Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the price of gold is retreating from a new all-time high around the $2,640

The increase in U.S. Treasury yields is helping to revive demand for U.S. dollars, leading to some profit-taking in gold. This occurs amid mildly overbought conditions observed on the daily chart.

However, any significant corrective decline in the precious metal is expected to be limited due to rising expectations of a more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, political uncertainty in the U.S., bleak global economic prospects, and ongoing geopolitical risks are expected to continue supporting the safe-haven appeal of gold. Furthermore, traders are awaiting a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, which could trigger renewed momentum for this non-interest-bearing asset.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakout and sustainability above the $2,600 level can be seen as a new trigger for bulls. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 70, suggesting some caution. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for a moderate pullback or a short-term consolidation before positioning for the next upward move.

Any corrective decline is likely to attract new buyers around the psychological level of $2,600, below which the price could drop to the horizontal support zone at $2,560. The next relevant support is located near the breakout level at $2,532, with the key psychological support set at $2,500. A decisive break below this level would shift the short-term bias in favor of the bears, paving the way for a more significant decline.
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Highs on the Horizon: China Stimulus Gives Miners a Boost

Record Gains for S&P 500 and Dow as Mining Stocks Take the Lead
The S&P 500 and Dow both hit new record highs on Tuesday despite weak consumer confidence data. This time, mining stocks helped the market, jumping on the back of massive economic stimulus announced by China.

Report Disappoints, But Markets Remain Afloat
Initially, the indexes gave up some of their gains after the Conference Board released a report that showed an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer confidence for September. The decline was due to growing concerns about the health of the U.S. labor market.

China Boost
"The main reason for today's gains was the news of support for China's stock market, as well as promises of future interest rate cuts. These announcements led to a sharp jump in international equities," said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Hill said Chinese stimulus measures have also weighed on U.S. markets, particularly in sectors that are exposed to the Chinese economy, such as mining and metals, which have seen strong gains.

Daily Roundup: Records Set as Cyclicals Rise
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) added 83.57 points (0.20%) to end the day at 42,208.22. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 14.36 points (0.25%) to 5,732.93, while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) rose 100.25 points (0.56%) to 18,074.52.

Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, five ended the day in positive territory, with material stocks posting the biggest gains, up 1.35%.

Metals prices soar as China unveils biggest stimulus since pandemic
Metals prices jumped sharply after China, the world's second-largest economy, announced its biggest economic stimulus since the pandemic, seeking to lift the country out of a deflationary crisis.

Mining stocks on the rise
Amid China's support measures, copper and lithium mining stocks showed notable gains. Freeport-McMoRan shares rose 7.93%, Southern Copper added 7.22%, Albemarle increased 1.97%, and Arcadium Lithium rose 3.2%.

Chinese giants strengthen their positions on US exchanges
Chinese companies listed on US exchanges also showed strong growth. For example, Alibaba jumped 7.88%, PDD Holdings rose 11.79%, and Li Auto gained 11.37%, reflecting positive sentiment in the domestic market.

Tech sector saw mixed results
Tech giants were mixed, with Nvidia rising 3.9% and Microsoft losing 1.15%. However, overall, the tech sector rose 0.79%. The Philadelphia SE semiconductor index rose 1.23%, led by gains in Qualcomm shares of 0.54% and Intel shares of 1.11%.

Fed urges caution as inflation rises
Fed Chair Michelle Bowman warned that inflation remains above the 2% target, calling for a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts.

This week, investors are focused on unemployment and personal consumption spending data, which could influence the Fed's next moves.

Visa Slips Amid Court Case
Among the notable moves in the market, Visa shares fell 5.49% after the U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against the company for possible antitrust violations. The move put significant pressure on the financial sector, which ended the session down 0.92%.

Stocks Show Solid Gains
Despite the problems in the financial sector, the New York Stock Exchange saw most stocks finish the day higher. For every one that fell, there were nearly two that advanced, a ratio of 1.93 to 1. The NYSE posted 636 new highs and only 43 new lows.

The S&P 500 also showed positive dynamics, with 62 new 52-week highs and no new lows. The Nasdaq Composite posted 103 new highs but also 101 new lows, reflecting a mixed picture in the tech market.

Active Trading on US Exchanges
Total trading volume on US stock markets was 11.42 billion shares, slightly below the average of 11.60 billion over the past 20 sessions. This shows that interest in the market is stable amid global economic changes.

Global Markets and Copper Prices Rise on Chinese Stimulus
A widely followed global stock index hit an all-time high on Tuesday, while copper prices rose to their highest in 10 weeks, driven by economic support measures announced by China, the world's second-largest economy.

Chinese Yuan and Oil Strengthen on Stimulus
The Chinese yuan hit a 16-month high against the US dollar, in response to economic support measures taken by Beijing. Following this, oil prices also rose to a three-week high, reflecting positive expectations in the world's largest crude importer.

New steps from the People's Bank of China
The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, announced plans to lower borrowing costs and inject more money into the economy. Particular attention will be paid to reducing the debt burden on households, in particular by reducing mortgage payments. Among the planned measures is a 50 basis point reduction in bank reserve requirements, which should stimulate further economic growth.

News from China boosts growth in US cyclical sectors
China's economic support measures have had a significant impact on US markets. "News signals from China are reflected in US sectors, particularly cyclical sectors such as metals and mining, which have performed impressively," said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Fed under close scrutiny by investors
Investors continue to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's actions, trying to predict its next move after the recent monetary easing, when the key interest rate was cut by 50 basis points.

World indices continue to move up
The MSCI World Equity Index showed confident growth, adding 0.54% and reaching a record high of 844.56 points. The European STOXX 600 index also rose by 0.65%, supporting positive sentiment in global markets.

Oil and metals markets are showing strength
In commodity markets, oil prices continued to rise: US crude oil rose by $1.19, reaching $71.56 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by $1.27 to $75.17 per barrel. This growth was caused by positive economic news from China, the world's largest consumer of raw materials.

Copper also posted a strong gain on the London Metal Exchange, rising 2.7% to $9,802 a tonne. The session peaked at $9,825, the highest since mid-July. China's influence on the metals market was a key factor in the rally.

Gold and Yuan Strengthen
Gold continued to strengthen amid growing interest in safe haven assets, rising 1.15% to $2,658.69 an ounce. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan strengthened 0.65% against the US dollar to $7.017.

Dollar Weakens on Weak Consumer Confidence
The US dollar index extended its decline after data showed weak consumer confidence, raising expectations for further Fed easing.

Dollar Loses as Euro and Yen Gain
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against major global currencies such as the yen and euro, fell 0.57% to 100.35. Meanwhile, the euro gained 0.59% to $1.1178. The Japanese yen also gained against the dollar, with the American currency weakening 0.31% to 143.15 yen.

Treasury yields fall as markets react to economic data
Treasury yields fell in choppy trading, as expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve became more likely amid weak economic data and waning consumer confidence.

Rate Futures: New Cut Odds Rising
The odds that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points at its November meeting have increased to 62%, up from 54% the day before, according to LSEG. At the same time, a more modest 25 basis point cut has a 38% chance.

US 10-Year Treasury Yields Weaken
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased slightly to 3.733% in afternoon trading after earlier hitting a three-week high of 3.81%. The trend reflects growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve may take additional monetary easing measures in the near future.
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Four reasons to buy Bitcoin

Through hardships to the stars! Bitcoin is enjoying its investment luster again thanks to worldwide monetary policy easing, rising global risk appetite, and hopes for improved crypto regulation in the US. Regardless of who comes to power—Kamala Harris or Donald Trump—digital assets will find support from the future president. This optimism is fueling the BTC/USD rally.

