Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The British currency preserved a bid tone close to its recent highs. The sterling gained strength following the favorable results for the BBA Mortgage Approvals along with the USD retracement.

The GBPUSD lacks momentum and failed to touch resistance region 1.2600. The bulls stalled near the 1.2565 level due to failure in driving the spot upwards. The pair is confined in a tight range around 50 pips amid the European trades. A bout of renewed selling interest developed amid EU morning trades.

The Cable weakened versus the greenbacks moving near 1.2500 area. The GBP/USD bounced back from the 200-EMA and surpassed the 50 and 100-EMA higher viewed in the 4-hour chart. The GBP resumed its development over the moving averages. The 200 and 50-EMA directed higher while the 100-EMA preserved a bearish pattern indicated in the same chart. Resistance is set at 1.2600, support pierced the 1.2500 mark.

The MACD indicator increased which confirmed strength for the buyers. RSI weakened and descended.

Bullish sentiment would likely prevail. A trend on top of 1.2550 would restore the bullish tone through 1.2600 – 1.2650.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 27, 2017

The Australian currency declined following the announcement made by the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe confirming that the Central Bank will not approve for an interest rate hike in the near future. Regardless of the positive trend in general, bulls were unable to climb higher.

Having posted its recent highs within the 0.7739 region, the price weakened and turned back towards 0.7700 where sustained a consolidated position throughout the night trades.
The increasing demand for the US dollar caused the Aussie to break under 0.7700 driving the AUD to 0.7650.

The 50-EMA was being tested by the price as indicated in the 4-hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 moving averages moved upwards. Resistance is shown at 0.7700, support is found at 0.7650. MACD decreased indicating a sell signal. The RSI appeared to be neutral.

The AUDUSD pair is required to beef up and take a grasp into the 0.7700 level as a means of strength recovery. The recent weakness is regarded as corrective. There is a chance to buy the dips.

A break under 0.7650 will ease the movement of the upward pressure. A move on the underside of 0.7550 will neutralize the buying pressure and open possibility for further weakening.

The market saw a very dismal durable goods data reading while Trump continues to further delay his long-awaited tax cut policies, thereby contributing to the further dwindling of the value of the US dollar. As a reaction to this particular phenomenon, the EUR/USD pair was able to reach 1.0630 points in a matter of a few hours and seems poised to move further.

However, the US dollar suddenly reverted its losses for no apparent reason at all and this caused the EUR/USD to drop further to 1.0600 before settling at just over 1.0580 points. Some market analysts are crediting this sudden surge in the dollar’s value to Trump’s previous statements regarding the infrastructure increases, a favorite campaign topic of Trump during his candidacy. Previously, there have been rumors swirling around that this infrastructure policies would not come into effect until 2018, but since Trump has already re-discussed this particular proposal, the market has since then been speculating that the increase might be implemented within the year which could help in keeping the buoyancy of the market. The USD has been able to revert its losses as a result but the real determinant here would be the rate statement next month as well as the FOMC rates.

Now that the market is slowly shifting its focus from Trump’s policies towards the move of the Federal Reserve, it is highly likely that the market’s movements will be relying on the Fed’s decision on when they will be implementing the next rate hike.

There are no major releases coming from the eurozone today but the US will be releasing its consumer spending data as well as its Preliminary GDP data today which could bring in added volatility to the USD and affect the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair is expected to continue consolidating with bullish undertones for today.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017

The USD/CAD had a strong bullish trade during the previous session after the bulls were able to regain its dominance over this particular currency pair. The bulls had previously attempted last week to gain control over the pair after the release of a dismal retail sales data from the Canadian economy but was eventually unable to do so after the release of a very strong CPI data. The bulls had also attempted to break through yesterday but has failed from last week’s range highs.

