Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

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October 6. Oil rose above the level of $94 per barrel​​​​​​​

Oil quotes on Thursday remain in the area of local highs reached after the announcement of the results of yesterday's meeting of OPEC+ ministers.

The organization decided to reduce quotas for oil production in November by 2 million b/s. Analysts note that this decision signals that Saudi Arabia and the alliance as a whole are striving to stabilize and support oil markets.

At the same time, it is noted that the actual decline in production will be less, since at the moment OPEC+ lags behind the maximum permitted production levels by about 3.6 million b/s. About 1.2 million b/d of the total under–production is accounted for by OPEC countries, and 2.4 million – by OPEC+ countries.

Yesterday, after the end of the ministerial meeting, Brent jumped to the level of $93.90 per barrel. Today, the asset continued to grow and reached $94.44 per barrel. The last time such price values were observed was in mid-September.

Additional support for the oil market was provided by data on fuel reserves in the United States. According to the Ministry of Energy of the country, commercial oil reserves decreased by 1.36 million barrels last week, while analysts predicted an increase of 1.8 million barrels.

Gasoline stocks decreased by 4.73 million barrels, distillate stocks – by 3.44 million barrels. Analysts expected a decrease in gasoline stocks by 1.1 million barrels and a drop in distillate stocks by 1.5 million barrels.

October 5. The New Zealand central bank raised its key rate to a seven-year high

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has raised interest rates by 50 basis points to a seven-year high of 3.5%. The regulator also announced its readiness to further raise the rate in an attempt to contain stubbornly high inflation.

The central bank's decision coincided with analysts' forecasts. The current increase was the eighth since the beginning of the monetary policy tightening cycle, which started a year ago. RBNZ accelerated the step from 25 to 50 points in April and has now brought the rate level to the cyclical highs of 2014-2015.

It also became known that the monetary policy committee discussed an increase even by 75 bps, but eventually stopped at half a point.

«It remains appropriate to continue tightening monetary policy at the same pace to maintain price stability and ensure maximum employment,» said the representative of the regulator.

October 10. Gold is trading below $1700 amid a strengthening dollar​​​​​​​

At the beginning of the new trading week, the price of gold shows a steady decline: on Monday, the precious metal quotes fell below the psychological level of $ 1,700. The current price of gold is $1,673 per troy ounce.

Gold prices have been declining for the fourth consecutive session on the back of the strengthening of the US dollar, supported by strong data on the labor market. Friday's Non-Farm payrolls report showed that unemployment in September fell to 3.5% from August's level of 3.7%, although markets did not expect a change in the indicator. The number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy increased by 263 thousand, while analysts predicted an indicator of 250 thousand.

Such macro statistics reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy, which traditionally supports the dollar and restrains the price of gold.

The dollar index reached a more than 7-day peak (113.225), making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Silver for December delivery lost 3.4% in price and fell to $19,538. Palladium prices fell to $2,216 per ounce, platinum fell to $899.

October 11. The yield on German government bonds has reached its highest in 11 years​​​​​​​

The yield on 10-year German government bonds rose to 2.346% per annum, which was the highest since 2011. The reason for the growth was the statements of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the sidelines of the EU summit in Prague.

Scholz expressed support for the joint placement of debt obligations by the countries of the European Union in order to raise funds to help the members of the bloc in the fight against the energy crisis. The funds raised should be distributed between countries in the form of loans, not grants.

Such a position suggests that the German leadership is significantly changing its rhetoric. Previously, Germany resisted the idea of raising funds together with countries that the German authorities consider more wasteful financially.

The change of position came after Scholz was criticized for the announced plan to support the national economy by 200 billion euros due to the energy crisis. Some countries were outraged that this plan is aimed solely at supporting the German economy, without taking into account the interests of other EU countries. And this can cause an imbalance in the block.

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October 17. The EM government bond market faces a crisis​​​​​​​

Analysts suggest that the authorities of countries with developing economies that have been actively borrowing on debt markets during a period of low rates are now facing an increase in debt refinancing costs. Experts fear that some Emerging markets may face a debt crisis similar to the situation in Asia in the 1990-s.