Bitcoin opened in September in a subdued mood. Historically, over the past decade, it has fallen by an average of 5.9% during the first month of autumn. However, there are exceptions to every rule. In 2024, Bitcoin gained about 10%, thanks to the aggressive start of the Federal Reserve's monetary expansion and support from both US presidential candidates. Kamala Harris promises to increase investment in the crypto industry and artificial intelligence, while Donald Trump plans to make America the crypto capital of the world.

Bitcoin's performance in September

The lower the interest rates, the cheaper the money, and the more liquidity there is in the financial system. An increase in the supply of fiat currencies reduces their purchasing power and drives investors to seek alternatives. The best of these are assets whose supply is limited by nature. It's no surprise that gold is hitting historical highs against this backdrop, and Bitcoin has surged to its highest levels since July.

The Federal Reserve has aggressively begun a cycle of monetary easing. The People's Bank of China has launched its largest-scale stimulus since the pandemic. The weakness of the Eurozone's economy is even prompting ECB hawks to consider rate cuts. Widespread monetary policy easing by major central banks creates a favorable environment for risky assets. Moreover, US stocks have surged thanks to the "Goldilocks" scenario—where GDP is slowing but still growing above trend, and inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target.

Meanwhile, the increase in Bitcoin's correlation with US stock indices to the highest levels since 2022 cements investors' intent to buy cryptocurrency. Unlike the S&P 500 and gold, Bitcoin is far from its historical peaks, meaning it doesn't resemble a bubble that could burst at any moment.

S&P 500 and cryptocurrency correlation trends

Thus, the combination of widespread monetary expansion, diminished trust in fiat currencies, growing global risk appetite, and bipartisan support for the crypto industry are giving Bitcoin a green light. But can it seize the opportunity? The answer to this question will largely depend on US stock indices, whose correlation with digital assets is rapidly increasing.

Technically, on the daily BTC/USD chart, a broadening wedge pattern has fully formed. We expect a pullback to the 4-5 wave, after which there will be an opportunity to increase the previously opened long positions at 55,420–55,720, 58,000, and 59,000.
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The main events by the morning: September 30

In 2025, the world's central banks will switch their focus from fighting inflation to stimulating economic growth. With the beginning of the cycle of interest rate cuts in the second half of this year, experts began to express concern about the prospects for economic development. Now central banks will look for new growth points, since the task of containing inflation has been completed. China has already started stimulating its economy last week.

Investors are actively showing interest in the IPO of Arenadata, having re-signed the application book 3-4 times along the upper limit. The company expects to re-sign 4-5 times. Arenadat strives to avoid a repeat of the situation with Diasoft and intends to make the placement more balanced. The auction will begin on October 1.

Russia plans to strengthen responsibility for illegal migration. Three draft laws are being developed: one of them assumes that illegal stay is considered an aggravating circumstance when committing offenses, the other introduces fines for forgery of migration documents in the amount of 5-10 million rubles, and the third provides for punishment for organizing illegal migration.

The United States has allocated $567 million in military assistance to Taiwan, including for the supply of weapons, training and training in the military sphere. In 2023, the United States provided $345 million in military aid to Taiwan. China considers Taiwan its territory and has repeatedly criticized the American authorities for its support.
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Indexes in the green, oil in the red: What's behind the market paradox?

Powell warns of caution
The S&P 500 unexpectedly soared to record highs on Monday, after earlier being under pressure due to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He signaled that the Fed will not rush into another rate cut, despite market expectations.

The index was supported by positive sentiment, as well as strong monthly and quarterly results. As a result, all three key US indices — the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq — closed the session in the "green zone", updating their historical maximums.

Important signals for the market
Speaking at the National Economic Association conference in Nashville, Powell indicated that the regulator expects two more rate cuts this year if economic indicators meet forecasts. In total, this amounts to 50 basis points, which allows investors to assess the Fed's further steps.

"Many people believe that the Fed's actions are already priced in for the rest of the year," comments Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management. "But I think the Fed may have more surprises in store for 2024. It is quite possible that the soft landing scenario will actually happen."

The market reacts to forecasts
The Fed already took a step towards easing policy earlier this month, cutting the rate by 50 basis points. Investors are closely monitoring the likelihood of a similar decision in November, which, according to CME Group, fell to 35% from 37% before Powell's speech and 53% on Friday.

Results of the day: all indices are positive
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 17.15 points (+0.04%), reaching 42,330.15. The S&P 500 rose by 24.31 points (+0.42%) and ended the day at 5,762.48. The Nasdaq Composite showed an increase of 69.58 points (+0.38%) and closed at 18,189.17.

Now, investors' attention is focused on future Fed statements and economic data, which can either confirm or adjust the market's expectations regarding the further movement of interest rates.

Best September in Seven Years
The S&P 500 ended September with a gain of 2%, which was its best result for this month since 2013. Moreover, this is the fifth month in a row when the S&P 500 has demonstrated positive dynamics. By the end of the quarter, the index added 5.5%, Nasdaq showed growth of 2.6%, and the Dow Jones became the leader, having strengthened by an impressive 8.2%.

Short-Term Volatility
The market reaction to Jerome Powell's statements was mixed. After his speech, the indices went down, but towards the end of the trading session there was a reversal and the market recovered. Experts believe that one of the reasons for this movement could be the activity on the last day of the quarter, when investors are trying to fix their positions.

"There's always a lot of trading activity toward the end of a quarter — it's standard behavior to buy the winners and dump the losers," says Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management.

The Fed and Market Expectations
The Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see period ahead of its November meeting, according to Quincy Crosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, as it receives a slew of new economic data that will shape the path of monetary policy.

There are several key releases coming this week, including initial jobless claims and private payrolls. The market is watching these indicators closely as they could impact the rate decision.

CVS Health Stock Rises
The company's stock jumped 2.4% on news that activist shareholder Glenview Capital Management is set to meet with CVS Health executives. According to insiders, the meeting will be devoted to possible changes in the company's strategy to improve its efficiency.

Optimism on the stock markets
On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of shares that showed growth exceeded the number of those that fell by 1.06 to 1. On the Nasdaq, this ratio turned out to be balanced - 1.00 to 1, which indicates an even mood of market participants.

The S&P 500 registered 30 new annual highs and only two new lows, while the Nasdaq index showed 82 new peaks and 88 lows. Current data indicates significant volatility, but also an active recovery of the positions of leading companies.

Trading volumes are high
Trading volumes on US stock exchanges reached 12.64 billion shares, which is higher than the average for the last 20 sessions, which is 11.93 billion. Increased activity may be due to investor nervousness amid statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and increased uncertainty about further monetary policy.

Markets in anticipation
The MSCI world stock index started the week on a minor note and showed a decline, while the dollar strengthened amid reduced expectations for a more aggressive easing of the Fed's policy. Powell made it clear that the regulator does not intend to sharply cut rates yet, which increased volatility in the markets and adjusted investor expectations. At the same time, oil futures ended trading sideways due to uncertainty around the conflict in the Middle East.

Powell's comments wobbled
Markets were mixed after Powell said the Fed would not force a rate cut. Investors who had expected a deeper cut are reconsidering their positions as the Fed chief raised the prospect of two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year, provided the economy continues to grow within current forecasts.

Strong inflation data supports gains
Wall Street's major indexes rose strongly last week after U.S. core inflation data came in below expectations, raising the prospects for further monetary easing. However, as of Monday, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November had fallen to 36.7% from 53.3% on Friday, according to CME Group.

Investors continue to assess the likelihood of further rate cuts as the U.S. economy shows mixed signals. The focus remains on employment, inflation and GDP growth data, which could either strengthen Powell's position or lead to a revision of current forecasts. The market remains in a state of heightened uncertainty, which is reflected in trading volumes and volatility.

