Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Uncertainty on the Brexit was offset by the US’ less than impressive consumer spending, prompting the Euro’s upturn earlier today.


However, the dollar regained its footing as buyers wait for Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s announcement that will hopefully clear up if Fed will move to increase the benchmark rate.


The pair hit a daily high of 1.1219, but pulled back to 1.1200, eliciting a bearish sentiment from investors.


The first support was at 1.1175 and 1.1119, subsequently, while the first resistance was at 1.1243 and 1.1299 subsequently.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is falling.


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The extensive demand for the dollar reinforced the pound/dollar pair. The Manufacturing PMI will be issued on Friday and so we propose to focus on it as well as we wait for Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney's performance on Thursday.

The price's first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. Meanwhile, the first resistance resides at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A non-confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display an ascending movement creating a "Golden Cross". The ascending motion will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

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The dollar experienced remarkable losses. The tremendous tender eloquence of the Fed oppressed the US currency. The external and internal risks has given emphasis by the regulator and stated that there would be a probable policy easing if needed. The statement of the regulator implies an essential enfeeblement of the dollar in coordination with its viable return to the economy stimulation. The ADP for March was issued on Wednesday wherein the report was 194,000 while the previous value was 214,000. The data occurred at the level of 200,000.

Disregarding the growth of risk appetite is not possible which is an aftermath of the growing long positions and high-yield cross-rates of the traders which gave pressure to the euro as a funding currency. The EUR/USD pair stabilized by the end of the trades.

The debt market dynamics correspond to the British currency rectification. In relative with their counterparts, United States and Germany, the 10 years UK government bonds yields decreased which also caused to diminished the appeal of the British assets. On Thursday, the performance of the Bank of England will be the center of attraction. The GBP/USD pair reduced by the end of the trades.

The United States and Japan's yields differential on government bonds reduced from November to February. In Japan, the Retail Trade revenue diminished by 5.4%. The 0% retail sales differential indicator of the Japan and US at the end of January managed to extend as far as level of 2.2% in favor of the latter in February. The USD/JPY pair slightly grew by the end of the trades.


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The Japanese Yen expanded in today’s early trading as Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s dovish remarks on Tuesday prompted investors to sell their greenbacks. The currency pair hit a daily low of 112.25.


Yellen’s speech on Tuesday to the Economic Club of New York said that caution must be exercised in hiking interest rates, lessening the possibility of a rate increase during Fed’s upcoming meeting in April. However, Yellen is optimistic on the growth of the US economy.


The dollar experienced a rally in the past weeks due to other Fed officials’ hawkish statements that implied they are eyeing to raise the numbers.


The speculation of a rate increase is now expected in Fed’s next meeting in June.


Yellen’s announcement put the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in a more difficult position, which is battling stagnant deflation amidst strong currency. BOJ’s negative interest rates set in January did very little to help the situation.


Eyes are now on BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to see what monetary tools he will use to ease the problem. The BOJ may be forced to further lower the interest rates during its policy meeting in April.


The first support was at 111.82 and 111.26 subsequently. The first resistance was at 112.62 and 113.19 subsequently.


The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is falling.



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The Australian dollar is riding the bulls while the greenback is too weak to follow owing to the sell-off after Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech on Tuesday. In fact, the Aussie dollar is gaining too much for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) liking.


AUD has now reached the level of 0.77, its highest in two weeks. Investors are selling their dollars and opting for Aussie ones as the latter has a better yield. However, questions are aloft on the RBA’s next move over the currency’s overvaluation.


RBA officials had previously said that the Aussie dollar is “getting ahead of itself” without significant signs of slowing down. Banks are also aiming for a lower domestic currency to successfully transition to a services-oriented economy from a mining-oriented one.


Yellen disappointed many central banks including the RBA after saying on Tuesday that tightening monetary policy should be approached with caution, slashing the hopes of many that they will see a rate hike in its policy meeting in late April.


Earlier this month, the RBA was forced to revise Aussie dollar expectations by the end of the year from US70¢ to US75¢. Furthermore, the current inflation is at 1.7 percent, missing the bank’s target of 2 to 3 percent.


