Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The Aussie presented a sluggish stance yesterday as the Retail sales data showed negative results. The pessimistic input for the Chinese CPI had affected the currency as well.
Moreover, an attempt to surpass the 0.7350 level were unsuccessful.

Buyers advanced to 0.7385 where AUD/USD found some fresh offers and declined to 0.7350. Having tested the aforesaid level, sellers resumed its struggle to push the price downwards.

During the morning trades, the price tested 200-EMA as indicated in the 4-hour chart. It further stalls the bull’s movement to continue forward as it acted as the spot’s resistance.

The 200 and 100-EMAs are neutral while 50-EMA edged higher as mentioned in the same timeframe. Resistance holds 0.7400 level, support is seen at 0.7350 region .

MACD indicator dwindled and implied weak position against the buyers. RSI consolidated around the undervalued readings.

As the forecast says, bearish bias kept prevailing in the market. In the most probable scenario, if the price focus below the 0.7350 support level the short-term downtrend could possibly continue. The next target of the sellers are marks 0.7250 and 0.7300.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 11, 2017

Just like the majority of other currency pairs, the USD/CAD pair had ranged and consolidated all throughout the rest of the previous trading session without any definite direction. The traders and investors transacting in this particular pair seem to be uncertain with regards to its direction and is first making sure that the currency pair first takes a definitive step on its chosen direction before they do actual buying and selling with the USD/CAD pair. The general trend for the USD/CAD pair is expected to be on an upward direction, and corrections along the way should be seen as long opportunities.

During the previous trading session, oil prices took a turn for the worse as the agreements between oil producers failed to go as smoothly as originally planned, mostly due to the lack of proper implementation from both parties. As a result, the CAD was kept from rising value as oil prices subsequently crashed in value. This is why the CAD was unable to take advantage of the recent decrease in the USD’s value, and the Canadian dollar is now finding it difficult to make substantial progress in both directions,whether upward or downward.

There are no major news coming out from both the Canadian and US economy for today. However, Trump is scheduled to address the US in a press conference later today and the market will be relying on this particular address since this will be the determinant of the general direction of the US dollar. As for the USD/CAD pair, the currency pair would most likely be affected once Trump addresses how he will be handling the international neighbors of US, with Canada being one of them.

The sterling pound merely continued its previous activity of consolidation and ranging albeit with no clear direction as of the moment. The range of the GBP/USD is tightening further as we speak, and the market is expecting an explosion any time soon. However, this major event’s direction has yet to be seen but it can be assured that there is a movement by up to 300-400 pips. However, the risk for the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain in the downward direction due to the weak GBP and strong uptrend in the USD.

However, the recent strength of the USD is expected to be tested today during Trump’s press conference since the market will be closely monitoring Trump’s approach with regards to a number of issues. If Trump decides to take the diplomatic route, then this could trigger a boost in the value of the USD, thereby putting immense pressure on the GBP/USD pair, even though the sterling pound is still currently undergoing pressure from the various confusions surrounding the Brexit process.

The UK is set to release its manufacturing production data for today’s trading session, and this will be an indicator of whether the UK will be able to maintain its current trend of positive data releases which are not yet affected by the Brexit process. If this particular data comes out as negative, then this could increase the pressure on the sterling pound.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 12, 2017

The USD/CAD pair exhibited additional corrections during yesterday’s trading sessions as the US dollar weakened significantly following the press conference of president-elect Donald Trump. The market initially expected Trump to give hints on his proposed economic, fiscal, and monetary policies but instead disappointed market players after he merely talked about his personal interests and his business enemies. This then caused the dismal drop in the value of the dollar. The stock market was able to recover slightly towards the end of the session, but the same could not be said for the US dollar.

As oil prices managed to regain its losses during yesterday’s session, this has proved to be good news for the Canadian dollar since this lended the CAD some much-needed support and has triggered the USD/CAD pair to reach just under 1.3200 before settling to 1.3150 points. The economic news release from Canada came out better than what the market expected, and since oil prices are now looking good, these are expected to provide susbstantial support for the CAD in the long run. The USD/CAD pair could possibly test the 1.3000 level due to the recent weakness in the USD

For today’s session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy but we have the unemployment claims data from the US which will be released during the North American trading session. However, the most dominant market trend today would most likely still be the effects of the recently concluded press conference, and this is why the pair is possibly up for more weakness and volatility for today.

The US dollar took the spotlight yesterday as the market reacted wildly to Donald Trump’s press conference during the latter part of the New York trading session. The market was initially subdued during the London and Tokyo trading sessions since the market was generally looking forward to gauge Trump’s demeanor, as well as to decipher his administration’s plans for the next 4 years and to see whether Trump will actually be pushing through with his proposed policies during his campaign.

However, Trump went in for a very disappointing run as he displayed his usual tactlessness and brashness and even highlighted his desire to build a Mexican border within two years. This move was wholly unexpected by the market, and this caused the USD to crash and plummet across the board. The GBP/USD pair, which has been languishing in the bottom rungs of the market for the past 2 months, was able to immediately recover its losses and was able to push through 1.2200 points and even reached 1.2250 before finally settling at just under 1.2200 points.

Since there are no major news releases expected from the UK for today, the previous market trend is expected to dominate today’s trading sessions. The bulls could possibly profit from a solid upward move from the GBP/USD pair if the pound would be able to break through 1.2300. Otherwise, the currency pair could be merely subject to short-term corrections.