Rates are high, and so are risks
In the coming weeks, market participants will be closely watching the speeches of Fed officials for the slightest hint of a possible change in course. Market expectations have become more subdued, but any new information could change the situation again.

Stocks have returned to previous levels
Despite an initial decline at the time of Jerome Powell's speech, the S&P 500 and Dow indices ended the session at record highs, recouping losses in the final hours of trading. The gains came on the final day of the quarter, when investors traditionally adjust portfolios, adding additional volatility to the market.

"The strong close can be partly attributed to the impact of so-called 'quarterly rebalancing', a typical practice of recalibrating portfolios at the last minute to improve performance," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments.

Strong growth for the month and quarter
The S&P 500 index rose 2.01% in September, demonstrating an impressive fifth consecutive month of positive dynamics. And for the quarter, it strengthened by 5.53%, which underscores the market's resilience amid uncertainty over the Fed's further actions.

The MSCI Global Index also ended the day in the red, falling 0.21% to 851.02. However, for the month, the index gained about 2%, and for the third quarter, it showed a strong growth of 6%, which indicates a restoration of optimism among global investors.

Risk Factors Remain in Play
Per Stirling Capital's Tim Phipps warns that investors continue to keep a close eye on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the aftermath of Hurricane Helen and the threat of a major US dock strike. Added to this is the uncertainty surrounding the Chinese economy, which is struggling to maintain growth momentum with new stimulus measures.

China Adds Positive to Asian Markets
China's stock market has responded with a strong rally as Beijing unveils stimulus packages. The CSI300 index of China's leading companies posted its biggest daily gain since 2008, jumping 8.5%. This follows a rally over the past five trading days, during which the index has gained more than 25%.

Investor Strategies and Expectations
Investors remain in a holding pattern as further moves by both the Fed and major economies such as China could have a significant impact on global markets. Current events highlight the importance of balancing domestic and external risks, including macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical factors.

Against this backdrop, experts recommend caution and focus on portfolio diversification, as instability could prove to be a long-term trend.

Fed chief's hawkish stance worries the market
The US currency strengthened after Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed may not cut rates significantly in November. The statement caught the market by surprise and forced investors to reassess their expectations.

"It looks like Powell has taken his share of hawkish pills," said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research and macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, with irony. In his opinion, traders are now starting to worry that the regulator is really set for two small rate cuts of 25 basis points this year.

The dollar is steadily growing against major currencies
The dollar index, reflecting its dynamics against key currencies such as the euro and the yen, rose by 0.32%, reaching 100.76. As a result, the euro weakened to $1.1133, which is 0.27% lower than the day before, and the dollar against the yen rose by 1% to 143.61.

The debt market reacts to the Fed's rhetoric
The yield on US Treasury bonds also changed following the updated expectations of investors. The benchmark 10-year bond rose by 3.6 basis points, reaching 3.785%. This is higher than the value of Friday, when the yield was 3.749%.

Two-year bonds, which are usually more sensitive to interest rate changes, showed an even sharper move. Their yields rose 7.4 basis points to 3.637%, up from 3.563% late Friday.

Yield curve signals shift in sentiment
The gap between the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields, often used as a proxy for economic growth expectations, was 14.6 basis points. That figure is seen as a sign of rising investor confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy despite continued uncertainty around monetary policy.

What's next?
A stronger dollar and rising bond yields highlight a shift in market sentiment. Market participants will be watching further Fed comments and economic data to see whether the Fed will continue to tighten its rhetoric or decide to pursue more aggressive easing later in the year.

US oil shows its biggest drop in a year
US WTI oil prices fell slightly, ending the day at $68.17 per barrel, losing just 1 cent during the trading session. However, the results of September turned out to be much more dramatic - the cost of raw materials fell by 7% in a month, which was the largest drop since October 2023. By the end of the quarter, the drop reached 16%, which makes it the most significant in the last year.

Brent is also in the red
The global benchmark of Brent crude oil closed the session at $71.77 per barrel, down 21 cents. In September, Brent fell by 9%, showing the strongest monthly drop since November 2022 and continuing the downward trend for the third month in a row. The quarterly results are even less comforting: Brent lost almost 17%, which was the most significant quarterly decline in the last 12 months.

Gold Cools Off After Explosive Rally
After an impressive rally fueled by the Fed's soft rhetoric and geopolitical tensions, gold retreated slightly, taking a pause before the end of the quarter. The spot price of the precious metal fell by 1% to $2,631.39 per ounce. US gold futures also showed a correction, falling by 0.54% to $2,629.90 per ounce.

Gold's Best Quarter Since the Start of 2020
Despite the current weakness, the precious metal is ending the quarter with its best results since the beginning of 2020. Investors view gold as a reliable safe-haven asset amid high uncertainty in financial markets and escalating geopolitical risks, including instability in the Middle East.

Outlook
With oil prices falling and gold stabilizing, the energy and precious metals market remains in a zone of high volatility. Market participants will be watching the actions of major oil producing countries and how the global economy develops, which could determine the future trajectory of commodity assets in the next quarter.
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USD/JPY: Shigeru, Ueda, and ADP report

The yen is losing ground again. After nearly a 500-pip rally, the Japanese currency has been falling against re greenback again. On Monday, the USD/JPY pair hit a two-week low, dropping to 141.66, reacting to the unexpected results of the elections of the ruling political party's leadership. The Liberal Democratic Party is now headed by Shigeru Ishiba, who has taken over the government and announced plans to hold early parliamentary elections—one year ahead of schedule.

The yen responded positively to Ishiba's victory, as he is considered a proponent of tight monetary policy and raising interest rates to combat inflation. Importantly, he defeated Sanae Takaichi, a candidate from the highly conservative wing of the LDP (who was considered the frontrunner in the race), who, in contrast, advocated for a softer monetary policy.

In response to Ishiba's victory, the USD/JPY pair dropped 500 pips, falling from 146.50 to the mid-141 range. However, as is often the case with political factors, their influence fades quickly—by the end of the week, the pair's buyers had recovered almost all lost points. The "Shigeru factor" was swiftly priced in by the market, which is quite logical, given that the election of a new prime minister, even one with "hawkish" views, doesn't mean the Bank of Japan will automatically accelerate rate hikes. Ishiba will play his part, of course, but not immediately and not in the public sphere. Don't expect any "Trump-style" statements from the new Japanese prime minister, like those made by the former US president who openly urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Meanwhile, the classic fundamental factors suggest that the Bank of Japan will not rush into the next round of rate hikes. In particular, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index reflected a slowdown in inflation: the overall CPI dropped to 2.2% in September (after rising to 2.6% in August), while the core CPI fell to 2.0%. This index is considered a leading indicator for determining inflation trends nationwide, so its downward trend is a worrying sign for USD/JPY sellers. Other macroeconomic indicators also disappointed. Japan's industrial production volume dropped by more than 3% in August on a monthly basis (-3.3%) against a forecast of -0.5%. Additionally, the volume of new housing starts in Japan declined sharply in September by 5.1% (against a forecast drop of 3.3%).

Such fundamental conditions do not support the tightening of monetary policy. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed this assumption in his recent speeches. He emphasized the need to maintain a wait-and-see strategy, "considering global economic risks and financial market instability." In his speech yesterday, he also reiterated a cautious stance. According to him, the regulator will pursue "appropriate monetary policy in order to sustainably and stably achieve the inflation target of 2%."

For the most part, the Bank of Japan's leader made general, conventional, and non-committal statements. But this is precisely what is weighing on the Japanese currency. Many of his policymakers (Naoki Tamura, Hajime Takata, and Junko Nagakawa) hinted in their September speeches that the central bank might raise interest rates again in the near future. They specifically pointed to wage indicators (which showed positive dynamics, rising by 1.1% year-on-year in June and 0.4% year-on-year in July).

