risk of stronger consumer price increases remains this year.

According to analysts, the main drivers behind the strength of the Canadian dollar and the decline in the USD/CAD pair to 1.2500 are oil and monetary ones. The Bank of Canada's hawkish rhetoric contributes to the CAD's strength. The national economy and currency are supported by rising oil prices, as raw materials are the country's key export resource.

US stock market under pressure from Russia-Ukraine conflict

S&P 500

The US stock market plunged, while the US dollar advanced. The situation in Ukraine and strong data on US nonfarm payrolls.

Major US indices ended lower at the end of the week: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5%, the NASDAQ Composite slid by 1.7%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.8%.

S&P 500: 4,329

Friday's statistics on the US labor market for February turned out to be positive. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 678,000, beating expectations and notching the best month for jobs growth since July. However, this increase followed a fall in December caused by the Omicron outbreak in the US. This means that the labor market has somewhat recovered. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% from 4.0% in January. In general, the market has almost fully recovered to pre-COVID levels in terms of employment growth and the jobs level.

As for Russia's military actions in Ukraine, the country continues to attack in several directions. Its forces are trying to encircle Kyiv and Kharkov. In the south, the Russians have opened a land corridor between Crimea and the Russian border in the east. Russia is seeking to expand the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The West is discussing new sanctions amid Russia's ongoing attack on Ukraine. Now traders fear that further sanctions will directly limit Russian oil and gas shipments. According to the German authorities, they are ready for such a scenario.

Two rounds of Russia-Ukraine peace talks have yielded almost no results. A third round of negotiations between the parties is set to take place this weekend.

USDX: 98.48. The US dollar hit a new annual high on both the situation in Ukraine and strong data on the US labor market. The Fed is still on track to raise interest rates on March 16.

USD/CAD: 1.2725. The pair continues to trade within the range of 1.2600 - 1.2800

Conclusion: The events unfolding in Ukraine remain the main factor driving the market. However, US stocks seem to be ready to gain on any signs of easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.56%

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.56% to a 6-month low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.73%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.28%.

Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 13.30 points or 6.76% to close at 210.00. Chevron Corp rose 8.49 points or 5.24% to close at 170.53. Boeing Co rose 4.63 points or 2.74% to close at 173.80.

Shares of Coca-Cola Co were the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 2.42 points (3.96%), ending the session at 58.66. Procter & Gamble Company rose 3.96% or 6.05 points to close at 146.79 while UnitedHealth Group Incorporated shed 2.75% or 13.41 points to close at 473.46.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Enphase Energy Inc, which rose 10.82% to 175.99, SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which gained 10.41% to close at 328.91, and also shares of Quanta Services Inc, which rose 8.17% to close the session at 116.83.

The biggest losers were Seagate Technology PLC, which shed 9.51% to close at 90.57. Shares of ConAgra Foods Inc shed 8.22% to end the session at 30.93. Quotes of Intuitive Surgical Inc decreased in price by 7.98% to 269.32.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 203.31% to 1.00, Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 88.49% to close at 1.15. as well as shares of Westport Fuel Systems Inc, which rose 52.63% to end the session at 2.03.

The drop leaders were shares of Imperial Petroleum Inc, which fell 43.33% to close at 4.25. Shares of Inspirato Inc lost 42.78% to end the session at 15.25. Quotes of Digital Brands Group Inc decreased in price by 30.61% to 1.36.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1694) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1502), while quotes of 147 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2069 companies rose in price, 1727 fell, and 265 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.62% to 35.13.

Gold futures for April delivery added 3.12%, or 62.35, to $2.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for April delivery rose 4.44%, or 5.30, to $124.70 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 0.06%, or 0.08, to $129.27 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.00% to 1.09, while USD/JPY edged up 0.01% to hit 115.67.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.17% to 99.12.

