Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The manufacturing data has exceeded predictions which countered the weak U.S. jobs data sustaining the range of the dollar on Friday prior to the long weekend holiday in the United States. The seasonally adjusted jobs data that propelled much lower expectations yet an increase of 156,000 was much more serious than anticipated. The European Central Bank speech implies that inflationary targets have not been attained that impedes the movement of the currency pair.

The euro against the U.S. dollar rose after the weakened U.S. jobs data but declined soon-after. It maintained an uptrend ahead of the support region close to the 10-day moving average at 1.1860. The resistance of the currency pair was set as the weekly highs at 1.2070 region. There is no momentum while the price rate is moving higher at a slower pace. Thus, the MACD histogram was almost zero-index level with a flat course that results to a consolidation.

Primarily, the sterling moved sideways on Monday, however, drove downwards to find some support and in order to make a rebound. The United States is currently in a holiday to celebrate the Labor Day, hence, the trading volume will be heightened during the European session.

Moreover, the market is having some conflicting pressure while players lack confidence about the possible increase of the Fed interest rates for this year. However, there are various concerns regarding the British exit from the European Union.

It is possible that the market will continue its choppiness which suggests to better trade in small positions. We should search for some pullback while the market should push lower touching the 1.2850 in the longer term. The 1.30 region appeared to be really resistive but when the 1.3050 area will be broken, buyers would likely take the driver’s seat once again.

It is expected that the market will keep on having some noise, but there is also a possibility that the market is seeking for clarity which is hard to look for because of the increasing noise in the markets.

It should be noted that the liquidity will not raise until the following week, considering that majority of the traders are not present due to the holiday.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 6, 2017

The British pound soared to 1.30 and labeled as the strongest currency for the day during Tuesday session. Currently, it moves to the highs of the range in the 1.3030 region and put a risk for a breakout. It seems to be not performing well in the past whole week but this was supported by the expected data from the U.K. and the weakened dollar which has assisted the recovery of the GBP/USD pair.

The center of attention has been the U.S. dollar majority of the day since the U.S. market opened after the long weekend as well as rhetorics from various speakers of the Federal Reserve. The market anticipates what will happen to the U.S. economy and when will be the next rate hike. It seems that they do not really think about it. It is mainly dovish on both issues but this did not appeal to investors which resulted in another round of selling the greenback.

In turn, this has supported the GBP/USD pair to ascend towards 1.3000 level and the 1.3030 is now an important resistance region. If it successfully breaks through the said region in a clean manner, the pair is anticipated to move towards 1.3250 region for short term. Yet, there is a possibility for this to happen when the dollar further weakened.

There is no major economic news from the U.K. for this day. The dollar will once again be the center of attention and if the market can recover for short-term. It seems that the dollar index is at a crucial stage where it could decline or bounce up from this point. It is ideal for traders to be careful and determine its next move whether it will go down or up prior to placing orders.


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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 8, 2017

The US dollar weakened versus the safe-haven Japanese Yen amid Thursday’s session and tested the 108.50 handle. This level appeared to be an interesting area because it is the bottom of the longer-term consolidation. A close under this region of the daily candle will push the market downwards through the next major support hurdle, which is the level of 105 below.

Otherwise, when the market rebounded from that point, then it is possible to return to the 109.50 mark. It will take some time for the market to declare their targets and we are currently at a very significant region on the longer-term charts.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 11, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a significant breakdown during the Friday session. Nevertheless, the market proceeds to move downward and a breakdown lower than 108.0 level gives a negative outlook. Hence, this could lead to a further decline and even lower than the 105 level. This gives a very pessimistic outlook and the concept of the Federal Reserve in not raising its interest rates for short-term would persist to have an effect on the market. It is next to monitor the equities which would also influence the next movement of the pair.


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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 13, 2017

European yields increased again together with the stabilization of risk appetite and revival of the global stock market that keeps buoying the EURUSD pair.

Eurozone peripherals had performed better while the European Central Bank assures for a cautious move as it prepares to ease off the stimulator. Meanwhile, the chain store sales of the United States declined after the destructive hurricanes Harvey and Irma that are predicted to put pressure on the national figures for this week.

The German economic ministry anticipates slow growth in the H2, which implies that employment growth might curb sentiment.

The euro-dollar pair formed another Doji day showing the opening and closing level were at the same point reflecting an indecision. The support highlighted the 1.1937 level close to the 10-day moving average. While the resistance came in at 1.2092 near the September peaks.

The momentum is in the neutral position and the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints around the zero index level linked with a flat trajectory that shows some consolidation. Moreover, the RSI (relative strength index) known to be a momentum oscillator that assesses the increasing or decreasing momentum. The index prints a reading of 59 in the middle of the neutral range, which also indicates further consolidation.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 14, 2017

The U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen rallied to the upper channel during the Wednesday session and there is an unabating buying pressure. The discussion on tax reform from the United States further worsens the situation since it came out earlier than expected. On the other hand, this is favorable for the greenback. This makes more U.S. companies more aggressive and in all likelihood boost the U.S. economy. On this condition, it is presumed that buyers will enter the market and attain the level of 111. If the market successfully breaks out, there is a potential for the price to move much higher.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: September 15, 2017

The British pound moves sideways during the beginning of the Thursday session. This surged to the upper channel after the Bank of England hinted that there will be interest rate hikes soon.

Hence, the market will most likely proceed with buying on the lows and it may not be wise to short this pair for now. For long-term, the pair will try to reach the 150 handle and above. Selling will be difficult for this pair and the 145-level or lower will continue to support the market which gives a bit of a bullish pressure.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 19, 2017

The euro-dollar pair remained almost unchanged as it stayed in the level 1.1953 under the 10-day moving average. On the other hand, the inflation came in at 1.5% which is lower the 2% target of the European Central Bank. Now, traders’ attention was turned to the Fed Reserve meeting on September 19 and 20, but there is no any expectations for the meeting. Moreover, the Fed had mentioned some ways in managing the bond purchase program. Contrarily, the Bundesbank assumes that growth will slow down in the second half of the fiscal year.

The EURUSD consolidated prior the meeting of the Federal Reserve which is scheduled tomorrow. The pair’s support hit the 1.1834 mark which is seen around the lows of the previous week. The resistance highlighted the region 1.2092 around the highs last week.

The momentum maintained a negative stance while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints in the red with a descending trajectory, pointing to lower exchange rate.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 20, 2017

The currency pair EUR/USD was able to make some slight improvement during the trading session yesterday, however, the pair resumed the consolidation prior the meeting of the Fed Reserve scheduled on Thursday.

The German Zew Investor confidence had increased which buoyed the euro-dollar pair, but the attention of the traders are centered towards the Federal Reserve. When they mentioned about quantitative tightening during the meeting, it would likely that the U.S. import prices will rise more than 2% year over year.

The EURUSD remained to sit on the 10-day moving average, and continued consolidating before the Fed meeting tomorrow. The pair’s support touched the 1.1834 level around the lows last week. On one side, the resistance entered the 1.2092 region near the highs of the previous week.

Moreover, prices seem to generate a bull flag formation serves a pause that refreshes upwards. The negative momentum is moving downwards while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is printing in the red showing an ascending trajectory that reflects for further consolidation.