Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Trading signal for GOLD (XAU/USD) onDecember 29 - 30, 2022: buy above $1,802 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) was trading around 1,806.05 above the 21 SMA and below the key resistance of 6/8 Murray located at 1,812.50.

The positive sentiment in the markets triggered by the news from China lifted the market's spirits, thus boosting the demand for gold. But it could last a short time due to technical reasons. In the daily chart, gold is very overbought and it is expected that there will be a fall in the short term to the levels of 1,750 and 1,720.

A return below 1,800 would make gold vulnerable to a decline to test the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1,794. A sharp break below could trigger further losses to the area of 1,781 (5/8 Murray). If bearish pressure prevails, it could reach the next support at 1,773 (200 EMA).

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that gold could resume its bullish cycle if it trades above 1,802.50 (21 SMA). The next target is at 1,812 and the strong resistance area is at 1,823.

Conversely, in the event that the XAU/USD pair trades below the psychological level of 1,800 we could expect a continuation of the bearish movement and it could reach 1,772 (200 EMA).

The eagle indicator is giving a positive signal but has technically lost its bullish momentum and any technical bounce is likely to be seen as an opportunity to sell. If in the next few hours, gold fails to consolidate above 1,812, and while the price of gold is trading below this level, it could be seen as an entry point to sell.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy gold above 1,802 (21 SMA) with targets at 1,812 and 1,823. In the event that gold fails to break the resistance of 1,812, it will be seen as a signal to sell with targets at 1,795.

European stocks lower on New Year's Eve trading​​​​​​​

On the last trading day of 2022, the leading stock indices of Western Europe were balancing in the red zone after a strong growth the day before. Those that were sharply trading lower were stocks in the consumer, utilities and health care sectors.

In addition, the volume of trading on European stock exchanges on Friday was lower compared to the previous days of the week in the run-up to the New Year. The stock markets of England and Germany had a shortened session, and on Monday trading floors will be closed due to the New Year celebration.

At the time of writing, the pan-European Stoxx 600 fell by 0.5% - to 428.21 points.

Earlier, Bloomberg, the leading American provider of financial information, reported that the STOXX Europe 600 indicator ended the current year with a drop of more than 12%. This will be the sharpest decline for European equities since 2018, and its main reasons are the negative consequences of the situation in Ukraine, the global energy crisis, as well as the permanent acceleration of inflation and decisive actions of the world central banks to combat it.

French CAC 40 fell by 0.71%, German DAX dropped by 0.68% and British FTSE 100 - by 0.21%. At the same time, since the beginning of the current year, CAC 40 fell by 8.7%, DAX - by 11.9% and FTSE 100 increased by 1.4%.

Leaders of the fall
The share price of the German energy company Uniper SE plummeted by 4.3%.

German biopharmaceutical company MorphoSys AG fell by 3.8%.

The share price of the Swiss chain of pharmacies Zur Rose Group AG fell by 2.9%.

British oil giant Pantheon Resources PLC collapsed by 43.4% after the company's pretax loss for fiscal 2022 almost doubled.

Market Sentiment
On Friday, European investors continued to analyze news about easing of coronavirus restrictions in China. The Chinese government has announced that the country will drop its Covid-19 quarantine requirement for passengers arriving from abroad starting January 8. At the same time, a negative test for coronavirus will be required to enter the state.

In addition, Beijing authorities reduced the level of surveillance of the coronavirus, rejecting the legal basis for the introduction of enhanced infection control measures.

In response to this move by Chinese authorities, some states have tightened requirements for visitors from the PRC. The United States, for example, is introducing mandatory testing for people arriving by air from China as of Jan. 5.

Traders around the world have recently been seriously concerned about China's "zero-Covid" policy, as new and existing restrictive measures in China have had a negative impact on the country's economic activity.

At the end of November, mass protests erupted in Shanghai against China's stringent Covid restrictions. The police dispersed protesters with gas canisters.

After that, markets began to hope that mass protests in Chinese cities would force local authorities to loosen regional restrictions. Fresh news from China sent a welcome positive signal that the world's second-largest economy could return to robust growth.

On Friday, European investors were also analyzing data for the countries of the region. Thus, according to new data from the Nationwide Building Society, UK property prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in December against November's 4.4%.