In the current period, the yield of government bonds of a third of the countries included in the EM Sovereign Dollar Debt Index exceeds the yield of US Treasuries by more than 10 percentage points. And this is already a generally accepted indicator of stress in the debt market. For example, the yield of government bonds of Kenya and Egypt exceeds the yield of U.S. government bonds by more than 10 pp, Argentina and Ghana – by more than 20 pp.

Earlier this week, the Finance Minister of Nigeria announced the attempts of the authorities to agree on the extension of the maturity of a number of bonds, stressing that we are not talking about Eurobonds. Some other EM countries intend to default and restructure their debt, as the growing debt burden leads to an outflow of investments and slows down the growth of economies.

A few years ago, many developing countries began to place bonds in local currencies en masse in an attempt to protect themselves from the risks associated with an increase in the cost of debt servicing in the event of a fall in the national currency.

However, over time, they have again increased activity in foreign capital markets against the background of extremely low interest rates in the United States and the eurozone. And in 2020, the volume of placements by developing countries of government bonds in dollars and euros reached a historic high and amounted to $747 billion.

October 18. Oil quotes are stuck in the range of $91-93 per barrel

For several days now, the oil market has been showing increased volatility in the range of $91-93 per barrel. The current price of Brent crude oil is $92.10 (yesterday's low of $91.40). North American WTI oil is trading near the level of $85.30 per barrel (yesterday's low is $84.30).

Today, the oil market is on the rise against the background of a local weakening of the US dollar, which is getting cheaper due to increased investor appetite for risk. At the same time, concerns about a potential recession in the global economy limit the growth of oil prices.

In addition, the downward pressure on oil prices continues to be exerted by concerns about the tightening of monetary policy of many major central banks of the world, aimed at curbing inflation. At the same time, China is expected to maintain a soft monetary policy to support the economy in the face of restrictions related to the coronavirus.

The market dynamics is also affected by the decision of OPEC+ to reduce oil production. As you know, in early October, the organization agreed to reduce production quotas by 2 million barrels per day, starting in November.

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October 19. Oil started to rise after falling the day before

On Wednesday afternoon, oil prices accelerated their growth after falling to lows for more than 2 weeks the day before. This drop was caused by the news that the US presidential administration intends to sell some of the oil from the country's strategic reserves (15 million barrels) in response to OPEC+ decision to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day from November.

The current price of Brent oil is $91.27 per barrel. WTI oil rose to $84.19 per barrel. The day before, Brent fell by 1.7%, and the price of WTI fell by 3.1%.

However, analysts believe that the current local gowth is a temporary phenomenon. The oil market will continue to be under pressure while the US sells off its reserves. It is expected that the American president may make a similar decision repeatedly this winter.

The release of resources is aimed at curbing the rise in fuel prices at gas stations in the United States and for oil in the world as a whole. In total, it is planned to release 180 million barrels of «black gold». At the moment, the US strategic oil reserve is at the lowest level since 1984, which is about 400 million barrels of oil.

At the same time, the potential for growth remains in the oil market amid traders' concern about the supply. The fact is that the EU embargo on energy supplies from Russia comes into force in December, and the G7 countries continue to work on the ceiling of prices for Russian oil. These factors will eventually be able to support oil prices at sufficiently high levels.

October 20. France, Spain and Portugal will create Green Energy Corridor

French President Emmanuel Macron said at the EU summit in Brussels that France, Spain and Portugal intend to create a «green corridor» that will replace the MidCat gas pipeline and open access to the energy market of the European Union to the countries of the Iberian Peninsula.

The three countries intend to abandon the MidCat project and start working together to create a new gas pipeline that will be able to bring the Iberian peninsula out of isolation and create a green energy corridor between Portugal and Spain. It is also planned that the new gas pipeline will run through France to the rest of Europe.

Macron stressed that the aim of the project is to unite the energy networks of the EU countries and the soonest transition to green energy.

The new «green hydrogen pipeline» will also be able to transport gas needed by the European energy market due to the ongoing energy crisis.

The next meeting of the heads of state will take place on December 8 and 9 in Alicante at the Euromed summit, which will unite 9 Mediterranean EU states. There, France, Spain and Portugal will discuss the timing, investments, cost allocation and the amount of economic resources that will have to be used when creating a new project.