Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

July 06. European stock exchanges decline on statistics for Germany

The main stock indexes in Europe on Tuesday decreased after the publication of statistics on Germany, which turned out to be worse than forecasted.

In particular, the British FTSE 100 index fell by 0.2% – to 7150.85 points, the French CAC 40 – by 0.46%, to 6537.05 points, the German DAX fell by 0.51%, to 15582.25 points.

Market participants drew attention to German statistics, according to which the index of investor confidence in the country's economy in July fell to 63.3 points from 79.8 points in June. Analysts had expected the indicator to decline only to 75.2 points.

In addition, the volume of factory orders in Germany in May fell by 3.7% on a monthly basis against an increase of 1.2% a month earlier. Analysts predicted a 1% growth in the indicator.

At the same time, the statistics on retail sales in May turned out to be better than forecasted: the indicator in monthly terms increased by 4.6%, and in annual terms – by 9%.

July 7. The EC raised its forecast for growth and inflation in the eurozone

The European Commission has revised upward its estimates of economic growth in the eurozone in 2021 and 2022, while warning about the risks associated with new strains of coronavirus. The EC also expects higher than previously predicted inflation this year for all 19 EU countries, but assumes that consumer price growth will slow down in 2022.

This year, the European Commission expects the euro area to grow at 4.8% this year, much higher than the 4.3% forecast in May. Such a serious revision is mainly associated with the removal of lockdowns and the opening of the economies of the EU countries in the second quarter.

The European region is expected to grow 4.5% next year, higher than the 4.4% growth forecast published in May.

Inflation, according to forecasts of the European Commission, this year will reach 1.9%, compared with 1.7% in the May forecast. In 2022, inflation is expected to slow down to 1.4%. Recall that the target inflation threshold of the European Central Bank is just below 2%.

At the same time, representatives of the regulator note that inflation may turn out to be higher than predicted if problems with supply chains are more stable, and price pressure will have a stronger effect on consumer prices.

July 08. Russia tries to rescue stalled OPEC+ talks

Russia is trying to help resolve disputes between Saudi Arabia and the UAE in negotiations on a deal to increase production in the coming months. However, disagreements are still relevant, and the date of the next meeting of the OPEC+ pact partners has not yet been determined.

And these disagreements between the two countries of the Persian Gulf may exert strong pressure on the oil market, where Brent prices have recently reached highs of 2.5 years.

OPEC+ ministers canceled talks on Monday after the UAE did not support a proposed eight-month extension of production restrictions last week. As a result, the countries were unable to agree on a deal to increase production.

Russia is counting on further growth in oil production, actively working with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to find a solution on the future of the deal. The Russian side hopes that the next meeting of the alliance members will take place next week.

July 09. Oil rises after data on US oil reserves

The oil market is showing an upturn at the end of the week after the release of data on US oil inventories. According to statistics from the US Department of Energy, US oil inventories fell by 6.9 million barrels in the week ended July 2. At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels. Analysts predicted a decline in oil reserves by 4 million barrels, and gasoline – by 2.2 million barrels.

According to the trading data, the price of Brent rose to $74.95 per barrel, WTI added 0.88% to $73.93. Prior to that, both benchmarks fell by almost 3% over the week amid traders' fears that the failure of OPEC+ negotiations could lead to an increase in oil supplies to the market.

The current decline in US oil reserves has bolstered investor sentiment that fuel demand is increasing as the US travel season begins. However, despite this positive background, the risks of a decline in oil prices are still relevant. The fact is that disagreements still persist between Saudi Arabia and the UAE when concluding a deal to increase production in the coming months.

July 14. Bitcoin can grow to $37 thousand by August

On Tuesday, the main cryptocurrency disappointed investors again, dipping to the lowest value in 5 days. The asset price fell below $32 thousand and continued to move sluggishly down this morning.

Another drop in bitcoin occurred against the background of yesterday's publication of data on inflation in the United States. The price increase, which has reached a record level since 2018, may provoke a change in the current course of the US Federal Reserve in the direction of tightening monetary policy. And this is a negative agenda for risky assets, including digital currencies.