The currency pair’s strong resistance and support barriers of 1.3060 and 1.3000 respectively has led the market to believe that the USD/CAD pair is in for some major uptrend and is evident of the importance of the support barrier with regards to the struggle between the pair’s bulls and bears. Since the bears have constantly failed to break through this pair, the pair’s bears are currently in full dominance of the USD/CAD. The USD/CAD was previously consolidating within the 1.3100 barrier but a surge in the value of the USD helped in boosting the currency pair following’s Trump’s statement that he will be adding up the country’s infrastructure spending. The pair eventually increased in value after oil prices somewhat dropped in value.

This drop in oil prices could cause trouble for the USD/CAD pair in the short and medium term since Canada is very reliant on oil prices. The pair’s bears could become seriously affected once the dollar strength and weak oil prices come together since this could trigger the pair to move significantly upwards.

There are no major news coming from the Canadian economy today but the pair could get some volatility from the US consumer confidence data and Preliminary GDP which will be released today. The USD/CAD could possibly consolidate within 1.3100-1.3200 points with a bullish undertone.

The GBP/USD took a heavy hitting during the previous session as the pair’s bulls were unable to create a continuously good run for the pair since every time a bounce in the pair manifests, the pair immediately drops as it is met with major selloffs. There are still overshadowing concerns with the currency pair since the Brexit process is still ongoing, and this ensures that the GBP/USD pair will be unable to go higher for quite some time.

The GBP/USD pair was hit even more harder yesterday after rumors that Scotland is currently planning to implement another referendum in their favor in order to discern whether it would still be beneficial for them to continue becoming part of the UK. If this happens, then this would be disastrous for the UK economy since other parts of the UK might also be encouraged to do the same. This is probably the worst that could happen to the UK, especially since Scotland had initially voted to remain part of the European Union but was outvoted by the majority of UK members. But then further confirmation of this particular rumor never happened, and this caused the GBP/USD pair to bounce back from 1.2400 and is currently trading at just under 1.2450 points.

There are no major news releases expected from the UK today but the US will be releasing its Preliminary GDP data and consumer confidence data. The currency pair would most likely remain under pressure for today, with the 1.2500 barrier presenting a possibly limit to any kind of uptrend in the pair.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 1, 2017

The consumer price index of France inched up, however, it was unable to meet the projected level. While Italy’s rate of inflation remained consistent despite the forecasts about its potential decline. Moreover, the jobless rate in Germany is expected to decrease as mentioned by analysts and the German’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is assumed to remain steady.

The single currency was not able to make some reversal on Monday. Buyers touched the 1.0631 region by which the spot eyed some renewed offers. The price turned back under the 1.0600 level and posted its session lows near 1.0567 area amid Asian session.

The EURUSD attempted to break the barrier in the European hours. The EUR made a slight recovery few of its losses during the night upon approaching 1.0600 in the mid-EU trades.
The price is close to the 50-EMA as it positioned in the neutral zone during the earlier trading while the 100-EMA preserved a bearish pattern and the 200-EMA drove downwards.
Resistance settled at 1.0600, support plunge towards 1.0550.

The MACD is situated at the centerline. When the indicator pierced the positive region, the strength of the buyers will grow while an entry in the negative territory will signal sellers to dominate the market. The RSI appeared to be neutral.

Furthermore, bullish momentum is possible to reclaim. The next target of the pair is 1.0630. The EUR/USD may resume its ascending movement to 1.0650.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 3, 2017

The GBP/USD pair has been nursing its wounds during the past trading session as the currency pair is still at a loss on what it needs to do in order to propel its value higher up the chart. The sterling pound has been experience a lot of pressure this week, with the shadows of the ongoing Brexit process hanging over the currency, especially since it is still uncertain whether the impending talks between EU and UK leaders would go smoothly or otherwise. The invocation of Article 50 is drawing nearer and once the line is drawn, there will be no returning for both the European Union and the UK.

