Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The main events by the morning: June 18

The 1992 agreement on the avoidance of double taxation with Russia has been suspended. This was stated by the US Treasury Department. There is no exact information yet, but the measure may affect the W8-BEN form, which reduces the tax on Russian dividends from companies from the United States from 30% to 13%. The suspension will take effect on August 16, 2024.

Sanctions on the Moscow Stock Exchange and its subsidiaries will not have a significant impact on the purchase by non-residents of blocked foreign securities of Russians, the Investment Chamber said. In fact, NSD was already under sanctions.

Foreign flowers may disappear from the Russian market. Russia plans to impose restrictions on the import of flowers from unfriendly countries due to the Rosselkhoznadzor's claims to the quality of their products.

Putin arrived in North Korea today. The Russian president ordered the signing of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with the DPRK.

Beer exports from the European Union to Russia are resuming. In April, the volume of beer exports to Russia amounted to 23 million euros, which is the highest since August last year.

In the context of the recovery of global coal exports, Russia is losing its share in this market. According to the calculations of the Price Index Center, Russian exporters already account for less than 14.6% of global supplies, compared to 17.1% in 2021.
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XAU/USD. Analysis and forecast. The price of gold has reached a new weekly high

Gold has updated its weekly high today, aiming to break through the resistance of the 50-day simple moving average SMA. Incoming macro data from the US point to signs of easing inflationary pressures and a slowdown in the US economy, increasing speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. This is a key factor stimulating flows towards the unyielding yellow metal.

Plus, geopolitical tensions and renewed political uncertainty in Europe provide additional support for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, the Fed took a more hawkish stance last week, and policymakers continue to favor one rate cut in 2024. A good jump in US Treasury bond yields is also helping to increase demand for the US dollar, which may deter further price growth of the precious metal.

From a technical point of view, before opening new buy positions, bulls should still wait for a steady strengthening beyond the 50-day simple moving average SMA, which is currently around $2,345. The subsequent upward movement will mean that the recent corrective decline has exhausted itself, and the price will move beyond the $2,360 zone – into the supply zone, on the way to the $2,400 mark, with some intermediate obstacle in the $2,388 area. The momentum may extend further towards the historic high reached in May.

On the opposite side, the $2320-2325 area protects against an immediate decline before the round level of $2300. Some subsequent selling below this level and the $2,285 support will be seen as a new trigger for the bears, paving the way for a resumption of the recent pullback from the all-time high. Gold will then be ready to accelerate its decline to the $2,250 level before dropping completely to the $2,220 support and the round $2,200 level.
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From Record to Bust: How Chips and the Economy Shaped the S&P 500

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower Thursday as market leader Nvidia shares pulled back from earlier gains. Investors were poring over fresh economic data and Federal Reserve statements to see when interest rates might be cut this year.

Earlier, the S&P 500 hit 5,500 for the first time in history, in line with many brokerage firms' year-end forecasts. The Nasdaq ended a seven-day run of record closing highs.

Stocks on Wall Street retreated from early record highs despite gains in overseas benchmarks. U.S. Treasury yields rose on weak economic data and expectations of more bond issuance next week.

The dollar gained ground as U.S. yields rose, widening the gap with non-dollar rates that have been trending lower. It reached 160 yen, prompting Tokyo to intervene in late April to support its currency.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only major index to hold on to gains. The S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) extended a streak of intraday record highs before falling, with the Nasdaq ending a seven-session run of record highs at the close.

Disappointing housing starts and building permits data, as well as a report on jobless claims, suggest a gradual cooling in the labor market, confirming that the Fed's restrictive policies are having the intended effect.

"Weaker-than-expected economic data suggests that high and long-term interest rates are achieving the Fed's goals," said Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments in New York. "These signs of a slight slowdown in the economy will be welcomed by the Fed as they consider lowering interest rates."

That, coupled with the dovish sentiment expressed by the Bank of England, which has held off on easing ahead of the upcoming U.K. general election, and the Swiss National Bank's rate cut, has created room for the Fed to maneuver on the timing of its rate cuts.

Wall Street's rally was fueled by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, led by chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O), which recently became the world's most valuable company by market capitalization. However, despite the morning gains, Nvidia shares fell about 2%.

Nvidia shares fell 3.54% after the morning gains. The chipmaker overtook Microsoft to become the world's most valuable public company on Tuesday.

