Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The NZD/USD pair went lower during the last trading session, going down 12 points to trade at 0.7341 in the light of an impending interest rate increase by the Fed and confusions brought about by a decision from the Bank of Japan. On the other hand, China’s industrial production data went well above the expected range but did not seem to bring much support to the commodity currency. The Chinese industrial data increased by 6.3% in August as compared to last year, while retail sales data also exceeded expectations from market speculators.


Traders are now monitoring data from New Zealand, with the account balance due on Wednesday, economic data results scheduled to come out on Thursday, and the results of the consumer confidence survey set to be released on Friday. The NZD was also supported by an increase in food prices, which can cause inflation rates to ease a little bit. Bond prices from New Zealand also decreased, with yield points at 1.5 basis points, going higher towards the end of the yield curve.

NZDUSDH414.jpg

After the Board of Governors of the Fed released an announcement regarding their speculations to bring around the possible increase in rate for the month of September. The US dollar and Japanese yen confirmed a buy signal on Tuesday. On the other hand, the dollar recovered from the losses it endured on Monday. The buyers also drove the price within the level of 102.50. The financial instrument restored its position on top of the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs as indicated in the 4-hour chart while remained in a neutral status.


Resistance is placed at 102.50, support settled at the level of 101.40. MACD arrived at the negative zone and experienced a steep decline that signaled seller's strength. RSI bounced against the oversold condition.

USDJPYH414.jpg

The EUR weakened while the GBP further increased, causing the EUR/GBP pair to trade at 8.499 points, going down at .0003 or -0.035%. The pair movement has caused a technical reversal top, which signals that investor sentiments are about to drop. Eurostat has also reported on Wednesday’s economic news that the industrial production data decreased by 1.1% in June, with a 0.8% increase in May.



On the other hand, the UK employment data is showing a resiliency in the UK jobs market, even after the Brexit vote. The Office of National Statistics has reported an increase in employment rates, going up by 174,000 to 31.77 million in just three months since July. These employment rates are the highest in 40 years, with the increase in the number going above the expected range by economists. The unemployment rates also remained at a stagnant range of 4.9% in July. Meanwhile, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits went up by 2,400 to 771,000 last August.


However, wage growth data also experienced a gradual slowdown, causing economists and speculators to have unsteady opinions with the set of data released. However, this strengthening of British employment and jobs data may cause the Bank of England to pay less attention to interest rates and maintain its current stimulus once the bank announces it decisions regarding monetary policies on Thursday.

EURGBPH4.jpg

There is an ease of movement of the New Zealand currency although the country indicated a weaker-than-expected result of its economy's health.


The price of the pair is 0.7250 and able to trade with a higher price on Wednesday. The trendline continued to move in an upward direction even before a decline already occurred. The kiwi arrived at a lower position as indicated in the 4 hour chart because it is also currently dealing with a bullish tone 200-EMA.


The price is moving between the 100 and 200 EMAs according to the timeframe analysis. While the 50 and 100 EMAs recorded a lower ratio. The resistance is established at 0.7320, support stands in the level of 0.7250. MACD experienced a downturn which means that sellers have strengthened. RSI merges on the oversold condition. The kiwi and dollar is anticipated to present a negative tone in the market.

NZDUSDH415.jpg

The USD/JPY pair dropped 14 points to trade at 102.29 points, well within its recent trading range of between 101.90 and 102.50. The strength of the USD was offset by an impending meeting of the Bank of Japan next week, as well as a renewed demand for the safe haven currency. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Japanese subzero-rates policy had a significant impact in putting downward pressure on interest rates.


There are also signs that the BoJ will be attempting to sharpen its yield curve by increasing long-term rates and suppressing short-term rates. The Bank of Japan has already purchased more short-term government bonds, shifted its bonds and is currently buying lesser bonds. The percentage of long-term bonds went up by half of a percentage since July. However, in spite of the steepening of the Japanese yield curve, the difference between 10-year bonds and 2-year bonds is still half of its value before the effect of negative rates.


Japanese government bonds had their worst selloff in 20 years, especially since the BoJ will be planning to implement adjustments on the maturity range, causing yields to rise on longer-duration bonds.

