Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

March 14. Oil started to decline at the beginning of a new trading week

On Monday, the price of oil continued the decline, which began last week: the current Brent quote is $107.34 per barrel. Although more recently the price rose to the level of $ 130 per barrel. WTI quotes dropped to $102.82 per barrel (the recent high is $125.80). In total, at the end of the week, Brent fell by 5%, WTI – by 6%.

Oil market participants continue to closely monitor the situation around Ukraine. The President of the country, Vladimir Zelensky, said that negotiations between representatives of the delegations of Russia and Ukraine continue every day in a video format. Zelensky noted that the main task of the delegations is to organize a future meeting of the presidents of the conflicting countries.

Another factor influencing the dynamics of oil prices is the unclear prospect of the return of Iranian oil to the world market. Last week, Russia demanded from the United States legally formalized guarantees that Western sanctions would not hinder full-fledged trade, economic and investment cooperation between Moscow and Tehran in the event of the restoration of the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program (JCPOA).

In response, the United States stated that it did not consider it possible to negotiate exceptions to sanctions against the Russian Federation concerning its trade with Iran in order to preserve the JCPOA.

March 15. China's digital yuan may challenge the dollar

China is currently making great strides in implementing its central bank's national digital currency. Experts note that in 5-10 years, the Chinese digital yuan may well challenge the dominance of the dollar as the preferred currency in international trade settlements.

According to many analysts, the desire of world countries for alternative payment systems is mainly due to their desire to reduce the current (almost 100%) dependence on the US dollar. It is quite possible that in the future this dependence on the dollar will decrease to 80-85%.

In the United States, they are also thinking about introducing a digital dollar, but the United States will need about 5 more years just to plan and test a potential digital currency. At the same time, China has been preparing for the use of the digital yuan since 2014. It is obvious that at the moment the Celestial Empire occupies a leading place among all countries of the world and has outstripped all available financial technologies by a decade.

However, experts doubt that Beijing will use its «newborn» currency to save Russia under sanctions, despite some support from China in the Ukrainian conflict. Ultimately, China intends to achieve widespread recognition of the digital yuan, and turning it into a means against sanctions in the current conditions will not help in achieving this goal.

March 16. Economist named three signs of the end of dollar dominance

Economist Henrik Müller said that the US dollar may lose its status as the world's main currency. Doubts about the happy future of the US dollar are caused by several factors at once. Let's consider the main ones.

First, inflation can seriously damage international confidence in the dollar and shake investor confidence in the value of the US currency. Müller stressed that the current inflation in the United States is at the level of 8% (and this is not the limit), and the further development of the situation depends on the actions of the Federal Reserve System.

Anti-Russian sanctions may also have a negative impact on the dollar. To date, the most serious measure against Russia is the freezing of Moscow's foreign exchange reserves in other central banks. Up to this point, such a step had never been taken in this form before. And if fears spread that Washington may confiscate foreign currency assets of other countries at any moment, the dollar may come under extreme pressure.

And the situation in Ukraine itself does not bode well for the dollar in the long term. As events unfold, the balance of forces in the financial market is changing – along with the global financial institutions of the United States, new blocs from sovereign countries with fragmented markets appear and strengthen their influence.

March 17. Oil remains close to $100 per barrel

The oil market has experienced a real shock in recent weeks: prices rose at the moment to the level of $130 per barrel and fell to a local minimum near $97 per barrel. The current quote of Brent is $100.23, the cost of WTI oil is at $96.90.

Investors continue to monitor the situation around Ukraine, as well as news from China, where a new outbreak of Covid-19 has been recorded.

Moreover, of interest was the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which Russia may reduce oil production in April by 3 million b/d against the backdrop of sanctions and refusals of oil buyers from abroad. And this, in turn, could cause a global oil supply shock.

It is worth noting that among all the OPEC+ countries, only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sufficient spare capacity that could compensate for the reduction in supplies from Russia. In this regard, some countries are proposing to increase OPEC oil production in order to contain price increases.

Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeiba noted that market volatility is already very high, and the huge risk of further supply cuts could push volatility to new levels. Moreover, the market is very vulnerable to the deterioration of the situation around Ukraine.

March 18. India has increased the import of Russian oil by 4 times

Analysts note that Russian oil exports to India increased fourfold in March, which indicates a redistribution of global energy flows after the situation around Ukraine.

India, which is the third largest country in the world in terms of energy consumption, bought several batches of oil at once, as buyers from Europe refused Russia's resources due to sanctions. In particular, the Russian Federation exported 360 thousand barrels per day to India in March, which is almost 4 times more than last year.

The United States reacted negatively to such actions: White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said that India could be on the verge of a historical past if it buys Russian oil. At the same time, Psaki admitted that these purchases would not violate US sanctions.

Last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, during a telephone conversation with Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, discussed further cooperation and joint areas of work in the fuel and energy sector. At the moment, Russian exports of oil and petroleum products to India have approached $1 billion, and representatives of the countries hope for an effective increase in this indicator.

The Indian authorities said they are developing a mechanism for buying and selling raw materials in rupees and rubles, which will significantly facilitate trade after Western restrictions on international currency transfers to and from Russia.

March 21. Brent crude oil rose to $115 per barrel

On Monday, oil prices accelerated their growth after a decline at the end of last week and reached the level of $115 per barrel. The cost of raw materials is rising against the background of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as well as increasing tensions in the Middle East.

Today, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that oil prices could jump to $300 per barrel if the West refuses Russian oil. As you know, the European Union is going to impose an embargo on oil from Russia in the near future. However, it is worth noting that today Russia is the largest supplier of oil to Europe, which consumes about 500 million tons of oil, of which about 150 million tons, or 30%, are accounted for by Russian products. The country also supplies another 80 million tons of petroleum products to the EU.

Novak noted that it is absolutely logical to expect that the rejection of Russian oil will lead to disastrous consequences for the world market. At the same time, it is impossible to replace the volume of Russian oil on the European market quickly, and it will probably take more than one year. In such a scenario, European consumers will suffer, first of all: gasoline, heating and electricity will significantly rise in price.

News from the Middle East had an additional impact on the market today. There, the Yemeni Houthis attacked several facilities in Saudi Arabia, including the fuel depot of the state oil company Saudi Aramco.

The focus is also on the situation in China, where another jump in the incidence of Covid-19 was noted. Investors are trying to assess whether this news will affect the volume of oil demand.

March 22. Xiaomi net profit collapsed by 72% in the IV quarter

Chinese electronics manufacturer Xiaomi Corp sharply cut its fourth-quarter net profit due to massive write-offs, while the company's revenue, on the contrary, increased.

According to the company's press release, last quarter's net profit fell to 2.44 billion yuan ($383.9 million), compared with 8.8 billion yuan in the same period a year earlier. The drop was driven by 3.14 billion yuan of investment write-offs.

Meanwhile, the company's revenue increased by 21% year-on-year to 85.58 billion yuan. The increase in revenue was due to an increase in sales in physical terms and an increase in selling prices.

It is also noted that according to the results of all 2021, Xiaomi increased its revenue by 33.5% to 328.31 billion yuan. At the same time, net profit decreased by 5.1% and amounted to 19.28 billion yuan. Revenue from overseas operations last year rose 33.7% to 163.6 billion yuan, accounting for 49.8% of Xiaomi's total revenue.

For the entire past year, the company sold 190.3 million phones, which is 30% higher than in 2020. Overall, Xiaomi ranked third in the list of leading smartphone manufacturers in the world in 2021 with a market share of 14.1%.

March 23. Annual inflation in the UK has reached its highest since 1992

According to the report of the National Statistical Service of the United Kingdom, the consumer price index in February in the UK showed an increase of 6.2% compared with 5.5% in the previous month. This was the highest figure in the last 30 years. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.8% after falling by 0.1% in January.