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The USD has attempted to regain its losses against the Japanese yen during the previous trading session as the market went unaffected by a slew of highly positive economic data from China, namely Exports and Imports data, as well as the Chinese Trade Balance data. During the Tokyo trading session last Friday, the USD was able to regain its upward balance following its recent decline, while buyer strength manifested positive bid stances which caused the pair to exceed 115.00 points prior to the opening of the North American session. But this upward movement eventually lost its momentum which then caused the USD/JPY pair to drop back to lower than 115.00 points. Traders also induced the currency pair to drop further to 114.00 points during the middle of the New York trading session. The USD/JPY pair was able to test the 50 EMA in the hourly chart. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY is situated at 115.00, while support levels are expected to be at 114.00 points.

For the next trading session, the USD/JPY pair could possibly decrease further in value and could hit 114.00 up to 113.00 points unless buyer strength could help the currency pair to consolidate just above 116.00 points.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 16, 2017

The USD regained its previous losses following the release of a highly positive Producer Price Index data, while the sterling pound dropped in value as a response to dollar strength and the recent uncertainties surrounding the Brexit process. The GBP/USD pair lost its momentum as it reached over 1.2100 during the early trading sessions last Friday. As the European trading session opened, the pound regained its losses and buyers induced the pricing of the currency pair to increase and reach 1.2200 points during the European session. However, the pair’s momentum faded almost immediately afterwards, with the GBP extending its losses up to 1.2118 points.

The moving averages for the currency pair were all able to sustain its bearish stance, and resistance levels for the GBP/USD pair are expected to be at 1.2200 points. Meanwhile, support levels are expected to be at 1.2100 points. The GBP/USD pair could revert back its losses if it manages to regain its strength at the 1.2200 trading range. If the currency pair will be able to exceed this particular value, then this could cause the bulls for the currency pair to drive the value of the pair towards 1.2300. On the other hand, if the pair drops and moves toward 1.2100, then this means that seller strength will be returning and will cause the pair’s price to plummet further towards 1.2000 points.

The release of economic data from the US last Friday lended some much needed support for the US dollar. The retail sales data dropped in value and failed to meet market expectations, while the data for the Producer Price Index came out on a highly positive note and exceeded market expectations. Meanwhile, the EUR continued to incur losses in spite of upbeat data coming from the European Union, such as the German Wholesale Price Index as well as the Spanish Consumer Price Index.

The euro tried climbing up during Friday’s session but was able to regain its upward bias during the Tokyo session after euro sellers encountered a price barrier at 1.0600 which then caused the EUR to drop in value. As the London session commenced, the EUR/USD pair rose and hit 1.0650 points, with the euro regaining all of its previous losses during the opening of the North American trading session. The price of the currency pair continued its climb and exceeded its moving averages as seen in the 4-hour chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are currently pointing in an upward direction, while the 200 EMA stayed within neutral territory. Support levels for the EUR/USD are projected to be at 1.0600, while resistance levels are expected to be at 1.0650 points.

If the EUR/USD pair is unable to exceed 1.0650, then this could cause selling interest for the pair to return. However, if the pair drops and breaks through 1.0600 points, then traders are advised to monitor 1.0550 and 1.0500 points. The EUR/USD will only be able to recover if it is able to sustain its stance at 1.0650 points.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 16, 2017

The USD/CAD remained to trade close on its range lows on the back of the dollar’s strength recovery. While the prices of oil appeared to have an optimistic result which assisted the CAD keep in the short term.

The pair plunge under the 1.3100 level following the extensive weakening of the dollar, however, it immediately found buying pressure which supported the pair to return on top of 1.3100.

Over the past few months, the USDCAD showed a consistent uptrend and every correction met a prompt and strong bounce which seems to be repetitive. The way towards the 1.400 medium target suggest a slow progress and the main uptrend supported the bulls to purchase every correction.

Recently, the pair have acquired more buyers and there are banks that started to advise their clients regarding the 1.40 target.

The strong Canadian data with a weak economy of the country is the reason why traders are directed to maintain a hard clean break under 1.3000 which signals that an uptrend has ended.
There are no major economic data from Canada for this day since it was a bank holiday in the United States. It is further expected for a consolidation and ranging close to the range lows today.

The GBP/USD closed the week with a sluggish stance and struggled to maintain its gains. These events put on some fears against the pound bulls because this will weigh over the Cable upon the return of dollar’s strength.

The pair stayed below the 1.2200 on Friday until the weekend took place which triggered indications for a hard Brexit. This caused for the pair to create a large gap and traded shortly under 1.2000.

The strong economic data of the UK shown for the previous months did not influenced the sterling’s value at all. However, it is deemed that the British currency is able to withstand its current situation and will accumulate gains afterwards. Looking forward, the bulls still needs to endure the worst impact as the bears tend to insurge. The hard Brexit cause risk and confusion for the investors which made them think twice prior pound purchase.

In the last two weeks, there are news about the UK's possibility to employ hard Brexit, whereas, PM May’s speech is highly anticipated within this week. This event brought the Britain’s economy a tough time but we believe the country will become much stronger eventually.

For today, we expect no new UK economic release and losses is further expected with a fundamental near-term target of 1.17.

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