Trading plan for USDJPY for March 10, 2022

Technical outlook:
USDJPY rallied through 116.19 highs during early hours of trade on Thursday. The wave structure still remains bearish until prices stay below 116.35 mark as bears remain inclined to be back in control from here. A break below 115.60 will confirm that a lower top is in place around 116.19 and that prices are dragging lower towards 114.40 at least.

USDJPY could drop towards 113.50 and 112.50 in the next few trading sessions. The potential double top reversal pattern will be confirmed on a break below 113.50 mark, going forward. Alternatively, the currency pair is drifting sideways within a rising wedge since 116.35 highs. If the alternate count unfolds, prices could break above 116.35 mark producing a thrust wave higher towards 117.50.

USDJPY needs to break below 114.40 initial support at least, to rule out any further upside or triangle breakout. Even if prices break higher above 116.35 mark, upside remains limited and bears might be back in control sooner than expected. Either way, expect a bearish reversal from here or from 117.00-50 mark.

Trading plan:
Potential drop through 109.00 against 118.50

Trading plan for Gold for March 10, 2022

Technical outlook:
Gold seems to have carved a meaningful top around $2,070 mark on Tuesday. The yellow metal has faced formidable resistance just ahead of the critical swing high around $2,075 in August 2021. Prices are expected to drop one more time through $1,940-45 mark before producing a meaningful pullback going forward.

Gold prices also surpassed the Fibonacci 1.618 extension seen around $2,010 levels as highlighted on the 4H chart here. The extended last leg rally came to an abrupt end around $2,070 as bears came back in control. The downside potential targets remain $1,880 and $1,780 in the medium term. Ideally, prices will remain below $2,070 mark.

Gold finds immediate price support around $1,940, followed by $1,880 and further; while resistance is not fixed at $2,070 mark respectively. A break below $1,940 will confirm that bears are back in control and the trend has reversed for long time. The yellow metal remains a good candidate to be sold on rallies thereafter.

Trading plan:
Potential drop to $1,940 in the near term.

US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.34%

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.34%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.43%, the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.95%.

Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 4.55 points or 2.74% to close at 170.82. Walmart Inc rose 3.17 points (2.27%) to close at 142.63. Dow Inc rose 0.83 points or 1.39% to close at 60.63.

Shares of Apple Inc became the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 4.43 points (2.72%), ending the session at 158.52. Procter & Gamble Company was up 2.57% or 3.83 points to close at 144.94, while Cisco Systems Inc was down 2.16% or 1.21 points to close at 54.71.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Halliburton Company, which rose 8.93% to hit 37.95, Baker Hughes Co, which gained 8.67% to close at 36.74, and Mosaic Co, which rose 7.74% to end the session at 62.19.

Etsy Inc was the biggest loser, shedding 5.35% to close at 136.98. Shares of EPAM Systems Inc lost 4.86% to end the session at 188.76. Quotes of MSCI Inc decreased in price by 4.69% to 465.26.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 138.10% to hit 1.50, AgriFORCE Growing Systems Ltd, which gained 102.37% to close at 3.42 , as well as shares of Hoth Therapeutics Inc, which rose 38.79% to close the session at 0.80.

The biggest losers were Trean Insurance Group Inc, which shed 51.70% to close at 3.40. Shares of Fossil Group Inc lost 37.51% and ended the session at 9.08. Quotes TherapeuticsMD Inc fell in price by 27.50% to 0.29.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1836) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1367), and quotes of 128 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,282 companies fell in price, 1,463 rose, and 253 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 6.84% to 30.23.

Gold futures for April delivery added 0.68% or 13.60 to hit $2.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures fell 2.64%, or 2.87, to $105.83 a barrel. Futures for Brent oil for May delivery fell 0.04%, or 0.04, to $109.15 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.05% to 1.10, while USD/JPY rallied 0.00% to hit 116.14.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.58% to 98.53.

Start of week in cryptocurrency market

The first cryptocurrency fell to $37,100 last week. This was followed by BTC's soaring to $42,500. Digital gold is trading at $39,100 and has a market capitalisation of $743 billion.