However, Kazuo Ueda cooled the enthusiasm of USD/JPY sellers. He stated that the October data on service prices "will be key in determining whether inflation is accelerating." Only after a thorough analysis of this data, the regulator will shed light on whether any policy changes can be expected.

In other words, the head of the Bank of Japan cast doubt on another rate hike this year, though he did not rule out such a scenario. This indecisiveness from Ueda disappointed USD/JPY sellers. So, the yen ceased to act as a "driving force" in the USD/JPY pair.

All of this suggests that a resumption of a downward movement is only possible if the US dollar weakens. The instrument is following the dollar index, which in turn is awaiting the key report of the week—the US nonfarm payrolls to be published the day after tomorrow, on October 4. I remind you how traders reacted to the ADP report, which came out in the green today, reflecting the creation of 144,000 jobs in the private sector. On the one hand, this is a relatively modest result. On the other hand, most experts expected this figure to be around 124,000. This has sparked hope among dollar bulls that nonfarm payrolls will also be in the green. In that case, the likelihood of a 50-point rate cut at the November meeting will drop to 20-15%, and the dollar will receive additional (and quite significant!) support.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has approached the resistance level of 145.30 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). It would be advisable to enter long positions after buyers break above and consolidate above this level. In that case, the next medium-term target for the upward movement will be 147.00, which is the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the same time frame.
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Middle East conflict steals the show as Tesla and Nike reports leave investors cold

S&P 500 remains flat amid Middle East tensions and job data concerns
The U.S. stock index S&P 500 ended Wednesday's trading session nearly unchanged as tech stocks managed to gain, but investors remained cautious due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and anticipation of critical U.S. employment data expected later this week.

Nvidia's gains offset by Tesla's drop
A rise in Nvidia shares by 1.6% provided support to the S&P 500's tech sector. However, Tesla shares declined by 3.5% after the electric vehicle manufacturer reported quarterly vehicle deliveries that fell short of market expectations.

Market eyes on the Middle East
Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East after Israel vowed to retaliate for Iran's missile attack on Tuesday. U.S. President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that he would not back an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities in response to the attack and urged Israel to act "proportionately."

Labor market remains resilient
Early Wednesday, data showed that U.S. private sector jobs increased more than expected in September, suggesting continued strength in the labor market. Still, traders remain focused on the upcoming non-farm payrolls report due Friday, as well as Thursday's jobless claims data, which could further influence market expectations.

With the market in a state of suspense, any surprise data or geopolitical developments could serve as a catalyst for volatility in the days ahead.

Investors brace for earnings season and Fed decisions
U.S. stock indices saw little change on Wednesday as investors prepared for an upcoming wave of earnings reports and Federal Reserve decisions. "We're about to see the employment report on Friday, and then next week kicks off the earnings season," commented Michael O'Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at JonesTrading in Stamford, Connecticut.

Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq barely budge
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 39.55 points, or 0.09%, to close at 42,196.52. The S&P 500 edged up 0.01%, gaining just 0.79 points to end at 5,709.54. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 14.76 points, or 0.08%, to 17,925.12.

Fed's unexpected move fuels September rally
The stock market wrapped up September with strong gains after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points to support the labor market. As a result, the S&P 500 climbed 19.7% year-to-date.

The probability of another 25 basis point cut at the November FOMC meeting now stands at 65.7%, up from 42.6% a week earlier, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.

Major banks to lead earnings season
JPMorgan Chase and other banking giants will kick off the third-quarter earnings season on October 11, setting the tone for the broader S&P 500 as investors look for signs of stability amid economic uncertainty.

Dockworkers strike paralyzes U.S. ports
Meanwhile, a strike involving 45,000 dockworkers, which has brought shipping at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports to a halt, entered its second day on Wednesday. Negotiations between the unions and employers have yet to be scheduled, according to sources.

Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that the strike is costing the U.S. economy approximately $5 billion per day, intensifying concerns over potential supply chain disruptions.

The market remains on edge as investors await further updates that could impact corporate earnings and broader economic trends.

Nike disappoints Wall Street: shares plunge after withdrawing revenue forecast
Nike shares dropped sharply by 7% on Wednesday after the sportswear giant pulled its annual revenue target, leaving investors puzzled over the company's turnaround timeline under new CEO Elliott Hill.

Investor day canceled, adding to uncertainties
In addition to retracting its revenue forecast, Nike also canceled its investor day scheduled for November 19. The company's CFO, Matthew Friend, explained that the decision would provide Hill with "the necessary flexibility to review Nike's strategies and business trends," hinting at possible restructuring.

How does Nike stack up against competitors?
Currently, Nike's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 27.98, compared to 27.08 for Deckers and 35.14 for Adidas. Despite the recent decline, Nike shares, trading at $82, have still recovered 10% since the announcement of Hill's appointment in September.

Industry insiders optimistic about Hill's appointment
The CEO of British retailer JD Sports expressed confidence in Hill, stating, "It's good to have someone from within the industry who knows Nike and understands its product range." This suggests that Hill's familiarity with the company could help navigate Nike through its current challenges.

Competitors suffer alongside Nike
Other sportswear stocks weren't immune to the market's jitters: Under Armour and Lululemon both declined by over 2%, while Foot Locker fell by 3%, reflecting broader concerns about supply chain disruptions and sales slowdowns.

Humana plunges amid Medicare warning
Elsewhere, shares of Humana Inc. tumbled 11.8% after the health insurer warned that it expects a drop in enrollment in its top-rated Medicare Advantage plans for seniors in 2025. This statement has sparked worries about the broader healthcare sector's outlook.

With markets digesting these developments, Nike's outlook remains under scrutiny as the company grapples with uncertain forecasts and growing competition.

Wall Street braces for key Fed moves as global markets wobble
Global markets displayed mixed performance as traders digested U.S. labor data and awaited signals from the Federal Reserve. "Given the latest job numbers in the private sector, the bond market is betting against a 50 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting," noted Matt Miskin, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

Indices move sideways
The MSCI global equity index (MIWD00000PUS) dipped by 0.04% to 845.49 points, reflecting overall cautious sentiment. Earlier, the STOXX Europe 600 managed to close with a slight gain of 0.05% at 521.14 points.

Oil prices under pressure, but holding ground
On the energy front, U.S. crude oil rose 0.39% to $70.10 per barrel, while Brent finished the day at $73.90 per barrel, up 0.46%. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the upward momentum was capped by a significant increase in U.S. crude inventories.

Treasury yields extend gains
U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward trajectory: the benchmark 10-year yield climbed by 4 basis points to 3.783%, compared to 3.743% the previous day. Meanwhile, 30-year bonds saw a 4.9 basis point rise, closing at 4.1299%. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to Fed rate expectations, edged up 1.4 basis points to 3.6352%.

Yield curve hints at cautious optimism
A closely-watched segment of the U.S. yield curve, measuring the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields, remained at a positive 14.6 basis points — suggesting that investors are not pricing in a near-term recession.

Dollar strengthens amid market uncertainty
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, rose by 0.34% to 101.60. The euro slipped by 0.16% to $1.1049, while the dollar surged 2% against the Japanese yen, reaching 146.43.

Gold loses its luster
In the precious metals market, spot gold declined by 0.14% to $2,659.22 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell by 1.02% to $2,640.00. Rising bond yields and a stronger dollar weighed on gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

With traders balancing geopolitical risks and economic indicators, market sentiment remains fragile, and any new developments could tip the scales in unexpected directions.
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Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy, Oil Rising: How the U.S. Balances Labor Market Gains and Geopolitics

Dow Ends Week at Record High, Nasdaq Shows Solid Gains
The Dow hit record highs on Friday, while the Nasdaq posted an impressive gain of more than 1%, driven by an unexpectedly strong increase in U.S. employment, which somewhat allayed investors' fears about possible economic weakness.

