Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The USD/JPY pair remained within its range while the markets are awaiting Janet Yellen’s speech within today. Aside from the Fed’s statement release, investors are also anticipating the release of Japan’s inflation data, which is expected to cause volatility in the yen’s current value. The BoJ might not be able to extend additional support to either the Japanese economy or to assist inflation rates while employers refuse to have a wage increase, causing stagnation in the country’s economic cycle. The IMF has also recently noticed that Abenomics was not able to use its three-arrow plan in order to boost the economic status in Asia.
The index of Nikkei 225 increased by 10% since June and the JPY has also increased in relation to the USD. This might become a problem for stocks since a strengthening yen would not attract exporters as it can decrease their foreign profits especially when converted to their local currencies. Investors are also worried that the Bank of Japan might dominate financial markets after the BoJ doubled its purchases of Tokyo-based shares, which can cause distortions in prices. This will also make it harder for investors to separate functional companies from non-functional ones, and can also cause misallocation of capital and can reduce incentives which are needed by companies to attain shareholder needs.
The Bank of Japan has previously attempted to revitalize the Japanese economy and put a stop to years of deflation by way of purchasing large amounts of assets, thereby flooding the economy with cash. This has mostly included corporate bonds, JGBs, and ETFs.

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The Aussie and the US dollar hover to the range bound periods raised with 11 points at 0.7624. The quantitative measures indicated a low level but will experience a slight effect because of the grand news of Yellen on her Jackson Hole speech. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group reported that AUD strengthened which influence the economic growth while exports from the region like coal and iron ore are consistent to have the largest volume of supply among countries all over the world.

Subsequent to the unsatisfactory rate of the AUD yesterday due to a lower-than-expected results of the infrastructures, Australian dollar still gained positively.

Australian reports have noted the statement from one of the largest government owned company of the continent, QIC Global Liquid Strategies with the head of the pension managers, Ms. Katrina King said that at US 77 cents, AUD is seen to be overvalued by 10% evaluated by the RBA's newly-developed in-house economic modeling.

While Mr. Roy Teo, an analyst from said that the ABN Amro Bank NV ended their recommendations during the closing of the third quarter since they perceived that the AUD will be bearish with a target price of 72 cents. Reports from Bloomberg issued a forecast from the RBA about the ease of movement on November and expecting the AUD to finished with 74 cents on year end.

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The GBP/USD pair decreased by 38 points as the dollar continued to surge after the statement release by the Federal Reserve last Friday. The GBP rallied by 0.5%, hitting its highest in three weeks at 1.3264 following Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech at Wyoming. The GBP decreased but is still above $1.31. Prior to the Fed statement, the GBP has been experiencing an increase after data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK had a 0.6% economic growth for the second quarter.


Investors are expecting low volatility for the UK market, as the market is closed on Monday due to the Summer Bank holiday. The August survey for UK’s construction and manufacturing data are expected to recover slightly after a massive downgrade in July, which can reduce the possibility of the country going into a recession next year. Investors and speculators are also confident that the UK economy will be revitalized after the Brexit referendum.


The UK will also be releasing its plans this week regarding its objective to retain its single market access on a per sector basis.

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The USD accrued by making a 2-week high in spite of the reports concerning the increment in price introduced by the Fed to be imposed for the next month. Furthermore, the yen resumed to subsidize the dollar.

When the pair heightened its rate on Monday, it secured a concrete resistance level at 102.50 but did not permitted any price gains. The current resistance of the doolar and yen is 102.50, the level of support identified at 101.40.

MACD presented a positive movement, the histogram denoted the buyer's’ strength and the RSI is seen in overbought area.

USD/JPY moves through the 4-hour chart and broke 200-EMA and ascended the moving averages of 50, 100 and 200. The trading pair seems bullish after the growth of its resistance level of 102.50.

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The AUD/USD pair went up by a few trading points but had limited gains as the US Dollar continued to increase its value. The release of the housing data yesterday caused building permits to go above as expected. In July 2016, the volume of approved houses went up by 0.2%, necclinching an eight-month steady increase, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.