According to CoinGecko, the world's largest aggregator of virtual asset data, the total capitalisation of the crypto market fell 1.3% to $1.81 trillion in the past week.

In November 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high, soaring above the $69,000 mark. Since then, the value of the coin has fallen by more than 40%.

The unpredictable behaviour of the digital coin market has experts making the most unexpected forecasts about its future. For example, many crypto-enthusiasts believe Bitcoin will remain in a small value range in the near future. The reason for the main digital coin's indecision, in their view, remains the foggy prospects in the global economic and political situation. The serious conflict in eastern Europe and the high risks are preventing investors from making big investments in both the crypto market and US stock exchanges.

However, some experts believe that the current volatility in global markets can benefit bitcoin. For example, Steve Wozniak, a well-known American computer programmer, recently said that BTC will soon reach the $100,000 mark. Wozniak believes that the main incentives for the digital coin to take such a leap are the tense geopolitical situation, the constantly growing interest of investors in cryptocurrencies and a soaring inflation rate.

By the way, many analysts have repeatedly called Bitcoin one of the most inflation-resistant assets in the world.

In any case, the focus of this week's crypto market remains the US Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Russians coming to the United Arab Emirates are actively selling billions of dollars' worth of digital currency. Amid fears of their own assets being locked up, they are seeking to convert crypto into fiat money and then buying real estate in the UAE.

Earlier, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed on his Twitter account that he had no plans to get rid of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin. Musk explained his decision with data from an article on inflation in the international business newspaper Financial Times.

Musk went on to advise his social media followers to invest in physical assets. "It is generally better to own physical things like a home or stock in companies you think make good products, than dollars when inflation is high," he wrote.

Following the Tesla CEO's tweet, the value of Dogecoin instantly rose by 10%.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 15/03/2022

The European Union, as Josep Borrel said, seems to have really exhausted all possibilities for sanctions against Russia. The new sanctions package can be called purely symbolic, as it affects only a number of individuals and legal entities. In addition, Brussels intends to apply to the World Trade Organization for the suspension of the most favored nation regime in relation to Russia. But this point will have practically no effect, since Russia has not exported any goods to Europe anyway, except for raw materials, of course. So the introduction of protective duties, especially against the background of full-scale sanctions, will not affect the Russian economy in any way. It turns out that at least the European Union does not intend to further strengthen the sanctions confrontation, and it is quite possible that Russia will reciprocate. Which of course somewhat calms the market participants.

But another point is much more important. If you believe the statement of the official representatives of Ukraine, the negotiation process seems to have moved from a dead point, and some kind of peace agreement will be reached in the near future. At least, the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovych, said that it could be achieved within a week. This means that the fighting may soon stop, and with it the flow of refugees to Western Europe will stop. And after all, it is the fighting that is the main reason for the rather large-scale weakening of the pound. The very prospect of their termination in the near future already contributes to its growth, which we have been observing since yesterday. If the situation does not change, and will move in this direction, then this growth will continue.

The GBPUSD currency pair approached the level of 1.3000 with surgical precision, where the downward movement slowed down. The psychological level puts pressure on bears, but in this situation it is considered by traders only as a variable foothold on the path of a downward trend.

The RSI technical instrument moves in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator in a four-hour period, which indicates a high interest of traders in short positions. RSI D1 is in the oversold zone, which is due to the intense downward movement and the important price level of 1.3000.

Alligator H4 and D1 indicate a downward trend. There are no intersections between MA moving lines.

Expectations and prospects:

Despite the high desire of traders to continue to form a downtrend, the level of 1.3000 has a negative impact on the volume of short positions. This may lead to a slowdown in the downward cycle and, as a result, a price pullback.

A complex indicator analysis gives a signal to buy in the short term due to a price rollback. Indicators in the intraday and medium-term periods signal a sale, due to a downward trend.