Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The EUR/USD pair looks poised to make another attempt at reaching its current range highs as the currency pair was able to take advantage of a correction in the greenback. This upward pressure in the currency pair is expected to last well into the first few days of June, particularly the 2 most essential trading days for this month.

The dollar experienced corrections on the back of a couple of disappointing data from the US economy. The first one was the Chicago PMI data, which failed to meet its expected economic reading and the pending home sales data, which also disappointed the entirety of the market yesterday. This triggered a large-scale dollar selloff against other major currencies and has enabled the EUR/USD pair to advance towards 1.1200 and was even able to reach 1.1250 points throughout the course of the NY session. Since the Fed had previously clarified that the implementation of the June rate hike will be wholly dependent on the results of the incoming economic readings from the US, the market has become very sensitive to readings coming from the US economy, with even minor readings inducing major volatility levels on the market especially if these comes out as very disappointing for investors. Eventually, the PMI data was revised to a much higher reading and this helped to cushion the blow of the fall of the USD, although this has left an impression on the market with regards to the adverse effects of a negative reading to the value of the US dollar. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be in peril in spite of its drop in value being temporarily stalled.

For today’s trading session, there are no major news releases coming from the EU economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data and its ADP Non-Farm Employment change data during the NY session, which is a precedent to the release of the NFP report on Friday. This particular bit of news is then expected to induce major volatility levels and a move of the currency pair below 1.1200 points should be a signal for the pair’s bulls to rethink their positions.


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The Euro against the British pound was highly volatile during the Wednesday session. It is being in tested in the upper channel and a pullback was seen reaching the opening for the day. The market is attempting to gain sufficient impetus to break higher than the 0.88 level followed by 0.90 level.

In the long-term, this pair seems to be much stronger although there is a lot of noise found in the upper channel causing the choppiness of the market. The market might move slower especially with various major reports from the European Union and Britain. Same goes for Brussels and London which will be the center of attention and this market can be easily affected by these outside forces.

It won’t be long before this pair rallies upward and it is advisable to either buy after a breakout or be more careful and wait on the sidelines. Selling might be more difficult for this pair neither placing a short-term orde. However, a move lower than the 0.86 handle is a good thing although it seems that the buyers dominate participants but might now last in the current condition of the market.

The USD/CAD pair was able to advance further towards its range highs during the previous session in spite of the greenback suffering blows against other major currency pairs due to a series of disappointing economic data from the US economy. The loonie is now trading at just above 1.3500 points which is considered to be a very essential trading region for the currency pair. However, the market has yet to see whether the USD/CAD pair will indeed manage to go even higher and reclaim its bullish price action or if it will correct and return to its previous trading range.

This surge in the value of the USD/CAD pair has been mostly attributed to a string of weak economic data from Canada. As the Canadian GDP was released during yesterday’s session, the annual and quarterly readings for 2016 disappointed the market in spite of a very positive monthly reading. This was far worse than what the market had initially anticipated and has caused the loonie to correct and the USD/CAD pair to increase further in value. Oil prices also dropped while the Canadian inventory data showed a solid draw in addition to an added increase of Libyan production data. This caused both the Canadian dollar and oil prices to drop and was more than enough for the currency pair’s bulls to help prop up the value of the USD/CAD pair past 1.3500 points where it is currently sitting as of the moment.

For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of unemployment claims data and the ADP employment report from the US economy, both of which are of utmost importance since this serves as a precursor to the incoming NFP report due tomorrow. The oil inventory data is set to be released today, and this, together with the NFP report will most likely determine the short-term price action of the USD/CAD pair.


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The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar did not have a good trading session on Thursday. It breaks at the 0.74 level followed by a rebound towards the 0.7420 region. Since then, the market declined and broke to a fresh new low. Currently, the pair is depreciating and makes it more vulnerable to further decline especially since the jobs data will come out today.

If the jobs data met the expectations, then this will most likely push the currency lower towards the 0.73 handle. However, if the pair moves in the upper channel then this would open opportunities to buy this pair especially if it breaks higher than the 0.7475 region. Although, we cannot be certain of now if this would occur since the market is still undecided on which direction to choose.

The next target for this pair is 0.73 level with the tendency to move forward which makes it more favorable for selling. The market already anticipates this and it will be good to follow so.
It seems that the currency is having a difficult time while the New Zealand dollar is performing better. Even so, traders still opt for the Aussie but traders should be cautious in buying this pair in the current low levels.

Overall the pair is sold-off by traders and it is reasonable to move along with this move. However, if this pair opens for the 0.73 region, this will push the price to lower levels immediately.


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The Kiwi dollar declined in the day during Thursday trade while testing the mark 0.7050. Despite the choppiness of the market, the New Zealand currency have the possibility to beat the Australian dollar. It does not mean that the market will establish an optimistic stance, rather it will become more resilient. The market will search the level below 0.70 because this holds a nice large figure, however, the release of US employment figures on Friday involves plenty of noise.
The market will found the resistance on top of the 0.71 handle and the rally will soon fade away because the mentioned region seems resistive. As indicated on the higher level of the chart, some type of channel are trying to develop.

