Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: February 22, 2019





The dollar against the Japanese yen is trading slightly higher on Friday amid a relatively low volume. For the sixth trading day, volatility stays below the average after below expectations outcome of the US economic data. Various data including Durable Goods, Core Durable Goods, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Flash Manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales are less than expected outcome which settles the Fed concerns over this economic struggle ahead.


Looking at the early price action, the USD/JPY pair will probably trade for short-term at 110.693. If the price stays above 110.693, it will signify the presence of buyers. The initial target of the week’s high at 110.950. Breaking this level would induce an upward growth to change that closing top price reversal of 111.130.


On the other hand, if the price stays below the level of 110.693, it will indicate the presence of sellers. The primary target will be the main Fibonacci level of 110.452. Crossing to the weak side would mean a stronger drive for momentum with the lower limit at 110.255 as the next goal.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 11, 2019





The euro is trading higher on Monday for a while prior to the opening of the US session, driven by the reaction of the market to oversold induced by a steep decline last week. The dovish signals from the ECB last week affect the long-term price movement, hence, we can conclude that the rally will not last for a long time.


It is likely that we are also looking for price parity after the results of a mixed US employment has come out. This implies that the US economy is presently weakening. However, after the recent stimulus program of the ECB, it may mean that the eurozone is on the weaker side of the two nations.


We can expect for low volatility after the release of the US sales report at 12.30 GMT especially if this turns out less than the forecast. The core retail sales report is anticipated to increase by 0.4% while retail sales are likely to come out flat.


According to the daily chart, the price trend is moving downward and if it reaches the level of 1.1176, the downtrend will likely continue. The initial target is the Gann angle at 1.1560 in consideration of the price action at the beginning with upward momentum. Overcoming this angle would mean the short-partaking is getting stronger and could lead to a rally towards the 50% level of 1.1298.


The short-range is presumed to be at 1.1420 and 1.1176 with the retracement zoner at 1.1298 and 1.1327 as the initial upward target. Meanwhile, sellers are likely to test the area given that the main trend is downward. However, if the current intraday fails to exceed today's’ intraday high of 1.1247, then we can assume the possibility of a short-term pullback to a short-term pivot of 1.1213.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 13, 2019





Yesterday’s trading of the EUR/USD pair began in a subdued manner for this week. Meanwhile the price moved upward during the Asian and early European session which limited the gains of investors prior to the UK parliament meeting and limits having any major bets. Even after the release of the a mix macro data from the European calendar, the impact was not that prominent on the price movement but a strong resistance was encountered close to the level of 1.127, which then rallied and traded range-bound. This was supported by the mixed macro data which then weakened the greenback. Soon after, the us dollar gained momentum and strengthened in the late European hours after the release of optimistic US macro data.


The European calendar remains calm from the release of non-farm payroll in France in the fourth quarter while in US session, there is the release of the core CPI update and speech from FOMC member Brainard prior of UK parliament’s vote on Brexit deal. Both of the French and US macro data are unlikely to have a strong impact on the price movement with a neutral forecast or unchanged data. On a technical aspect, a breakout would determine the price direction which will likely be the main reason in short- and long-term outlook. Moreover, with the May deal and widening spread between German and American 10-year bonds will probably favor the US dollar.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 15, 2019





The euro major pair moved in a two-way price movement driven by investor sentiment because of headlines. There is high-risk appetite throughout the day which supported the euro to move in a positive price action early in the day. However, news of a delay in meeting between the Chinese and US presidents to sign a trade deal later this month to April which influenced the investor sentiment to be cautious in the late European market hours. In turn, the EUR/USD pair dropped slightly but attention is still focused on the UK parliament vote to extend the article 50 deadline and price in the majority of global traders.


Investors wait for the release of the macro data to get some hints on the trading session which is about to close for the week. On the fundamental reports, data on Italian CPI & HICP and Euro area CPI data from the EU calendar are expected while report on Industrial production data, JOLTs Job Openings, Michigan Consumer sentiment, and Michigan Consumer expectation from the US are scheduled to be published.


On the technical aspect, there is less resistance on the upper side of the channel if Brexit continued in front of the UK parliament and high-risk appetite in the broad market.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 25, 2019





This week starts with a fresh new high for the euro major pair. However, all of the gains were erased after the release of a weakened European PMI, particularly from the German and Eurozone. The results were not expected by investors. Moreover, will the presence of uncertainty, there was an increase in selling bias for the currency, which resulted to a downward rally which was mainly due to the weakened manufacturing added to the concerns on US-China trade war in the background of Brexit negotiation that affects the overall imports and exports of the nation. Uncertainty will probably resume during the week.


With the big drop of the EUR/USD pair on Thursday, the price could not break the resistance level of 1.1318. This was followed by a slight reversal on Monday morning after its plunge to recover the previous losses and reached 1.131.


Fundamental data from the US particularly the Chicago Fed activity index and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity are anticipated in the afternoon. Meanwhile, reports from German will be published by the CESifo group. This gives signals on the present conditions and business assumptions in Germany. Forecasts are positive for these expected data.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 26, 2019





The euro major pair began the week with optimism after a sharp drop on Friday. They managed to have positive results across the day and close with a slight upward movement at the end of the day. Events on both the EU and the US bond market had a big impact on the price activity. Meanwhile, the bond market induced a risk-averse reaction to the European and American markets. Yet, the positive macro data from Europe as well as a slight rebound in American bond that lessens the aversion of traders to risk in yesterday’s price movement.