Dell (DELL.N) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) shares also fell 0.42% and 0.26%, respectively, after initially rallying on news that Elon Musk's AI startup had won server orders.

The number of Americans filing new jobless claims fell last week, but the latest data showed the total number of people receiving benefits reached its highest level since January, suggesting the U.S. labor market is continuing to cool.

Separately, data showed that U.S. single-family home starts fell in May, reflecting continued high mortgage rates.

The energy (.SPNY) and utilities (.SPLRCU) sectors were the biggest gainers among the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, rising 1.86% and 0.89%, respectively, while the technology sector (.SPLRCT) led the declines.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it would take a year or two for inflation to return to 2% as wage growth remains high, raising concerns that interest rates will remain elevated for a long time.

Money markets are pricing in a 58% chance of the U.S. central bank cutting rates by 25 basis points in September, according to LSEG FedWatch.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 299.90 points, or 0.77%, to 39,134.76. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 13.86 points, or 0.25%, to 5,473.17 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 140.64 points, or 0.79%, to 17,721.59.

Kroger (KR.N) shares fell 3.27% after the company expressed caution about near-term consumer spending while reiterating its full-year sales and profit forecasts despite beating first-quarter estimates.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) shares fell 14.56%, weighed down by potential dilution after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the company's application to resell certain shares and warrants, netting it about $247 million in proceeds.

European stocks were strengthened by the technology and real estate sectors, as well as gains in Swiss stocks after the central bank continued to ease monetary policy.

The STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index rose 0.93%, while the broader European FTSEurofirst 300 (.FTEU3) index rose 0.90%.

The MSCI Worldwide Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) hit a record high but ended the day down 0.15% at 803.89.

Emerging market stocks lost 0.06%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) ended the day down 0.16%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.16%.

U.S. Treasury yields initially fell after the economic data, then began to rise again.

The market is eagerly awaiting an auction next week that will offer about $183 billion in two-, five- and seven-year U.S. Treasuries. Investors often sell Treasuries ahead of auctions to boost their yields and then buy them back at a lower price, a practice known as concessioning.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. yield has risen 3.7 basis points since late Tuesday to 4.254%. The 30-year yield has risen 3.7 basis points to 4.3908%. The yield on the two-year note, which is typically correlated with interest rate expectations, rose 2.7 basis points to 4.7308%.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and euro, rose 0.4% to 105.63, while the euro fell 0.34% to end the day at $1.0703.

The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen to its highest since April 29, up 0.51% to 158.89 yen.

The British pound fell to a five-week low against the dollar, down 0.43% to last trade at $1.2662.

"When we talk about dollar strength, it feels like for the first time in a long time there's a divergence in global monetary policy... Fed spokespeople continue to talk about the need for patience and time," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth in New York.

"The dollar is standing out in a weak competitive environment, particularly in Japan, which is making things worse," Hogan added.

U.S. crude oil prices rose 0.74% to $82.17 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.75% to $85.71 a barrel.

Spot gold rose 1.36% to $2,359.22 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 1.01% to $2,354.00 an ounce. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin rose 0.27% to $65,029.00, while Ethereum fell 0.47% to $3,534.8.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing issues on the NYSE by 1.03 to 1, with 248 new highs and 118 new lows.

The S&P 500 posted 31 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows. The Nasdaq Composite posted 39 new highs and 217 new lows.

Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 11.98 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 13.51 billion shares.
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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on June 24, 2024

Eurozone business activity indices were expected to edge higher, while the US PMI data were forecasted to decrease slightly. But everything turned out completely different. The euro area PMI data decreased significantly. However, the US PMIs report showed a rise. So, it's not surprising that the dollar strengthened its position. Now, the market is shifting from macroeconomic news, which has been practically absent in the last week of the month, to the news background. Moreover, it's more political than economic. Traditionally, there is relatively little activity in the markets at this time. Most likely, we will see some kind of rebound, after which the market will hover slightly above the current levels.

EUR/USD ended last week below the 1.0700 level, thus reflecting bearish sentiment among traders. However, there were no crucial changes, and market volatility was quite average.

On the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the lower range, which also indicates a bearish bias.

On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are still heading downwards.

