Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

Sluggish Q1 Growth Breaks The Longest Growth Since 1991

The largest economy cooled down sharply in the first quarter despite the onset of flu and strikes, which occurs simultaneously for the region that affecting negatively good growth rates.
The annualized growth rate of Germany slowed down to 1.2% from 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the record of the Federal Statistics Office on Tuesday. Although, a sharp slowdown is already anticipated as it did not meet expectations on the U.S. growth rate of 2.3% in the same period.

However, various factors such as the strike of flu and numerous strikes on metals and engineering sectors, which causes slow down and most of the private sectors anticipate the recovery of economic activities in the second quarter or more.

Since 1991, Germany undergoes the longest growth recorded for the fifteenth consecutive quarter, according to the Statistics office. The momentum on investment spending has overshadowed the economic growth in the first three months of the year. On the other hand, exports slid down in the fourth quarter in the previous year.

A calm activity for the first quarter due to the more sickly staff at a higher level in ten years in February in reference to the BKK association of company health-insurance funds in Germany. A recorded of 500,000 workers in the metals and electrical engineering sectors contributed to the warning strikes in the latter weeks of January and early February, as stated by the IG Metall labor union of Germany. They were able to get a solid pay deal from the members.

However, economic indicators reflect that other European economies are also affected by the cold diseases and strikes. Later this Tuesday, the European Union's statistics agency will release the eurozone gross domestic product, which measures the economic output of goods and services. An increase was seen in the first quarter with 1.7% at an annualized rate, which is less than the 2.7% growth in the last quarter of 2017.

NZ Retail Sales Recorded Slowest Growth in Q1

The retail sales volume in New Zealand had expanded during Jan-Mar period but also recorded its slowest rate after five years, this further indicates the possible slackening of economic growth in the following years. On an annual basis, the official data showed that retail sales volume grew by 3 percent on Monday, which also imply a sharp decline versus the 5.4 percent rise in the previous quarter and the weakest growth from July-September 2012.

Sales gained 0.1 percent only based on a quarterly growth, which is lower than the rough estimate of 1 percent increase projected by the economists. Footwear and clothing had decreased by 5.1 percent while motor vehicles are down to 1.1 percent. The figures led to speed-bumps in the economy, whereas, many developed countries in the past years envied but it begins to deal with some headwinds due to weak immigration and expansion in the housing market.

The administration was able to secure strong economic growth because of immigration levels and stable price of dairy products at 3 percent per year despite the slight decline to 2.9 percent in 2017.

New Zealand's new Labour-led government took control in October and pledged to settle the housing crisis in the country along with some plans to improve property investment tax and officially ban foreigners to purchase residential properties in NZ. On Thursday, the expanded government investment declared in the annual budget would likely negate the sluggish consumption expenditure, with the 3.8 percent GDP growth outlook from the Treasury forecast in 2019. In addition to it, the GDP data for the first quarter is scheduled on June 21.

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EU Bloc Negotiates with Australia and New Zealand

The European bloc confirmed yesterday the start of free trade negotiations with Australia and New Zealand in order to establish new relations against the increasing trade tensions with the United States. The European Commission represents the 28 EU countries and negotiates about its plans and agreement towards the AU and NZ despite the warnings on opening the EU markets to generate farm products like beef and butter.

According to forecasts from EU, its exports towards Australia and New Zealand may expand by a third in case that trade agreements were finalized. Considering the fact that its trade partnership with the US was suspended by the presidential election victory of Donald Trump, the EU shifted its focus to build allies with open markets and struck agreements with countries on the same mind.

The bloc also deals with the result of steel and aluminum tariffs set by the US and the sanctions they would impose against Iran, which could lead to restriction of certain foreign businesses. The EU closed the deal with Japan, Mexico and Singapore and currently working with the Mercosur bloc of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.


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PBOC Increased the 28-repo rates by 2.85 percent

The People’s Bank of China adjusted their rates higher on the 28-day reverse bond repurchase agreements to keep with the pace on previous increases in tenors for the past two months.

According to the report from the online site of the PBOC, the 28-day reverse repos raised from 2.80 percent to 2.85 percent.

This move was enacted after the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank had also raised their rates on March 21 which signifies that Beijing is keeping up with the global market trends despite all of the financial risks in their homeland.

Moreover, the central bank added 30 billion yuan into money markets, particularly on their 7-day and 28-day rates on Monday, where the seven-day was set at 2.55 percent based on their given statements.

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EU’s Malmström Against Trump’s Tariffs

The European Union is trying to convince the countries Canada, Japan, and Mexico to work together against the aggressive trade policies imposed by US President Donald Trump, according to European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström today.

Malmström further stated that EU is reaching out various countries to form alliances and arrange a trade union who believe in international laws. Last week, the EU announced levying retaliatory tariffs up to €2.8 billion-worth of U.S. exports, which includes peanut butter and motorboats. While Canada, India, Japan, and Mexico will do the same thing. The European Commissioner described Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum as “not legitimate” The Swedish Commissioner also cautioned regarding the potential risk towards the global economy.

Both the United States and Europe set up the international policy and organizations to govern trade, but the US broke the rules that is why the EU has to take necessary action, Malmström said.


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U.S. Consumer Prices Rose to a Record High of 2.8 Percent Over Six Years

The consumer price of the U.S. increased slightly in May despite the slower growth of gasoline costs, implying moderate inflation in the economy.

The inflation report of the Labor Department was released prior to the two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. With the steady growth of inflation and anticipated tightening of the labor market, the Federal Reserve is motivated to raise interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday.