At the same time, analysts note that the cryptocurrency market is already very tired of bad news. This is evidenced by the amorphous reaction of the market to the latest unfavorable events for it. Investors, for example, almost ignored the next comments of the Chinese government about cryptocurrencies.

Traders also reacted coolly to the campaign launched by the United Kingdom, Japan, and other countries against the Binance cryptocurrency exchange. The "war" affected only the interests of residents of these states, throwing them problems with replenishing their accounts.

However, the mentioned battles did not affect the affairs of the exchange itself in any way. The dynamics of Binance Coin is proof of this: over the past week, the asset has demonstrated the best performance among the digital currencies in the top 10.

On this basis, some experts believe that the probability of the cancellation of the stimulating policy in the United States, as well as the work initiated by the Fed in the field of regulating the crypto industry, should not exert super-strong pressure on bitcoin and other coins.

This opinion is shared by the head of the Avanti cryptocurrency bank, Caitlin Long. Yesterday, she said that the US regulator is going to complicate access to payment systems and bank accounts for companies whose activities are related to digital assets.

On July 13, the stage of the public opinion poll on the document, the adoption of which was initiated by the Federal Reserve, was completed. This project will determine the principles on the basis of which requests for access to the services of the regulator will be evaluated.

According to the Wall Street veteran, the repression has already begun, but it will not directly affect bitcoin and other assets, but at the same time, of course, intermediaries will suffer.

The expert believes that if the document is adopted, the situation of 4 years ago may repeat, when many crypto companies lost their bank deposits.

The forecast of the head of the ICB Fund investment department, Aaron Chomsky, is also positive. He is confident that in the long term, the digital asset market is waiting for growth, despite the possible tightening of conditions for the crypto industry by the US Federal Reserve.

The expert is also optimistic about the medium-term dynamics of the main virtual coin. According to him, by August, the price of bitcoin can soar to $37 thousand.

The expert concluded that on-chain indicators indicate that the mood of many investors, including those who suffered from the relocation of miners from China, has changed. Traders have switched from selling to accumulating assets, which increases the probability of a bullish trend.

At the same time, Chomsky sees great growth potential in the main competitor of bitcoin. In his opinion, by the end of July, Ethereum is able to reach the $2,500 mark. The launch of the "London" update in the official altcoin network as part of its transition to the 2.0 protocol will serve as a springboard for the asset.

USD plunges after Powell's testimony

The US dollar plunged on Wednesday after Jerome Powell's testimony in Congress.

During his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, the Fed's chair said that the US economy was still a way off from the central bank's goal. The Committee would discuss the possibility of changes to asset purchases when it sees enough progress toward its goal. In fact, the head of the Federal Reserve said nothing new. His stance on monetary policy has been the same since the beginning of the year at least. Therefore, investors did not expect his rhetoric to change in July. Besides, Powell acknowledged that inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months.

As a result, the US dollar index that measures the value of USD relative to the value of the basket of six major currencies went down from its extreme points. The index plunged by 0.36% to 92.42 points. The indicator has fallen to the level of 92.80 points for the second time this month. Thus, the downward momentum to the lower boundary of the trading range at 89.20-89.60 may well begin.

Ahead of the chair's testimony in Congress, inflation statistics came out in the United States. According to the latest data, the inflation rate in the US has hit a fresh high unseen for over 13 years. At the same time, a sharp increase in inflation came after several years of balancing near alarmingly low levels amid a rapid recovery of the US economy. This in turn triggered a spike in the US dollar to the 3-months high. Apart from that, the issue of tapering by the world's central banks has once again become relevant.

Another reason for considering this possibility came after the announcement of the Canadian regulator's decision. The Bank of Canada plans to reduce weekly bond purchases from CA$3 billion to CA$2 billion. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced a halt to its pandemic-induced bond purchase program, which could lead to an increase in interest rates as early as next month.

American stock indices fell 0.8-0.9%

According to CNBC, while many of the country's largest companies reported high net income and revenue figures amid the economic recovery, the stock market response has generally been subdued.

