Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

September 16. JPMorgan: S&P 500 to grow another 6% by the end of the year

Despite the fact that some Wall Street firms are lowering their forecasts for stock market growth by the end of the year, JP Morgan, on the contrary, raised expectations for the S&P 500 from 4,600 to 4,700 (which is 6% more than the current values) and maintained a «bullish» stock forecast. The current index value is 4480. In 2022, the index value is expected to reach 5000 points.

According to the investment bank, the pace of economic growth has slowed due to concerns about a new delta strain of coronavirus, which is temporary.

JP Morgan experts explain their optimism that Covid is beginning to weaken in the world, and the upward momentum in the economy will continue in 2022, as enterprises will begin to restore depleted reserves and increase capital expenditures after historically low levels.

At the same time, other large organizations such as RBC, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs suggest that it is necessary to prepare for the correction of the S&P 500 index to 10%. And the biggest risk for the market by the end of the year may be the threat of an increase in corporate taxes. However, JP Morgan also disagrees with this – the bank's experts believe that a strong change in the income tax rate is unlikely.

September 20. Gold is getting more expensive as a protective asset

The price of gold is rising on Monday evening against the background of sales on world markets and investors' departure from risk to safe-haven assets. The current price of gold is $1,765 per ounce.

Today, there is a sell – off on the world stock and commodity markets: the Asia-Pacific markets fell by 2%, European stock indices are declining by 2%, American ones-by 1.5%. At the same time, oil is getting cheaper by 1%.

Moreover, the rejection of risk and the subsequent withdrawal of investors into protective assets also supported gold. Market participants do not want to take risks before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System.

The Fed meeting will be held on Wednesday. The regulator will publish a decision on the rate, asset repurchase, and also provide macroeconomic forecasts. Investors hope to receive signals about the future monetary policy of the regulator and about when the Federal Reserve will begin to curtail measures to support the economy.

September 21. Oil is getting more expensive amid several factors

On Tuesday, oil prices are showing growth, reaching a daily high at $75.17 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $74.65 per barrel, the price of WTI oil rose to the level of $70.92 (a maximum of $71.47 per barrel).

The main support for prices is provided by signals of a reduction in the supply of fuel in the United States. Utilities around the world are switching to fuel oil due to rising gas and coal prices (since production in the Gulf of Mexico has not yet fully recovered after Hurricane Ida), which will inevitably lead to a decrease in supply.

Market participants are also waiting for the results of the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve, at which the regulator may announce the start dates of monetary policy tightening. And this can reduce the attractiveness of such a risky asset as oil.

In addition, the market may see an increase in demand for oil after the US announced the lifting of the travel ban for vaccinated foreign travelers in early November.

September 22. IFO lowered the forecast of German GDP growth to 2.5%

The German Economic Institute IFO today announced a reduction in the growth forecast of Europe's largest economy for 2021, as disruptions in supply chains and a shortage of intermediate goods slow down the German recovery.

The IFO now believes that German gross domestic product growth will be 2.5% in 2021, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous forecast, and 5.1% next year, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous forecast.

Timo Wolmersheuser, chief economist at Ifo, noted that a confident economic recovery after the coronavirus crisis (which was initially expected in the summer) is being postponed. Industrial production is currently declining due to bottlenecks in the supply of important intermediate goods. At the same time, service providers are actively recovering from the crisis, Wolmersheuser added.

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September 23. Expert: The collapse of Evergrande will hit US stocks and real estate

Legendary investor and writer, author of the book «Rich Dad, Poor Dad» Robert Kiyosaki suggests that the default of China Evergrande Group will hit American stocks and the real estate market in the United States. The investor warns that the consequences will be disastrous for unprepared investors, and in order to survive the downturn, it is preferable to buy gold, silver and bitcoins.

Kiyosaki does not believe that Evergrande will be able to repay its loans worth about $305 billion, and the Chinese developer's real estate portfolio seems to him to be overvalued. Therefore, the collapse of the real estate market is inevitable, the investor believes, which will lead to a fall in the stock market, including in the United States.

Analysts are already comparing the possible default of Evergrande with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered the global crisis in 2008.

Today, the Chinese media wrote that local authorities in China were advised to prepare for the possible collapse of the developer. This suggests that Beijing does not intend to bail out the debt-laden developer and is preparing for any economic and social consequences. Almost immediately it became known that China Estates Holdings, the second largest shareholder of Evergrande, sold its stake in Evergrande in the amount of $32 million and plans to completely exit the holding.

Kiyosaki has been expecting a market collapse for quite some time. Back in June, he wrote on his Twitter account: «The biggest bubble in world history is getting bigger. The greatest collapse in the history of the world is coming.»

September 27. Apple and Tesla stopped production in China because of the energy crisis

The shortage of electricity in China, which arose against the background of limited coal supplies and stricter emission standards, stopped production at many factories, including at some Apple and Tesla enterprises.

According to local media, since last week, rationing for electricity consumption during peak hours has been introduced in many parts of northeast China. China, as the world's largest consumer of energy and a source of greenhouse gases, aims to bring carbon emissions to zero by 2060. And for this, in 2021, the Chinese authorities intend to reduce the energy intensity by about 3%.

