Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Initially, the main drivers for the pound/dollar pair firstly, is an escape from risks, second is decline in oil prices and lastly is the poor Service PMI in the country. In March the index increase to 53.7 from 52.7 when the market was expecting an increase to 54,0. Apparently, the descending movement was also in the Bonds Market which made the 10-year UK government bonds yield to diminish. The Sterling grew by the end of the trades.

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a descending movement. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is rectifying.


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The New Zealand dollar is gaining against the greenbacks after the Federal Reserve indicated that an interest rate increase is highly unlikely this month. The kiwi dollar posted gains hours before the release of Fed’s minutes of its last meeting.


The minutes was released today and showed that the majority of the board members agree that rate hikes should be approached with caution, sending the US dollar to bearish territory after a slight recovery in earlier sessions.


The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price index released on Wednesday was also a good news for the bird especially for New Zealand’s main export, whole milk powder, whose prices rose by 1.5 percent. Cheddar prices also moved up by 10.5 percent. The entire GDT index climbed by 2.1 percent after last reading’s 2.9 percent fall.


China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, will release trade data and its Q1 GDP next week. This will inject further volatility into the kiwi dollar.


The pair is now trading at a range of 58 pips. The first support is at 0.6799 and 0.6765 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6868 and 0.6902, subsequently.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is rising.


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A poor Industrial Production forecast was presented to the market wherein the index missed 0.5% while the report was 1.8%. Yellen's statement about the external risks and the decelerating rate hike were implied in the issued Fed minutes. The market was hoping for the Fed to lower their rate hike in September wherein they expected for 46.5%. There is also presumptions and the market gives 50% that the rate hike will take place in November and 52.5% that it will happen in December.

The main occurrence of Thursday were the declaration of the ECB minutes and Mario Draghi's statement. The Initial Jobless Claims was 267,000 while the report was 270,000. However, the Consumer Credit Change was $17,22B while the report was 14.74B.

The House Prices forecast for March was issued by the UK wherein the housing prices grew by 10.1%. However, the economists expected that the inflation rate would slow down a bit to 9.5%. In monthly terms, the housing prices increased by 2.6%. Nevertheless, analysts expected the prices to increase only by 0.7%.


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The UK investors were perturbed by the poor macroeconomic data. Because of the seasonal correction which came at 1.1%, The Manufacturing Production for February decreased wherein it was way farther than the reported 0.2%. Moreover, from 12.16 billion pounds in January to 11.96 billion pounds in February, the Britain Trade Balance Deficit lessened.

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

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The Euro recorded a yearly high of 1.1453 on Sunday after the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that the board is leaning to another rate cut. The pair is now trading within a range of 1.1395 and 1.1427.


The exchange rate is hovering just above 1.14 level at 1.1411.


The central bank has slashed interest rates to -0.4 percent in early March as it struggles with a negative inflation rate of -0.1 percent, a far cry from the bank’s target of almost 2 percent.


During his speech on Thursday, ECB president Mario Draghi reiterated that they are willing to do “whatever is needed” to lift inflation which is not expected to hit the target until 2018. The central bank will hold a policy meeting on April 21.


Meanwhile, the USD is still weak after Fed implied that a rate increase is unlikely in the upcoming policy meeting. Fed Dallas’ president Robert Kaplan will participate in a question-and-answer session later today and we are waiting for hints of the bank rate’s possible future.


This week is packed with many entities publishing economic reports. US retail sales will be revealed on Wednesday and the consumer price index of the US and Eurozone will be published on Thursday.


Germany, France, and Spain will also release data after data later this week.


The first support is at 1.1373 and 1.1316 subsequently, while the first resistance is at 1.1444 and 1.1501 subsequently.


The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is rising.


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We see a weakening Australian dollar against the USD as recently released data proved that the first quarter has been sluggish despite the overvalued currency.


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the soft currency as board members have been saying that they prefer a lower exchange, although they did not cut interest rates in the latest policy meeting.


Australia’s home loans released on Monday showed a 1.5 percent rise against a 4.4 percent drop in February, failing to reach the 2.0 percent projection.


