Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 16, 2019





Previously, the German spread slid by 232 bp and gave a strong momentum to the euro major pair. After it grew from its lowest point at 1.1294, the pair was trading close to 1.1307 during the Asian hours. The pair stayed close to the secured level ranging at 1.1302/12.


In the international news, there is optimism regarding the US-China trade agreement with expectations that the pair will end prior to the last week of April.


The US Industrial scores (MoM) will be released, which is anticipated to cause some volatility. The forecast is presumed to increase by 0.2 percent compared to the previous one.


In the EU, they will publish the economic sentiment for Germany which will likely have a big impact with the forecast of 0.8 points increase. There will also be the index for the EMU but will have a lesser effect.


On the 4-hour chart, the price trades higher than SMA, indicating bullish sentiment. The price level of 1.1288 on 200-SMA is higher than 100-SMA, which is how the price looks in general. It seems that the price will be in a neutral stance for short-term


When looked into the 30-min chart, things urge more towards the neutral side in the near term. However, the euro pair had already breached the 21-day SMA and was afterward trading below the 55-day SMA.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 22, 2019


The euro major pair is moving sideways in a narrow trading range of 1.1237/52. There is some apparent movements on the Thursday session as it dropped to a two-week low amid the increasing greenback. The decline dropped after the release of the US retail sales data which induced the US dollar index to increase.


As for the pair, it’s decline has further intensified in the background of the weakened data in the German and Eurozone PMI reports. It looks like that after effects of the Thursday session has remained.


The US dollar reached the level of 97.50 as the monthly high against a basket of currency pair. Also, the crude oil was peaking in high levels during the morning session, which further complicated the condition.


On the other side, the progress remains risk-averse despite some pessimistic news on Brexit over the weekends. Speculation continues in regards to the resignation UK PM Theresa May while everybody waits for the advancement of the UK parliament officially on April 23rd.


For the day, data on economic activity index from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for the month of March and estimate of the March MoM existing Home Sales from National Association of Realtors are scheduled to be released. If the home sales came out with a drop more than 210K, it will likely result in an increase of the euro major pair.


In trading, the upper hand seems to be on the bears as the 21-SMA moves along the pair and moves strongly in long-term that could mean a bearish tone for long-term. This is further supported by the 100- and 200-SMA marking higher than the euro major pair. The resistance line around 1.1324 stands strong while the support will probably remain at 1.1212.

GBP/USD Daily Analysis: April 25, 2019


The British major pair continued its decline which began since the middle of April. Prior to this, the pair consolidated at the beginning of the trading session. It reached as low as 1.2917, close to 1.2884. So far, it positions at the lowest level this month.


The negotiations between the Prime Minister continued and the Labour party over Brexit. The Labour party requested for modifications in the Agriculture bill while most expected a compromise over Brexit.


Overall, it seems that things are in favor of the prime minister as May was successful in gaining an early no-confidence vote in the UK parliament.


For today, data on Distributive Trades Survey in April (MoM) will be released by the Confederation of British Industry with anticipation for a bullish sentiment from analysts. Various March indices will be published as well, namely, US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders (excluding the Aircrafts), Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders (excluding Defence and excluding Transportation on the other). April reports are also scheduled including Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless Claims.


In the technical aspect, the cable pair is trading to its lowest level at 1.2882 for the month. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands remains low amid expected low volatility and lost its stance on the strong level of 1.300. The price crossed the EMA, showing an upward sign in the short-term. Yet, investors continue to unaffected by the RSI close to 30th figure. The 200-SMA is higher than 100-SMA by 30 pips and majority shows bearish legs for the pair.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: April 26, 2019


The price of the euro major pair rose slightly yesterday after reaching the lowest level on the chart. Yet, trading has remained subdued today as it consolidates close to 1.1136.


Since the start of the week, it lost around 117 pips for a given period of time. Surprisingly, the euro major pair broke the level of 1.1185 but it didn’t really have an impact on the traders.


The market worsened with the ongoing EU-US trade conflict and the ECB remained neutral or bearish with the EMU economic growth. Meanwhile, the USD index is also one of the concerns for the pair.


There are some significant events from the euro which will likely influence the pair for the day yet the steady US data wait for the pair. Nevertheless, the events from the US may support the pair higher.


