Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: June 27, 2018

The Australian currency had slightly decline amid trading course on Tuesday and was able to touch the 0.74 level below. According to the chart, the light blue circle that formed a “W pattern” at 0.7350 zone indicates some bullish reversal signal, the said level is considered significant in the longer-term chart. With this, it seems that we are in a neutral position attempting to reverse the overall market sentiment which would cause a lot of noise.

In case that market will break on top of the 0.75 handle, this shows a bullish sign which appears to hang in the trade of a significant trend in the longer-term. Below this zone seems to offer enough support to help the market buoyed. In general, the market may continue to be noisy but holding a position above the significant area of 0.7350 would likely attract more buyers.

Aside from that, the weekly charts generated a massive hammer formation last week which showed a bullish sign, as expected. Hence, there is low chance to have a good rebound which is in favor of the short-term charts. Otherwise, a break under the 0.7350 mark would pull down the market toward 0.70 zone.


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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: June 28, 2018

The British currency had seesawed during Wednesday trading session and rebounded from the ascending trend line below to turn around and touches the ¥145.33 level. Apparently, the market will continue to have a lot of noise in general due to fears about trade wars. However, there are certain attempts to seriously break down through the upward trendline that can be seen on the hourly. An ability to move under that level would allow the market to reach the ¥144.50 level or lower.

Otherwise, the market might bounce from that point when some good news was released. From there, the market is expected to go near the ¥146 level, which is an area of resistance barrier of various minor in between that requires a significant amount of momentum to gain a position above.

Remember that the GBP/JPY pair is predicted to be extremely volatile and highly sensitive with regards the news and current issue between China and the United States. It is believed that this market is going to receive a lot of bad news despite the significant bounce from the remarks of Donald Trump that he is not interested to further heighten the trade war to hold China from investing in the US technological firms.


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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 3, 2018

The Aussie dollar had a significant break down during the trading course yesterday and further cut through the 0.7350 zone. There is a lot of support underneath that level and it appears that players attempt to slice through it. If this happens, the market would likely move to the 0.73 handle or even to the 0.72 mark eventually. At present, rallies may be sold-off since Sino-American affiliation continue to fall apart. The nearing deadline for the trade tariff on Friday appears to be true but traders are also concerned about China’s retaliation plans.

Market players will be confident to buy the Australian dollar again until the trade pressures eased down due to bid for safety. As of this writing, the market may drive lower but traders might experience an occasional bounce. Also, the markets may resume moving based on the headlines while the downside may be the most convenient way to trade, considering that the markets avoid risks.

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 3, 2018

The Aussie dollar had a significant break down during the trading course yesterday and further cut through the 0.7350 zone. There is a lot of support underneath that level and it appears that players attempt to slice through it. If this happens, the market would likely move to the 0.73 handle or even to the 0.72 mark eventually. At present, rallies may be sold-off since Sino-American affiliation continue to fall apart. The nearing deadline for the trade tariff on Friday appears to be true but traders are also concerned about China’s retaliation plans.

Market players will be confident to buy the Australian dollar again until the trade pressures eased down due to bid for safety. As of this writing, the market may drive lower but traders might experience an occasional bounce. Also, the markets may resume moving based on the headlines while the downside may be the most convenient way to trade, considering that the markets avoid risks.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 4, 2018

The British currency had a significant rally during trading course yesterday and further reach the important region of 1.32. It seems that the market will continue to search for sellers around that level, while a break on top of that area will show the next target above the 1.33 mark. This market remains to be very noisy, however, the market is predicted to move according to headlines and uncertainties at the end of the day.

The hourly chart formed a “higher low” but it is too soon to consider the market reversal in the longer-term. Forecasts show that the greenbacks would likely continue to gain strength in general while traders buy additional treasuries. Aside from that, there is some unknown factor relative to the United Kingdom and participants should take extra care.

Since today is the Independence Day holiday in the United States, we should anticipate a very noisy market unless liquidity will flow intensely that could prompt further shocking news. Generally, we can expect for some quiet fluctuation in the trading area.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 5, 2018





The euro major pair was strongly bid on Friday, taking advantage of the rising momentum because of the broad weakening of the US dollar amid lack of fundamental support but positive non-farm payrolls data. With the uncertainty caused by the US-China trade deal, the greenback was on the lead upon the opening of the trading session for the week. Most of the answers in the survey say that the Democrats will probably win back the house while the Republicans is highly likely to keep the Senate. Thus, Congress is still divided which is what the market anticipates.


The previous week ended in a downward trend following good two-way moves on Friday. It looks the price is set within the falling wedge pattern. In case of a Republican victory in both houses but it may require a fiscal stimulus while a breakout on falling wedge is still far from happening. However, a Democrat victory in both chambers may have an impact to the greenback and result to a falling wedge breakout and a change from bearish to bullish sentiment. As for today, the risk ahead by the midterm elections will probably keep the euro major pair in a flat line.