Analysts expected annual inflation to accelerate to 5.9%, and monthly consumer prices were expected to rise by 0.6%.

At the same time, the CPIH index (inflation taking into account homeowners' expenses for housing maintenance) was 5.5% after 4.9% a month earlier. In February, prices for this index increased by 0.7%.

Analysts believe that the growth of the consumer price index in Britain may even be above 10%, given the continuing rise in gasoline prices in the country due to anti-Russian sanctions imposed as a result of the events in Ukraine. Last week, amid increasing geopolitical tensions in the world, the Bank of England raised its base interest rate to 0.75% from 0.5% for the second time since February. Then the regulator warned that inflation could reach 8% in April.

March 24. Serbia called the transfer of payments for gas in rubles a serious problem

Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the transition to settlement in rubles when paying for Russian gas exports to unfriendly countries. He also instructed the Central Bank and the government to determine in a week the procedure for the purchase of rubles in the domestic market of the Russian Federation by buyers of Russian gas. In total, Russia currently exports gas worth about $10 billion a month.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, in response to these actions, said that the transfer of gas payments to rubles would entail many problems. Vucic noted that some consider Putin's decision ingenious in the context of geopolitics and the organization of opposition to the dollar along with the yuan, but the Serbian president himself questioned its effectiveness and expediency.

Poland also does not agree with such a decision of the Russian authorities and does not see for itself the possibility of paying for gas in rubles. The head of the Polish gas company PGNiG, Pavel Majewski, said that the payment method has already been included in the contract with Russia for gas supplies, and Poland does not intend to change it. Germany also stated that the change of the settlement currency is the reason for the termination of the contract.

Vucic also noted that there is Bulgaria, which has explicitly stated its unwillingness to conduct settlements in rubles. The Serbian President stressed that it is this country that organizes the transit of Russian gas to Serbia and Hungary.

March 25. The US. Main news: stock market, macro statistics

The stock market of the United States is showing a certain upswing: support is provided by the position of NATO not to physically interfere in the geopolitical crisis, as well as the manifestation of allied solidarity within the alliance.

Additional optimism was brought by statements by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, that he expects 7 rate hikes by 25 basis points this year. At the same time, the representative of the Fed noted the likelihood of overdoing it on the issue of tightening monetary policy.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans expects a similar scenario with 3 more increases in 2023, but at the same time excludes the possibility of a 50 bp rate hike.

American macrostatistics turned out to be contradictory. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 28 thousand last week (to 187 thousand), which is the lowest value since 1969. Orders for durable goods decreased by 2.2% in February, and excluding defense orders – by 2.7%.

Business activity, on the contrary, shows growth already in March. According to preliminary estimates, the index of business activity in the service sector in February increased from 56.5% to 58.9%, and the manufacturing PMI increased from 57.3% to 58.5%.

From corporate news, it is worth highlighting the growth of Uber shares by 4.96% after the announcement that the company has agreed to subscribe all taxi drivers in New York to its app. All sectors of the S&P 500 showed growth. The strongest were communications (+1.69%), information technology (+2.71%) and materials (+1.96%).

March 30. Inflation in Germany reached record 7,3%

According to a preliminary estimate by the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), annual inflation in the country accelerated from 5.1% in February to 7.3% in March.

A similar inflation rate was a record for the entire history of Destatis observations. Until that moment, the highest inflation rate was recorded in March-May 1992 – then the figure was 6.2%.

On a monthly basis, German consumer prices rose 2.5%. Analysts predicted annual inflation at 6.3%, and monthly – 1.6%.

At the same time, consumer prices in the country according to EU standards (harmonized consumer price index) accelerated growth over the year from 5.5% in February to 7.6% in March. And in March they grew from 0.9% to 2.5%. Analysts had expected figures at 6.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

At the same time, experts do not exclude the possibility that the rise in prices in Germany could reach 10% if the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine continues to gain momentum.

