Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

October 27. Gold is stable in the middle of the week

On Wednesday evening, the price of gold fluctuates slightly near $1,795 per ounce. Market participants monitor the general dynamics of trading, evaluate the financial reports of companies and expect the results of the meetings of the ECB and the US Federal Reserve.

Analysts note that a slight decline in precious metal quotations could be caused by an increase in appetite for risky assets against the background of the publication of strong financial reports of companies. Despite all the risks and the unstable economic situation in the world, many companies have demonstrated an increase in reporting indicators.

In addition, investors are waiting for the decisions of central banks on further monetary policy, which will inevitably affect the dollar and gold exchange rates. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will hold a meeting, and on November 3, the results of its meeting will be announced by the US Federal Reserve System. It is expected that regulators will begin to curtail support measures.

Of considerable interest are the data on US GDP, which will be published on Thursday. Analysts expect growth in the third quarter to slow to 2.7% year-on-year after an increase of 6.7% in the second quarter.

October 28. Annual inflation in Germany accelerated to its highest in 28 years

According to preliminary estimates by the German Federal Bureau of Statistics (Destatis), inflation in the country in October in annual terms accelerated to 4.5% from 4.1% a month earlier. This growth has been a record since October 1993. On a monthly basis, consumer prices in Germany rose 0.5%.

Monthly inflation rates were in line with analysts' forecasts, but annual inflation was expected at 4.4%.

At the same time, consumer prices in the country according to EU standards (harmonized consumer price index) in October accelerated growth to 4.6% from 4.1% on an annualized basis, and on a monthly basis – to 0.5% (from 0.3%). Analysts had forecast rates at 4.5% and 0.4%, respectively.

The department noted that there are a number of reasons for the high inflation rates observed since July 2021. Here is the basic effect of the price reduction in 2020, and a temporary reduction in VAT rates, as well as a sharp drop in prices for petroleum products.

November 01. Oil is recovering after the morning fall

On Monday, oil began the trading day with a decline in quotations to the level of $83 per barrel. Pressure on the asset was exerted by China's public statement that it intends to sell gasoline and diesel fuel stocks from its reserves in order to increase supply on the market and stabilize prices. Analysts note that Beijing has announced the release of reserves for the first time.

However, almost immediately, Brent quotes managed to recover to the level of $84.70 per barrel. WTI rose from a daily low of $82.75 to $84.19 per barrel.

At the same time, the oil market continues to be under pressure. Another driver of the decline in prices this week may be concerns that OPEC+ countries, following the results of the upcoming meeting on Thursday, may ease production restrictions and increase the supply of raw materials to world markets.

In addition to OPEC+, the US Federal Reserve will also hold a meeting this week, which may also have a significant impact on the dynamics of the value of «black gold».

October 29. Bill Gates: Abandoning nuclear power could lead to problems with energy supply

Microsoft founder Bill Gates said that abandoning nuclear power could lead to serious problems with electricity supply, for example, to an increase in electricity prices and difficulties with its supply.

In his interview, Gates noted: «Shutting down nuclear reactors will make it difficult to ensure reliable electricity supplies and favorable prices.» Speaking about the transition to renewable energy sources, he also said that no solution can be ruled out until the costs and reliability are checked.

The head of Microsoft is concerned about whether there will be a new generation of nuclear power plants that will be better in terms of costs, safety and disposal. According to Gates, he is now financing an enterprise that is building a new, fourth-generation nuclear reactor.

At the same time, Bill Gates spoke negatively about the construction of gas power plants in Europe. In his opinion, gas is not a real transition technology. At the same time, Gates stressed that the world will continue to consume a lot of natural gas until emissions of harmful substances fall to zero.

November 03. The gas price in Europe jumped after Gazprom's decision

Gazprom announced that it had not booked additional capacity for transit through the gas transportation system of Ukraine in the first and third quarters of 2022. After this news, gas prices in Europe jumped by more than 4% to $814 per thousand cubic meters. Gazprom also did not book additional capacities through the gas pipeline through Poland.

On November 1, the daily transit of Russian gas through Ukraine fell by more than a third compared to the level of October 1. Ukraine reported that the volume of pumping decreased by 34%, to 57 million cubic meters per day. In total, Gazprom pays for transit capacities of 109 million cubic meters.

Earlier in October, the cost of gas in Europe fell by more than 10% after Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed Gazprom to start planned work on pumping gas into European storage facilities. The head of the energy company Alexey Miller said that Gazprom is ready to start additional supplies to Europe after November 8, when the storage facilities in Russia will be filled.

November 9. Bitcoin has updated the historical maximum twice a day

Over the past day, bitcoin has reached maximum values twice, rising first to $67 thousand, and then to $68440. The current price of the cryptocurrency is $68 thousand per coin.

Analysts believe that such growth is not the limit and further increase is possible. Some even expect the price to rise to $98 thousand by the end of November. Experts explain the current rise partly by fundamental factors.

