Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The GBP/USD pair was unable to move past its resistance level of 1.2950 points, causing the pair to retreat under this region where it is currently situated. The construction PMI data was released yesterday, and this particular bit of data had exceeded initial market expectations, adding up to the string of positive economic data coming in from Tuesday’s session. These series of data was able to help keep the sterling pound under its bid price and traded in a relatively steady trading manner during the first few hours of yesterday’s session.

The ADP employment report as well as the non-manufacturing data came in next, and these helped to further strengthen the stance of the USD as they both were able to meet expectations. The FOMC minutes were then released hereafter, wherein members of the central bank chose to snob the results of the Q1 GDP data, which was taken as a bullish mark for the USD since a large-scale buy was triggered during the NY session. The GBP/USD pair then plummeted through 1.2900 points and is now trading at 1.2875 points. The pair’s support levels are situated at 1.2850 points and since the NFP is expected to come in during yesterday’s session, the cable pair is expected to be able to maintain its hold on this particular region while it continues to consolidate.

For today’s session, we have the UK economy’s services PMI data as well as the US economy’s unemployment claims data, both of which are expected to induce volatility in the currency pair. The market is not expected to have much activity today as there is an influx of economic data scheduled for tomorrow.

The USD/JPY pair traded just within the reaches of its six-week high as the Fed refused to remove the possibility of a June rate hike, although the country’s economic growth weakened during the previous quarter. The Fed chose to maintain its current interest rates and had highlighted the positive outlook for the labor market during its two-day meeting, which could possibly be an indicator that at least two more interest rate hikes are scheduled to be carried out within the year. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous trading session at 112.759 points after increasing by +0.69% or 0.0770 points.

The current Fed statement and the previous statement do not have any stark contrasts except for the central bank choosing to ignore the GDP data this time. The futures markets are now pricing in a 93% probability that the Fed will be implementing an interest rate hike this coming June. The next FOMC meeting is set on June 13-14 which will be followed by a press conference from Janet Yellen. Based from the Fed’s meeting minutes released yesterday, the Fed could possibly raise its interest rates by up to 25 basis points up to three times in a row before the year ends. If this indeed happens, then the US dollar would eventually become a very attractive and a very lucrative investment for market players.

For today’s session, market volatility will not be expected to to increase since the majority of market players will be saving their energies for the release of the NFP report this Friday.


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The New Zealand dollar dropped during the Thursday session. The market has gone bearish because of the commodity market and the jobs data to be released. Traders should not forget that the price trend for the kiwi dollar would be influenced by the commodity market. The current trend could go higher reaching the 0.68 handle and short-term surge would mean selling opportunity. If the price breaks lower than the psychological level, the price would go downward instead. Traders should anticipate high volatility in the market but would be favorable for the U.S. dollar since the awaited jobs data to be released today.

The Future market also influences the currency although would not be directly influenced with any market. One could find a correlation between milk futures and the kiwi although it would not do much since the liquidity isn’t that high. The safe way is to compare with other commodities to determine how this currency will move and its overall tone in the market and wait for a short-term surge. It is possible to reverse the trend when it breaks higher than the 0.69 level and turn bullish as a follow through and climb higher.


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The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a high volatility during the Thursday session. The market tried to break higher than the 113 level but failed that makes it much safer to be patient and wait on the sidelines until the jobs data has been released. Moreover, the bullish tone will persist in the long term.

There is a significant support found close to 112.50 level which may be better to move upward although this will be unexpected. The 112 region will be massively supportive but it still might shift when the jobs data results is negative. The labor report is anticipated to give 185,000 jobs for the month of April which the market in now focused on.

It is most likely that this pair will be influenced by the jobs data and if the results are positive, the pair will follow through.if the price breaks higher than the 112 level will be a relevant move while a break at 113 level could further bring the price at 115 level which is the former peak that is in consolidation. More noise in the trend would also impact the trend and make it more difficult to trade during the day. If traders would sway with the ongoing volatility, there is a chance for long term trades. Traders could buy the pair multiple time as it moves towards the 115 handle.

There is not much pressure anymore for the USD/JPY pair as its reach new weekly top during the Thursday session. The uptrend halted at 112.75 which is the psychological level for yesterday and the following morning. Buyers tried to test the 113.00 level prior to the New York opening. The resistance level resides at 113.00 level while the support is found at 112.00 region. The 4-hour charts are showing positive signs. If the bulls were able to break higher than the 113.00 level in the next sessions, the next possible target would be at 113.50 level.

The New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar initially rallied for the past week. The 0.69 level was seen to give significant resistance which hints the possible continuation of the uptrend. However, this is not a good indication for commodities which highly influences the currency. On a good side, the crude oil surge for a while during the Friday session. Yet, the commodity market could remain subdued which would then decreased the demand for kiwi. It won’t take long that this pair would further decline. If the pair breakdown lower than the 0.6850 level, the next level would be at 0.67.

Short-term rallies for this pair opens more opportunities which will soon push forward. The pair hovers at 50% Fibonacci retracement level and it is anticipated to have a lot of noise down beloW. However, if the pair breaks down from the expected level, this implies that the pair is not strong enough.