March 29. Saudi Arabia may contribute to a record rise in oil prices

Saudi Arabia's national oil company Aramco, which is the world's largest oil exporter, does not rule out the possibility of an increase in the price of its main grade of crude oil to a record level. And this is despite the fact that China – the main buyer of Saudi oil - is struggling with the Covid-19 outbreak.

According to the average price estimate of five oil refining and trading companies, Saudi Aramco may increase the official selling price of its Arab Light grade oil with shipment in May by $5 per barrel. This would increase the price difference with the Oman-Dubai reference grade to $9.95.

The company itself has not yet given any comments on this, since it usually publishes official prices in the first 5 days of the month.

Recall that the world price of oil jumped to the highest level since 2008 in this quarter after the start of the military special operation in Ukraine. The maximum was marked at $130 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $103.34, WTI oil is trading near $100 per barrel.

Analysts expect that Saudi Arabia's actions will inevitably lead to the resumption of growth in the oil market. In addition, a reduction in supplies from Russia by 1.5 million barrels per day will also have an impact on prices. At the same time, despite the current situation in the world and huge supply disruptions, OPEC+ members stated that they still do not see the need to adjust production plans.

April 1. Does Nord Stream-2 have a future?

Against the background of acute geopolitical tensions in Europe, the future of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline is now in great doubt, say energy analysts.

The 1,234 km (2,468 km) offshore gas pipeline was designed to double gas supplies between Russia and Germany. However, in November last year, the German energy regulator suspended the certification process of the gas pipeline, and in February, with the beginning of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, it froze it altogether.

Analysts note that the large-scale geopolitical crisis has put an end to any joint projects and business partnership between Russia and the West. And Nord Stream-2, worth $11 billion, became one of the first victims of anti-Russian sanctions.

Moreover, the European Union has stated that by the end of 2022 it is going to reduce the import of Russian gas by two–thirds, and by 2030 it is going to completely end dependence on Russian imports of fossil fuels. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the termination of gas exports to «unfriendly» countries if gas payments are not made in rubles. The main EU countries responded to this demand with a refusal.

Many analysts and politicians doubt the likelihood of the resumption of the gas pipeline. It is obvious that the future fate of the Nord Stream-2 will depend on how the Ukrainian crisis ends, and who will ultimately dictate the conditions.

There are assumptions that the Nord Stream-2 will be able to be used for the transportation of hydrogen in the future, and Russia will be a potential supplier. However, this method of using the gas pipeline will depend on the decision of Germany itself – whether it will eventually want to revive energy relations with Russia using next-generation fuel under the flag of decarbonization.

March 31. Oil declined sharply after a significant increase

On Thursday, oil prices showed a sharp decline after the publication of the weekly report on oil reserves in the United States. In addition, traders are waiting for Washington to announce measures to support American consumers amid rising energy prices.

Brent oil quotes fell from the level of $112 per barrel to $105.12 in just a few hours. By Thursday morning, the price had recovered somewhat to $107.22 per barrel. The cost of North American WTI oil decreased from $108 to $100.55 per barrel. The current WTI quote is $102.56.

Today, the White House is to present a package of measures aimed at reducing energy prices on the American market. The Biden administration is considering releasing approximately 1 million barrels of oil per day from U.S. strategic reserves within a few months to combat rising gasoline prices and supply shortages.

At the same time, analysts note that the rise in prices and other problems caused by the Ukrainian crisis are of a medium- and long-term nature, while the release of oil from strategic reserves is only a short-term solution.

Another factor influencing the oil market was yesterday's report from the US Department of Energy, according to which commercial oil reserves in the country fell by 3.45 million barrels per week. Experts expected a less significant decrease – by 2 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline reserves increased by 785,000 barrels and amounted to 238.83 million barrels, distillate reserves increased by 1.4 million barrels to 113.53 million barrels. Analysts predicted a decrease in gasoline stocks by 1.6 million barrels and a drop in distillate stocks by 1.5 million barrels.