Furthermore, the reports from ECB add more pressure after another round of a long-term refinancing operation at LTRO, which in turn will support the European banks in the December meeting. Meanwhile, the problem on Italy’s budget hasn’t yet been resolved, as wells as, concerns on big sovereign debt holdings. There is no expected major economic report, therefore, the dollar will highly depend on the technical aspect prior to the release of the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI during the US trading session.

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 6, 2018





Unless an unexpected statement comes out, not much reaction is expected to the RBA statement. The focus will be centered on the inflation of RBA and growth forecast. We can also expect on chances for tightening of lending requirement which may raise concern for some policymakers.


The Australian currency looks to be trading flat shortly prior to the release of the central bank of Australia decision and once again, it is anticipated to keep the cash rate at 1.5 percent. At the same time, traders are hoping for the central bank to stay positive but still gives a neutral policy outlook.


Forecast of the RBA on the employment forecast is being sought after because of the recent decline to 5%, as mentioned by NAB. Meanwhile, only minor short-term changes to GDP forecasts are anticipated and keep the inflation rate of the RBA forecast to be the same.


Today’s report is significant but most of the investors will probably focus on the US midterm election this Tuesday.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2018





The euro major pair is a continuous changing across the Asian market session as US midterm elections would be on headlines. A steady support was found at the level of 1.14 but continues to move up and down with elections being the US headlines. A sudden decline occurred by 70 pips in early Asian market from highs of 1.1473 to 1.1398 with the probability of Democrats taking the lead and if Democrats win, the dollar will likely bounce off from a sudden decline. As of now, the Euro major pair is trading at 1.1463, gaining 0.33% on the day.


Most of the analysts, as well as investors, expect for a split result on the election, which resulted in the probability of the house majority to push through investigations of Trump’s administration ties with Russia and financial affair while the Republican Senate is struggling to pass any new major legislation Consequently, the pair turned within the range at 1.145 and anticipated to continue trading in a slow range price action until final results are announced. On the technical analysis, it seems that the euro major pair breaks through to exit a falling wedge, changing from a bearish to a bullish trend on the daily chart. Bullish patterns are executed between the 5-day and 10-day SMA, ascending 50-, 100-, and 200-hour SMAs. Higher lows are also achieved on the hourly and 4-hour chart and indicators are leaning on a bullish sentiment.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2018





The euro major pair faced a bearish drop after the result of split congress which is already anticipated by the market and momentum of the pair starting to become insufficient after the final outcome was announced. The Republicans kept the Senate and Democrats took the House. Although, House will probably pressure Trump concerning taxes whom he pledged to fight back with investigations being out. Meanwhile, the eurozone resulted in a positive macro data which had no impact on price action as momentum yesterday were dominated by the US elections results and the pair has had important gains. Yet, the US dollars recovered in the broad market during the Asian session, as well as late American hours following a major loss against euro yesterday.


There is a probability for the dollar to become dovish if the policy statement shows a sensitive reaction to the recent declines in the stock market. Looking at the technical perspective, the euro against the US dollar 25 delta risk reversals grew to -0.575, which was the peak since August 1. The means that the demand or the implied volatility premium for the cheaper money of euro is presently at the lowest in more than three months. The falling demand for the bearish bets of the euro would mean that investors are anticipating for a stronger recovery rally for the euro major pair. Meanwhile, the greenback starts to kick-off on the 4-hour and daily chart implying the bullish momentum to remain intact, demonstrated that price continues to move higher than the level of 1.14.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 9, 2018





The euro major pair has been moving steadily after the release of the FOMC report since there is a bearish pressure on both currencies. Aside from rising tensions in Europe, the hawkish sentiment remains with market expectations that adds pressure on the common currency. Various political tensions such as Brexit, tensions between Brussels and Rome are anticipated to heighten tension in the next few weeks, yet Brexit is likely to move in a sluggish pace. The issue between EU and Italy influence the spread between Italy and Germany to 300 bps. Other than that, the two major coalition partners in Italy proceeds to take action in limiting immigration that also affects the euro across markets.


These economic events limit the progress of the euro while in the US, uncertainty has pushed investors to side on the US-dominated assents and the greenback. The EUR/USD pair grew modestly after the release of the FOMC statement and rise to 1.1409. It declines immediately and broke the previous slows. The price declined below 1.1350 during the Asian trading session as the US central bank kept the funds' rate at 2.25% to 2.00. At the same time, the recent statement remained the same from the September meeting, providing a solid bullish support. Meanwhile, the Italian bond yields yesterday night after the EU commission’s forecast saying that Italy has undergone inadequate and partial analysis.