Record Job Growth
September was the month with the most significant job growth in the past six months. According to the published data, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Experts took this report as a signal that the economy remains resilient and does not lose momentum.

"The data confirms that we can expect stable economic activity in the fourth quarter," commented Peter Cardillo, chief economist at Spartan Capital Securities.

Impact on Interest Rates
The improving economic situation, however, may slow down the interest rate cuts that were previously expected. Cardillo noted that positive news from the labor market will most likely slow the process of further rate cuts.

Traders also adjusted their expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for November 6-7. The chance of a 50 basis point rate cut fell to 8% from 31% earlier in the day, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.

Small Caps, Financials Rise
Amid the broader market rally, small caps and financials stood out. The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.5%, while the S&P 500 Index rose 1.6%.

The trading session's results showed that despite the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future actions, investors remain optimistic about the resilience of the U.S. economy.

Spirit Airlines Shares Plunge, Airlines Mixed
Spirit Airlines shares plunged 24.6% on news that the company may be in bankruptcy talks with bondholders. While Spirit plunges into crisis, other airlines are rallying. Thus, Frontier Group shares soared by 16.4%, United Airlines jumped by 6.5%, and Delta Air Lines rose by 3.8%.

Growth of leading indices
Friday's session ended with growth of the main American stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 341.16 points (0.81%), reaching 42,352.75. The broad market index S&P 500 also added 0.90% and closed at 5,751.07, and the Nasdaq Composite demonstrated growth by 1.22%, ending the day at 18,137.85.

Weekly results amid geopolitical instability
Although the main indices showed growth on Friday, their results remained modest for the week. Strong investor concerns are associated with the tense situation in the Middle East. The Dow added just 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq also ended the week with a symbolic gain of 0.1%.

Energy on the rise
The energy sector showed notable gains thanks to a sharp jump in oil prices, which is also associated with political instability in the Middle East. The S&P energy index rose 1.1% on Friday and showed an impressive 7% gain for the week, which was the largest weekly gain since October 2022.

The dynamics in the markets highlight how geopolitical risks and corporate news can have diametrically opposed effects on different sectors of the economy.

Biden urges Israel to consider alternatives in the conflict
US President Joe Biden suggested that if he were in Israel's place, he would consider other measures besides attacks on Iranian oil facilities. He also said he believed Israel had not yet made a final decision on how to respond to Iran's missile strikes this week.

Rivian Shares Slide
Rivian shares fell 3.2% after reporting disappointing production data. The electric vehicle startup cut its full-year guidance and reported delivering fewer vehicles than planned in the third quarter.

S&P 500 Earnings Expectations
Investors are eagerly awaiting the start of the third-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 next week. Particular attention will be focused on major financial players like JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, which will report on October 11.

Stock Market Optimism
Investor optimism remains as the S&P 500 has posted a 20.6% gain for the year. Many are hoping that quarterly results will meet high expectations, supporting the continued rally in stock markets.

US Port Backlogs Expected to Ease
Ports on the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico have reopened, but shipping backlogs may take time to clear as logistical challenges persist. Advancing Stocks Outnumber Declining Stocks

On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1.72 to 1. On the Nasdaq, the ratio was even higher, at 2.20 to 1 in favor of advancing stocks.

Highs and Lows on the Stock Exchanges
The S&P 500 Index posted 33 new 52-week highs and just one new low. The Nasdaq Composite posted 98 new highs and 91 new lows.

Trading Volume on U.S. Exchanges Falls
Trading volume on U.S. exchanges on Friday was 10.91 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 12.03 billion. Despite this, global markets remained positive amid strong U.S. labor market data.

Global Markets and the Dollar's Rise
MSCI's global stock index rose, and the U.S. dollar hit its highest level since August. This came after an unexpectedly strong employment report eased investor fears of a possible economic slowdown.

Oil prices rise amid geopolitical risks
Oil prices ended the week with their biggest gain in a year, driven by the escalation in the Middle East and the threat of a wider regional conflict. However, further gains were curbed after US President Joe Biden urged Israel to refrain from an immediate attack.

Strong US employment data
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the creation of 254,000 new jobs in September, well above the 140,000 expected. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and data for August were revised up, indicating a stable US labor market.

Reaction to Treasuries and Fed actions
Amid a stronger-than-expected employment report, US Treasury yields rose to their highest since August. This has caused traders to recalibrate their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The probability that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter percentage point in November has risen to 97%, up from 68% the day before, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.

Economic data continues to have a significant impact on the market, causing forecast revisions and creating dynamic changes in investor strategy.

Market Reaction to Strong Employment Data
U.S. stocks responded positively to strong employment data despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish sentiment. This, according to Julia Hermann, a strategist at New York Life Investments, highlights the fact that investors are now focusing on economic growth, even if it comes with higher interest rates.

"The market has been able to adapt well to this shift, which suggests a constructive approach to the economic outlook," Hermann said, pointing to strong moves in Treasuries and stocks in recent days.

Economic relief: Ports reopen
The US economy also got some breathing room as ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast reopened. Dock workers and port operators reached a wage agreement, ending one of the sector's largest strikes in 50 years. However, clearing up the backlog of supplies that has accumulated during the strike could take some time.

Global indices and rising oil prices
The MSCI World Index ended the day up 0.57%, reaching 847.12 points, although it had fallen 0.7% for the week. The European STOXX 600 index also showed gains, adding 0.44%.

Investors continue to closely monitor events in the Middle East. The question of Israel's response to the missile strikes launched by Iran is particularly acute. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made it clear that Iran and its allies have no intention of backing down.

Oil Prices Rise
Oil prices continued to rise. US crude rose 0.9% to $74.38 a barrel, while North Sea Brent added 0.55% to end the day at $78.05 a barrel. This highlights the ongoing geopolitical risks weighing on energy markets.

The current situation in global markets shows that investors are balancing positive economic news with increasing tensions on the international stage.

The dollar strengthens amid strong employment data
The US dollar showed significant strength, reaching a seven-week high. This is due to the fact that fresh employment data forced traders to revise their expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The dollar is on track to end the week with the largest gain since September 2022.

Dollar Index Movement
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major global currencies, rose 0.56% to 102.48. The euro, by contrast, weakened 0.5% to $1.0976, while the Japanese yen lost 1.25%, pushing the dollar higher to 148.77 yen.

Treasury yields rise
U.S. Treasury yields also rose. The benchmark 10-year note rose 12.5 basis points to 3.975%, while the 30-year yield rose 7.9 basis points to 4.259%. Yields on the 2-year note, which is most sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, rose particularly sharply, adding 21.8 basis points to 3.9321%.

Gold Slips
Gold prices slipped on the back of a strong U.S. jobs report that reduced the likelihood of a major Fed rate cut. Spot gold lost 0.23% to $2,649.89 an ounce. U.S. gold futures also fell, falling 0.38% to $2,647.10 an ounce.

The economic outlook has put precious metals, traditionally seen as safe havens, under pressure as investors reassess their expectations for U.S. monetary policy.
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Who Will Hold Wall Street Back? Amazon and Alphabet Under Attack, Pfizer Takes the Lead

Wall Street Closes in the Red as Investors Brace for New Challenges
US stock markets closed Monday with the major indexes down about 1% as Treasury yields rose, driven by traders' revised forecasts for the Federal Reserve's future policy and concerns about the impact of instability in the Middle East on global oil prices. Escalation and anticipation of new data

Market participants continue to analyze economic indicators and prepare for the start of the earnings season for major companies. Additional concerns are caused by the approaching Hurricane Milton, which is expected to reach the United States in the coming days. Recall that Hurricane Helene, which recently swept across the country, claimed more than 200 lives and affected six states, leaving significant damage and requiring large-scale restoration work.

