Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 21, 2017

The EURUSD trailed downwards during Wednesday's trading session after the release of Federal Research report as the central bank maintained interest rates. Moreover, the Fed Reserve announced that they progress with the quantitative tightening with an amount of 600 billion approximately, which is related to balance sheet reduction every year.

The FOMC also mentioned another rate increase scheduled presumably in December. Among 16 Fed members, there are 11 who voted for a hike this year. According to forecasts made by the officials, it might extend until next year to attain the neutral rate level of Fed funds. The Federal Reserve System gradually approach the issue about the three-time hike in 2019 and 2020 and the long-term rate was lowered down to 2.75%, with the previously 3.0%.

The euro-dollar pair weakened after the dollar made some progress along with the increase of yields. The support lies at 1.1834 region around the lows last week while resistance can be found at 1.2092 level near the previous highs.

The RSI (relative strength index) which functions as a momentum oscillator measuring the performance of the momentum, whether it will accelerate or decelerate. The indicator broke the support which shows an ascending negative momentum. On the other hand, the MACD histogram prints in the red, reflecting a downward trajectory that leads to a lower exchange rate.


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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 22, 2017

The EUR/USD had a mixed performance during the daytime trading on Thursday, showing some choppiness without any hints on how to handle the dollar recovery. It happened after the FOMC meeting in which the Federal Reserve did not exclude chances for a rate increase in December and decided to begin the program to cut balance sheets. These combined announcements enabled to maintain the bid under the greenbacks, however, the trend of the EURUSD pair remained choppy to a certain extent.

Moreover, the single European currency weakened and moved below the 1.19 mark during the morning session, afterward, it started to recover and moved upwards since the US dollar weakened again over other selected currencies. With this, the euro was able to drive higher than the 1.19 level and currently trading in the 1.2950 area which continues to gain strength. It appeared that the pair would retrace its losses in the near term while the dollar bulls still having a tough time to generate strength recovery.

The USD failed to become well-composed in the past couple of days, as it loses its bullish gains. While the EUR successfully recovered due to the discussion about the continuous QE tapering in the market which is very visible to everyone.

In the near term, the euro is expected to remain in the bid as the pair test the range highs at 1.2070. The time for the dollar has not happened yet, therefore, bulls should be willing to wait for strong signals sent by the Fed regarding the rate hike, together with the ECB’s tapering talk and from that, we could expect for a reversal of fortune.

Ultimately, there are no major economic releases for today except the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi which is anticipated during London hours. According to forecasts, Draghi will tackle about the monetary policy while the market is still searching for some insights about tapering, however, the ECB president is known for his inclination not to touch the monetary policy during this kind of meetings. Furthermore, it remains unclear if this will brought an impact towards the euro-dollar pair.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 25, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen declined during the Friday session as the market looks for support close to the 112 level. Hence, the market will be more appealing to buyers because of the Federal Reserve plans to reduce their balance sheet. This market is sensitive to the “risk on” factor added to the overall interest rate outlook for both central banks.

The Federal is way earlier than the Bank of Japan regarding the rise in interest rates that makes it highly probable to move to the upper channel. It may be not wise to short this pair for now. However, there are buying opportunities in pullbacks. On the weekly chart, there is a consolidation seen in the 108 level below and 114.50 level above for long term. The next target level will be 114.50 while a decline would offer value to the market. There might be some noise every now and then because of “risks off” incidents worldwide in consideration of the upsurge in the stock market.

Incremental increase and opening bigger positions are the best means of trading this pair in the background of an upward rally. If the market breaks over the 115 handle, it will lead to a “buy-and-hold” situation although this may take some time to happen. For now, buyers will predominate this pair for short-term to take advantage of the current situation.


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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 27, 2017

The British pound has been competing with the surge of the dollar and a basket of currencies is already behind of the currency. The performance of the British currency has been better than other currencies as reflected in the past few weeks as it was supported by the Bank of England and the U.K. government which keeps it from collapsing.