If the RBA is to take a hawkish stance during its policy meeting on Tuesday, only two course of actions are in the horizon: to jawbone the Australian dollar or to cut bank rates, which now stand at a record low of 2 percent.


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After Janet Yellen's speech which supported a discreet strategy towards the interest rates raising, the dollar fell in opposition to almost all currencies. Her comments were presumed by the investors as rhetoric which cause the stock market to grow.

The price's first support occurs at 0.9580 and at 0.9500 subsequently. While it's first resistance resides at 0.9660 and at 0.9750 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a downward movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.


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The EUR/USD posted its highest rates in five months, a strong end to cap the first quarter of the year. Gaining more than 4.75 percent during the first three months, this is also Euro’s best quarter against the dollar in almost five years.


The pair is now trading at 1.1381 in a range between 1.1310 and 1.1412. The Euro is trying to break into the 1.14 level as traders wait for the upcoming economic data from the US side.


The US will release data on nonfarm payrolls later today. About 210,000 are expected to be added to the already strong labor market, but should it reveal more than the expected amount, the dollar may recover its losses since Tuesday.


It is also possible for the nonfarm payrolls to not pull the dollars up as


(The unemployment rate should hold steady at 4.9% following a series of increases in labor force participation.)


Fears on Britain’s exit in the EU and a high inflation rate buoyed the Euro against bearish greenbacks.


The Eurostat revealed yesterday that March’s inflation rate dropped by 0.1 percent from a -0.2 percent in February, far from the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target inflation.


Meanwhile, core inflation (which strips off the most volatile industry such as food, and energy) increased to 1.0 percent from last month’s 0.8 percent, the highest in six months. However, the core inflation’s rise is only attributed to businesses’ seasonal price hike for the Easter holiday and not necessarily to the whole month.


Earlier in March, the ECB cut interest rates to the red, and if needed, they will do more in the future, ECB governing council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday.


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The New Zealand dollar is maintaining a bullish trend against the US dollar despite lack of economic data released in recent days. It appears that the kiwi is only propped up by the dollar’s sell-off and not because of strong economic performance.


The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed interest rates in early March. Talks of another rate cut is rife as the RBNZ’s policy meeting in April comes nearer.


The bird landed at a daily low of 0.6890 in earlier session but has since bounced back to its days-long attempt of beating the 0.69 level and possibly hover pips below 0.70.


Employment data from the US is scheduled to be released later this session.


The first support is at 0.6853 and 0.6818 subsequently, while the first resistance is at 0.6939 and 0.6973 subsequently.


The MACD indicator is at a positive level. The price is declining.


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In the midst of the Construction Sector increase, the Gross Domestic Product of the UK in Q4 was re-assessed upwards. The business activity index occurs at 54.2 contrary to the reported 54.0 which is more than expected. The increase of the pair was finite due to fears about Brexit and the market could not disregard the probable demand on the oil market. The activity of the GBP/USD pair was merely influenced by the oil price.

The first support of price occurs at 1.4240 and at 1.4160 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4320 and at 1.4400 subsequently.

The price is along the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a descending movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal motion creating a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is revising.


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After months of rally, the Australian dollar finally experienced a setback as the week started with disappointing data and a slowly recovering US dollar.


Retail sales for the month of February was unchanged from the previous month’s 0.3 percent, a big letdown from the forecasted 0.1 percent increase.


According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of household goods and department stores posted the highest increases with 0.4 percent, while the food sector decreased by 0.2 percent.


During Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold onto its 2.00 percent interest rate, sending the AUD to the bears. RBA governor said in a statement that the “economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom.”


Contrary to an expected verbal intervention to weaken the AUD, Stevens did not jawbone the currency which has risen steadily since the start of the year, even sounding dovish toward its appreciating value.


Inflation hit a seven month low of 1.7 percent while the RBA’s target range is from 2 to 3 percent. Trade deficit rose to A$3.410 billion in February from January’s A$3.156 billion. It was projected to shrink to A$2.600 billion.


After days of losses, the USD picked up over the weekend due to a positive nonfarm payroll that further strengthened the labor market.


The pair touched 0.7536 today, recording a five-day low. Heads are now turned to Fed’s meeting later today.



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