Today, the SNB head, Thomas Jordan will have a conference which may affect the Swiss Franc in particular. From the US, report on the Annualized GDP growth for the first quarter will be released of which the experts forecast a bearish outcome with high volatility. At the same time, various data including GDP Price Index, Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices (QoQ), Core Personal Consumption (QoQ) and Consumer Sentiments from Michigan for the first quarter are scheduled today.


The pair was seen trading close to the 18-month low during the Asian session. The bearish sentiment remains as it moves close to 1.1139. It attempts to rise higher to the upper region of the Bollinger bands, yet, there is a reduction in the background of low volatility. The significant SMA stands strong, suggesting for a bearish movement in the future.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: April 30, 2019


Trading of the euro major pair began close to 0.1184 and find it quite difficult to rise higher. During the Asian session, the pair crossed by more than 90 pips, which looks good for the traders.


However, the fundamental data was not enough to support the pair which then weakened the dollar. Meanwhile, the US GDP and Durable Goods Orders supported the increase of the greenback. The upcoming interest decision of the Fed is important to be monitored.


The week ended with the euro major pair being the top concern after the improved European government bond yields. Meanwhile, the topic on UK’s Brexit remains uncertain along with the Sino-US trade deal, which is not surprising for the market at the present condition.


For today, various data from eurozone including German March Consumer Confidence Survey Index, the KOF Swiss April Leading Indicator, German March Consumer Confidence Survey Index, updated German April Unemployment Change, GDP numbers from EMU (QoQ), German April HICP (YoY) are expected. On the other hand, February S&P/ Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY), Chicago April PMI and US March (both MoM & YoY) Pending Home Sales are scheduled to be released as well.


On the technical outlook, the euro major pair is on its way to recovery. The pair moves close to the upper area of the Bollinger Bands, indicating upward signals. The important 200-days SMA recently crossed the 50-days SMA and moved below it. Yet, all the major SMA have bullish legs. As for the RSI, it stayed around the overbought area.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 16, 2019


The euro major pair continues to be subdued during the Thursday session as it stays close to 1.1210 despite the Eurogroup meeting on the eve. It shows that the pair seems to have no direction prior to the ECB official speech.


The pair shows a good rally from 1.1183 to 1.1225 previously. The uptrend occurred when Trump announced the possibility of a delay the import tariffs on autos for six months. This supports the European automobile industry and raises the pair.


The reports imply that the US president is hesitant to further move on trade disputes. Trump already had a hard time with the US-China trade war and prefers to avoid any simultaneous trade obstacles with other partners. Hence, a strong trade dispute between the EU and the US seems to cool off at least on the short-term.


Although, the EUR/USD pair cannot have large movement despite increasing Italy-German bond yields. Yesterday, yields rose by 140 bp, which was the highest figure since December. The rise in bond yields happened in the background of Italian Deputy PM rhetorics, saying that the peak should be adjusted to 140% of GDP.


Meanwhile, the retail sales figures cause the dropped of the dollar gains yesterday and the US dollar index trades close to 97.5.


Following data are to be released today in the US: Housing in April (MoM), Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims from period May 10 and Continuing Jobless Claims from May 3.


In the technical perspective, the price shows to be trading below the 50- and 100-SMA, indicating a bearish trend for the day. The top resistance remains at 1.1263 and the support close to 1.1178. Of the pair rises in the future, the next target resistance will likely be around 1.1323. The pair being above the Bollinger band may mean an increase and could develop into a bullish trend from the traders. The RSI was found close to the 55th figure, which confirms active purchases of the pair.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 17, 2019


In the beginning of today’s trading session, the euro major pair has shown less or no volatility. The euro major pair moves close to 1.1170/80 levels but there is no certain direction and moves around the weekly low levels.


The positive associated with the delay in US car import tariffs had a transient effect on the pair. Meanwhile, the weak fundamental report pushed the pair to low levels.


The future for the greenback looks optimistic while the index was able to recover the losses during the week. Various data on US Housing data, Unemployment figures, and Manufacturing Survey reports pushed the pair to reach high levels of 97.88. On the other hand, the Eurozone April CPI figures and US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index line may affect the future movements of the pair.


The CPI data from the eurozone is anticipated to be released with a forecast of a decrease by 0.3% on MoM. On the other hand, the data on Consumer Sentiments Index in May, which is presumed to rise close to 97.5%. There will also be speeches from Fed officials today.