Corporate news: a blow to the giants
Investor sentiment worsened after a US court decision against Alphabet, which will have to reconsider its approach to mobile applications. This is due to the need to expand the capabilities for Android users, which may affect the company's profitability. In turn, analysts' forecasts caused a decline in the shares of such tech giants as Amazon and Apple.

Rising bond yields: Fed rate revision
Friday's employment report turned out to be more optimistic than expected, which prompted market participants to revise their expectations regarding future Fed decisions. Traders have now virtually ruled out the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in November, with an 86% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Moreover, there is a 14% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Record 10-Year Note Yield
The adjustment in interest rate expectations has led to a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. For the first time in two months, the yield on 10-year US government securities has exceeded 4%, which has become an additional factor of pressure on the stock market.

Experts continue to monitor the situation and predict possible fluctuations depending on new macroeconomic data and corporate reports, which can determine the further direction of the markets.

Investors await key economic signals
The financial world is eagerly preparing for the publication of the consumer price index for September and the start of the third quarter earnings season, which can set the direction for the markets in the coming months. Attention is also focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next month. With the first quarterly earnings results from major banks already underway, market participants will be closely monitoring the sector to assess the economic situation and possible regulatory measures.

Geopolitics heighten risks in the Middle East
In parallel with economic expectations, tensions in the Middle East are increasing, causing concern among investors. The Lebanese group Hezbollah has launched rocket attacks on northern Israel, including the major port city of Haifa. In response, the Israeli military is demonstrating its readiness to expand ground operations in southern Lebanon. Concerns about a possible escalation of the conflict are adding to the turbulence in stock and commodity markets.

Leading indices decline
The main US indices closed trading with significant losses on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 398.51 points (0.94%) and closed at 41,954.24. The broad S&P 500 fell 55.13 points, or 0.96%, to 5,695.94, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 213.94 points, or 1.18%, to end the day at 17,923.90.

Fear Index Soars
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often seen as a gauge of market uncertainty and panic, jumped 3.4 points to 22.64, its biggest one-day gain in a month and a half and its highest close since early August, signaling heightened nervousness among market participants.

Energy Gains on Oil Price Jump
Of the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, only energy ended the day in the green, up 0.4%. Oil prices continued to rise amid concerns about potential supply disruptions due to the escalation in the Middle East, leading to a fifth straight day of gains for U.S. crude futures, which rose 3.7%.

Worst Losers: Utilities and Communications
Utilities were the worst performers among all sectors, falling 2.3%. The communications sector was also hurt by a significant decline in Alphabet shares, with the tech giant's stock falling 2.5%, continuing a string of negative news for the company.

Stock analysts continue to closely monitor macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that could impact further market dynamics in the coming days.

Giants Fall: Apple and Amazon Under Pressure
One of the most notable moves in the market was a sharp decline in Apple shares after Jefferies analysts changed their outlook on the stock from a "buy" to a "hold." As a result, the company's shares fell by 2.3%, which was the largest decline among the components of the S&P 500 index on the day. Following it, Amazon shares also came under pressure, ending the trading session with a decline of 3%. This happened against the backdrop of a rating downgrade by Wells Fargo, which increased investor pessimism towards the e-commerce giant.

Generac in the Spotlight Amid Hurricane
At the opposite extreme of the index, Generac Holdings was the company whose shares soared by 8.52%. The growth was caused by increased demand for generators and backup power systems, which is associated with expectations of another hurricane approaching the United States. Investors are betting that demand for the company's products will increase significantly in the event of major disruptions and power outages.

Pfizer on the Rise with Activist Investor
Shares in pharmaceutical giant Pfizer rose 2% after news that hedge fund Starboard Value had acquired a stake in the company worth about $1 billion. The entry of a major shareholder known for his active influence on the management of companies has fueled optimism among investors who expect the new strategic stake could spur growth.

Air Products and Chemicals Succeeds: Mantle Ridge's Bet
Shares in Air Products and Chemicals also saw a strong move, closing with an impressive 9.5% gain after news that hedge fund Mantle Ridge had increased its stake in the company, raising expectations for a positive change in the company's strategy.

Overall Market Sentiment: Bearish sentiment prevails
Despite positive results from some companies, the overall market sentiment remained negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners outnumbered advancers by a ratio of 2.73 to 1. There were 222 new highs and 55 new lows on the day, highlighting the significant volatility in the market.

On the tech-heavy Nasdaq, the picture was even grimmer, with 2,988 stocks ending the day in the red against 1,292 gainers, reflecting a ratio of 2.31 to 1. The S&P 500 posted 34 new yearly highs and just two new lows, while the Nasdaq reported 83 highs and 118 new lows, highlighting the bearish sentiment prevailing among market participants.

Trading Volumes Decline
Trading volume on U.S. stock exchanges totaled 11.39 billion shares, below the 20-session average of 12.06 billion shares. The decline in activity points to uncertainty among market participants, who are likely to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of upcoming economic and corporate events.

Global Markets Under Pressure: U.S. Bond Yields Rise
Global stock indices began the new week in negative territory, while U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise steadily. Benchmark 10-year bonds rose above 4%, signaling to investors that the Federal Reserve may be changing its monetary policy. The gain was the highest since early August and confirmed that market participants are preparing for a less aggressive rate cut by the Fed.

Yields hit record high after strong employment data
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.033%, the highest since August 1 and the first time it has been above 4% since August 8. The reason was last Friday's employment report, which was much better than expected and significantly changed expectations for the central bank's next steps. Investors believe that the Fed may take a more cautious stance and avoid sharp rate cuts, which has led to a revision of market forecasts.

Rate change probability: the market has adjusted expectations
The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is now estimated at 84.6%, and the chances that the regulator will leave rates unchanged have increased to 15.4%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Just a week ago, the market was confident that a 25 basis point cut was imminent and even priced another, larger 50 basis point cut at 34.7%.

Strategists Warn of a Possible Reversal
"The market has changed its outlook dramatically, from expecting a significant rate cut in November to expecting rates to remain unchanged," said Gennady Goldberg, chief rates strategist at TD Securities in New York. He said the shift in expectations occurred in just a few days, amid positive macro data that has forced investors to rethink their positions.

"It would be surprising for the Fed to back off from further cuts so quickly after the recent 50 basis point cut," Goldberg added. He stressed that the market is still in flux and much will depend on data in the coming weeks.

Outlook for the Future: Cautious Optimism or Pause?
Financial analysts agree that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take any drastic steps, given that the recent rate cuts have already caused significant volatility in the markets.

Instead, the regulator may prefer to wait and see how previous decisions affect the economy and inflation. At the same time, some market participants warn that current expectations may change again if future economic data is not as optimistic as the latest employment figures.

The market situation remains tense, and any change in expectations could affect Treasury yields, which in turn will affect stock performance and overall volatility.

US markets close in the red: only the energy sector showed growth
Trading on Wall Street on Monday ended with quotes falling, and only the energy sector was able to stay in positive territory. Shares of energy companies included in the S&P 500 index showed growth amid continuing rise in oil prices. This is due to concerns that the deepening crisis in the Middle East could lead to disruptions in the supply of raw materials and restrictions on exports.

Global indices under pressure: MSCI goes into the red
The MSCI world share index lost 3.66 points (0.43%), falling to 843.74. This was the fifth decline in the last six trading sessions. The tense situation in global markets reflects increasing caution among investors ahead of important economic data. At the same time, the European STOXX 600 index managed to break into positive territory, closing with a gain of 0.18%. Despite this, the rise was limited due to pressure on sectors sensitive to interest rate changes, such as real estate and utilities.