Meanwhile, Spain's statistical office INE reported the country's annual inflation rate fell to 5.8% in December of 2022, the lowest since November 2021. Thus, in the outgoing month consumer prices rose by 5.6% against the November increase of 6.7%. At the same time, analysts had forecasted inflation at 6.5%.

Trading results the day before
On Thursday, the leading stock indices of Western Europe closed in the green zone. However, at the beginning of the trading session, the market was steadily pessimistic, caused by investors' concerns about the permanent acceleration of inflation and tight monetary policy of the world central banks.

As a result, the pan-European Stoxx 600 rose by 0.68% - to 430.35 points.

The French CAC 40 gained 0.97%, the German DAX gained 1.05% and the British FTSE 100 gained 0.21%.

Those that were sharply trading lower were stocks in oil and gas and consumer companies.

The share price of European oil corporations British Petroleum and Shell dropped by 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively. Companies were under pressure due to the sharp fall in world prices for crude oil (by more than 1%).

The share price of key consumer companies - British Unilever and British American Tobacco - fell by 0.6%.

Swiss drugstore chain Zur Rose Group AG grew by 5.2%.

The share price of British online retailer THG Plc increased by 3.2%.

European airlines easyJet PLC, Wizz Air Holdings Plc and Deutsche Lufthansa AG fell by more than 2%.

German online retailer of shoes, fashion and beauty Zalando SE dropped 1%.

The share price of the German truck manufacturer Daimler Truck Holding AG decreased by 0.8%.

Adidas AG, a German manufacturer of clothing, footwear and accessories, decreased by 0.6%.

The share price of Evraz Plc, a British metals and mining company, plummeted by 12.6%.

British company Ocado Group Plc, which licenses grocery technology, sank by 1.5%.

TThe share price of German energy company Uniper SE soared by 10.9%.

German air carrier Deutsche Lufthansa AG dropped by 3.3%.

An important factor supporting the stock market in Europe on Thursday was a strong performance of the U.S. stock exchanges. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.5%, the S&P 500 soared 1.75% and the NASDAQ Composite gained 2.59%.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 09/01/2023

To put it mildly, the labor market data in the United States was fantastic. Especially when you look at the unemployment rate, which fell from 3.6% to 3.5%. Especially since the previous data was revised up from 3.7%. And it was projected to remain unchanged. In addition, 223,000 new jobs were created outside of agriculture. That's certainly not much more than the forecast of 220,000, but it's still a bit more to keep the unemployment rate stable. In other words, there's all the makings for further job growth. Although unemployment continues to be at record lows. But the interesting thing is that the dollar has been getting cheaper. It's all about the incredibly good macro data. Oddly enough, they show a clear overheating of the labor market. Especially since the United States is actively pursuing a policy to lure industrial production to its territory.

And the question arises - where will companies get workers for all these companies with such a high level of employment? And in general, an overheated labor market can lead to a sudden and steep rise in unemployment and with it a catastrophic drop in investment. Not to mention losses for the companies themselves. After all, companies invest in business expansion and job creation, and when they can't find employees then the investment doesn't pay off. So companies have to write off losses and cut costs to at least compensate for the negative consequences. This prospect is the reason why the dollar is weakening.

The unemployment rate (United States):

Nevertheless, this situation creates prospects for the dollar's growth in the long term. The fact is that the monetary authorities have only one tool to fight overheating of the labor market - an increase in interest rates. In other words, although the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hikes, there is no question of its reduction in the near future. Most likely, the cycle of rising interest rates in the United States will continue through 2023. While the European Central Bank is likely to begin to gradually reduce its rate as early as the middle of this year.

The pound appreciated by more than 250 points against the US dollar on Friday. As a result, it won back all the decline since the beginning of the month, and the quote was above 1.2100. It is worth noting that we have a sell-off in dollar positions across the Forex market.

The H4 RSI has crossed the middle line of 50 upwards. This indicates a high demand for long positions on the pound.

Moving averages on the H4 Alligator have changed direction from downward to upwards. This is a signal to buy.

Outlook

In this situation, the upward move may persist due to the speculative sentiment of traders. I expect a further increase in long positions once the price stays above 1.2150 on the four-hour chart.

