Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

June 15. China again threatens all world trade

The partial closure of the Yantian terminal at the Chinese port of Shenzhen is putting the entire global container trade at risk. Experts note that the consequences of such a failure could be much more serious than the blocking of the Suez Canal by the ship Ever Given in March this year.

Recall that the blockage of the Suez Canal affected 55 thousand TEU (a unit of measurement for the capacity of freight vehicles) per day and lasted six days. Problems in Yantian can affect 25.5 thousand TEU per day, and they have been going on for more than two weeks.

The reason for the closure of the terminal was the outbreak of coronavirus in the Chinese province of Guangdong, where the port is located. In addition to Yantian, problems arose in the nearest terminals Shekou (Shenzhen city) and Nansha (Guangzhou). It is worth noting that these are the third and fifth largest ports in the world.

A large amount of cargo has already accumulated outside the port, some of which is being redirected to the ports of Nanshu, Shekou and Hong Kong, but their capacity is no longer enough. Complicating the situation is the fact that customs requirements differ in Chinese ports, which also limits the possibility of redirecting cargo flows.

June 16. The Netherlands intends to create a hydrogen exchange

The Netherlands, home to one of the world's premier natural gas trading hubs, TTF, is planning a hydrogen exchange. The project has already been named HyXchange.

The national gas company Gasunie conducted some studies, according to which it became clear that certification is required for the practical organization of a hydrogen exchange, as well as the creation of a spot market (at the very beginning of the simulation), a price index, mechanisms for balancing physical volumes and storing hydrogen.

The hydrogen price index is supposed to take into account the method of its production and the degree of the achieved reduction of CO2 emissions.

The initiators of the initiative, represented by Gasunie, the country's port authorities and market participants, are confident that the H2 exchange can serve as a catalyst for the development of the climate-neutral hydrogen market. Experts see the transportation of hydrogen from different production methods (both «green» and other low-carbon H2) in the same network, as is the case with electricity or gas. At the same time, its added value for consumers will be preserved thanks to certification.

June 17. Investors prepare for volatility amid expectations of stimulus collapse

The Federal Reserve is starting to talk about curtailing super-soft monetary policy, which may cause high volatility in the near future.

The first increase in the Fed's interest rate is possible in 2023, and not in 2024, as previously predicted. Moreover, the regulator has begun debates about when and how it would be appropriate to start scrapping the massive $120 billion a month bond buying program.

Previously, it was planned that the program will continue until significant progress is made in the recovery of the labor market and in bringing inflation closer to the target level of 2%. And according to forecasts, inflation will well exceed the regulator's target, accelerating to 3.5% this year.

The question of when exactly the Fed will roll back stimulus has had a huge impact on financial markets: stocks have declined, the dollar has jumped to two-month highs, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has surged.

Experts note that the current situation is reminiscent of 2013, when the Fed unexpectedly for everyone put forward the idea of ​​gradually winding up the quantitative easing program. Bond yields rose sharply then, and the underlying 10-year yield jumped from an approximate 2% in May to 3% in early September.

June 18. European stock exchanges decline on Friday

On Friday morning, the major stock indexes in Europe showed a decline after the comments of the US Federal system on monetary policy.

In particular, the British FTSE 100 index fell by 0.8%, to 7096.04 points, the French CAC 40 – by 0.04%, to 6662.86 points, and the German DAX fell by 0.43%, to 15659.65.

Investors continue to assess the situation in the markets and analyze the comments of the US Federal Reserve. According to the head of the Fed J. Powell, the key rate may be raised by 2023, which means a decrease in the flow of liquidity to the markets. Prior to that, the rate hike was not expected until 2024.

In addition, retail sales in the UK in May rose 24.6% on an annualized basis. At the same time, analysts predicted a growth rate of 29%. This can explain the strong decline in the FTSE 100 index.

June 21. Crypto traders lost $1 billion due to Chinese bans

The central bank of China has called on financial institutions to fight harder against cryptocurrency trading. The People's Bank of China urged banks to immediately close payment gateways for clients trading in cryptocurrencies. In addition to this, the country's third largest bank has also imposed restrictions on clients whose activity is related to cryptocurrencies.

The digital currency market immediately reacted to this news with a strong fall, by more than 6%, and the capitalization of the entire crypto market dropped to $1.46 trillion. The bitcoin rate fell to $31,828. In the daily interval, traders lost about $1 billion.