Treasury yields again went up
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped by 4.3 basis points, reaching 4.024%. This follows a recent revision to expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path. Short-term 2-year notes, whose yields are closely linked to interest rate expectations, also rose 5.7 basis points to 3.989%. Earlier in the session, their yield rose to 4.027%, the highest since August 20.

Yield Curve Signals Sentiment Shift
Investors are closely watching the behavior of the Treasury yield curve, which is considered an important indicator of economic expectations. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields, which has been inverted for some time, is now positive at 3.3 basis points.

This is the first time the curve has shown a sustained increase since briefly falling into negative territory on September 18. An inversion of the yield curve is traditionally seen as a harbinger of a recession, and its return to positive territory may signal an easing of concerns about an economic downturn.

Awaiting Key Data: All Eyes on CPI
Economic uncertainty remains as key U.S. macroeconomic data is not due until Thursday. Investors are awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could provide further clues about the Federal Reserve's next steps.

Earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues said the central bank was now shifting its focus from fighting inflation to maintaining labor market stability. The announcement triggered a revision in market expectations, adding uncertainty to the near-term rate outlook.

Market participants are now taking a wait-and-see approach, hoping for more data to help clarify the path the Fed will take in managing monetary policy.

Top Fed Officials Set to Speak: Markets Await Signals
Market participants are eagerly awaiting speeches from several key Federal Reserve officials this week. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are scheduled to speak on Monday, which could shed light on the current sentiment of the Fed and provide additional clues about future rate management.

Kashkari: US economy showing resilience
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that despite signs of a slowdown, the labor market remains strong, supporting overall economic stability. He said the Fed's goal is to maintain current labor market conditions even as rates are lowered, which should support sustainable growth. The statements confirm that the Fed is prepared to tread carefully to avoid abrupt changes in the economy.

Oil Market Shows Solid Gains
Oil prices continue to rise amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of further supply disruptions. U.S. crude oil rose 3.71% to $77.14 a barrel. Meanwhile, Brent crude also rose 3.69% to close the day at $80.93 a barrel. Energy demand is picking up, with traders keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East for fear of further disruptions to supply chains.

Dollar at a crossroads: currency gyrations continue
The dollar index, which measures its strength against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.05% to 102.48. The euro, meanwhile, was also down slightly to $1.0973. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened, rising 0.42% against the dollar to close the day at 148.09 yen after recently hitting a seven-week high of 149.13. The British pound also slipped, losing 0.22% to end the day at $1.3083. This points to continued volatility in currency markets, where investors are assessing the risks and prospects for monetary policy in the world's largest economies.

BoJ prepares for rate hike: wage growth will be key factor
The Bank of Japan said wage growth is becoming more sustainable, which is helping to boost consumer activity. As companies across the country pass on higher costs to consumers, the Japanese economy is moving closer to meeting the conditions for raising interest rates. This could be a significant step forward for the Bank of Japan, which has long maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy.

Analysts say that any changes in central bank policy could significantly affect sentiment in global markets. Investors will be watching the Fed's speeches and news from Japan to understand how events will develop and what actions the world's largest central banks may take in the coming months.
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PepsiCo Leads Gains, Tech Boosts Nasdaq as Investors Brace for Inflation Surprises

Tech Returns: Wall Street Ends Day on a Positive Note
U.S. stock indexes rose on Tuesday, partially recouping losses from the previous session. Investors turned their attention back to the tech sector as attention shifts to upcoming inflation data and the start of the third-quarter earnings season.

Recovering from the Crash: How Did Wall Street Overcome Monday's Slump?
The major indexes fell sharply earlier in the week amid rising Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and a reassessment of U.S. interest rate expectations. Each of the three major indexes lost about 1%.

However, falling bond yields sent the market into a buying frenzy on Tuesday, with attention once again focused on high-growth stocks that benefit from lower borrowing costs. As a result, investors increasingly bought shares of tech giants, which are traditionally sensitive to changes in the cost of capital.

Tech on the Rise: Palantir and Palo Alto Lead
The information technology sector led the S&P 500's gains, adding 2.1%. The biggest contributors were Palantir Technologies, which jumped 6.6%, and Palo Alto Networks, which gained 5.1%.

The Magnificent Seven Are Back: Nvidia Sets the Tone
Among the "magnificent seven" tech titans, Nvidia has attracted particular attention. Its shares soared by 4.1%, recording the largest daily gain in the last month. Other tech giants such as Apple, Tesla and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) were also in the green, adding between 1.4% and 1.8%.

Slight Growth Amid Expectations
Despite the positive mood, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 managed to rise only slightly compared to last week's levels. However, the tech sector continues to attract investors' attention amid expectations of new inflation data and corporate earnings reports that could set the direction of the market's future.

Confident Rise: Major US Indexes End the Day on a Positive Note
On Tuesday, US stock indexes once again demonstrated upward momentum, recouping some of the losses from the previous days.

The broad-based S&P 500 added 0.97%, rising 55.19 points to 5,751.13. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.45%, adding 259.01 points to 18,182.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 126.13 points, or 0.30%, to end the day at 42,080.37.

Rates Are the Key Driver: What's Happening to Trader Sentiment?
Despite the positive momentum, investors continue to closely monitor any signals that could hint at the Federal Reserve's next steps in monetary policy. A decline in Treasury yields has been a catalyst for buying in the tech sector, but uncertainty around interest rates continues to dominate the market.

Throughout the year, market participants have been held hostage by the Fed, scrutinizing every macroeconomic report for hints of a possible policy shift. The main question on investors' minds is: when and at what speed will the Fed begin its long-awaited rate cuts?

Expectations shift: All eyes on inflation data
Last week, economic data, including a stronger-than-expected employment report on Friday, forced the market to slightly revise its expectations. Investors began pricing in a lower probability of an aggressive rate cut. Instead of a 50 basis point cut, most analysts now expect the Fed to limit itself to a 25 basis point cut at its next meeting in November.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a nearly 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November.

Crucial Benchmark: Inflation to Lead the Way
The next big move in this "expectations game" will come on Thursday, when the CPI data is released. It is these numbers that will be critical to understanding the Fed's next moves and how soon the regulator will begin to ease its tight policy. Any deviation from the forecasts can immediately affect the behavior of markets and investor sentiment.

In any case, interest rates will remain the focus of market attention in the coming days, and any changes in macroeconomic data will be closely monitored to see which way the scales will tip – towards further easing or maintaining tight policy by the Fed.

Markets at a Crossroads: Inflation and Employment Are Crucial Indicators for the Fed
Leading macroeconomic reports continue to be the focus of investors' attention, shaping expectations for the future policy of the US Federal Reserve. According to Jason Pride, head of investment strategy at Glenmede, it is the latest labor market data and the consumer price index (CPI) that will be the key benchmarks for the Fed ahead of their next meeting.

"If the CPI report comes in within the forecast range, this will be a signal for the regulator to limit the rate cut by 25 basis points in November," Pride said, commenting on the current expectations of market participants.

Sectoral confusion: who won and lost in the trading?
Amid the mixed movement of stocks on Tuesday, most sectors of the S&P 500 index ended the day in positive territory, but there were exceptions. Two sectors ended in the negative zone: materials and energy. The materials index (.SPLRCM) fell by 0.4%, which happened against the backdrop of a decline in metals prices. Investors lost optimism about possible measures to support the economy from the Chinese government, which led to a decrease in quotes in this segment.

Amid the general pessimism, shares of major Chinese companies listed on US exchanges also felt the pressure. For example, Alibaba Group, JD.com and PDD Holdings fell by 5.4%, 7.5% and 5.7%, respectively, following the decline of Chinese domestic indices.