Take note that such rapid price changes often lead to excessive trading positions. For this reason, a technical pullback should not be ruled out.

Based on complex indicator analysis, there is a buy signal for short-term and intraday trading because of the upward movement.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading plan for beginners on January 10, 2023

Details of the economic calendar on January 9
The data on unemployment in the EU did not affect the market in any way, as figures remained at the same level.

The eurozone unemployment rate remains at 6.5%, coinciding with the estimates.

Analysis of trading charts from January 9
The EURUSD currency pair reached 1.0760 during the inertial movement from the 1.0500 support level. As a result, the local high of the upward trend from October last year was updated.

During the rapid inertial course, the GBP/USD rose to the value of 1.2200, despite the fact that a few trading days ago, the quote was around the 1.1850 mark. The overbought condition is obvious, but speculators ignore this technical signal.

Economic calendar for January 10
No important statistical data are scheduled to be published today.

For this reason, investors and traders will monitor the incoming information flow. At 14:00 UTC, the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled.

EUR/USD trading plan for January 10
In this situation, the inertial move still takes place in the market, where speculators ignore technical signals about the overbought euro. Updating the local high of the previous day may bring the price closer to the level of 1.0800. As for the corrective movement, this scenario will be considered by traders in case the price declines below 1.0700.

GBP/USD trading plan for January 10
In this situation, there is a slight pullback, during which the quote returned to the level of 1.2150, while the upward mood is still maintained among traders. For this reason, the return of the price above the value of 1.2200 may restart the inertial move.

At the same time, keeping the price below 1.2130 in a four-hour period may be the first technical signal for the formation of a full-size correction in the direction of the 1.2000 psychological level.

What's on the charts
The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low.

Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance.

Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future.

The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 11/01/2023​​​​​​​

In just a couple of days, the pound gained almost 350 points, and a local correction was justified. However, despite a completely empty macroeconomic calendar, which usually promotes all sorts of bounces, the British currency lost only 50 points. And it proves that investors don't really believe in the dollar's growth potential right now. At least, in the short-term perspective. Moving forward, I don't think the dollar is going to strengthen. Most likely, the market will continue to stand still. And it's been staying in the same place since the middle of yesterday. In fact, the macroeconomic calendar is also absolutely empty today. The market obviously needs a good reason for it to move in any direction. The pound can't grow because it's overbought, and there's no particular reason for it to fall.

The pair's upward momentum has slowed down around 1.2200. As a result, there was a pullback of about 90 pips, which is considered as a process of regrouping trading forces.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the upper area of 50/70, which reflects traders' interest in long positions on the euro.

On the four-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to the upward cycle.

Outlook

The current pullback has smoothly turned into stagnation along 1.2150, which may support new price surges. Using technical analysis, I expect long positions on the pound to grow even more once the price stays above 1.2200. In this case, the subsequent upward movement will resume.

As for the bearish scenario within the corrective move, the price should stay below 1.2130 over the four-hour period.

Based on complex indicator analysis, there is a variable signal for short-term and intraday trading due to a flat. In the medium term, there is still a buy signal.

Having a good understanding of both types of analysis will enable traders to make better informed decisions, spot potential trade opportunities and plan the trade accordingly. Having the right analysis tool and a good broker will also helps in this process, as Tickmill does provide various research and analysis resources for its traders to use.

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 12/01/2023

The market has been stagnating for a couple of days and only the US inflation report, which will be released today, can get it out of this state. As a matter of fact, investors are waiting for it. Especially in the light of Friday statements of representatives of the Federal Reserve, which basically boils down to a slowdown in the growth of interest rates. In principle, the US central bank did not hide the fact that this year it will complete the cycle of rate hikes. And it's clear that before that, from meeting to meeting the growth of interest rates will be reduced. But everyone was shaken by the statement that during the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting the Fed funds rate may be raised by only 25 basis points. This caused the dollar to weaken.

In this regard, inflation forecasts are highly important. The fact is that the main forecast remains unchanged, and the growth rate of consumer prices should slow down from 7.1% to 6.7%. However, judging by the market behavior, as well as the nature of reports, traders might assume that events will develop according to the most optimistic scenario, and inflation will slow down to 6.5%. Such forecasts do exist, but they are not mainstream. And this creates an interesting perspective. Traders may believe in a broader decline in inflation, and when they see a slightly lesser slowdown, sentiment will change dramatically, and the dollar will begin to recoup its losses as investors drastically revise their expectations, and begin to assume a 50-point reduction in the rate is coming instead of 25. That will be the start of the correction. If inflation actually slows down more, then the potential for the euro's further growth is rather limited since it is excessively overbought.

