Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

August 24. Oil accelerates growth amid favorable demand forecasts

On Tuesday, oil prices continued to rise thanks to upbeat demand forecasts. During the day, Brent quotes rose to $70 per barrel. The price of WTI crude oil rose to $67.25 per barrel.

Demand forecasts are improving amid the suspension of production at one of the drilling rigs in Mexico and full US approval of the coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech.

On Sunday, a fire broke out on an oil platform off the coast of Mexico, as a result of which production was suspended in the amount of 421 thousand barrels per day, or about a quarter of the country's total production.

Additional support for the «black gold» is provided by the approval of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the use of the coronavirus vaccine for people over 16 years of age. Authorities hope the news will further boost vaccination adoption.

This week, oil market participants are awaiting data on fuel reserves in the United States. Analysts predict a decrease in oil and gasoline reserves, as well as an increase in distillate stocks.

August 26. Gold drops in anticipation of Jackson Hole symposium

Gold prices continued to decline for the third day in a row on the back of a strengthening dollar and rising US Treasury yields. The dollar index rose 0.1%, putting pressure on gold, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds held near a two-week high.

Investors are also awaiting tomorrow's symposium in Jackson Hole and possible signals about the curtailment of incentives during the speech of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell.

The current price of gold is $1,787 per ounce, palladium has fallen in price to $2,400 per ounce, silver has dropped to $23.67. The platinum price dropped to $987.65.

J. Powell will speak at the Fed's annual economic symposium on Friday. Market participants hope to receive more detailed information about the regulator's plans to roll back economic support measures. Many people do not realize this is possible, as the spread of the delta strain of coronavirus continues to cause concern.

August 27. Oil continues to rise as a storm approaches the Gulf of Mexico

At the end of the week, oil prices continue to rise amid an approaching storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Investors fear that major supply disruptions could reignite in the market as energy companies cut production in the Gulf ahead of the weekend.

As a result, Brent quotes rose to $71.50 per barrel on Friday, while WTI rose to $69 per barrel.

Additional support for the oil market is provided by the expectation that OPEC + may resist the increase in production, given that the new strain of the delta coronavirus has affected oil demand.

An important factor for the further dynamics of oil will be the results of today's speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve in Jackson Hole, since they will have a strong impact on the dollar rate. Market participants expect Jerome Powell to give signals regarding plans to cut the bond buying program in the 4th quarter.

September 1. Trump criticized cryptocurrencies again

Former US President Donald Trump in his speech on the air of Varney & Co said that investing in cryptocurrencies is a «potential disaster.» Trump also added that he is not a fan of cryptocurrencies, does not invest in bitcoins and calls for investments in the American currency.

According to the ex-president of the United States, investing in cryptocurrencies harms the dollar, since bitcoin generally looks more like a «scam», and the euphoria around this cryptocurrency weakens the dollar. Trump boldly reiterated that «the dollar should be the currency of this world.» However, as long as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain unregulated in the US financial system, they pose a threat to the US dollar and reduce its value. In addition, according to him, cryptocurrencies can be fake, and few people know what they are.

During his tenure as President of the United States, Trump has maintained both the weakness and the strength of the dollar. When the dollar weakened, it was more profitable and cheaper for foreign countries to buy American goods. Trump has also frequently accused China of deliberately undervaluing its currency, the renminbi, in order to reduce the cost of exports.

The head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler shared a slightly more positive view of the crypto market, who noted that he supports digital currencies, but believes that this industry should be within the framework of laws related to money laundering, tax compliance and investor protection.

September 2. Why is Bitcoin unable to overcome the $ 50K level?

The calm that was observed on Wall Street at the end of August also affected the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin stabilized below $50,000 after its rally. Recall that from January to mid-April, the most popular digital currency rose to $60 thousand, subsequently falling below $30 thousand.

The reason for the inactivity of bitcoin today can be called the fact that investors are switching to other currencies on the crypto market. In particular, according to CoinShares, in August, the inflow of funds to Ethereum funds amounted to $22.4 million, and the inflow to Cardano funds (which has a blockchain platform similar to Ethereum) amounted to $18.7 million. the growing popularity of non-fungible tokens (NFT). Basically, NFTs are digital assets similar to Bitcoin, with the only difference that each NFT is unique.

On the largest exchange NFT OpenSea, the volume of token trading over the past 30 days amounted to $3.5 billion, while until August, the total trading volume since its foundation in 2016 was about $1 billion.

Interest in NFT was also boosted by news that two large American companies, Visa Inc and Facebook Inc, have taken steps in this market. Visa acquired NFT under the name CryptoPunks, and Facebook said it is considering building services for NFT in its new digital wallet.

September 03. Oil price exceeds $73 due to hurricane disruptions

On Friday, crude oil prices rose above $ 73 a barrel. The reason for the growth was the message that it may take longer than anticipated to resolve disruptions in the operation of the energy complex in the Gulf of Mexico. About three quarters of offshore production is still not functioning.

The current Brent quotation is $ 73.15 per barrel, the price of WTI oil is $69.95.