In the area of New South Wales and Victoria, the total number of approved houses surged in July by up to 2.4% but has seen a drop in the area of Queensland, Tasmania, and Australian Capital Territory. The AUD is presently trading at 0.7571, a drop from its previous weekly high. Meanwhile the USD is steadily increasing after the Fed statement in Wyoming.


After the non-farm payrolls data were released last Friday, the USD index rallied as the market adjusts into a steady holding pattern.

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Subsequent to the weak data introduced on Thursday is the debilitation of the sterling whilst the dollar stay behind its strong position even when the Fed announced the imminent raise for the rates intended this current year.

The pair drawn against its weekly low throughout the trades done on Thursday but the British pound demonstrated a positive gains. GBP/USD resistance is positioned in the 1.3200 level, its support moves in the 1.3100 level.

The two main indicators had a negative feedback. The MACD signaled strength for the sellers, at the same time the RSI shifted in the oversold area. The pair price recurred under the 50-EMA in the 4-hour chart. It is speculated that GBP/USD will have a downtrend when the level of support falls into 1.3050.


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The USD went up slightly higher than the JPY during Wednesday’s session as investors are waiting for the latest updates on the economic status of the United States. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 103.259 points, going up by +0.30% or 0.304. Volatility and volume levels were on a below average level since majority of the currency players in the market are staying on the sidelines prior to the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, which will be determining the frequency and timing of the oncoming Fed rate increases.
Tuesday’s trading session saw an increase in the USD/JPY pair, after the consumer confidence report in August showed an increase at 101.1, its highest in a year. However, newfound concerns regarding the overall state of the Japanese economy arose as the release of industrial production figures for Japan surprised economists who were expecting two consecutive monthly gains, insinuating the possibility that the Japanese economy might be failing to sustain its progress for the third quarter.
Traders and investors are now waiting for the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Report, which is expected to show an increase in jobs offered by the private sector. A below average data could further weaken the USD/JPY, but the onset of the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday might help in alleviating possible losses.

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The results of the US ADP survey made an impact over the possibility of the price hike set by the Fed. Dollar is up on today's trading and perpetuated a bullish view. EURUSD attained 3 week lows in the rear of the ADP employment report favorable results. The pair is moving south with a descending trendline while the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs are drawn away to the pair price. The indicators stands in the negative area, MACD and RSI signaled a bearish pattern. Level of resistance exists at 1.1200, support is seen at 1.1130.


The EUR/USD is speculated to remain in the support level of 1.1130, in case that the currency pair failed to maintain its current support then the momentum investing will be altered with 1.1070.

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The EUR/USD pair went down by 6 points today as the unemployment rates in the European Union went up and the USD continued to strengthen. The PMI data for the eurozone also came out lower than expected at 51.7 points. The EUR is currently trading at 1.1151, indicating that the pair is currently at the bottom rung of its trading range.


The US jobs data showed an additional 177,000 jobs in the private sector last month, with a significant number of firms and industries adding up their payrolls. On the other hand, last week’s Fed statement are hinting at a possible interest rate hike in September, and if the payroll data comes out stronger than expected, investors should expect an increased volatility in the market.


During the past five years, the August data for US Non-Farm Payrolls has always been erratic, and it is expected to miss again for this period. Traders are then warned of sudden price moves among all asset classes due to the said positions, regardless of whether the data comes out as positive or negative.

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The EUR/USD pair whipsawed after the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report. The initial expected data was an increase of 180,000 jobs which led to a disappointment in the market as the pair topped out at 1.1252 before going below the the 10-day moving average at 1.1221 points. The currency pair’s exchange rate went up above the support line near the 10-day moving average at 1.1124 points. The RSI is currently reading at 46 points in the middle of the neutral range.


In August, the data for the US non-farm payrolls went up by 151,000, falling short of its expected release after the 275,000 upsurge in July. The 3-month average is presently at 232,000, while the labor data increased by up to 176,000 while the household employment data also increased at 97,000. Unemployment rates were stagnant at 4.9% with participation rates on the neutral at 62.8%. Meanwhile, the average hourly earnings for July surged by 0.1% from its previous rate of 0.3%.

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