The largest liquidation was recorded in the bitcoin market, and traders spent ~$618 million.The Ether (ETH) market records liquidations for ~$267 million, and XRP – for $43 million.

Moreover, the hashrate of the Bitcoin network also showed a drop. For example, today the cryptocurrency hash rate has dropped to 91 Exaches/sec. The last time the network recorded such values ​​back in November 2020. However, experts note that the reduction in the hash rate may be due to the relocation of miners from China: in mid-May, China announced a fight against cryptocurrency miners under the pretext of protecting the financial system and reducing carbon emissions.

June 22. Oil prices rise above $ 75 for the first time since the beginning of 2019

World oil prices hit a new two-year high, rising to $75.28 for the first time since 2019. Since the beginning of the year, the price of Brent has risen by almost 40%.

The oil market was supported by expectations of a recovery in oil demand against the backdrop of a growing global economy, as well as a pause in negotiations on a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran.

The fact is that the presidential election in Iran was won by the supporter of the «hard» line Raisi. And given the fact that it has already been imposed by US sanctions, any deal with Washington now seems unlikely.

At the same time, the recovery of the economies of the USA, Europe and China is causing an increase in demand, despite the difficult epidemiological situation in a number of countries. At the same time, the beginning of the tourist season may lead to an increase in oil prices to new highs. Some analysts even predict the growth of Brent quotes to the $100 per barrel area.

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June 23. Moody’s: the US expects the market to fall

The representative of the international agency Moody’s, which monitors the state of economies in different countries, said that investors should wait for the fall in the value of major market assets by 10-20%.

Last year, the US cut the rate to almost zero to revive the economy and consumer demand. However, demand and inflation in the US are now outstripping forecasts, which could force the Fed to raise loan rates and reduce bond redemptions in the market to contain the rise in prices. And after that the quotes will inevitably collapse by 10-20%.

The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics noted in his interview that the list of risky assets today includes both stocks and bonds, as well as commodities and cryptocurrencies. At the same time, experts do not expect a quick recovery of quotations on the stock market, because the value of shares is already at its maximums. It is estimated that it may take a year to cover losses after a market crash.

The Dow Jones posted its largest weekly drop since October 2020, shedding 3.5%. The S&P 500 experienced its worst week since the end of February, falling more than 2%. The Nasdaq hi-tech index also dipped, but it remains just 1.3% below its all-time high.

June 25. Elon Musk contributed to the creation of a new token

Tesla founder Elon Musk once again took advantage of his influence on the cryptocurrency market, leading to the creation of a new token.

In his Twitter account, Musk published a harmless post: «My Shiba Inu puppy will be called Floki.» After that, the value of the Shiba Inu token (SHIB) rose sharply – by 15%. Earlier, the cryptocurrency dropped significantly after China took a number of measures to restrict mining and trading in cryptocurrencies. Then the price of Shiba Inu fell by about 50% from a peak to a low from June 15 to 22.

Analysts believe that the coin may fully recover in the near future. The growth of Shiba Inu may even surpass the growth rate of Dogecoin.

Meanwhile, 9 minutes after Musk's publication, the Floki token was created on the Uniswap decentralized crypto exchange and its price increased by 795% per hour, to $0.000000001100.

In early May, Elon Musk wrote that he was looking for a Shiba Inu puppy. Then the cost of a token with the same name increased by 68% per hour. Later, Shiba Inu was listed by two crypto exchanges Coinbase Pro and Binance.

July 07. UAE will not support the extension of the OPEC + deal

The UAE intends to abandon the plan to extend the oil production limitation agreement beyond April 2022, unless the country's reference base to reduce production is increased. The UAE is demanding an increase in the reference base for a reduction in production from 3.168 to 3.8 million b/d.

The Emirates agree to increase OPEC + oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day from August, but believe that the plan for extending the 2020 agreement should be discussed separately.

Earlier, the UAE Energy Minister Suheil al-Mazroui said that the country is ready to increase oil production when the market demands it. However, at the moment there is no need to make a decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement until the end of 2022. «The deal is valid for another nine months, and we have plenty of time to discuss it later,» the minister said.

In response, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman called on the UAE for compromise and rationality to reach an OPEC + agreement on Monday.