As you know, a bill on infrastructure support for the economy for more than a trillion dollars was passed in the United States. This implies another infusion of money into the country's economy, some of which will be directed to the cryptocurrency market.

If we talk about the long term, there is an opinion that the demand for bitcoin will grow, and the supply will fall. On the horizon of 10 years, it will be possible to see a price increase 10 times higher than the current figures. At the same time, a correction in the near future is not excluded, with a decrease in the price to the level of $ 30 thousand.

November 8. The oil market in the green zone at the beginning of a new trading week

On Monday, the price of Brent rose to the level of $84 per barrel. The current value of the asset is $83.42.

The «black gold» was supported by the news that the Saudi state oil company Saudi Aramco in December intends to raise prices for all grades of oil for buyers from Asia, the United States, Northwestern Europe and the Mediterranean.

In particular, the price of oil supplied to Asia will be raised by $1.1-2.8 per barrel, in the United States – by $0.5 per barrel, for the countries of Northwestern Europe, the increase will be $1-3.3 per barrel, and for the Mediterranean states – $1.1-3 per barrel.

Such a decision was prompted by assumptions that demand would remain strong, as OPEC countries and other major oil exporters would continue to restrain supply.

Recall that last week OPEC+ decided to continue to adhere to the plan to increase oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day, despite calls from many countries to increase production.

November 11. Oil continued to decline after inflation-induced drop

Oil prices continued to decline on Thursday, reaching the level of $82.10 per barrel. The drop in quotations began yesterday, after the release of inflation data in the United States.

According to recent statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States in October increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Analysts had forecast an increase of 5.8%. Such price growth has become the fastest in the last 30 years. The US dollar reacted with a strengthening amid expectations that the White House and the Federal Reserve will take measures to curb inflation. And this is a negative factor for oil prices.

WTI oil quotes are also declining, today's minimum was fixed at $80.22 per barrel.

The statistics on crude oil reserves in the United States had an additional impact on the dynamics of the oil market. According to the Ministry of Energy, reserves last week increased by 1 million barrels to 435.1 million barrels. Gasoline reserves decreased by 1.56 million barrels, to 212.7 million barrels, distillates – by 2.61 million barrels, to 124.51 million barrels.

November 10. US consumer prices in October increased by 6.2%

According to recent statistics, consumer prices in the United States in October rose more than forecasts suggested. This led to the highest annual increase in inflation since 1990.

Thus, inflation in the United States in October amounted to 0.9% on a monthly basis, while analysts predicted growth of 0.6%. Experts also note that inflation may remain high next year against the background of global supply chain problems.

In annual terms, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 6.2% against the forecast of growth of 5.8%.

Excluding food and energy prices, consumer prices rose by 0.6%, with a growth forecast of only 0.4%. On an annualized basis, the base index grew by 4.6%, the forecast is an increase of 4.3%.

Meanwhile, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits came out: it fell to 267 thousand, while analysts assumed the figure at the level of 265 thousand. Such figures were the lowest since mid-March 2020.

November 15. Slowing GDP growth in China could lead to a global financial crisis

The US authorities continue to monitor the development of the real estate crisis in China caused by the default of the developer China Evergrande Group. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the consequences of the debt crisis in China and the slowdown in the country's economic growth could trigger a global financial crisis.

Yellen also noted that real estate is a very important sector of the Chinese economy, which accounts for about 30% of demand. And the contraction of the Chinese economy will hit many countries with trade ties with China.

It is worth noting that not only China Evergrande is struggling with a high level of debt and a potential default, but the size of the debt itself is impressive – $300 billion. To date, the company has managed to pay several overdue coupons on time, preventing default, but the situation continues to be tense.

November 12. The oil market is stable after the release of the monthly OPEC report

Oil at the end of the week continues to fluctuate in the range of $81.40-82.50 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $82.20.

The situation in the United States remains in the focus of attention of market participants, where pressure on President Joe Biden is increasing. Many, including representatives of his own party, expect the new president to solve the problem of high prices, since the inflation rate in the United States was the highest in the last 30 years.

In addition, investors are analyzing OPEC's monthly report, which contained unfavorable estimates for the oil market: the organization slightly lowered forecasts for oil demand growth in 2021 and 2022. First of all, the OPEC secretariat lowered its estimate of global oil demand in 2021 in North America and India, despite the fact that the recent figures of these countries significantly exceeded the level of a year ago.

At the same time, OPEC expects an increase in demand in China, which also came as a surprise to market participants, given the restrictions on flights in force in the country against the background of the growing number of infected Covid–19.

The non-OPEC supply forecast for 2021 has not been changed, and for 2022 it has been slightly reduced.