Inflation (United States):

The EURUSD pair, after briefly being stuck in the 1.0710/1.0760 range, has finally crossed its upper limit. As a consequence, the upward cycle continued.

The RSI technical indicator is moving within the overbought zone, indicating that long positions on the euro are way above its intrinsic or fair value. It is worth noting that the lack of a full-size correction in the market suggests that traders are ignoring the technical signs of it being overbought.

On the four-hour and daily charts, the Alligator's MA are headed upwards, which corresponds to the current cycle.

Outlook

Keeping the price above 1.0760 will eventually lead to a breakdown of the subsequent resistance level of 1.0800. In turn, this step allows for the subsequent formation of a medium-term uptrend in the euro.

As for the bearish scenario, traders will consider this option in case of a reversal, with the price moving below 1.0700. In this case, a correction is possible.

In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term, intraday and medium-term periods, there is still a buy signal because of the upward cycle.

The Fed promises to continue raising the rate, but the market no longer believes

Today, January 12, Thursday, the US dollar dropped significantly once more. Let me remind you that last Friday, reports on the unemployment rate, the labor market, and business activity were released in the United States for the first time in 2023. 223 thousand people were employed, the unemployment rate declined to 3.5%, and the ISM index unexpectedly went below the 50.0 level. Generally speaking, the only ISM index that is detrimental to the dollar is the one for the services sector. The remaining news is all favorable in my opinion, but the demand for the US dollar is still down significantly. The demand for the dollar was steady at the start of this week, but today data on inflation in the United States was released, which did not appear to startle the market but sparked a strong reaction. The market anticipated a decrease in the consumer price index of 6.5% y/y, which exactly happened. The market also anticipated a 5.7% y/y decline in the base index. There were no additional significant occurrences today.

It turns out that although both results from the same report were almost exactly in line with predictions, the demand for US dollars nonetheless decreased, preventing both instruments from starting (or continuing) to build the correction portion of the trend. It is vital to note that the subsequent activities of central banks, in this case, the Fed, are more significant than inflation itself. Michelle Bowman, one of the FOMC's voting members, recently predicted that the rate will increase because inflation is still too high. At a Florida event, Bowman stated, "I believe we can cut inflation without a big economic slump as the jobless rate continues at its historic lows. Other FOMC members had previously argued for the continuation of monetary policy tightening. However, the market appears to be responding that all interest rate increases have already been fully absorbed by the US dollar's constantly declining demand. The rate is anticipated to climb to a maximum of 5.5% by the market, though it may be lower following today's inflation report

It is important to keep in mind that the demand for the currency is supported by a tighter monetary policy. Therefore, as expectations for the rate decline, so does the demand for the currency. Therefore, from a wave perspective, I continue to anticipate the development of downward trend sections. Despite their significant length and complexity, the market indicates that it is willing to build upward segments. Only figures on British GDP, European and British industrial production, and the American University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index are available this week. The recession in the UK has reportedly already started, thus the most significant GDP data is likely to show a decrease. If this is the case, it would be difficult to predict that the GDP will increase over a single month.

I conclude that the upward trend section's building is about finished based on the analysis. As a result, given that the MACD is indicating a "down" trend, it is now viable to contemplate sales with targets close to the predicted 0.9994 level, or 323.6% per Fibonacci. The potential for complicating and extending the upward portion of the trend remains quite strong, as does the likelihood of this happening.

The building of a downward trend section is still assumed by the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. According to the "down" reversals of the MACD indicator, it is possible to take into account sales with objectives around the level of 1.1508, which corresponds to 50.0% by Fibonacci. The upward portion of the trend is probably over, however, it might yet take a lengthier shape than it does right now.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading plan for beginners on January 17, 2023

Details of the economic calendar on January 16
The economic calendar was traditionally empty on Monday. No important reports were published in the EU, the United Kingdom, and the Unites States.