The CPI data rise by 0.2 percent in the previous month while the cost of food remains the same. A similar increase of CPI was seen in April. After a year in May, the CPI gained 2.8 percent, which has been the biggest growth since February 2012, following its increase of 2.5 percent in April.

Gaining 0.2 percent of the CPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, was due to the rebound of new motor vehicle prices and a pickup in the cost of health care, after rising to 0.1 percent in April. In turn, this raised the year-on-year gain of the core CPI by 2.2 percent from 2.1 percent in April. It was the largest growth since February last year.

After the weak reading last week, the annual inflation measures are adjusting higher. Both the CPI and core CPI growth in the previous month met the expectations of economists.

The Federal Reserve moves on a different inflation measure which is just lower than the two percent target. Economists have different perspectives on whether policymakers will implement more rate hikes in the statement following the rate decision on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the dollar is moving steadily against a basket of currency which is immediately after the data fell slightly than the U.S. Treasury yields, which is trading lower compared a slightly higher U.S. stock index futures.


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SNB Keeps an Ultra Loose Monetary Policies

The Swiss National Bank announced the decision to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy on Thursday and analysts expectations matched from the survey by Reuters giving a unanimous answer.

They reiterated the fragility or exchange rates after the strengthening of the Swiss franc in the past few weeks and began low this year.

At the same time, Chairman Thomas Jordan said that it would be too early to raise rates in Switzerland amid low inflation.

Another issue is the political uncertainty in Italy which will affect the eurozone in the future and it is important for the central bank to be heedful in this situation, according to an analyst.
Forty experts expect the SNB to maintain the target range to be 1.25 percent to minus 0.25 percent in three months on the offered rate of London Interbank, which has been the ongoing target for the past three-and-a-half years.

Also, they expect a negative interest rate of 0.75 percent deposits to be sustained where the commercial bank held a certain value as one of the important tools used by the bank.

Changes in the LIBOR target range is anticipated to happen soonest at the end of the year based on the UBS, while the median consensus deems to set at the end of next year.

Analyst of Credit Suisse initially thought the central bank to raise their rates as early as 2019 based on the economic strength of Switzerland, with a forecast growth of 2.2 percent this year.

The Global Head of Investment Strategy & Research at Credit Suisse Group AG, Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe said, “Our base case scenario is where the ECB is considering a first interest rate increase themselves by mid-2019, and the SNB could move a quarter before.” Connoting the reaffirmation of central bank’s decision. However, she added that these two would move together as they are ‘economically interlinked’.

Her expectation is a gradual increase of rates until it reached around 1.20 against the euro in a year.

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France’s Economic Growth Sharp Decline in 2018

The economy of France dropped from 2.3 percent to 1.7 percent this year, according to the forecast of National statistics, which is another financial problem of President Emmanuel Macron in reducing costs of the government.

Macron’s administration aims to reduce spending and maintain the deficit targets of the European Union with 2.0 percent target growth for 2018.

Growth has been steady and there are no particular concerns, remarked by Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Monday.

However, statistics agency through that the government would fail to meet the target as it would be pulled lower by a strong euro and increasing oil prices as some of the influential factors.

Gross Domestic Product increased by 0.3 percent in the second quarter, higher than the previous quarter’s rate of 0.2 percent. Further increased by 0.4 percent in both the remaining two factors in twelve months with 1.7 percent.

The Central bank of France revised lower their target growth of 1.8 percent in a year, following a bright year in 2017. It has changed as if covered by clouds in France and the eurozone as described by the head of Insee's economic outlook division Frederic Tallet.

This includes external factors over which the nation has less control such as global trade war, higher costs of oil prices, a strong euro, as well as, political uncertainties in Europe, notwithstanding the new far right-eurosceptic coalition in power in Italy.

Moreover, domestic concerns including sluggish household consumption and nearly three months of unabating train strikes that will likely bring down the second-quarter growth by 0.1 percentage points.

The forecast says that the corporate investment will slow down from 4.4 percent to 3.1 percent over the year, while household investment would decline from 5.6 percent in 2017 to 1.6 percent.

On a brighter side, good progress was seen on the trade and unemployment concerns. Unemployment will only decline slightly which is currently twice the value of Germany or Britain. The forecast rate is 8.8 percent at the end of the year from 9.0 9.0 percent at the end of last year.

A slow start of exports in 2018 is expected to change in the second quarter with the help of large demand in the aviation and shipbuilding sectors, according to the agency. On the other hand, households will gain from the reduction in both of the residency and payroll taxes.

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July 21. India intends to store crude oil in the US


Authorities have announced that the country plans to store part of its crude oil reserves in the United States.


The government notes that India needs new strategic oil reserves of its own, but building them could take several years and huge financial resources.


The way out of the situation was the opportunity to rent American strategic storage facilities, moreover, that this would not entail large expenses. The oil that will be stored in the United States can be used by New Delhi both for its own needs and for sale on the world market. However, if oil prices fall during storage, India will suffer losses.

July 22. US exchanges open lower on fears of conflict escalation with China


At the auction on Wednesday, American stock indices generally show a decline, reacting to the likelihood of aggravation of relations between the US and China.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 0.13% to 26805.38 points, while the S&P 500 broad market index fell 0.03% to 3256.26 points. At the same time, the NASDAQ index of high-tech companies rose by 0.28%, to 10709.84 points. The index was supported by expectations of financial statements for the last quarter of such American companies as Microsoft and Tesla included in the index. Since the beginning of the year, Tesla shares have risen in price by 3.7 times, and Microsoft – by 32%.


Investors drew attention to the news around the relationship between the United States and China. It became known that Washington ordered the closure of the PRC Consulate General in Houston in order to protect the intellectual property and personal information of Americans. In response, China is considering the likelihood of closing the US consulate in Wuhan.