It is reported that the provincial authorities have strengthened measures to limit emissions in recent months. And this decrease in energy supply affects producers in the key industrial centers of the eastern and southern coasts. About 15 Chinese companies and 30 Taiwanese companies have already announced that production was stopped due to capacity restrictions. The steel, aluminum and cement industries suffered the most.

As a result, many analysts have come to the conclusion that they should revise their forecasts for China's GDP for 2021. In particular, Nomura lowered its forecast for the third and fourth quarters to 4.7% and 3.0%, respectively, from 5.1% and 4.4%, and the annual forecast-to 7.7% from 8.2%.

October 01. OPEC+ is considering options for a greater increase in production

On Monday, October 4, the leaders of OPEC+ countries will meet to discuss the oil production deal and the conditions for its possible revision. The organization is considering the possibility of increasing the volume of production more than stipulated by the current agreement. Since July, the countries adhere to the volume of 400 thousand barrels per day.

Some sources claim that the increase in production may even amount to 800 thousand barrels per day for one month, after which production volumes will return to previous indicators. The next month in which an increase may occur is November, since October oil production volumes have already been agreed at the last OPEC+ meeting.

In anticipation of the OPEC+ meeting, oil prices began to decline. The current Brent quote is $77.83 per barrel, although more recently the cost of a barrel of oil fluctuated around $80 per barrel. WTI oil prices also declined to $74.50.

September 30. The energy crisis in China has hit the industrial sector

Amid the protracted energy crisis in China, small companies have begun to switch to diesel power generators or even stop working. In this regard, the Coal Industry Association expresses concerns about stocks ahead of winter.

Analysts note that China is facing the most severe energy crisis in recent years – power outages have affected a significant part of the country. Problems with electricity supplies caused by a jump in coal prices have been going on for the second week.

As you know, coal is the main source of electricity in China, and today its cost is kept near a record level amid a shortage of supply and strong demand from industrialists. Owners of many companies report that they are suffering unprecedented losses, and the official Purchasing managers Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector has fallen below 50 points for the first time since February 2020.

The Chinese Coal Industry Association warns of a low level of coal reserves at power plants and a possible shortage in the winter months, and asks companies to make every effort to increase supplies.

September 29. Analysts suggest that Evergrande may become another «black swan»

Analysts note that, despite the fact that it is almost impossible to predict the appearance of «black swans» (since these are unexpected anomalous events), this time China and the default of the developer Evergrande may become the source of the global economic shock.

One of the most striking examples of the «black swan» is the coronavirus that came from China, the pandemic of which could not have been predicted. This time, the Celestial Empire may again become the birthplace of the next «black swan».

However, there are those who do not share this point of view. For example, Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University, who predicted the global economic crisis in 2008, said that he did not see any «black swans» in the short term. At the same time, the professor does not exclude the presence of some financial risks that may still cause a global crisis in the next 3-5 years.

According to Roubini, the soft monetary and fiscal policies of developed countries have led to the inflation of bubbles in financial markets. As the most obvious example, the professor cites cryptocurrencies, and the explosion of such a bubble may well cause turmoil in global markets.

There is also an opinion that the possible default of one of the largest Chinese developers Evergrande will only lead to a decline in demand for commodities and undermine the confidence of international investors in the Chinese real estate market.

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October 4. Oil reacted with growth to the results of the OPEC+ meeting

Oil rose by more than 3%, exceeding the $81 per barrel mark for the first time since 2018. The market was supported by the results of the meeting of the OPEC+ ministerial committee, at which it was decided to maintain the current parameters of the production reduction deal.

The current Brent oil quote is $81.56 per barrel, the daily maximum was marked at $81.98. WTI crude oil rose to $78.36 per barrel.

According to the current plan, OPEC+ countries will adhere to previously accepted agreements, and in November production will be increased by 400 thousand b/s. The ministers also extended the terms of compensation for the production volumes that were not reduced by the countries until the end of December 2021. Russia will be able to produce 9.913 million b/s from November.

The next meeting of the committee is scheduled for November 4. According to the forecasts of the organization, in 2022, the demand for oil will increase by 4.2 million b/d, which is higher than the previous estimate by 0.9 million b/d. Global oil demand in 2022 may reach 100.8 million b/d against 96.7 million b/d in 2021. At the same time, the supply will continue to grow.

October 5. Bitcoin has again overcome the level of $50 thousand

The cost of bitcoin on Tuesday exceeded the $50 thousand mark for the first time since September 7. Over the past day, the price has increased by 5%, and over the week – by 18%. The current quote of the most popular cryptocurrency is $49,785.

During September, bitcoin tried several times to gain a foothold above the $50 thousand mark. On September 7, the cryptocurrency fell amid a large sale of shares of companies related to cryptocurrency and blockchain. During the month, bitcoin continued to fall, reaching a low of $40,596 dollars on September 21.

And now the «bullish» sentiment has returned to the cryptocurrency market. Analysts believe that the trend change is due to the growing investor confidence in this asset class and more flexible statements by the Fed and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Recall that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his recent speech to Congress, said that the regulator does not intend to ban cryptocurrencies.

The growth of bitcoin has pulled the rest of the crypto market along with it. Many cryptocurrencies have also risen in price today. Moreover, there was an increase in the shares of cryptocurrency companies such as Marathon Digital Holdings, Riot Blockchain and Bit Digital.