Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: November 05, 2019


The dollar received significant support after the release of Friday data from the US. Labor market statistics exceeded all expectations of market players, which eased concerns about the upcoming recession in the United States. In October, the number of new jobs increased to 128 thousand, while experts predicted growth to just 85 thousand. The ISM business activity index also recovered slightly (48.3 points in October against 47.8 in September).


This week is not rich in macroeconomic data, but today the ISM Service Sector Index can attract attention (at 18:00 Moscow time). If the indicators are at quite stable levels, this may support the dollar in the coming days.


Thus, the EUR/USD pair fell on Tuesday to the level of 1.1125. The dollar feels confident, therefore, during the day, the strengthening of the US currency will continue. The main goal of the dollar “bulls” is the 1.1100 area.

EUR/USD. November 06, 2019 – Dollar will continue growing to the area of 1.1050


Positive news from the front of trade talks between the US and China is supporting the whole range of risky assets. As a result the EUR/USD pair suspended its decline in the area of ​​1.1050 and began to grow to 1.1100. However, the correction of the euro will not be long as the US currency continues to remain strong. During the day, we expect the return of euro quotes to the area of ​​1.1050.


The day before the US dollar got significant support from the publication of US data: the ISM index in the non-manufacturing sector grew up to 54.7 points against expectations the indicator at the level of 53.5 points. Moreover, the dollar receives additional support from the comments of the Fed representatives, signaling the likely completion of a cycle of rate cuts in the United States.

EUR/USD. November 07, 2019 – The positive news on trade talks support the euro


The full range of risky assets received support against the rise of the the news that the US and China agreed on the mutual abolition of duties on part of imported goods. This was stated today by representatives of Chinese Ministry of Commerce, which also noted that further actions of USA and PRC will depend on success in concluding a comprehensive trade deal. As a result, the pair managed to recover from the level of 1.1050 to the level of 1.1090.


However, market players doubt that global trade disagreements between the two largest economies in the world can be resolved at once by signing a nominal deal. Therefore, the risks of further problems in relations between the two countries are still high, and optimism about the success of trade debates may turn out to be short-lived.


Thus, during the day the EUR/USD pair will moderately grow to the level of 1.11.

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GBP/USD. November 08, 2019 – Pound consolidates near 1.28


The British sterling fell to a two-week low at 1.2800. Yesterday the Bank of England kept the key rate unchanged at 0.75%, although two out of nine members of the Committee voted for an immediate reduction in the rate by 25 bp. This results surprised markets, as it was the first split of opinions for the last year. At the same time, the Central Bank lowered its GDP forecast for 2020 and 2021 and the short-term forecast for inflation. According to these forecasts, the regulator suggests only one reduction in interest rates over the next 3 years.


Representatives of the British regulator are concerned about the weak labor market in the country, the slowdown in the global economy, as well as further uncertainty concerning the Brexit issue. Thus, the pair pound/dollar shows a decline below the area of ​​1.28 and keeps here in a stable flat. During the day, we expect further weakening of the British currency.

USD/CAD. November 11, 2019 – Canadian dollar weakens after labor market data


The USD/CAD pair managed to gain a foothold above 1.3200 after the release of weak data on the labor market in Canada, which turned out to be much worse than analysts' forecasts. Experts expected that employment growth would slow from 53 thousand to 15, but current data showed an unexpected decrease in the number of jobs by 1.8 thousand.


Despite the fact that the growth in average wages accelerated, Friday's data reflected the weakness of the Canadian labor market and increased the likelihood of an interest rate reduction by the Bank of Canada by the end of this year.


Against this background, the USD/CAD pair rose to the level of 1.3225 and continue to consolidate in this area at the beginning of the week. Today we expect further moderate growth of the US dollar to 1.3250.

GBP/USD. November 12, 2019 – Pound moderately grows despite weak macroeconomic data


The British sterling today shows growth to the level of 1,2800, despite weaker than expected data on GDP, trade and industrial production in the UK. British GDP grew by only 0.3% in the III quarter (the forecast – growth by 0.4%), the trade balance was at -12.541 billion pounds, and industrial production – -0.3% (the forecast of -0 , 2%).


The British currency was supported by Nigel Farage's comments, that his Brexit party would not oppose the Conservative candidates. This is great news for Boris Johnson, whose chances of winning the December elections have grown significantly after this statement.


However, this positive can be offset by weak macroeconomic data. Today's report on the labor market reflected an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits to 33 thousand. The previous indicator was fixed at around 13.5 thousand.


Thus, today under the influence of multidirectional factors, the sterling will continue to grow moderately to the level of 1.28. However, fixing below this mark is unlikely.

EUR/USD. November 13, 2019 – Euro plummeted to 1.10


The euro continues to decline to the mark of 1.1000 against the backdrop of a deterioration in appetite for risky assets. Pressure on risk was exerted by yesterday's speech of US President D. Trump at the Economic Club of New York. The US leader gave a very contradictory evaluation of the current state of trade negotiations. Trump noted that USA and China nowadays are close to concluding an intermediate phase of a trade deal, however, at the same time, the US intend to further increase import duties from China.


An additional reason for the European currency weakness became the information on possible tariffs by the United States for automotive products in the EU.


Today, attention should be paid to the speech of Fed Chairman J. Powell in Congress. It is expected that his rhetoric will remain as optimistic as it have been after the October meeting of the regulator, which will allow the dollar to maintain a strong position. During the day the pair EUR/USD will fluctuate near the mark of 1.10.

GBP/USD. November 19, 2019 – Pound is likely to weaken


At the beginning of the week, the British sterling showed growth to the level of 1.3000, but the bulls failed to overcome it. Today, the GBP/USD pair has fallen to around 1.2925.


This week is not rich in the publication of macroeconomic data, so the major impact on the dynamics of the British currency will have the first head-to-head debates between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn on ITV. It’s known, that Johnson’s party is far ahead of the Labor Party. The market also likes his words about tax breaks and increased spending, that supports the pound.


However, experts believe that the positive effect of the last deferral of Brexit is almost completely taken into account in quotations. Therefore, with the arrival of new weak macroeconomic data on the British economy, the pound may cease to recover.

EUR/USD. November 20, 2019 – Euro weakly declining amid pessimism over trade negotiations


The euro continues to decline moderately after a steady rise the days before. The current quotation of the pair EUR/USD is 1.1053. The euro is under the influence of conflicting news coming from the front of trade negotiations between the United States and China. On the one hand, the US authorities extended the license for the Chinese company Huawei for another 90 days. On the other hand, the Chinese side still doubts the possibility of concluding a final agreement. This information made many traders go into defensive assets.


Moreover, China has protested against the United States approval of the Hong Kong Bill («On the Protection of Human Rights and Democracy in Hong Kong»), considering it to be interference in China and a violation of international laws. Such actions could again cool the relations between the two countries, which, for its part, negatively affect further trade talks and put strong pressure on risky assets. As a result, the euro may resume decline to the area of ​​1.1030.