On the 4-hour chart, the price will likely be lower than 50-, 100- and 200-SMA and moves in a bearish tone. Yet, the 50-SMA being above the 100-SMA may mean a chance for a bullish sentiment. The RSI was found around 40th figure that gives moderate purchases of the pair.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 20, 2019


In today’s trading session, the euro major pair started the day close to 1.1161, hovering close the Friday low of 1.1153.


After the release of the eurozone’s April CPI data, the pair remained quiet and met market expectations. The monthly construction data came out higher than with 6.3% figure compared to the estimate of 1.8%. However, the data optimistic figure of the US Michigan Index limited that chances for the rally of the euro major pair.


The tension of over Italy regarding the EU Fiscal rules has managed the worries of investors amid the rising debt levels of the Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini. He announced the possibility of adjusting higher the debt ceiling to 140% of the GDP, justified that the fiscal policies should adjust over time. There are still other headlines that show less-impact to the movement of the pair.


Today, there will be an important speech from Fed chief Powell. He is expected to give some insights on the economic interests rates in the global trend, which may have an effect on the US Dollar index.


On the 1-hour chart, the price was seen to have stayed lower than the SMA and below both the 100- and 200-SMA, indicating a short-term bullish momentum. The central line of the Bollinger band stayed higher than the pair that could mean a bearish tone.


As for the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands, it was found close to the 1.1151 as the pair drop to the lower area of the Bollinger bands that could also give a bearish sentiment from traders. The RSI moves around 32nd figure with a notion of heavy selling.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 21, 2019


The euro major pair had a better trading than yesterday, which means that there is a chance for a recovery of the pair. Despite the rally of the US dollar, the EUR/USD pair dropped by 0.19%. There was some fresh bids on the USD index prior to the positive data from the US.


The US-Sino trade talks influenced the overall tone of the dollar traders to decrease. Just recently, some companies such as Huawei, Chinese Giant Telecommunication Equipment Company were blacklisted in the US, which then affected the Chinese business. After the news, Huawei clients had retreated, as well as, another chipset manufacturer from Europe. Meanwhile, updates for Android was suspended by Google.


Investors are concerned with the backlash of China against the action of the US. At the same time, this adds pressure over dollar with the continuous uncertainty from trade talks. The EUR/USD pair gained advantage on the weakened dollar.


For today, there is no major events from Europe today except for the Consumer Confidence Index for the month of May from the European Commission. The market perceives the pair to remain a bit bullish at the present condition.


The dollar has already increased prior to the Housing data from the US with a rising forecast. Yet, the increase in the USD index gives a downward pressure to the pair.


The pair has established a downward movement towards the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands. The RSI showed a trend similar to the pair with the range between 35 and 40 levels. It may mean a low momentum and weak interest from investors. At the same time, it seems that there is a low volatility to the pair given the shorter gap between bands of the pair. Resistance levels are expected around 1.1175, 1.1185, and 1.1225 and support close to 1.1136 and 1.1111 levels.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 22, 2019


In the beginning, the euro major pair shows a high chance of recovery. Although the pair attempted for a breakout, it failed to surpass the resistance level of 1.1164. Moving forward, the pair stayed close to the level of 1.1155, showing an opposite downward curve.


On the eve, the pair rose by 0.13% soon after the release of May’s agreement. Nonetheless, the pair could not settle gains and return to the lower level.


With the continued uncertainty for the US-Sino trade war that seems to be moving wrongly. As well, as the damages incurred with the issue with Huawei. This adds pressure to the whole global economy.


Any unexpected result may bring in volatility to the pair while the market presently had high hopes to Brexit, which then plunge the pair downward.


The Fed chief has a scheduled speech for today to discuss the matter of interest rates and other economic concerns. Previously, Draghi said that there is a possibility to keep the interest rates unchanged. The FOMC minutes of the meeting is the focus for today, which will likely have a high impact on the US dollar index.


The trend of the EUR/USD pair seems to be having a bearish tone with the price below the baseline of the Ichimoku clouds on the trend. The further it goes down, the more that it will likely sell. The RSI showed the pair’s movement staying between 50th and 40th figure. It signifies moderate buying and slight interest of investors. The price of the pair was initially at 1.1160 and then declined to 1.1153. In case of a further decline, the pair may find support at 1.1142 and oppositely, it will likely go up until the resistance of 1.1188.