The central bank supports the currency which allows the probability of a rate hike for the year. It seems that the bank would not disturb the economy with the ongoing process of Brexit that flows at a faster pace than in their last meeting. Although, they noted that they would interfere when necessary. It has improved the confidence of the U.K. economy which also pushes the currency at a slower but steady in the past few weeks.

The U.K. government aptly proceeds with the Brexit process through their parliament which helped the situation and supported the pound to rise stronger over time. Although the U.K. Prime Minister May lengthened the timeline for Brexit in the new few years. In the meantime, her approach implies that the both the nation and the investors trust the economy.

Today, there is no major economic news from the U.K. anticipated but the durable goods data will be released from the U.S. The greenback is presumed to hold the current rates because of the expected announcement in the afternoon from Trump to implement a new tax system. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair will be put under pressure.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 2, 2017

The GBP/USD pair showed some choppiness in the past couple of days without any definite direction. The British pound was able to recover in the previous weeks, considering the fact that it is one of the strongest currency in the market. However, the Sterling was also affected by the dollar buying, forcing the Cable pair for a correction over the 1.35 level to trade beneath the 1.34 region in the past few days. Previously, the pound-dollar pair failed to broke the 1.3420 area after certain attempts which the pair did during the USD weakening.

In case that this pattern keep on going, it would likely cause further weakness in the GBP and could push the pair downwards. Moreover, we are waiting for a bundle of data from the United States later this week, which could possibly manage the greenback well bid in the near-term. These events when combined would likely place the sterling in the pressured area in the short-term.

On one side, the sterling pound was supported by the Bank of England (BOE), as the bank did not lose the possibility for a rate hike despite the ongoing Brexit process. Primarily, the market expected that the BoE will remain quiet during this kind of precarious scenario but the most recent meeting of the UK central bank clearly announced that they will only take action if necessary. This has provided support to the GBP, considering that British government showed optimistic views regarding the retention of the free market access to the European Union.

Ultimately, the manufacturing PMI data from the United Kingdom and the United States which could probably enough volatility. While it is essential for the bulls to break 1.3420 mark in the near-term for the completion of an upward trend.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 4, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen surged but then it declined towards the level of 113.25. It declined to the area of 112.75 with a bit of support. Hence, the market will attempt to rally from this level and resume the general uptrend recently. After some time, the price will further move up due to the risk of appetite from traders. Moreover, there is a possibility for the Federal Reserve to increase its rates or at least the be stricter with the monetary policy. Therefore, the market will move towards the 113.25 level then towards 114.50 and higher. The market will test the peak of the whole consolidation which sways to and fro. If the market successfully breaks higher than the 115 handle, the market would move much higher which is presumably towards 118 level.

If the price pullbacks from the said level, there would be more opportunities present to resume the value. It seems that the 112 will be largely supportive and the floor of consolidation will be seen at the level of 108. A pullback would open buying opportunities considering the support below. Eventually, both sellers and buyers will gain profits with the presence of volatility in the market if given sufficient time.

Notably, the market is influenced by the general stock market which is another indicator that must be monitored besides the S&P 500 and the DAX etc. Nevertheless, the stock market will climb higher as it is in a good condition.


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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 6, 2017

The American currency weakened versus its Japanese counterpart during the trading session yesterday, however, the dollar found adequate support around the 112.50 region to manage a reversal and bounce. It is possible that the market will keep on searching for buyers below, and buying the dips appeared to be attractive. Moreover, the interest rate differential would likely take the side of the USD, since the Bank of Japan is far from any interest rate hike decisions.

On one side, the Fed Reserve is expected to tighten its monetary policy which has the tendency for the pair to drive higher. Take note that the USD/JPY has high sensitivity on risk and the stock market should focus on it when they tend to move upwards, for this could place bullish pressure within the trading area.