Outlook
In case the euro weakens further, the price could move towards this year's low. However, if the quote closes above the 1.0700 level by the end of the day, then in this case, the 1.0700/1.0760 cycle may resume.

In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term period, technical indicators are pointing to a bounce or a bullish bias. Meanwhile, in the intraday period, the indicators are reflecting a downward cycle.
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As the West Changes Investing Course, the East Reacts with Indexes Rising

The Dow hit a one-month high on Monday, while the Nasdaq fell more than 1% as investors switched from artificial intelligence stocks to laggards on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower as investors shifted away from tech stocks, whose overextended gains have fueled this year's rally. However, nine of the 11 major S&P 500 industries rose.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O) have fallen 6.68% in three sessions as observers noted profit-taking after last week's meteoric rise made the company the world's most valuable.

Nvidia's decline triggered a sell-off in the tech sector, leading to significant losses. On Monday, the S&P 500 (.SPX) was down 0.3%, the Nasdaq (.IXIC) was down more than 1%, and the SOX semiconductor index (.SOX) lost more than 3%.

Other chipmakers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Broadcom (AVGO.O), Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) and Qualcomm (QCOM.O), fell 3.53% to 5.7%, leading the SOX index to fall 3.02%.

"The market is selling some winners and buying some laggards," said Jack Janasiewicz, chief strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. "This is due to expectations of soft inflation data coming out on Friday."

Tech (.SPLRCT) and consumer discretionary were the only sectors among the 11 S&P 500 indexes to decline, while energy led the gains, rising 2.73%.

"There's a rotation into value sectors like financials, energy and utilities. Energy is also benefiting from a small jump in oil prices," said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research.

Oil prices rose Monday, supporting gains in energy and oilfield services stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) jumped to snap a five-day winning streak. The Russell 2000 small-cap index (.RUT) also hit a one-week high, signaling broader gains in the market.

With the exception of Nvidia and other chipmakers, "the rest of the market is positive, expecting a soft landing," said Carl Ludvigson, managing director at Bel Air Investment Advisors.

Investors are focused this week on Friday's PCE price index report, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, which is expected to show modest price pressures.

Investors still expect two rate cuts this year, pricing in a 61% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September, according to FedWatch LSEG data. The Fed's latest forecast calls for one rate cut in December.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has said she doesn't think rates need to be cut until policymakers are confident that inflation is approaching 2%.

The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 15.73 points, or 0.29%, to end at 5,448.89. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 190.19 points, or 1.09%, to 17,499.17. The Dow rose 257.99 points, or 0.66%, to 39,408.32.

Other big stories this week include durable goods data, weekly jobless claims, final first-quarter GDP data and a year-over-year rebound in the Russell Index. There will also be some quarterly earnings reports.

President Joe Biden and his Republican rival Donald Trump will debate in Atlanta on Thursday, which could impact the outcome of the November election, which polls show is neck-and-neck.

Meta Platforms (META.O) shares rose after a report that the Facebook parent is discussing integrating its generative AI model into Apple's (AAPL.O) new iPhone AI system. Apple shares also rose.

RXO (RXO.N) announced plans to buy United Parcel Service (UPS.N) and launch a new unit, Coyote Logistics, for $1.025 billion.

Advance stocks outnumbered decliners 2.25-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange, with 179 new highs and 48 new lows.

The S&P 500 posted 35 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 49 new highs and 128 new lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.94 billion shares, below the 11.92 billion average over the past 20 trading days.

European stocks may see some recovery on Tuesday after their rally earlier in the week.

The tech loss has turned into a gain in value, as seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), which is up 0.7%.

This rotation has also become relevant in Asia. For example, AI-related stocks on Japan's Nikkei 225, such as SoftBank Group (9984.T), are retreating from their highs, while money is returning to the battered Toyota Motor (7203.T).

The positive news for investors is the overall gain in Asia-Pacific stock indices. Among the major indices, only tech-heavy Taiwan (.TWII) showed a decline. While the Nikkei (.N225) is up just half a percent, the Topix (.TOPX) is up almost 1.5%.

Geopolitics also requires attention. The mood could change quickly ahead of the first round of snap elections in France this weekend. So far, the far-right's efforts have been effective in calming fears of financial restraint.

As a result, the euro has rebounded sharply to $1.0740 after falling to $1.0671 on Friday.

