Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

September 19. Bitcoin is aiming for 2020 lows

During Monday's trading, the bitcoin exchange rate dropped to $18,313 for the first time since the end of 2020. Pressure on the cryptocurrency is exerted by investors' withdrawal from risks before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System scheduled for Wednesday.

Most analysts expect that the US regulator will raise the base interest rate by 75 basis points for the third time in a row, or even by 100 bp at once.

The current quote of the BTC/USD pair is $18,756.90. Since the beginning of this year, bitcoin has fallen in price by 60% and is currently trading at the level of December 2020.

In the current conditions, risk appetite remains extremely weak, and the entire crypto market is showing a decline following the fall of stock markets. Additional pressure on the market is being exerted by signals that the administration of US President Joe Biden plans to tighten regulation of the cryptocurrency industry.

It's not just bitcoin that is falling today. The cost of the second most popular cryptocurrency, Ethereum, is also declining and is at its lowest level since July. The current price of ether is $1,280. Last week, an update of the cryptocurrency software, called The Merge, was carried out on the Ethereum network. This update has transferred the ether blockchain to a new algorithm, which will dramatically reduce electricity consumption during mining.

The selection of the existing broker must be able to be considered properly, this is done so that traders can be more leverage in getting maximum trading security and comfort like what I got from Tickmill.

September 22. The Bank of England raised the rate by 50 basis points to 2.25%​​​​​​​

Following the results of the September meeting, the Bank of England decided to raise the base interest rate from 1.75% to 2.25% per annum. This decision completely coincided with analysts' expectations.

Thus, the rate in the UK has reached its maximum since 2008. Experts note that the rate was raised following the results of the seventh meeting in a row, and the second meeting in a row the increase was 50 basis points.

All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously for the rate increase. Moreover, five were in favor of a 50 bps rise, three were in favor of a 75 bps increase, and one voted for a 25 bps increase.

In addition, the leadership of the British regulator voted to begin reducing the volume of government bonds on the balance sheet of the central bank. Now the volume of government bonds at the disposal of the Bank of England will be reduced by 80 billion pounds over the next 12 months and will reach 758 billion pounds.

September 23. Gold prices fell to a 2-year low​​​​​​​

According to trading data, gold prices have fallen to the lowest levels in more than two years. December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange COMEX collapsed from the level of 1.682 to 1.648.60 per ounce. The last time gold was traded at such levels was in April 2020.

Analysts note that the precious metal quotes are declining for the second week in a row after many central banks around the world raised interest rates to curb inflation.

In particular, the US Federal Reserve, as well as the Central Banks of Switzerland, Norway and the UK announced an increase in interest rates to curb price growth. And as we know, gold, which is traded in the US currency and does not bring any guaranteed interest income, usually has a negative correlation with the dollar exchange rate and rates.

Experts suggest that the negative dynamics in the gold market is very likely to continue due to further tightening of monetary policy by some major central banks. Because against the background of higher rates, the costs of owning gold are growing.

At the same time, fears of a recession and any escalation of the conflict in Eastern Europe may support the prices of the precious metal.

September 26. The yield of 10-year British government securities rose to the highest since 2008

Yields of British government securities are rising at the beginning of a new trading week: on Monday, the yield of ten-year bonds rose to 4.246% compared with 3.827% at the close of the market on September 23, which was the highest since 2008. The yield on two-year government securities rose to 4.418% from 3.911%.

The growth is supported by expectations that the Bank of England will have to sharply raise the rate, as the large tax incentives announced by the government last week will inevitably lead to a further increase in inflation.

On September 23, British Finance Minister Quasi Kwarteng announced a large-scale tax cut that will affect individuals and legal entities. It is expected that these measures will increase the budget deficit in the current financial year by more than 70 billion pounds. At the same time, the minister clarified that he does not exclude further tax breaks.

The stimulus measures of the new UK government will require an increase in the issuance of government bonds, which is one of the factors pushing down their value.

Market participants expect the Bank of England to raise the base rate by 100 basis points at the November meeting. However, there is an opinion that the Central Bank may raise the rate until November, in an attempt to contain the fall in the national currency. An increase in interest rates may exacerbate difficulties in the economy, since the tightening of monetary policy reduces the disposable incomes of the population and leads to an increase in the cost of mortgages.

Existing analytical skills must be able to be considered properly, this is done so that traders can be more leverage in getting maximum trading security and comfort like what I got from Tickmill.

September 27. Iraq: oil may rise to $150 per barrel​​​​​​​

The price of oil on the world market may reach $150 per barrel in the coming months. This was stated by Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein in an interview on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

And there are significant risks here: if oil prices rise in winter, it will hit the economies of countries that do not produce oil. In addition to the seasonal factor of rising prices for hydrocarbons, the Iranian politician noted the impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the cost of oil.

On Tuesday, the commodity asset is steadily growing after yesterday's fall to the level of $82.46: the current Brent quote is $85.54 per barrel. The driver of growth is concerns due to a reduction in supply on the market.

Also, traders continue to monitor the gathering strength of Hurricane Jan in the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron Corp has already announced the suspension of the operation of two production platforms, the total production volume of which is about 120 thousand barrels per day. British BP also intends to close two platforms in the region, the production volumes at each of which exceed 100 thousand barrels per day.

In addition, the decision of the OPEC+ countries to reduce the volume of oil production, as previously repeatedly stated by representatives of the alliance, can support oil prices. In particular, in order to maintain prices at $90 per barrel, OPEC will need to reduce production by 1 million b/d. In the meantime, the organization can reduce production by at least 500 thousand b/s.

October 3. The pound rose sharply after the British authorities rejected the budget plan​​​​​​​

The pound jumped sharply on Monday after the British government announced the cancellation of a plan to reduce taxes for the rich, which was a shock to the market and scared investors.

British Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng said today that the government is ready to abandon the plan to abolish the 45% maximum income tax rate. Against this background, the pound reached $ 1.1263 in a pair with the US dollar.

Last Monday, the British currency fell to a record low of 1.0356. Investors were scared by the fact that tax cuts would spur inflation and lead to an even faster increase in the interest rate. And this will undermine the already struggling UK economy.

Several members of the ruling Conservative Party also opposed the tax reduction program. Citizens themselves also spoke out against it, judging by the results of public opinion polls.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund also sharply criticized the new fiscal package, which includes the rejection of the planned increase in the social security tax rate and a reduction in the tax on the purchase of real estate below 250 thousand pounds. Representatives of the IMF said that this would contradict the tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of England.

The selection of the existing broker must be able to be considered properly, this is done so that traders can be more leverage in getting maximum trading security and comfort like what I got from Tickmill.

October 4. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the base rate by only 25 bps​​​​​​​

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly reduced the pace of tightening its monetary policy, noting a deterioration in the global economic outlook. This time, the regulator raised the interest rate by only 25 basis points, to 2.6%. Most analysts expected an increase of 50 bps.

Recall that the RBA raised the rate by 50 bps in June, July, August and September in an attempt to slow down inflation, which may peak by the end of 2022 at about 8%.

«One of the sources of uncertainty is the prospects for the global economy, which have worsened recently,» said the head of the Australian Central Bank, Philip Lowe.

In addition, the RBA fears that the tightening of financial conditions will have negative consequences for consumer budgets and spending.

Earlier, the Australian central bank has already stated that it intends to slow down the pace of rate hikes at some point, as it expects a rapid weakening of inflation in 2023 along with falling commodity prices.

The Australian dollar reacted with a decline to the news about the rate: the AUD/USD pair fell to $0.6470 during trading on Tuesday, compared with $0.6514 at the close of the previous session.