The German macro data favored the euro to have gains. During the US session, it was apparent that there is a healthy risk appetite on trading activity. Thus, the euro closed on an optimistic note in the broad global market yesterday. Yet, the bond market still gives hints for a US recession, which also restricted the gains for euro yesterday.


During the Asian hours, the pair traded range-bound prior to the update of the EU macro data, which will confirm the positive signals. At the same time, the pair has a bearish pressure due to Brexit negotiation. In the meantime, traders are heedful and careful in placing major trades, although the positive fundamental macro data can drive momentum and short-term opportunities for direction.


Today, data on Building Permits, Housing starts, and CB consumer confidence are anticipated from the US and the release of GFK German Consumer Climate data are scheduled from the eurozone.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 28, 2019





The euro major pair had a slight correction at the beginning of the Thursday session after the rise in the US dollar index. It rose with a dovish sentiment from the major world banks.


Yesterday, the ECB President Mario Draghi gave a signal of a possibility of a decline in the global economy. The central bank of New Zealand maintained the interest rate but hinted at the likelihood of a rate cut in the near term before or around the month of November. The price remained calm at the level of 1.1387 after the news saying that Theresa May will resign if the deal on Brexit is rejected twice.


Despite the global economy being sensitive, the EUR/USD pair may still have a bright outlook and remain optimistic on closing amid the major events today. Data on business climate for March and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) index for March from the eurozone are anticipated to be released from Europe while the GDP for the fourth fiscal year is scheduled to be released from the US. This data is important as it would have an impact on major currency pairs including the euro.


The Simple Moving Average was found above the pair’s trading level, which gives a bearish tone for the day. It was able to reach the resistance level of 1.1267 in the past few days and there is a chance to achieve this area again today. However, it seems that there is no momentum to push the pair considering the MACD indicator.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 3, 2019





The euro declined more than the strong resistance level of 1.1192 during the North American session after the drop in US-German yield spread. However, the decline seems to have diminished on Wednesday morning. The attempt to work on the strong resistance level has succeeded as it moved slowly towards the next resistance level.


With the most recent optimistic news related to the US-China trade deal almost close to the resolution supported the crude oil prices up to $70 per barrel level, which is also anticipated to raise the EUR/USD pair.


In the Eurozone, Markit will release the March PMI monthly Composite Reports on Manufacturing and services for Eurozone, which is expected to be close to the previous result. Additionally, the February Retail Sales (YoY) from Eurostat is also scheduled in the eurozone. Meanwhile, in the US, the March Non-Manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will be published. Although, this won’t have a big impact.


The pair broke the upper level of 1.1220/1.2230 from 78.6 retracement level. Yet, it failed to break the resistance level of 1.1270 as it trades higher than the SMA for the important levels to come. The pair now have a bullish sentiment on its future outlook. Yet, the MACD shows no hints of bullishness to buy.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 8, 2019





The euro major pair is trading at a higher price on Monday session but stays in the range of yesterday for the third time. This chart movement imposes indecision and impending volatility which is driven by a weaker US dollar.


There is pressure over the dollar after the result of sluggish growth of the US non-farm payroll report with subdued average hourly growth. Hence, traders are likely to set positions prior to the release of the minutes of the meeting of the US Fed on monetary policy on Wednesday.


Although, the pair shows upward main trend to the swing chart despite the longer downward trend. After buyers broke through the previous main top at 1.1420 and trading to 1.1177 will shift the trend downward. However, a move towards 1.1448 will probably cause a continuation of the upward movement.


A maintained move higher than 1.1232 will indicate the presence of buyers with the first upper target at the minor top of 1.1255. Passing this level could bring the euro pair to the next upward Gann angle of 1.1287 with highly likely speed up to 50% level of 1.1316.


On the other hand, if the price stays below 1.1232, this would mean the presence of sellers with the next downward target at 1.1183, 1.1185 and 1.1187. A rebound is anticipated on the primary test of 1.1183 to 1.1187. But if this does not happen, then we can anticipate for the pair to extend up towards the bottom of 1.1177 and the trend with shift downward through this main downtrend.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 11, 2019





The euro major pair extended its consolidation within the range of 1.1273 and 1.1280. With rising geopolitical tensions from the FOMC minutes and the most recent update on Brexit, the growth of the global economy is affected negatively.


The US dollar remained weak after the FOMC published a dovish sentiment on economic growth.


The EU officials announced a flexible extension of Brexit until October 31, which means that Britain can exit before the deadline before the set date given that the deal can be ratified before the specified date. This means that they are hoping for EU to finish at an earlier data. In case that the UK is unsuccessful to ratify the deal on May 23rd, it means that EU elections can take place.


In the eurozone, Data on Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY), the Consumer Price Index (YoY), Consumer Price Index (MoM) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices(HICP) (MoM) is scheduled to be released today. On the other hand, in the US, data on March Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY), an update on weekly Initial Jobless Claims as well as Counting Jobless Claims are anticipated to be published today.


Henceforth, the euro traded range-bound during the Asian session and remained in the range at 1.1255/1.1285. The EUR/USD pair trades above the Ichimoku clouds, as well as the baseline and the conversion line, giving a bullish signal on future movements. The Bollinger bands remain on a decline, signifying less volatility. The euro major pair hovered at the upper boundary that could open the possibility for a bullish trend.