November 17. The oil market remains highly volatile

For several days now, the oil market has been showing increased volatility, and the quotes of Brent and WTI fluctuate within wide ranges. If yesterday a barrel of Brent was worth about $83 per barrel, then today the quotes have dropped to $81.50.

Pressure on the «black gold» was exerted by the news that the administration of US President Joe Biden, considering the possibility of selling oil from the strategic reserve, is trying to achieve the same from China. At talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Biden also urged him to sell oil from the country's reserves, but China is not yet ready for such measures.

The current Brent quote is $81.90 per barrel, WTI oil is trading at $79.20 per barrel. Analysts note that if China agrees to release oil in order to lower prices on the market, it will be possible to talk about the beginning of a «bearish» trend.

Additional pressure on oil prices was exerted by yesterday's data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which hydrocarbon reserves in the United States increased by 655 thousand barrels. A week earlier, inventories fell by 2.485 million barrels. Today, the US Department of Energy will present similar data. Analysts predict an average weekly decline in oil reserves by 2.5 million barrels, gasoline – by 100 thousand barrels, distillates – by 1.3 million barrels.

November 16. The Turkish currency has updated the anti-record again

On Tuesday, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira paired with the US dollar again updated the historical minimum amid expectations of another reduction in the discount rate by the country's Central Bank.

The current quote of the USD/TRY pair is 10.28 lira per dollar, which has become a new anti-record.

At the end of October, the Central Bank of Turkey decided to reduce the discount rate from 18% to 16% against the background of a record fall in the Turkish lira. After that, the national currency accelerated the decline. On Thursday, the Turkish regulator intends to lower the interest rate again.

Recall that the lira began to fall sharply in mid-October, after the news that three high-ranking officials of the Central Bank, including two deputy heads of the regulator, were dismissed by decree of President Tayyip Erdogan. As you know, they voted against reducing the interest rate at a meeting in September. Erdogan is in favor of lowering the rate, arguing that the increase in inflation is due to high interest rates.

November 18. Analysts named the factors exerting pressure on the oil market

Yesterday ended with a decline in oil prices under the psychological level of $80 per barrel. What was the reason for this impressive fall?

The weakening of the oil market was recorded even despite the positive data on oil and petroleum products reserves in the United States. Yesterday, a report from the EIA was published, showing a decrease in oil reserves by 2.1 million barrels, which turned out to be better than forecasts for a decrease of 1.4 million barrels. Production decreased from 11.5 to 11.4 million b/d, net imports fell by 0.5 million b/d.

Oil sales accelerated after reports emerged that the United States is negotiating with other major global consumers, including China, India and Japan, to release oil reserves to compensate for market shortages. Back in early November, Washington criticized the slow pace of OPEC+ production growth, declaring its intention to use all tools to reduce energy prices.

At the same time, an increasing number of market participants are skeptical about oil prices. Fresh forecasts from the EIA, IEA and OPEC indicate a surplus throughout 2022, starting from the first quarter. The OPEC Secretary General even said that a surplus could be observed as early as December. And with such forecasts, the news about the possible release of stocks finally «crushed» the quotes.

During Thursday's trading day, Brent still managed to recover to $80.85 per barrel, but you can forget about updating the highs (which market participants were sure of until recently), experts say.

November 22. Cryptocurrency Market | November 22 – 26

While the main cryptocurrency, bitcoin, is declining from the $58,000 level, some altcoins have started to grow and even reached new historical highs.

Bitcoin

Analyzing the dynamics of bitcoin, analysts predict that a «bearish» trend may take over the market in the near future. And if the cryptocurrency fails to stay near $57 thousand, then the further target of the decline will be the area of $52,500 – $50,000. In the worst case scenario (a breakthrough below the psychological support at the level of $ 50 thousand), you can expect the strongest sales, as traders will hurry to get out of their positions.

A more positive scenario assumes the recovery of bitcoin and the completion of the correction near $60 thousand, from where further growth can begin.

Last weekend, the President of El Salvador (the only country where bitcoin is recognized as legal tender) announced plans to build Bitcoin City – a city that will run exclusively on renewable geothermal energy sources. Residents of Bitcoin City will be exempt from paying all taxes (on income, property, capital gains, etc.), except VAT.

To finance the project, the authorities of El Salvador will issue tokenized 10-year bonds worth $1 billion.

Dogecoin

According to research, this cryptocurrency turned out to be the most popular by search queries in 23 US states. Analysts explain this popularity by the increased attention of Elon Musk to the asset. Recall that in May, Musk invited users to vote for the option of accepting payments in Dogecoin. Moreover, the billionaire said that in 2022 SpaceX will launch a Doge-1 satellite to the moon. The current Dogecoin quote is $0.22.

Shiba Inu

Another popular token is a clone of Dogecoin Shiba Inu. Cryptocurrency has outstripped many other crypto assets in popularity. Moreover, it became known that an anonymous investor last week acquired Shiba Inu for about $8.3 million.