Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: February 3

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the Japanese industrial sector reached 52.3 in opposition to the reported 52.4. The Investor's Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism is at the reported median 47,8 published by the US and the New York ISM is at 718,9 in opposition to the preceding 716,6.

The first support occurs at 120.40 and at 119.20 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 121.30 and at 122.20 subsequently.

A sturdy and confirmed buy signal was found. The price is on top of the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen forms an upward motion. The ascending movement will be until the price is on top of the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is recovering.


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For January, the level of the US PMI Composite from IMS is at 53.5 whereas the previous value was 55.3 and the report was at 55.1 which was published by the United States. Moreover, the ADP Employment Change for January is at 205,000 whereas the preceding value was 267,000 and the report was 195,000 which was issued by the USA. In 2015, the unemployment rate of the Eurozone reduced by 0.8% to the level of 10.4%. The status apparently shows the ECB soft monetary policy. The low cost euro rate and liquidity added a support to the development of the real economy. The Euro area Retail Sales displayed 1,4% y/y and 0,3% m/m in opposition to the reported 1,5% y/y and 0,3% m/m. The EUR/USD pair signified a sturdy growth by the end of the trades. Also in 2015, the Gross Domestic Product of the UK increased by 2.17% in contrast to the growth of 2.85% in 2014. Simultaneously, the growth rate of the United States was 2.38% and 2.42% for the same period. The slowdown of the UK economy is more substantial compared in the USA which has been a negative factor for the currency. The GBP/USD pair strengthened. A somewhat unstable dynamics was formed by the dollar. The currency modulated in opposition to the yen which is still yearned even though a new wave of risk aversion arises. This week, the stock indices reduced which outstandingly losing ground as an aftermath of the descending of oil prices after the astonishing previous growth. In the midst of all these, buyers were interested in the Japanese yen. A non-manufacturing PMI has been issued. The index of EU displayed a 53.6 concurrently with the report. The similar index signified 53.2 in the USA, the report was 53.7. The Non-Manufacturing PMI of the UK occurred at 55.6 in opposition to the reported 55.3

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Mr. Thomas Jordan, head of the Switzerland National Bank restated that the franc was overbought and the Central Bank was all set to interpose if needed. Nevertheless, Mr. Jordan refused to tell if the bank had an intervention recently. Switzerland issued the Consumer Climate index Q1 forecast. The index is at -14.0 and the previous value was -18.0.

The first support occurs at 0.9850 and at 0.9750 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 0.9960 and at 1.0100 subsequently.

A sturdy and confirmed sell signal was found. The price is below the Ichimooku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen formed a descending motion creating a "Dead Cross". The descending motion will be until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative area. The price is declining.


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The USA labor market attracts the attention of all traders through its statistics. The dollar still manage to stabilize its spot in spite of the fact that the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report has not stretched out even to a moderate status of what was reported 190,000 but only reflected 151,000 and the preceding value was re-assessed downward. But somehow, the trades were different directed on Monday.

A solid leap of 0.5% from 0.0% was made by the US Average Hourly Earnings. In the meantime, having a sudden fall by 5.0%, the unemployment rate attained a recurrent low level of 4.9%. A very vital thing for the Fed is the increase of the wage rate, pertaining to the inflation acceleration prospects that results to the dollar disregarding the poor NFP and drew attention on the Hourly Earnings outcome. The EURO did not show any pivotal data. The EUR/USD showed a slight increase by the end of the trades.

It is always a traditional bearish factor for British currency the bond yield spreads growth of the US and UK government as a result of the Friday's labor market release. However, the oil market bulls were extended which has a positive effect on the pound value. The pound/dollar returned upwards after a decrease.

The publishing of the Monetary Policy Meeting minutes will be held on February 18. In the meantime, the unpredictability in the world markets have a negative effect on business sentiment as stated by the Bank of Japan chairman. The currency pair USD/JPY aggressively decreased.

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The outpouring of the capital from the British assets cause the government bonds yield remarkably lessen in opposition to the US Treasuries and the German bonds. In turn, this component gave a negative effect on the Cable. The Sterling were rather toned up.

The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.

A poor and confirmed buy signal was found. The price is on top of the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates a descending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion, displaying a "Dead Cross". The ascending motion will remain as much as the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in an impartial location. The price is increasing. We may hope for the stabilization at the present levels. The descending bounce probable target is at 1.4400. If the price increases it will break over 1.4480.


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Generally, the trader's adherence regarding the world's economic development loosen up and the energy sector's fate is a factor for a new wave of stock indices selling. Immense slate of companies' insolvency abreast with the Deutsche Bank difficult situations whose shares have dropped to the record lows, dispirited investors from trading high-risk assets.

We must not rely on the remarkable growth of euro in the medium term due to the industrial production and trade balance poor statistics of Germany for December. In 2015, the industrial production signified an increase of 0.8% but decreased by 2.2%. It is not exceedingly profitable to have a sturdy euro as we find a stable negative trend. The EUR/USD reduced by the end of the trades.

