Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

China is changing the game: new challenges for the global economy

China, long considered the engine of the global economy, is now experiencing a decline in consumer confidence and spending cuts.

The problems of the real estate market, the weakness of the labor market and the fall in stock prices exacerbate the situation, reducing household well-being and leading to a decrease in confidence in the economy. As a result, the trend towards reducing consumer spending is strengthening, which is especially alarming, since China's economic growth is increasingly dependent on domestic consumption.

A weak labor market is a special factor that causes panic and encourages people to stick to conservative measures more. New savings are growing and spending is declining, creating a vicious circle of low confidence and an economically stagnant situation.

It is worth noting that the change in sentiment in China has negative consequences for the global economy. A decrease in import demand leads to a slowdown in global growth. An excess of goods creates deflationary risks, and the retail sales sector is experiencing serious difficulties.

Chinese consumers are becoming cautious, which negatively affects the financial results of the world's leading brands, especially those focused on the Chinese market. Instead of stimulating growth, the Chinese government pays great attention to regulation, preferring the sustainability of expansion.
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Experts: Bitcoin and Ethereum have no future

The period of bitcoin's rapid growth seems to have come to an unexpected end. Many experts and investors are convinced that a further rise in BTC should not be expected. This opinion reflects the current pessimistic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

The beginning of the year was marked by general euphoria, when memecoins were considered as a new investment opportunity, and some digital assets predicted an increase of 50 times. However, today, in the face of general skepticism, even moderate forecasts seem too optimistic.

The volatility of the cryptocurrency market has long been known: sharp ups are often replaced by collapses. However, despite the pessimistic forecasts, there is also a positive trend. Thus, Zürcher Cantonalbank, one of the largest banks in Switzerland, has provided its customers with the opportunity to trade and store bitcoin and Ethereum through mobile applications. This happened on September 4 in cooperation with Crypto Finance, regulated by FINMA.

The example of ZKB demonstrates that despite the current difficulties, the process of accepting cryptocurrencies in the financial world continues. In Switzerland, the attitude towards digital assets remains positive, which strengthens their position in the global market.

In general, although the short-term prospects may look disappointing, the long-term adoption of cryptocurrencies and the participation of traditional financial institutions in them indicate their significant potential and sustainability.
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Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2%

The Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) has published final data on eurozone GDP growth in the second quarter. The eurozone economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous three months and by 0.6% year-on-year, confirming preliminary estimates.

Despite the positive dynamics, consumer spending decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, and gross capital investment decreased by 2.2%. On the other hand, government spending increased by 0.6% and exports increased by 1.4%, while imports increased by 0.5%.

The dynamics of GDP in individual eurozone countries varies. Germany faced a 0.1% quarter—on-quarter GDP contraction, while France and Italy posted 0.2% growth and Spain 0.8%.

Preliminary data on the dynamics of eurozone GDP in the third quarter will be published on October 30.
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Gold Soars to the Stratosphere

No correction? No problem. Even the slightest dips in gold attract new bulls eager to buy at lower prices. The combination of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, slowing global economy, uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election, high demand from central banks, and gold's status as a safe-haven asset leaves no doubt about the strength of the upward trend in XAU/USD and the precious metal's ability to set new records.

Rumors of an impending recession are pushing treasury bond yields downward, which in turn is causing global debt yields to fall. The average yield on investment-grade government and corporate debt has dropped to 3.3%, its lowest level since September 2022. The main beneficiary of this process is gold, which pays no interest and easily outperforms bonds when rates fall.

Global Bond Yield Dynamics

The cooling of the U.S. labor market and economy forces the Fed to begin a monetary easing cycle, which has historically benefited precious metals. In theory, the U.S. dollar weakens under such conditions, providing a tailwind for XAU/USD. However, as events in 2023-2024 have shown, gold can rise even amidst a rally in the USD index. It serves as an alternative to fiat currencies, which are suffering from the synchronization of the Fed's monetary easing with other central banks.

Moreover, central banks, especially in developing countries, favor precious metals as assets immune to third-party countries' influence. In particular, the U.S.'s push to impose the dollar as a reserve currency and means of payment is facing resistance and has triggered a process of de-dollarization. As a result, central banks are likely to maintain a high appetite for gold purchases.

Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris comes to power in the U.S., the budget deficit will continue to grow. It stands at a record $35.4 trillion, and there are no signs of it decreasing. Both Republicans and Democrats will push for new fiscal stimulus measures, which will increase the imbalance and heighten default risks. This creates an ideal environment for safe-haven assets like gold.

Thus, XAU/USD has plenty of reasons to continue its rally. Will the precious metal wait for the August U.S. inflation data, or will it surge to record highs befo*****d? In any case, the deflationary process amid a cooling labor market speaks about the slowdown of the U.S. economy, increases the risks of aggressive monetary easing by the Fed, and lights a green light for the analyzed asset.