Martin Luther King Day was celebrated in the United States. For this reason, banks, funds, and stock exchanges were closed.

Analysis of trading charts from January 16
EURUSD reached the 1.0800 level during the pullback stage, where there was an amplitude move within 70 pips. In fact, the market remains in an upward mood, otherwise there would be a full-blown correction.

GBPUSD reduced the volume of long positions during the price convergence with the 1.2300 resistance level. As a result, there was a pullback of about 100 pips, which eventually turned into a stagnation.

Economic calendar for January 17
Since the opening of the European session, data on the UK labor market have been published, which came out without any fundamental changes. Unemployment in the country remained at 3.6%. Employment increased by 27,000, while jobless claims rose by 19,700.

Expectations coincided with the forecast; there is no reaction in the market.

EUR/USD trading plan for January 17
Presumably, the 1.0800/1.0870 amplitude will focus the market on itself only for a while. As a result, the stagnation will end with an impulse emanating from the stagnation, which will indicate one of the possible scenarios.

The first scenario considers the prolongation of the current upward cycle in the market in case of a stable holding of the price above the value of 1.0880 in a four-hour period.

The second scenario considers the transition from a pullback stage to a full correction if the price holds below 1.0770 in a four-hour period.

GBP/USD trading plan for January 17
Stagnation possibly serves as a process of accumulation of trading forces, which can become a lever for new price jumps. The 1.2150 level serves as a variable support, while the resistance is at 1.2300.

In this situation, cardinal changes will occur only after the price stays outside one or another control level for at least a four-hour period.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 19/01/2023​​​​​​​

UK inflation fell from 10.7% to 10.5% in December, and the pound gradually increased. Inflation eased for the second month, and it hints at the possibility of a more subdued increase in the Bank of England's interest rate. And these very expectations in regard to the Federal Reserve's actions just recently were the reason why the dollar is getting weaker. Moreover, during the previous meeting, two members of the Board argued for rate cuts. So, everything indicates that not only will the US central bank complete its cycle of interest rate hikes soon, but that the BoE could follow suit. And this means there is no reason for the pound to rise substantially. Investors haven't probably realized this fact yet.

Inflation (UK):

But the main reason why the dollar weakened during the European session was the latest US reports, forecasts for it were also negative. In December, U.S. retail sales softened 1.1% and industrial production fell 0.7%. So some pessimism about the dollar was justified. Especially when it became known that previous data had been revised downward. Retail sales climbed 6.0% and industrial production to 2.2%. And if you look at the final industrial report, things got even worse as the growth rate slowed to 1.6%. But the dollar started to rise after the data was released. It's all about retail sales, which remained unchanged with the revision. And this report is significant because it best reflects the state of consumer activity, which is the engine of economic growth. And the data turned out to be significantly better than expected, which of course will inspire confidence that the United States can avoid a recession.

Retail Sales (United States):

First of all, due to the inflationary dynamics in the UK itself, the pound's growth potential is extremely limited. Investors will have to gradually start changing their positions, not in favor of the British currency. But now it has nowhere to go today either. The total number of unemployment claims in the US may grow by 8,000. Of course, the growth itself isn't very significant, but the forecasts are still negative, so there is no reason for the dollar to rise, at least for today. Hence, the market is likely to consolidate around the current values.

Unemployment claims (United States):

GBPUSD crossed the resistance level of 1.2300. As a consequence, the upward momentum gave the pound the opportunity to come close to the December high. The subsequent swing was expressed in a pullback, indicating a decline in the volume of long positions.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator was in the overbought area, above the 70 line. This occurred when GBP crossed 1.2300 and approached the December high. Subsequently, there was a price pullback, which is expressed on the RSI indicator by its return below 70.

On the four-hour and D1 chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upward, which corresponds to the general bullish sentiment.

Outlook

The pullback stage brought the quote back to 1.2300, which, taking into account the current strengthening, is considered as the least possible price change. For the pullback to pass the stage of correction, the quote should return below 1.2250 on the four-hour chart. In this case, GBP could reach 1.2150.

However, staying above 1.2300 may eventually restart long positions in the pound, and it could update the local high of the upward cycle.

Comprehensive indicator analysis suggests a price pullback for the short-term and intraday trading. While the bullish sentiment is still valid for the medium term.