Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

June 16. Natural gas prices in Europe jumped by 30% due to the closure of the field

Natural gas prices in Europe have soared by 30% due to the closure of the largest Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. This decision was made after a series of earthquakes that damaged thousands of homes.

Although a final decision has not yet been made, the official closure of the field is expected after a government meeting at the end of June. This deposit is the oldest in the country and it has been in operation for 60 years.

This news caused a significant increase in gas futures prices, and then prices stabilized and rose by 10%, reaching 42.16 euros per megawatt hour.

The closure of Groningen is due to frequent earthquakes caused by gas extraction, which have led to the destruction of thousands of homes in the region since the 1980s. Plans to close the field were accelerated after a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Mark Rutte and accusations of an ineffective government response to the problems.

The Groningen field will operate at minimum levels until the final closure and about 2.8 billion cubic meters of gas will still be produced.

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September 8. German inflation slowed to 6.4% in August

According to the final data of the German Federal Statistical Office, in August consumer prices that meet European Union standards increased by 6.4% compared to the same period last year.

Thus, inflation slowed down from 6.5% in July. The result corresponds to the preliminary assessment and forecasts of experts.

On a monthly basis, prices for consumer goods and services increased by 0.4%, after an increase of 0.5% in July.

Inflation, calculated only by German standards, also slowed down – in August the indicator fell to 6.1% y/y from 6.2% in July. This was the minimum growth in the last three months.

The cost of energy in Germany accelerated its growth to 8.3% from 5.7%. The cost of food increased by 9% (in July – by 11%).

Core inflation, excluding volatile energy and food prices, remained stable and amounted to 5.5% y/y in August, remaining at the level of the previous month.

Preliminary data on the dynamics of inflation in Germany in September will be published on September 28.

September 11. Oil market news

On Monday morning, oil prices remain stable in the area above $90 per barrel.

The current quotation of Brent crude oil is $90.30. The maximum reached at the end of last week is $90.83. North American WTI oil shows similar dynamics: the current price is $86.97 per barrel, Friday's maximum is $87.75.

These marks were the highest since November last year. Over the past week, prices for Brent rose by 2.4%, and for WTI – by 2.3%.

The current slight decline in prices is probably a technical correction. Although the oil market is still under pressure from concerns related to the slowdown in economic growth in China.

China returned to inflation in August, but the growth rate was slower than expected. Consumer prices (CPI index) in the country last month increased by 0.1% in annual terms, which was below the average analysts' expectations of 0.2%. In July, the decline was 0.3%.

This week, attention should be paid to the publication of OPEC's monthly report on the oil market, which is scheduled for Tuesday. And on Wednesday, the US Department of Energy will present a weekly report on crude oil reserves in the country.

The main events by the morning: March 21

The Fed kept its key rate at 5.5%. Jerome Powell said that a rate hike could stifle the country's economy and budget due to rising public debt costs. At the same time, inflationary pressures are still too high to mitigate monetary policy.

The US dollar is getting cheaper after the Fed meeting, which did not bring surprises to the market. The Fed's forecasts for 2025 suggest only three rate cuts instead of the previously expected four, which somewhat reduces the prospects for the dollar and highlights uncertainty in the US economic future, including the risk of continued inflation.

There are more and more problems with the supply of Russian oil to India. Reliance, India's largest energy company, has stopped accepting Sovcomflot tankers with oil on board due to fears of secondary sanctions. The company requires a change of the carrier.

German companies are concerned that the EU is losing its attractiveness for doing business. More than half of the surveyed German entrepreneurs (56%) noted a decrease in the attractiveness of the EU as a business platform over the past 5 years, while only 7% of executives see the situation in a positive light. The main reasons were the growing bureaucracy and trade restrictions.

Japan is demonstrating a reduction in trade with Russia. In February, total exports from Japan to Russia decreased by 33.6%, while imports from Russia fell by 10.2%. Nevertheless, there is an increase in certain sectors: LNG supplies from Russia increased by 8%, fish and fish products – by 9%, Japanese motorcycles to Russia – by 13.2%.

The U.S. Department of Justice is preparing to file a new antitrust lawsuit against Apple. This time, the company is accused of restricting access to iPhone hardware features. This case will be the third time in the last 14 years that the agency is suing the tech giant, which may be part of a broader Biden administration campaign against the dominance of large technology companies in the United States.

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The price of gold continues to break records

Gold, which ended trading at a historic high on Thursday, continues to rise on Monday amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On Friday, due to Easter, the exchanges of the United States and many European countries were closed.

The price of June gold contracts at the close of trading on the New York Comex exchange on Thursday was $2,238.4 per ounce. On Monday, the futures price rose 1.8% to reach $2,286.35. In March, the price of gold increased by 8.9%, and for the entire first quarter – by 8%.

Analysts note that the unprecedented rally in gold was caused by softer inflation data in the United States, which increased expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in June. The consumer price index (PCE) in the United States in February increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, which was lower than analysts' expectations, who predicted an inflation rate of 0.4%.

Markets estimate the probability of a Fed base rate cut in June at about 70%, and also expect that by the end of 2024 it will decrease by 75 basis points from the current level of 5.25-5.5% per annum.

As you know, lower interest rates create a favorable environment for gold, increasing its attractiveness as an investment asset. Gold investors act with confidence that the Fed will prefer to lower interest rates regardless of whether inflation reaches the target level.
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Oil prices are on the rise due to the situation in the Middle East

Oil prices rose slightly on Monday after the strongest weekly drop in seven months. Brent quotes rose to $83.70 per barrel. North American WTI crude is trading near $79.00.

This came amid growing signs that recent cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas have not made significant progress. The media reported that the last round of negotiations ended without reaching an agreement. This happened after the Israeli strike on Rafah, which killed at least 10 people.

The ongoing conflict increases expectations of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, which may lead to a reduction in oil supplies from this region.

However, further growth in oil prices is limited by the prospect of weaker demand and reduced supplies this year. These factors also contributed to the sharp decline in oil prices last week. High interest rates and inflation are expected to remain factors putting pressure on the global economy this year, which could undermine oil demand.

Recent data on the growth of oil production in the United States to record levels and an increase in oil reserves have also affected oil prices, raising fears that OPEC and its allies may not extend production cuts until the end of June.

The main events by the morning: May 7

The EU is considering trade sanctions against Israel due to the policy of aggressive war in the Gaza Strip. Belgium proposed the initiative. And although Belgium had already decided on its own to impose sanctions a few weeks ago, the country's Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, stressed that a collective approach from the entire alliance was needed.

Brussels has announced that the EU ambassador will not attend Vladimir Putin's inauguration on May 7. The authorities of Poland, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom also announced their refusal to send their representatives to participate in the ceremony.

SberPay launched in Turkey. To use this service, you must inform Sber at the time of purchase that you want to pay through the Metropol system and then go to the website payinturkey.com.

The European Union plans to impose sanctions against the Russian version of SWIFT as part of the 14th package of sanctions.

The demand for workers who speak Chinese increased by 63% in 2024. Proficiency in Chinese at a fluent/conversational level increases the average earnings of a specialist by 18-20%. Chinese is the second most popular language after English.

The EU countries have reached a consensus on the use of proceeds from frozen Russian assets. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the readiness of the EU countries to direct 90% of all profits to the military needs of Ukraine.