In addition to the pressure brought about by the Brexit, there have been also additional concerns that Scotland is planning to relieve itself from the UK, and though this has been nothing more than a rumor, it does not look like it’s going to die down any soon, and the USD is also undergoing a consistent rallying streak, another cause of trouble for the GBP/USD pair. The main reason behind the dollar strength is that the market is slowly getting used to Trump’s various eccentricities, and the Federal Reserve has also become increasingly hawkish, thereby cementing speculations that an interest rate hike is in the works.

The GBP/USD pair is expected to remain under pressure during today’s session. The UK is scheduled to release its services PMI data today but the market’s main focus would be Yellen’s speech at the New York session. The market will be monitoring whether Yellen will be giving out indications of a March rate hike, and if this is the case, then the dollar would possibly continue rallying and send the GBP/USD pair towards 1.2200 points.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 6, 2017

The US dollar made some minor adjustments on Fridays as it moves close to its seven-week high versus other majors. The growing expectations of US rate increase within this month provided support for the greenbacks. The focus was turned to the testimony of Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Moreover, the greens were able to maintain its winning position on Friday.
The major came in green posting renewed highs during the onset of EU session.

Buyers demonstrated an active movement this morning subsequent to the flat Asian trading as they drove the price upwards and gapped the level 1.3400. The USDCAD preserved a bid tone, touching its renewed highs eventually.

The 4-hour chart presented the price extend its development on top of the moving averages while the MAs sustained a bullish pattern. The 100 and 50-EMA executed an upward crossover towards the 200-EMA. Resistance is at 1.3470, support entered 1.3400.

The MACD increased which confirmed a buy signal. RSI have seen consolidated around the positive readings.

In case that buyers dominate the market, the next target is 1.3470. In turn, the USD would likely pull back near 1.3330 mark.

The downbeat data of UK non-manufacturing PMI coupled with the growing expectation for the rate increase in US occurred on the back of British currency’s 6-week low recovery versus the greenbacks. Moreover, the sterling resumed its period of consolidation during the Asian trades took place on Friday. The price traded range-bound lower in a tight range of 50 pips. The sellers were able to push the GBP towards 1.2200 as it became active throughout the morning EU trades.

The 4-hour chart continued its development under the moving averages while the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs drove lower. Meanwhile, the 100 and 50-EMA made a downward crossover to the 200-EMA. Resistance is seen at 1.2300, support highlighted 1.2200.

The MACD histogram weakened which indicates seller’s strength. RSI came in the oversold territory, en route south.

Technicals are expected to support a downward extension to 1.2200 level. The final break would suggest further weakness at 1.2150 region. The possible minor correction still predicted to happen if the spot appeared to be oversold. In order to ease the downward pressure, buyers may push the price through the mark 1.2300.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 7, 2017

The common European currency strengthened on the back of the dollar retracement since investors did some profit-taking subsequent to the rally that occurred last week. The greenbacks continued to gain strength amid growing expectations about rate hike in line with the Fed meeting scheduled on March 14-15. All eyes are now turned to French presidential elections.

The EURUSD stayed in a downward channel yesterday. Failure to break beyond the level 1.0550 would pull back some buying interest which could lead the spot upwards. Meanwhile, a soft tone near the USD provided an opportunity for Euro’s recovery.

The EUR have rallied into certain regions till it touched the upper limit of 1.0650 range. The barrier stalled bull’s activity as they initiated period of consolidation. The renewed selling pressure crop up during the late of Europe and push the major below the marks 1.0600 to 1.0580.
As outlined in the 4-hour chart, the 100-EMA were being tested by euro in the morning.
Moreover, the 100-EMA moved lower while the 50-EMA headed upwards and the 200-EMA maintained a mild bearish tone. Resistance lies at 1.0600, support entered 1.0550.

The MACD decreased confirming a sell signal. RSI oscillator is confined in the oversold readings and favoring a downtrend.

Maintaining a level under 1.0600 may regain the 1.0550 support level.