On the other hand, if the pair breaks more than the 0.7030 level, the price could extend up to 0.73 handle or higher. The pair is much more directed to the go downward instead. Traders should look out for commodity market which will influence the currency in the next trading sessions and it may be difficult to go long for long-term in this pair.


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The British pound paired with the Japanese yen rallied during the Tuesday session. The market reached the 147.50 level and tries to reach the 148 handle. There is still a lot of space to climb higher towards the next target of 150 handle. Later on, the 147 level could become a support level.

Amongst a basket of currencies, the Japanese yen sells off the most and sensitive to risk appetite as a whole. Traders should not forget the pair to be volatile and long-term deals is predominant in traders.

The market should also monitor the stock market which is performing well relative to indices such as the S&P 500. Although, traders should expect volatility as it climbs higher and it seems that there is sufficient buying pressure to push the price higher. Nevertheless, reversals open opportunities to gain for this pair, especially for yen related market. It may not be advisable to sell this for now with buyers leading the market. There is still risk appetite which could induce the pair to further go up.


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The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen rallied as it broke at 114 handle. This would most likely move higher towards the 115 level which has been the peak of the last consolidation region and it would not take that long before the market reaches it. It is anticipated for a reversal to occur from now and then which will serve as buying opportunities in the market, most especially that there is a tone of bullishness seen in the trend. Volatility fluctuations is also expected that determines the weakness of the yen.

Price reversals could turn into an opportunity for this pair especially since the Japanese yen performs well in the market. Although, It may not be favorable to go short in this pair. The 113.30 region is being strongly supportive but there is a lesser possibility to go low to this level. It wouldn’t take long for buyers to return.

If the price breaks higher than the 115 level, this could move towards 118 handle. Although, it needs more momentum from the traders to reach this level. Hence, it may not be good to sell this pair for now.

The U.S. dollar paired against the Canadian dollar started flat during the Tuesday session as the oil market being calm but not too long. It was reversed and directed downwards. Another factor is the Canadian building permits that brought movement following its negative reports.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar surged against the Canadian dollar as it breaks over the 1.37 level. The Resistance level was retested at 1.37 region and the 1.3750 level is being strongly resistive that prevents the pair to climb higher. The market has been very bullish for a long term and it won’t take long before the market reaches the 1.38 handle. A few days ago, there has been a selloff of this pair and if this occurs again, the pair could further go up.

The pair will continue its downtrend from 1.3793 and the uptrend from 1.3641 is a form of consolidation in the downtrend. This could be followed by consolidation towards the next target of 1.3550 level. A break over the 1.3793 region could trigger the price to go up towards 1.3900.

Reversals could attract buyers in the lower channel especially towards the 1.37 handle which has been a resistance before. It is possible for this level to turn into support region for the pair. The long-term trend becomes bullish although the oil market has uncertainty.

The crude oil inventories are about to be released to say which would most likely affect the trend. Reversals could serve as buying opportunities for this pair although the greenback is more favored over the Canadian dollar. Concerns in Canadian housing would add more hesitancy to the interest of the market to Loonie.


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The EUR/USD pair continues to exhibit an intermittent trading action, which has been the pair’s dominant price trend ever since the beginning of this week. The market had initially expected the currency pair to start off this week with a bang and consistently exhibit a positive trading stance throughout the week due to Macron’s recent victory in the French polls, but as of now the currency pair is on the backfoot as its bulls have decided to retreat and take out profits in order for them to purchase the EUR/USD pair lower as it continues its correction.

In addition to the EUR/USD pair’s weakness, the greenback has also been strengthening across the board as traders are now about to conclude their June rate hike pricing. All of these factors has caused the EUR/USD pair to exhibit corrections at under 1.0900 points. However, during the past two days, the currency pair has been either ranging and consolidating or exhibiting a choppy price action, which is an indication that the market is attempting to create its own base. The currency pair is expected to create a base for another bullish attempt as the after-effects of the most recent rate hike is now losing its relevance and the improvements in the EU economy is now starting to become more evident in the market.

For today’s session, there are no major news releases from the EU although the US economy will be releasing its unemployment claims and PPI data, although these are not expected to make a significant dent in the current status of the currency pair. The EUR/USD pair can be safely expected to remain its choppy action at the 1.0850 trading range throughout the day.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: May 12, 2017

The Australian currency showed some interesting trading session and had an initial downturn corresponding with the actions of the New Zealand dollar. A bit of rally had started as we look forward to found further resistance within the 0.7380 handle.

The Aussie appeared to be caught off guard as of the moment because of the rally occurred in the gold markets along with the partial decline of the US dollar.

In case that the precious metal would reverse and drop, the AUD will continue to weaken as well.

The commodity currencies may not be so attractive at this time since some of them are quite falling considering the CAD and NZD to have a softer stance while the Norwegian Krona also appeared to be dull. Not to mention the Mexican peso which starts to be weak again.

In order to initiate the selling, exhaustion and near-term rallies are to be found that may allow for a successful break above the region 0.7425.

Moreover, the volatility would extend that will offer value for the greens in which seems favorable for us. In case that we create a gap under the lows once again, the market is projected to move near the 0.72 handle, en route 0.70.