Buying the dips is preferred for it could provide buying opportunities linked with significant values. The 114.50 mark offers massive resistance hurdle which is extended through 115 handle. Breaking over the 115 handle would imply a “buy-and-hold” in the market. Therefore, it will send the market near the 120 region, but it requires a lot of time to get into it.

Ability to break down under the 112 area, the 111 level below would be the next target. Shorting is ruled out due to the resumption of buying pressure. Eventually, buyers will dominate the market, nevertheless, the dollar-yen pair seems volatile which could trigger varying issues. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious.


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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 9, 2017

The U.S. dollar rallied to the upside in the course of the Friday session which came out following the mixed report of the jobs data. Although most traders will pay no attention to the jobs data in the aftermath of the two hurricanes. The 10-year interest rates in the U.S. also surged which further drove the market higher. There is a possibility got the USD/JPY major pair follow suit as there are no returns committed in the 10-year notes. Consequently, it seems that the market proceeds directed upward reaching the peak of the consolidation which is at the level of 114.50 up to the 115 handle. Overall, there will most likely be a breakout lower than 115 handle and the market should carry on with its uptrend at higher levels and result in a “buy-and-hold” trend.

There will be more buying positions when the trades decline and there is a chance for a pullback to occur and take profit of the outburst during the Friday session. The trend could possibly break to the upper channel and attain the level towards 120 handle which is a relevant target being a big round number. Volatility will still persist in the market yet there is a high chance for buyers to dominate since the comeback of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen. There will be less worry regarding the uptrend unless it breaks below 112.00 level. Nevertheless, there will be plenty of support found below. For the long term, buyers will have a trend in the market as the interest rates for 10-year notes from the U.S. will ascend in value which would remain to put pressure to progress upward in the market. At the same time, the stock market will advance which will also associate the pair.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2017

There is volatility present in trading the NZD/USD pair as it reached a lower limit in the opening on Monday where this will be reversed and fill the gap and proceed with a decline again. There is a possibility for this to reach the level of 0.70 where there will most likely be a support level. This area has been supportive in the past which was also resistive and anticipates volatility around that number. Take into consideration that the New Zealand is highly sensitive to commodities as well as the global risk appetite. It can be noted that the stock market is performing well although, there is less liquidity in the New Zealand dollar compared to other currencies. Hence, there will most likely be more volatility than other markets.

It underwent a downtrend in the past few days which signifies the continuation of a bearish pressure. It’s too early to say if the market will break lower than 0.70 region and if it does, this would not be a good sign. Hereinafter, the market will look for the 0.68 level below as the next target support level based on the long-term charts. Moreover, the Australian dollar is dropping which usually moves in the similar direction as the New Zealand dollar. It will either move up or be sold unless a breakout happens higher than the 0.7125 region and look at higher levels which is most likely above the 0.72 level. Volatility will not be surprising in this pair and seller will consider the riskier currencies in the present.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: October 11, 2017

The British currency traded sideways versus the Japanese yen and continue to hold the 148 handle. This level has gained lots of attention lately and it seems ready to move from side to side, as of this writing. However, a break on top of the 140.50 region will push the markets to go above the 150 handle. This region acquired attention with longer-term considering it’s a large, round, psychologically significant number. A cut through over that area would enable the market to continue moving upwards in the longer-term and the target to reach the 155 mark eventually.

A pull back from that region could possibly drive the market near the 147 level below, which appears to be very supportive. With the given scenario, the market is required to search for buyers around that range. But a breakdown beneath that would likely descend to 145 handle which is a round number where traders are continuously involved in such target regions.

There is a tendency that the market would be highly sensitive to risk appetite and participants should be paying attention to stock markets because the pound-yen pair might ascend in case a rally occurs or decline upon the roll over. Moreover, volatility is projected to enter the market and the reason for the sideways trading and the short term is the expectations for further actions by the Fed Reserve. Generally, world markets are slightly overbought and it is helpful if the bullish pressure will keep on going. In the meantime, traders should wait for signals.