Also worth watching is the European Commission's evolving relationship with Apple and China. Beijing is calling on the EU to scrap proposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports before they come into effect on July 4, and Chinese officials are seeking a compromise in talks in Brussels this week.

Apple needs to change how its App Store works or face large antitrust fines.
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Originally Posted by maspluto

The ability to analyze is a highly crucial factor in forex trading. That's why I always strive to develop my analytical skills, so that I can grow and analyze the market accurately with Tickmill as my broker.

Hello! The forum thread is dedicated to the Forexmart company. If you have any questions, I will be glad to answer them.

Analytical skills are a very important influential factor. Therefore, I always regularly develop my analytical abilities so that I can grow and accurately analyze the market with the broker Tickmill.

Wall Street: Modest gains, choppy trading ahead of inflation data

The major U.S. stock indexes ended Wednesday slightly higher after choppy trading. Investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the presidential debate and a key inflation report closely watched by Federal Reserve officials.

"We're in a holding pattern as we wait for Friday's PCE report for more data," said Michael Green, portfolio manager at Simplify.

Shares of chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 0.25%, ending the session higher after earlier losses. Large-cap names such as Apple (AAPL.O), Amazon (AMZN.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) also saw their shares rise.

A flurry of economic data is due out this week, culminating in Friday's Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and a key driver of monetary policy decisions.

The Federal Reserve is forecasting one interest rate cut in December. However, investors are pricing in a 56.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, according to LSEG's Interest Rate Probabilities app, and expecting about two cuts by the end of the year.

By 4 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) was up 16.10 points, or 0.04%, to 39,128.26. The S&P 500 (.SPX) was up 8.61 points, or 0.16%, to 5,477.91, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was up 87.50 points, or 0.49%, to 17,805.16.

"Investors are holding off for now, waiting for tomorrow's presidential debate and more economic data, especially Friday's PCE report," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

Strong earnings reports and favorable inflation data could fuel a shift away from tech stocks and into sectors that have underperformed this year, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.

Investors have been flocking to non-tech sectors this week.

"We're likely to see continued volatility until we get a catalyst," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Wealth Management.

Shares in appliance maker Whirlpool (WHR.N) rose 17.1% after news broke that German engineering group Robert Bosch may buy the company.

FedEx (FDX.N) shares soared 15.53% after the company announced that its fiscal 2025 profit forecast would beat expectations, sending the Dow Jones Transport (.DJT) to its highest level in more than a month.

Apple (AAPL.O) shares rose nearly 2% after analysts at Rosenblatt upgraded the iPhone maker's stock to buy from neutral. Meanwhile, Tesla shares rose 4.81% after Stifel began coverage of the company with a buy rating.

Amazon.com Inc's (AMZN.O) market value reached $2 trillion for the first time on Wednesday, becoming the fifth U.S. company to do so. Optimism about artificial intelligence and expectations of possible interest rate cuts this year have fueled demand for tech stocks.

Amazon shares rose 3.4% to $192.70, pushing the e-commerce giant's market value past $2 trillion. That puts it in line with tech giants Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O) and Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O).

Shares of Amazon, which were added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) in February, have gained more than 26% year to date. In February, the company became the fifth-largest U.S. company by market value after Nvidia climbed one spot.

Amazon Web Services, the world's largest cloud services provider, has seen growth again after a slump last year, thanks to accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence technologies.

Amazon has also invested in AI startup Anthropic and robotics company Fig, looking to capitalize on the rapidly growing interest in artificial intelligence.

Late last year, Amazon unveiled a new generation of custom-designed data center chips that are aimed at machine learning and generative AI applications.

Shares of major U.S. banks including Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Citigroup (C.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) fell ahead of the Federal Reserve's annual stress test results.

The broader S&P 500 (.SPSY) fell 0.47%.

Rivian (RIVN.O) shares rose 23.24% after German automaker Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) announced plans to invest up to $5 billion in the U.S. electric vehicle maker.

General Mills (GIS.N) shares fell 4.59% after the Cheerios cereal maker reported below-expected full-year profit and a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly sales.

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) by a 1.41-to-1 ratio. Overall, the NYSE posted 106 new highs and 89 new lows.

The S&P 500 posted 10 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 41 new highs and 171 new lows.

Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 10.59 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 11.83 billion shares.
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