China, Australia’s largest partner in trade, also helped AUD’s price decline with an unchanged year-on-year inflation rate of 2.3 percent in March, missing a forecasted 2.5 percent. Wholesale prices contracted for the 49th consecutive month by 0.4 percent.


Investors will have a lot to look forward to as Australia’s consumer sentiment index will be published on Tuesday and data on the country’s labor market will be released on Wednesday. RBA’s first financial stability review will come on Thursday.


The AUD is trading 0.7535 against the USD. The first support occurred at 0.7527 and 0.7489 subsequently. The first resistance occurred at 0.7608 and 0.7649 subsequently.


The MACD indicator is in a negative position and the price is falling.


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The Aussie dollar rallied from a slight dip during earlier session and is now at 0.7617 against the US dollar. The improvement was due to the National Australia Bank’s solid business confidence report.

NAB revealed that the business confidence index grew to +6 in March from February's +3. According to survey results of more than 400 companies, business conditions increased to +12, the country’s best since 2008.

The services industry was the strongest, followed by manufacturing, construction, and transport. The mining sector was still the weakest.

Meanwhile, the USD still failed to recover after Fed’s decision to take a more cautious approach in tightening monetary policy.

AUD is now testing 0.77 levels. The upcoming release of Australia’s unemployment rate this week and China’s dataflow is expected to sway investor sentiment next.

The first support is at 0.7562 and 0.7524 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7666 and 0.7704 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position. The price is rising.


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The NZD/USD extended gains to an intraday high of 0.6885 assisted by a soft USD and a pickup in global commodity prices.

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) showed that the number of houses sold in March saw an 8.2 percent year-on-year increase, breaking the record set in March 2007. Property prices also grew by 4.2 percent year-on-year.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been keeping a watchful eye on the real estate market amidst worries that lenders will be in trouble once the gains subside.

Apart from this, the bird is on a quiet flight until the release of the Food Price Index later today which will give a hint on the inflation rate.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is increasing.


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The Westpac Consumer Sentiment slid in April for the second consecutive month to 95.1 percent from March’s 99.1 percent. A level below 100 shows that pessimists outnumber the optimists for the short-term and long-term outlooks.

The consumers’ bias toward economic conditions over the next 12 months and the next five years were reduced by 5.5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. Family finances compared to one year ago dropped by 3.8 percent, while family finances over the next 12 months waned by 6.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the unemployment expectations index softened by 1.8 percent, which means that consumer confidence on low unemployment rate is high.

The disappointing and a bit surprising figures squashed hopes that the public’s confidence will follow a considerably optimistic trend because of the previous four consecutive releases above 100.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said that consumers are probably seeing the strong Australian dollar as detrimental for future growth. The media and RBA officials have openly said that the AUD may be overvalued.

The low consumer sentiment is offset by China’s hefty trade data which sent the AUD to bullish territory. After a 25.4 percent fall in March 2015, Chinese exports grew by an immense 11.5 percent, surpassing the forecasted 2.5 percent by leaps and bounds. However, it is important to note that the measured period included the Lunar New Year, a considerably lavish celebration by the Chinese.

Chinese imports contracted by 7.6 percent, positively missing the projected 10.2 percent decrease. This leaves the country’s trade balance at $29.86 billion, slimmer than the estimated $34.95 billion.

Mixed statements from Fed officials on Tuesday injected volatility into the US currency as Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said that he is backing rate hikes this year due to inflation’s fast pace. Meanwhile, Fed Dallas President Robert Kaplan said that an interest rate in April does not bode well for the weak economic growth.

Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2016 economic growth forecast by 0.2 percent, the third consecutive cuts it made since July last year. IMF estimated the US economy to grow by only 2.4 percent this year, lower than January’s 2.6 percent projection.

The AUD has broken into 77 cents in earlier session, but is now back to 0.7670.


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The Euro was clipped during Wednesday’s session after the International Monetary Fund commented, for the first time, about the enormous damage of the United Kingdom’s possible exit from the European Union.

Trading at a narrow range of 1.1342 to 1.1393, the Euro continues to drop against a slightly stronger USD which was lifted by higher crude oil prices. The US will release its retail sales and crude oil data later today.

The first support is at 1.1306 and 1.1249 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1426 and 1.1483 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position and the price is decreasing.


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