Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The Kiwi had rallied during Tuesday’s trading session and broke on top of the 0.73 region. This indicates a bullish sentiment which requires a follow-through, however, the Fed Reserve might have other reaction about this matter.

The level below 0.72 is expected to offer a massive support and buyers will be involved eventually. Pullbacks may have appeared to be of value which could possibly the most suitable way to take part in a highly impulsive session. But it does not directly says that the market is going to be intense within 0.73 area and it only needs a lot of patience in order to obtain profit from this type of market. There is a tendency that market will grind higher sooner or later.
Furthermore, in the long-term uptrend show signs that it is best to buy dips for it will provide better entry plus enabling you to establish a larger position.

The market trailed through the region above 0.75 as this is significant on the longer-term charge. Ability to make a gap on top will make an ascending trend but we should reach the target first.

Volatility remains in the market but in case that the US central bank showed at least some concern in the economy will convince traders to bet that there will be a lesser possibility for an interest rate hike in the future.


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The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved unsteadily during Thursday session followed by a rally as the market sees a “risk on” environment. For now, it looks like the market will remain unpredictable and the market reaction in the overall risk appetite will be the main driver of the trend.

Traders should take into consideration the other Yen pairings which will most likely move in the similar direction. Currently. The market aims for 111 level which has been formerly resistive. It seems that the market broke the psychological level and their next target would be around 112 and 112.50 levels or higher.

Pullbacks may open opportunity for buyers as the 110 level is reached which has been a significant psychological level in the past. It seems that the pullbacks would be extended longer which gives more value for the pair. This is beneficial to gain momentum in the pair while everyone is waiting for a better value.

There has been a sell-off for the pair as the market reacted to the Federal Reserve’s decision. It came out different than expected as the Fed lean to the hawkish side which consequently strengthens the U.S. dollar which moves almost always contrary to the Japanese yen as one of the highly sensitive pairs in the market.


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The Kiwi dollar break up to the upside amid Thursday trading hours and cut through over the region 0.7250, touching higher up to 0.7270 area, however, retreated to 0.7250 mark by which buyers have seen to make its entry towards the marketplace.

As the 24-hour exponential moving average still offer support causing the New Zealand to attract the attention of the buyers but pull back is required in order to meet those buyers.
The target is the level above 0.73 and when the commodity sector could at least make some recovery, it could further support the NZD.

Having said that, a consolidation will form between the 0.72 and 0.73 levels. Basically, we are on top of the “fair value” which indicates that buyers are nearly able to direct the market.
Ability to break on top of 0.73 will enable the market to crept higher and it may take some time to do so.

Moreover, the national currency of New Zealand Dollar appeared to be the strongest among other commodity currencies which have the possibility to keep going.

As a buyer, we recognize the breakdown under 0.72 area which is negative and has the potential to revise the overall projections.

The 0.75 level remains to be the target In the longer-term, even though it may take quite some time, the longer-term traders still believe that it will happen soon. With this, the market persists in buying the dips.


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The USD/CAD pair remains confined within its previous trading range of 1.3200 and 1.3300 points as there were no major events yesterday that could have swayed the current stance of the loonie. As the US dollar has been gaining more and more momentum due to the release of a positive durable goods data, this has been subsequently countered by an oil price surge on the side of the Canadian dollar, and this is why the USD/CAD pair has been in a deadlock as these events have cancelled out the effects of one another.

Oil prices are still consolidating within its price lows but tension within oil-producing countries has lent some additional support for oil prices, enabling them to surge at over $43 per barrel. Since the loonie is highly dependent on oil prices, the USD/CAD pair is then expected to increase subsequently in line with the increase in oil prices. The Fed chose to brush off the weak data coming from the US economy and still went ahead with its planned rate hike, but the market is not yet sure of the timing of the next rate hike since the dollar strength has not yet established itself as far as traders are concerned. This is why the market is now closely monitoring the incoming readings from the US in the short term in order to determine if the Fed is correct with its assumption that the US will be set to release a slew of positive data. If indeed these data comes out as positive, then the dollar strength should further increase as well.

For today’s trading session, Janet Yellen is set to make a statement within the day but the USD/CAD pair is expected to remain consolidating within its previous trading range.


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The USD/CAD broke through the support level 1.32 amid trades in the past 24 hours following the strength from the Loonies and sluggish dollar witnessed by the entire market.
Making it possible for the pair to trail near the 1.31 area, en route to 1.30 in the near-term. The next bounce could probably be seen at 1.30 level.

The greenbacks lost steam due to delay from the healthcare reform bill with increasing concerns that the bill should be revised. Another thing to consider is the possibility that the reform will start hitting roadblocks that could make policy decisions a much tougher task. Apparently, this is negative for the American currency and the upcoming data from the US seems to be bad after several weeks. The USD suffers in spite of the efforts of the Fed for not paying attention to the negative data, as well as to bolster the greens.

Moreover, Canadian data indicated an uptrend in the economy of Canada which is reflected from the CAD’s value which is further recognized by the Bank of Canada. According to BOC, the time for rate reduction is over since it signaled a hawkish stance which shows that they remain on hold in the near-term and plans to employ rate hike during the medium and long-term. Having said that, the Loonies bolstered along with the steady increase in oil prices that started earlier this week. The Canadian dollar had progress with increasing success causing the USDCAD to move lower.