The UK issued the industrial production deliverance for the month of December. The index occurs at -1.1% m/m. The GBP/USD pair, in spite of poor manufacturing industry data, rapidly left the lows. The pair slightly grew.

This week key event is part of the speech of Janet Yellen, an American economist, to Congress. Her perspective concerning the economy state and the monetary policy future shall determine additional prospects of the dollar which has weakened lately. The USD/JPY pair decreased by the end of the trades.

Janet Yellen stated that their goal to expand the interest rates in short-term may loosen up due to the risks in the US economy. The China's economic innovation set a negative effect on the US economy and the trader's inflation anticipations keep on decreasing. The Fed chairman did not discuss about the probable interest rates increase yet the mentioned risks cause her to speak softly pointing out concerns regarding this year's Fed rate hikes.


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The Fed meeting has gone by and the regulator made changes in his plans and declared only two rate hikes instead of four. The market also remained unstable after the meeting.

The demand for euro as a funding currency keep on growing in spite of the fact that the "risk appetite" is also increasing. This factor was completely disregarded by the market which manifested the presence of strong buyers. The dynamics of the debt market signified varied trends as the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany increased in connection in the UK, but decreased to US Treasuries. The EUR/USD pair decreased by the end of the trades.

We did not received any significant macroeconomic data from the UK. We think that investors will be more attentive on the dynamics of oil market. Improving the highest of the last trading week, black gold fell by 3%. The demand for oil affected the pound/dollar pair in a usual positive way. The GBP/USD grew by the end of the trades.

The dollar/yen pair marked a new low for the last 14 months. This kind of aggrandizement of the yen could be a menace to exporters and may also disgruntle the monetary authorities of Japan. The US issued consumer confidence from the University of Michigan wherein it showed 91,7 contrary to the reported 92,1. The USD/JPY pair grew by the end of the trades.


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As the United States and Japan government bonds yields divergence decreased to some extent, the debt market dynamics manifested an averaged demand for the Japanese currency. This also cause to lessen the appeal of the US assets. The USD/JPY pair grew a bit by the end of the trades.

The first support occurs at 111.40 and at 110.60 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 112.20 and at 113.00 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.


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Being halted from increasing in opposition to the major currencies on Tuesday, the dollar still gained support caused by the investors who stick on being heedful as a round of terrorist attacks in Brussels killed 26 people and left more than 100 injured. This devastating events in Brussels affected the euro and the British pound negatively.

The market slightly strengthened in the absence of important macroeconomic reports. Likewise, US releases did not help to enliven the market. The existing Home Sales for February embark at a low level wherein it was lessened by 7.1% whereas analysts had hoped for a more moderate fall of 2.8%. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February embarked at -0.29 contrary to the reported +.025 and the previous value of +0.41.

Our focus will be on the IFO Institute release. The dynamics of Gross Domestic Product of Germany is closely corresponded with this indicator and investors always keep an eye on it. This indicator has been consistently giving a negative trend for the last three months. In the midst of euro's growth, the market did not anticipated the data to be better than the consensus report. However, the data embarked at the level of 106,7 contrary to the reported 106,0. The euro/dollar pair decreased.

An Inflation Report was released by the UK. As expected, the sturdy labor market data pointed to the forecast that was a little better than the consensus report. The average monthly income was 0.2% in the last three months which would heighten inflationary pressures whilst the unemployment in UK is at the bottom-most level now since 2005. The Consumer Price Index embarked at the level of 0,3% y/y and 0,2% m/m contrary to the reported 0,4% y/y and 0,4% m/m. The pound/dollar pair aggressively declined by the end of the trades.

As of now, we are not expecting a sturdy increase of quotations. The investors were not pleased with the United States' poor macroeconomic data wherein the Existing Home Sales for February lessened by 7.1%. The home sales reduced by 6.7% from January to March which only certified again the assumptions that the Americans started to save more than spending. The dollar/yen pair became stronger.

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Sterling continued its low trajectory on Wednesday amidst negative economic data, terrorism attacks in Europe, and rising worry surrounding the Brexit.

The Bank of England announced a stagnant 0.3 percent inflation rate, missing the projected 0.4 percent rise. The news was paired with a looming interest rate cut, which has been standing at 0.5 percent since 2009. The nearest rate increase is in another three years, while the US is expecting at least two rate hikes this year, pushing the dollar upward.

UK’s controversial 2016 budget was also bad news for the ailing pound. Many were disappointed with budget cuts, with Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Duncan Smith resigning on Friday over lower disability benefits.

The pound fell further from its 1.4251 after the inflation announcement.

The first support occurred at 1.4094 and 1.4024 subsequently. The first resistance was at 1.4304 and 1.4375 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at positive location. The price is falling.

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