USDJPYH416.jpg

Due to recent decrease in the oil prices the currency of Canada exhibited a weaker performance in comparison to the US dollar, risk aversion also eventuate though endowed on a limited level only. The pair signaled an upward trend near its upper field.


USDCAD undergone a short assessment and made a weekly high close to 1.3200 then bend over below the testing process. It can be observe that sellers are aiming for the 1.3200 level.
Moving averages are lowered down the price of the pair. As indicated in the hourly chart, the 50-EMA ascends and crosses the 100 and 200 EMAs. Resistance of the pair is at 1.3200, support entered the point of 1.3100.


The histogram established buyer's strength and stay on the positive area. RSI is place on the overbought region.

USDCADH416.jpg

The issue about the next cut rate of the BoE resulted the pound to hover within the pressured area. According to BoE, the cut rate will aid the improvement of the country's economy.


The sterling and dollar recorded a negative balance on Friday. Bearish investors were able to steer the market. GPB/USD had lose its winning track and crossed the 1.3200 level and hit the level of 1.3100 during the closed out trade. The pair as presented in the 4-hour lies below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The overall direction moving averages 50, 100 and 200 are descending.


The resistance of the pair is 1.3100,the support is identified at 1.3000. MACD indicated a negative downtrend and remained at its current level which affirmed the seller's strength. RSI represented an oversold condition.

The USD/JPY traded at 101.866, dropping by 0.390 points or -0.38% as traders and investors are preparing for the announcements of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan regarding their respective monetary policies on Wednesday.


Although the Federal Reserve’s announcement on its interest rate policies will be announced in the same period as that of BoJ’s announcement, analysts are speculating that the BoJ’s announcement on its monetary policies will have a greater impact on the market’s volatility and movement than that of the Fed’s announcement. However, this announcement might give cues regarding an imminent interest rate hike in December, which can strengthen the USD and cause the JPY to lose some of its value.


The Bank of Japan is also expected to discuss an extensive review of its monetary policy framework, which includes a combination of its asset-buying program with its negative interest rates.


Speculators are having difficulties with regards to predicting the BoJ’s movement. Some speculators are saying that the Japanese central bank will be changing its mechanism in exchange of a policy which will be combining an increased stimulus while giving protection to banks which are struggling with dealing with the negative effects of interest rates on their respective deposits.

USDJPYH420.jpg

Earlier on Friday the dollar demonstrated a sluggish performance because of the progressive US Statistics data which allowed another session for the Fed rate hike for this month.



The technical pattern determined a moderate bearish position. The euro and dollar are able to reach 1.1130 level of support. The EUR/USD price climbed toward the 1.1200 level which build up a selling pressure. The 4 hour chart illustrated the crossing of the 50-EMA over the 100-EMA in a downward direction, both EMAs are pared down while the 200 EMA sustained a neutral position.



The pair's resistance comes up at 1.1200, support occupied the level of 1.130.



MACD carried a negative trend which indicated strength for the sellers. RSI drawn on the area of the oversold status.


EURUSDH420.jpg

The USD/JPY pair went down by 0.169 0r -0.17% to trade at 101.744 points. The US dollar is currently in a tight trading range against the JPY during the last trading session as various market players are waiting for the Bank of Japan’s announcement regarding its monetary policies, as well as the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Tuesday.



The USD/JPY slightly weakened after the release of the US housing data, which turned out to be a disappointment for traders and investors. The housing data came out at a yearly rate of 1.14 million units last August, going way below the expected range of 1.19 million units. Construction permits also dropped by 0.4% to go down at 1.14 million units in August.



Speculators are saying that the Bank of Japan would have to implement programs with significant monetary policy easing and interest rate cuts in order to further weaken the JPY in the long-term frame. The Federal Reserve must also release a hawkish statement which can indicate a possible rate hike in December. The USD/JPY is also expected to appreciate especially if the BoJ releases a more aggressive monetary strategy combined with an expected 12% interest rate raise by the Fed prior to the central bank’s announcement. However, if the Fed remains cautious on its policies and refuses to raise its rates, then the USD might weaken and the BoJ would be unable to decrease the value of the Japanese currency.


USDJPYH421.jpg