Ultimately, we expect no major news from US or Canada, however, the US inventory statistics for oil is anticipated that could affect oil cost and could further weigh on prices of the commodity-linked pair.

The British currency rallied amid Thursday trading session as it reached the 1.30 region. Upon breaking the mentioned area allows the market to lead over the top of 1.3450 in the longer-term.

In doing so, a series of pullback has to be done in the short-term and then, the market is expected to deal with a “buy on the dips” situation. It further requires a bit of cautiousness when purchasing with that high level, however, it does not necessary to sell but should imply more patience.

The Friday would likely to be a quiet session since the presence of volatility in the market is high in the past few trades. Currency markets should take a break at least once in awhile and we believe that this is the perfect timing to do so.

Furthermore, the Canadian and the US independence days are scheduled for the next days which is suspected of draining the liquidity on North America.

With this, there is a possibility that movements are very limited in the next 24 hours which could last until Wednesday next week. However, an upward bias is certainly expected since most market reflects this path.

The most suitable way to engage with this market is to search for the value from pullbacks or waiting for a breakout confirmation.

Headline risks are projected due to divorce proceedings which involve the countries, EU and U.S, nonetheless, the market seems favors the side of the sterling pound.


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The EUR/USD slowed down this morning which anticipates a renewed week this Monday morning. As the week started, it established lots of consolidation, in general, and moving over the pairs while traders will go back to work after the weekend, preparing themselves for a fresh start.

It is expected for an interesting week since this is the first week of July and another month usually contains plenty of data from different countries. During the second half of the week, it is scheduled of many upcoming reports including the NFP and FOMC.
Since the US market has the most number of data to be issued within this week, the dollar is currently in the center of attention. While the market expects to witness some development in data.

The US statistics in the past few months were actually weak as the market assumed that the Federal Reserve will not increase rates last month. However, the Fed choose to continue their plan and ignored the sluggish data. But this time, when the data remained weak, further rate hike might not be possible to implement. As the focus turned to the US dollar, the single European currency let the dollar to take the driver’s seat.

Apparently, the EUR is bullish followed by the increasing data within the euro region along with some strong implications regarding the QE tapering of the European Central Bank (ECB). Taking into account these data, the central bank might consider the tapering in a short while. This could also probably maintain a well bid position for the euro for this day and in the subsequent days.

The level around 1.0440 is possible to generate a strong resistance and was able to hold the price in the near-term. Ultimately, the ISM Manufacturing PMI data issued by the United States will set the week and consolidation should be expected, ranging from the pair on either side of the region 1.04 amid the day.

The sterling pound trade sideways during the course on Tuesday while the choppiness remained in the market shown with a slightly negative tone. The 1.29 region should gain enough support since the market is predicted to receive large trading volumes after the US Independence Day holiday.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes will come out amid the session which could likely put pressure towards the market, it will also gauge how hawkish is the Fed Reserve.

The market choppiness is expected to continue due to concerns regarding the United Kingdom and the European Union. The British currency is possible to move rapidly without hints as far as the news releases continue to be issued out.

When the bullish pressure was able to maintain its position, it could be a significant factor in the market. Aside from 1.29 mark, more support can be found in the 1.28 range below which provides massive support, the mentioned range could probably the “bottom” of the most current impulsive trend.

An ability to break down under that point will cancel all bets, however, staying on top of this level requires to look for impulsive moves or supportive candle to the upside in order to make money work.

A break over the level 1.3050 freezes this market to move towards the 1.3450 region eventually. Shorting seems unattractive till we reach down the 1.28 handle, however, when we get there the market could possibly decline through 1.26 region. This also influences the Federal Reserve about its hawkish stance which could affect everything that moves ahead to the currency markets.

The trend line close to the 1.3030 level was achieved overnight which is already expected. Currently, the resistance region is being tested by traders from below. The uptrend is anticipated to continue in the upper region. The 1.1829 level is the limit amid the impulsive trend that cannot be breached.

The WS1 was positioned at 1.2788 followed by WS2 at 1.2698 with the weekly pivot at 1.2952 and the intraday support at 1.3015. On the other hand, its WR1 is found at 1.3045 with the Top wave or the intraday resistance at 1.3118 level.

For today, it is conducive in trading to keep all the buy orders open and set the stop-loss (S/L) below the 1.2829 mark since the trend is anticipated to bounce and proceed to go further upward.


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The British currency went to a volatile session on Thursday and traded sideways, however, returned to the 1.2980 region and test the region 1.2930 another time.

The market also contained significant amount of support under the 1.29 mark and attempts to touch the 1.30 area eventually. This is an area that could offer massive resistance and extends towards 1.3050, but a cut through over that level enable the market to climb higher near the longer-term target at 1.3450

Remember that the Nonfarm Payroll is released every first friday of the month which is today, therefore, the US dollar is expected to have plenty movement in general. An ability to break down from this point, we shall see the 1.28 region to provide support. The area below there will affect the sterling pound.

The pullbacks could possibly have some value opportunities showing a strong uptrend. A break down beneath the 1.28 range will initiate buying the dips on the candles that looks supportive. This could be difficult enough to stay in a trend for a relative amount of time not until a cut over the massive resistance found at the 1.3050 region.

When this happens, winning positions could be improved to the upside. Otherwise, a breakdown under the 1.28 will urge to the market to look for 1.26.


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