Energy sector under attack: why did oil retreat?
The biggest losers were the energy sector (.SPNY), which fell by 2.6% - the largest daily drop since August 20. The reason is the correction in oil prices after their rapid rise at the beginning of the week. Concerns about slowing global demand and uncertainty around economic stimulus in China weakened support for oil, which was reflected in the quotations of energy companies.

Earnings season: the market awaits banking giants
Investors are also focusing on the third-quarter earnings season. This Friday, attention will be focused on large US banks, which will be the first to present their financial results. According to analysts at LSEG, the average earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies is expected to be around 5%.

PepsiCo Surprises: Earnings Beat Expectations
Among the companies that reported on Tuesday, PepsiCo stood out. The largest maker of beverages and snacks rose 1.9% after publishing adjusted earnings per share data that beat market expectations. Despite cutting its full-year sales growth forecast, investors took the company's results as a positive sign, which helped support the rise in its shares.

Amid growing interest in data and macroeconomic guidance, the market continues to balance expectations for Fed easing with concerns about global economic risks. The next earnings reports could be a determining factor for the future direction of stock markets.

Wall Street Trading: Investors Recover Losses Awaiting New Data
US stock markets ended Tuesday on a positive note after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted strong gains. With geopolitical pressure easing and tech sector signals up, stock indexes were able to partially recover from their previous declines. Total trading volume on US exchanges was 11.57 billion shares, below the 20-session average of 12.1 billion shares.

US Rally Overshadows Weak Chinese Stimulus
The rally in global markets was largely driven by a rally on Wall Street, which was able to offset investor disappointment over the lack of concrete support measures from China. Market participants are eagerly awaiting details on possible stimulus measures, but for now their attention is shifted to upcoming macroeconomic reports in the US and the start of the quarterly earnings season.

Technology lifts the index: S&P 500 is back in the game
US indices showed a confident rebound yesterday after falling by 1% the day before. A particularly powerful leap was recorded in the technology sector, where the S&P 500 (.SPX) added 0.97%, rising by 55.19 points, and closed at 5,751.13. In turn, the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) strengthened by 1.45%, jumping by 259.01 points and ending the session at 18,182.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 0.30%, increasing by 126.13 points to 42,080.37.

Monday's decline: what caused it?
The decline at the start of the week was caused by concerns about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a reassessment of expectations for the Fed's monetary policy. Strong data on the US labor market, published on Friday, increased concerns that the Fed will not rush to ease its policy, which led to a decrease in risk appetite among investors.

Waiting for a new signal: what will inflation show?
All attention is now focused on fresh inflation data, which will be published on Thursday. The consumer price index (CPI) will be an important marker for determining the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If inflation turns out to be higher than expected, this could reinforce current expectations that the Fed will take a tougher stance on interest rates.

Banking sector prepares for the start of the reporting season
Investors are also preparing for the start of the corporate reporting season. The largest US banks, which are traditionally the first to disclose their financial results, will give the start later this week. Attention will be focused on their comments on the state of the economy and the outlook for the monetary policy shift.

Looking Ahead: What's Next for Markets?
With US indices recovering and geopolitical concerns easing, investor sentiment remains heavily dependent on upcoming macroeconomic data and corporate earnings. Inflation, the labour market and the Fed's strategy will all shape the trading dynamics in the coming weeks, impacting investors' appetite for risk assets and, therefore, the sustainability of the current rally.

European Markets Under Pressure: What Went Wrong?
European stock indices ended lower on Tuesday as investors were disappointed by the lack of concrete details on China's new fiscal stimulus. Market expectations were not met, leading to a fall in stocks focused on Chinese demand, such as miners and luxury goods makers.

Global Indicators: Who Managed to Hold Their Ground?
MSCI's global share index showed a small gain, rising 0.15% to 844.96 points, thanks to a partial recovery in the US and Asian markets. However, the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.55%, reflecting the general mood of pessimism on the continental markets.

Hong Kong in the epicenter of turmoil: Hang Seng index falls at a record pace
The main disappointment was the dynamics of Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which fell by 9.4% - the largest drop since 2008. This happened after the head of China's National Development and Reform Commission Zheng Shanjie, who assured that the country's economy is "confidently" moving towards its goals for 2024. Moreover, he noted that the authorities intend to direct 200 billion yuan (about 28.36 billion US dollars) to support regional projects and investment in infrastructure. However, investors were expecting much more, as the lack of concrete steps and new support measures has raised doubts about Beijing's ability to effectively counter the current economic downturn.

Chinese Stocks Slip: Mistrust of Government Words
After the end of the national holidays, Chinese stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI300 showed sharp declines, falling by 4.6% and 5.9%, respectively. These losses effectively "ate up" a significant part of recent gains accumulated amid expectations of a large-scale economic stimulus. The decline in indices was a response to the uncertainty surrounding the Chinese government's plans and the lack of clear signals about further economic stimulus.

Bonds and Rates: The US in Waiting Mode
Meanwhile, the US Treasury market saw a slight decline in yields, reflecting investor caution in an uncertain environment. Market participants continue to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's signals, trying to understand how macroeconomic data and the regulator's positioning will affect the trajectory of interest rates.

What's Next? Investors Look for New Benchmarks
Amid a general decline in stock markets, investors have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The focus remains on the upcoming inflation and corporate profit reports in the US. In the coming days, it is these data that will determine the further direction of both US and international indices. Any surprises, be they positive or negative, could trigger significant changes in the markets, especially against the backdrop of fragile confidence in the prospects for China's economic recovery.

While markets are looking for new reference points, the issue of trust in the actions of central banks and governments comes to the fore: their decisions can either support investor sentiment or exacerbate volatility in financial markets.

The intrigue remains: markets are wondering what the Fed will do
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is estimated at 87.3%. However, there is still a small chance - 12.7% - that the Fed will choose to leave rates unchanged. Just a week ago, the market had a different view: expectations for a rate cut were almost fully priced in, but uncertainty about the size of the next step has reduced the likelihood of a more aggressive easing by 50 basis points.

US Treasury yields remain stable
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, a key benchmark for markets, fell by 0.6 basis points to 4.02%. Such a small change indicates continued caution amid ongoing speculation about the Fed's next steps and the macroeconomic situation in the country.

Oil: from recovery to correction
After the recent rally triggered by geopolitical risks, oil prices have sharply corrected downwards. The main driver of the decline is easing concerns about supply disruptions amid the military standoff in the Middle East and improving weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. U.S. WTI crude lost 4.63% to $73.57 a barrel, while Brent crude also fell 4.63% to close at $77.18 a barrel.

Middle East in Focus: Netanyahu Expands Offensive
Military tensions in the Middle East continue, weighing on global markets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that airstrikes had killed two key successors to the slain Hezbollah leader, in the latest escalation of the conflict. Meanwhile, the group's deputy leader left the door open for ceasefire talks, raising hopes for a possible easing of tensions. The comments came just hours after Israel expanded its offensive against Iran-backed militias.

Currency Markets: Dollar under pressure, pound and euro in positive territory
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was unchanged, closing at 102.48. Meanwhile, the euro showed a slight strengthening, adding 0.04% to $1.0978. The Japanese yen weakened by 0.07%, and the dollar rose to 148.29 yen per unit of the American currency. In contrast, the pound sterling strengthened by 0.13%, rising to $1.31, demonstrating confidence amid relative stability in European markets.

Uncertainty remains: what lies ahead for markets?
The current fluctuations in financial markets reflect the ambivalent mood of investors. Amid geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets, traders' attention is shifting to macroeconomic reports and upcoming central bank meetings. The publication of US inflation data and further signals from the Fed could become catalysts for both further growth and a new round of volatility on global markets.
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