Statistics released on Friday indicated unexpected growth in US retail sales last month.

US retail sales rose 0.6% in June from the previous month, the country's Commerce Department said. Experts predicted an average decline of 0.4%.

Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index in the US in July fell to 80.8 points from 85.5 points a month earlier, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan, which calculates this indicator. This is the lowest figure since February this year. Meanwhile, analysts on average predicted an increase to 86.5 points. The Wall Street Journal respondents had expected growth to 86.3 points.

E-Trade Financial's managing director of investment strategy, Mike Levengart, noted that the sharp deterioration in consumer confidence appears to have overshadowed upbeat earnings reports and retail sales growth data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average by the close of trading dropped by 299.17 points (0.86%) and amounted to 34687.85 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 lost 32.87 points (0.75%), down to 4327.16 points.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 115.90 points (0.80%) to 14,427.24 points.

Over the week, the Dow fell 0.52%, the S&P 500 fell 0.97%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.87%.

Charles Schwab Corp. decreased by 2.4%, although the American banking and brokerage company almost doubled its net profit in the second quarter, while its revenue was better than expected.

Intel Corp. fell in price by 1.5%. One of the world's leading manufacturers of computer components is allegedly in talks to buy chip maker GlobalFoundries for $ 30 billion.

Moderna Inc. have risen in price by 10.3%. The shares of the American biotech company will be included in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, the index provider S&P Dow Jones Indices said. The changes will come into effect on July 21st. Moderna will replace Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. AstraZeneca Plc, a Swedish-British pharmaceutical company, is in the process of acquiring Alexion, with completion expected shortly. Alexion Pharmaceuticals was down 0.3%.

US stock market crashes as investors worry about Delta variant spread

While the Delta variant of coronavirus is marching around the world and inflation is rising, hopes for the development and growth of the global economy are dashing quickly. Stock indices, oil prices, and US government bonds yields have already fallen.

A similar scenario played out at the very beginning of the outbreak of the coronavirus. Investors rushed to sell shares of companies that incurred losses on the introduction of quarantine restrictions. At the same time, they started purchasing government bonds and shares of companies that could benefit from transitioning staff to work remotely.

Meanwhile, oil prices went down after the oil exporting countries agreed to increase production.

All major stocks plunged: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.1%, the S&P 500 tumbled by 1.6%, and the NASDAQ Composite dropped by 1.1%. American Airlines Group and United Airlines stocks plummeted by 4-6%, while Marathon Oil and Diamondback Energy lost 5%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note posted its biggest decline since mid-February, 1.18%. Brent futures contracts plunged by 6.8%.

Candice Bangsund from Fiera Capital reckons that the new variant of coronavirus would postpone economic growth, which in turn may provide investors with an opportunity to buy shares of oil and gas companies, as well as manufacturing and financial firms, at a lower price

Economic recovery concerns caused turbulence in markets not only in the US but also worldwide. Thus, the STOXX Europe 600 sagged 2,3% along with tourism and commodity stocks. As for the Asian market, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.8% amid a plunge in Alibaba and Tencent stocks, and the Nikkei 225 declined by 1.3%. Indonesia and Australia reported on a surge in cases of the Delta variant.

Market experts suggest that the fast spread of COVID-19 and low vaccination rates in Asia are weighing on investors' sentiment, urging them to shift their investments from Asia to markets in countries with higher vaccination rates.

American stock indices rose by 1.5-1.6%

Statistics released on Tuesday indicated a significantly larger-than-expected growth in the number of new buildings in the United States in the past month.

The number of homes that began construction in the United States in June increased by 6.3% from the previous month to 1.643 million at an annual rate, the country's Department of Commerce said. This is the highest figure for the last three months. Analysts' median forecast was for a 1.2% increase in the last month, according to surveys by Trading Economics and MarketWatch.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average by the close of trading rose by 549.95 points (1.62%) and amounted to 34511.99 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 gained 64.57 points (1.52%), rising to 4323.06 points.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 223.89 points (1.57%) to 14498.88 points.