Additional support to prices was provided by data on oil reserves in the United States. According to a report from the Ministry of Energy, over the past week, hydrocarbon reserves in the country decreased by 7.2 million barrels. The decline has been noted for the third week in a row.

Analysts note that petroleum product inventories are generally at their lowest for this period of the year since 2018, while refining capacity in Louisiana continues to slowly recover.

Moreover, yesterday, US President Joe Biden ordered Energy Secretary Jennifer Grenholm to use the strategic oil reserve to combat the surge in fuel prices in the country caused by Hurricane Ida.

September 06. The European market started the week with growth

On Monday, European stock indexes showed a rise on the background of an increase in industrial orders in Germany, as well as a disappointing employment report in the United States, which indicated a delay in tightening the Fed's monetary policy.

In particular, the DAX index in Germany rose to 15,900, the CAC 40 in France rose to 6,746, and the British FTSE 100 – to 7,191.

The positive sentiment was helped by the news that orders for German industrial goods unexpectedly increased by 3.4% month-on-month in July, reaching a maximum. Analysts had expected that the volume of orders would decrease by 1.0% compared to the previous month.

Also, investors are still «digesting» Friday's US employment report, which showed a much smaller increase in the number of vacancies in August than expected. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased at the lowest pace since January – by only 235 thousand, while analysts expected an increase of 750 thousand. The unemployment rate fell from 5.4% to 5.2%, as expected. These statistics delayed the timing of the reduction of the Fed's bond-buying program, while the US central bank is assessing the economic impact of rising Covid infections.

On Thursday, it is worth paying attention to the results of the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank, since it is expected that the regulator will discuss the issue of reducing incentives at the meeting. Recent reports indicate that inflation in the euro area has risen to a 10-year high (by 3%). And this may lead to a slowdown in the ECB's asset purchase program.

September 08. Aluminum reached the 13-year highs

The price of aluminum jumped to the highest in 13 years amid traders' concerns about possible disruptions to supplies from Guinea, the main producer of bauxite, after the coup in that country. An additional factor in the price increase is the restrictions in China related to the policy of reducing CO2 emissions.

Dow Jones reports that aluminum futures for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Wednesday rose to $2.798 per ton – the highest since 2008. The October aluminum contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached $3.416 per ton during the session.

Since the beginning of the year, aluminum has risen in price by almost 41% on the LME due to high demand for the metal in the world while reducing its production in China due to carbon restrictions. Aluminum showed the second best result among the main metals in London after tin.

September 13. The consequences of the hurricane continue to support oil prices

The price of oil continues to rise at the beginning of a new trading week amid investor concerns about limited production in the United States due to Hurricane Ida, as well as amid expectations of improved demand.

Brent crude futures rose to $73.65 per barrel, WTI – by 0.7% to $70.47 per barrel. Both contracts touched their maximum values since September 3 during the session.

Recall that as a result of Hurricane Ida, about three quarters of production on the shelf of the Gulf of Mexico has been stopped since the end of August. This is about 1.4 million barrels per day, which is approximately equal to the entire production of Nigeria, an OPEC member. Additional support for oil prices was provided by the fact that more and more refineries in Louisiana are resuming operations, and this increased the demand for crude oil.

This week, we should pay attention to the likelihood of a revision of the forecast of oil demand by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The fact is that the increase in the incidence of coronavirus may force OPEC to revise its demand forecast for 2022 downward.

September 10. Experts predict an early recovery of the cryptocurrency market

Analysts note that Bitcoin and Ethereum can win back the fall within ten days and grow to $48500 and $3630, respectively, despite the ongoing investigation of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the problems in El Salvador. The current price of Bitcoin is $46180, Ether – $3407.

According to forecasts, by the end of next week, the price of Ether may reach $3630, and the current price can be considered quite acceptable for purchase. In this case, the stop order should be placed at the level of $3250. Analysts emphasize that significant support levels have been reached in Ethereum, from which a new growing trend will be formed further.

The decline in the cryptocurrency market observed this week was caused by several factors. Bitcoin sank by more than 10% after El Salvador declared this coin an official means of payment. This led to the fact that rating agencies lowered the country's already low credit rating, and pointed to increased risks in the insurance industry of El Salvador. Moreover, the World Bank supported the position of rating agencies and refused to provide support to El Salvador in the field of using cryptocurrencies.

Another factor of pressure on the crypto market was the SEC investigation against one of the largest decentralized crypto exchanges, Uniswap. In addition, the SEC threatened the American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase with a lawsuit due to the launch of the Lend lending service by the platform.

September 15. Gold weakly declines amid uncertainty over Fed stimulus

The price of gold on Wednesday demonstrates a moderate decline from the level of $1.808 per ounce. The current quotation of the precious metal is $1.795.

The asset was weighed down by data on slowing inflation in the US, which increased uncertainty about the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus roll-off. It became known yesterday that consumer prices in the United States, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% in August, at the lowest rate since February. Analysts had expected the figure to rise by 0.3%.

Now the market's attention will be directed to the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will take place next week. Investors are waiting for signals regarding plans to curtail incentives.

Silver fell 0.06% to $23.81 an ounce. Palladium, on the other hand, rose 2.41% to $2,026.16 an ounce. The platinum price dropped to $943.44.