The NZDUSD is not easy to deal with because it is the least liquid among major pair and when the announcement is made, it would likely to have a violent move. With this, it is suggested to steer clear from the commodity-linked pair as this could lead you to pain if you did not take proper caution. The ability to break down under 0.70 region would break down significantly. It signals a longer-term indicator, either way, it could toggle continually moving a gradual ascending grind.

As the market maintain a choppy stance, lots of opportunities were also offered.

The GBPUSD declined on Friday and face through some volatility as the U.S. employment figures released with a lower than anticipated results.

The market now appeared to hover below the 1.29 handle considered as a major level. The ability to break on top of the said region would lead the market towards 1.3050 area which provided a significant resistance.

Buying on the dips remain to be the most suitable way in playing the market beneath 1.2850 that has been offering an amount of support. Meanwhile, a break over 1.29 range would trigger a continuous higher movement. In the long term, buyers will still get involved and show further strength sooner or later.

Headline risk could still remain since concerns regarding British exit keep forging ahead. This might influence the sterling in any moment. Ultimately, the pair can find a bottom upon staying beyond the level 1.2750.

Moreover, the built-in bid resumes in regards to the GBP. An attempt to move ahead the 1.3450 handle should be done. However, lots of issues and concerns surrounds the British economy, therefore it may take some time to reach the target. Selling is ruled out except when we cut through down the 1.2750 area.


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The EURUSD moved through an upward direction on Friday after the release of weak data on employment report. The U.S yields further weakened as prices ascended at a faster pace compared with the European bonds. This made the euro lure attraction of investors prior the ECB meeting scheduled next week.

The European producer price manifested stronger figures, beating expectation which paved the way for a higher rate on the pair. The pair had broken out on the back of a bull flag formation which serves as a pause to refresh higher.

The prices increased by 1.1282 region just shy of 1.1299 close to November 8 highs. The next resistance target is found at the mark 1.1365 near the highs of August 2016. The support reached 1.1206 area around the 10-day moving average.

The momentum came in neutral while the MACD histogram printed nearby the zero-index level whereas the index appeared to be in a flat trajectory suggesting for a consolidation.

The USD/CAD pair continues to exhibited a very tight price action as the pair’s bulls and bears continue to fight out for the control of the currency pair and is expected to remain as the pair’s dominant trend in the short-term period. The pair has been trapped in a very limited range ever since the currency pair managed to push forward past 1.3500 points with buyers dominating the 1.3400 trading range.

During the past few days, oil prices have remained stable, thereby decreasing the amount of leverage it gave to the Canadian dollar and was one of the reasons why the loonie was unable to take full advantage of the dollar weakness which was due to a series of dismal US employment reports last week. Oil prices has also continued to be very disappointing due to rising tensions in the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries and has subsequently diminished its support for the loonie. In spite of the pair making a headway towards 1.3460 for a short while, it was almost immediately met with several buys, causing the USD/CAD pair to retreat towards 1.3500 points, where it is expected to stay put at least in the coming days. The market is now preparing itself for the trading sessions on Thursday and Friday as the currency pair would most likely undergo a volatile trading session due to Comey’s testimony as well as the release of the Canadian employment report on Friday. This is why traders are advised to remain in the sidelines until such time that a break shows up on the pair’s range before inducing any kind of progress in their trades.

For today’s session, there are now major releases from both the US and the Canadian economy and the USD/CAD pair is expected to continue consolidating throughout the duration of today’s session.


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The New Zealand broke in the lower channel during the Monday session. Later, the trend bounced off to fill the gap then declined again. There is massive support found in the 0.71 below which triggered the market to rise again as it reached the former break level. Currently, the market is attempting to move higher as it gains momentum to reach the 0.7150 region which would hint a bullish sentiment.

The market could also retreat from this level towards the 0.71 handle once more. Overall, there will be high volatility and persist for some time in the market since the New Zealand dollar is relative to commodities market which always changes. Hence, the currency is expected to be traded with a choppy environment.

Buying on the lows is advisable for this pair and is not surprising for them to return as the trend moves in a downtrend. However, shorting this pair may not be the best move. If the price breaks lower than the 0.71 handle, the next move would be to go downward toward the 0.7050 level.

Nevertheless, the market will be very choppy driven by geopolitical risks and in consideration of its sensitivity opting the U.S. dollars as a safety currency while the kiwi being the riskier one in this pair. Volatility is also anticipated to persist in either direction it goes.

The British pound against the Japanese yen broke on the lower side during the Monday session which was upturned indicating bullishness in the trend. It is directed towards the 143 level and higher up that fills the gap. There is a robust resistance seen in the previous trades that makes the reversal unexpected. However, if the price is set higher, this would persist to an elevated level pointed to the 144 region.

It is anticipated to have volatility for this pair regardless of the next move since the market is in a “risk on” or “risk off” sentiment. Moreover, the British elections worsen the situation as it affected the British currency that brings unpredictability in the market until the election on Thursday. Other global economic concerns will also affect the trend.

Volatility is the current focal point of the market and if it gaps more than the 143 region, more buying opportunities will come out for the market. However, if the election polls showed conservatives leading in Britain, this push this pair aimed higher with chances to break higher than the 144 region then shift towards the 145 handle.

Traders should not expect that trading this pair would be easy that makes trades on small positions to be ideal for this pair or one could opt to wait in the sidelines as GBP/JPY is one of the pairs risky to position in the market.


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