A number of shares, which dropped significantly on Monday, rose steadily on Tuesday. United Airlines Holdings Inc. increased by 6.6%, Delta Air Lines Inc. rose 5.5%, American Airlines Group Inc. increased by 8.4%.

Royal Caribbean Group shares rose 7.7%, capitalization of Carnival Corp. increased by 7.5%.

On Tuesday, shares of major American banks also rose in price: JPMorgan Chase & Co. added 1.9%, Bank of America Corp. - 2.1%.

Halliburton Co. increased by 3.7%. The American oilfield services company returned to profitable levels in the second quarter, its size per share exceeded its forecast.

International Business Machines (IBM) shares rose 1.5%. The company increased its revenue in the second quarter of 2021 by 3% compared to the same period a year earlier. Revenue growth was recorded for the second quarter in a row, which encouraged investors, as the figure was falling in the previous four quarters. Over the past 34 quarters to the beginning of this year, IBM recorded a decline in revenue in annual terms 30 times, writes MarketWatch.

Nasdaq Inc. added 2.1% in price. The exchange plans to create a separate segment for its private equity market in partnership with a group of American banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, writes The Wall Street Journal.

Comcast Corp. have risen in price by 0.8%. CEO Brian Roberts and Chairman of ViacomCBS Inc. Shari Redstone discussed the possibility of partnerships in the field of streaming in international markets, writes The Wall Street Journal, citing knowledgeable sources. ViacomCBS rose 2.3%.

Gold is stalling, but it is saving up strength for a breakthrough

In recent days, the mood of the yellow asset has been very changeable. Gold fell on Monday, rose slightly on Tuesday, collapsed to a 2-week low on Wednesday, and again found the strength to get up on Thursday.

The decline in gold in the middle of the working week was significant. Against the background of the strengthened dollar and the growing yield of 10-year US bonds on Wednesday, the quotes dived to the lowest level since July 8, and barely managed to stay above the psychological mark of $1,800.

However, everything changed yesterday. The dollar was unable to maintain some of its positions. The opposite dynamics was also demonstrated by the bond yield. The indicator moved down after the release of data on the US labor market.

The published statistics turned out to be worse than forecasts. During the week, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States increased by 51 thousand and reached the maximum value since May of 419 thousand. Meanwhile, analysts expected the indicator to decrease to 350 thousand.

Weak data on the labor market indicate that the Fed will refrain from curtailing incentives and raising interest rates in the near future. This is a wake-up call for the dollar, but a good signal for gold.

Having received support, the yellow asset closed at $1,805.40 on the New York COMEX Exchange yesterday. The difference from the previous trades was $2, or 0.1%.

Other popular metals have also grown synchronously with gold. Silver rose 0.5%, rising to $25.38. Copper added 1.5% and traded at $4.34. Platinum jumped 1.4%, reaching $1,090.60. The cost of palladium gained 1.9% and amounted to $2,704. 60.

Analysts note that the general optimism in the markets contributed to the upward movement of metals, while for gold, on the contrary, it is a deterrent factor. For this reason, the asset has been stalling in a very narrow price range for a long time.

This week, the boundaries of the corridor have narrowed even more. Now, gold is swinging sluggishly between the marks of $1,795 and $1,805. Asset prices show extremely low volatility. However, according to experts, this is a positive sign.

ActivTrades analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa says that the current consolidation gives gold an excellent opportunity to recover in the coming days, but on the condition that the US currency does not strengthen.

Meanwhile, this morning, the metal quotes remain apathetic and remain stable. Prices that have not shown a single dynamics since the beginning of the week, and under its curtain can not decide on the direction of movement.

At the time of preparation of the material, the value of the yellow asset has decreased insignificantly – by 0.05%. At the same time, bullion remained above the key level, falling to the level of $1,804.5.

Analysts are confident that next week, the apathy should be replaced by more intense traffic. The meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which is scheduled for July 27-28, will be able to stir up the quotes. Investors are waiting for new comments from the regulator on its monetary policy. Each meeting of the Federal Reserve has an impact on the dollar exchange rate, which is reflected in the value of the precious metal.