Technically, the daily gold chart shows a Spike and Ledge pattern. A breakout of the upper boundary of the consolidation range at $2470–2525 per ounce will increase the chances of a sustained rally toward at least $2575 and serve as a signal for purchases.
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Solar vs. Media Storm: Solar Gains, Trump Media Falls!

US Stocks Gain Thanks to Tech Sector
All three major US stock indexes ended higher on Wednesday. A solid rally in tech stocks offset a morning of disappointment caused by inflation data that dashed hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week.

The tech sector, represented by the S&P 500 (.SPLRCT), posted an impressive 3.3% gain after starting the day lower. Key to this was Nvidia (NVDA.O), whose shares soared 8%. The reason for the rise was a report from Semafor that the US government is considering allowing Nvidia to export advanced chips to Saudi Arabia.

Political factors fuel investor interest
An additional factor influencing market sentiment was events in the political arena. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris managed to put her opponent, Republican Donald Trump, on the defensive during the presidential debate, which caused some reaction from the market.

Inflation data: expectations were not met
Earlier in the day, the US Department of Labor released data on the consumer price index (CPI), which rose 0.2% in August, which is in line with July. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.3%, beating economists' expectations of a 0.2% gain.

Market Rate Changes: Traders Adjust Forecasts
Following the release of inflation data, traders revised down their expectations for a Fed rate cut. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose to 85% from 66% the day before, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut fell to 15% from 34%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Investors were hoping for softer inflation data
"The market was probably expecting a more muted inflation reading, which would give the Fed more reason to cut rates by 50 basis points," said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis. "However, the report came in slightly above expectations, putting additional pressure on the Fed to limit itself to a 25 basis point cut."

As the trading day wore on, investors gradually adjusted to the new inflation data. Janasewicz also emphasized that it was the technology sector that supported the broader market, standing out from the crowd.

Indices rise amid gains in tech stocks
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 124.75 points, or 0.31%, to 40,861.71. The S&P 500 Index (.SPX) rose 58.61 points, or 1.07%, to 5,554.13. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 369.65 points, or 2.17%, to 17,395.53.

Sector Breakdown: Who's Leading and Laggards?
Of the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, six were up, with consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) leading the way, up 1.3%. Meanwhile, energy (.SPNY) was the laggard, down 0.93%, and consumer staples (.SPLRCS) was down 0.88%.

Financials Hold Their Ground
The S&P 500 Financials (.SPSY) managed to pare its losses by the end of trading, closing down just 0.39% after falling more than 2% at the session low.

Financials Gain
American Express (AXP.N) led the pack, posting the biggest gains after its CFO said on a conference call that lending was holding up and consumer spending was strong.

Big U.S. banks also pared early losses to end the day higher. Goldman Sachs (GS.N) rose 0.9% and JPMorgan (JPM.N) rose 0.8%. The financial sector was under pressure earlier Tuesday on concerns about a drop in trading revenue, a slow recovery in investment banking and a possible decline in interest income in light of upcoming rate changes.

Market Reacts to Political Debate
The political debate also caused notable market moves. Eight weeks before the presidential election and after the debate, contracts on a Kamala Harris victory on the PredictIt platform rose to 57 cents on the dollar of potential payout, up from 53 cents before the debate. Donald Trump contracts fell to 48 cents from 52 cents.

These changes led to a decline in the value of stocks of companies that were expected to benefit from a Trump presidency. In particular, stocks related to cryptocurrency, blockchain, and private prisons showed a decline. Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) shares fell 10.5%.

Solar companies are favorites due to political expectations
Amid the expected benefits for green energy from a Harris administration, shares of solar panel manufacturers have significantly increased. First Solar (FSLR.O) climbed 15.2%, Sunrun (RUN.O) added 11.3% and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG.O) rose 8.5%.

Markets Remain Unsure After Debate
While the debate did not provide Wall Street with a clear answer to important policy questions, experts believe that Kamala Harris' proposals to raise corporate taxes could weigh on corporate profits. Meanwhile, Donald Trump's tough stance on tariffs could increase inflation risks.

GameStop Slips After News of Share Sale
GameStop (GME.N) shares fell nearly 12% after the company announced plans to issue up to 20 million new shares and reported a decline in second-quarter revenue, raising investor concerns about the company's future growth.

Lithium Stocks Rise After CATL Announcement
Lithium stocks surged after Chinese battery major CATL (300750.SZ) announced plans to adjust lithium carbonate production at its Yichun facility. Shares of Albemarle (ALB.N), one of the world's largest lithium miners, rose 13.6% in response to the news.

Marginal Markets: Stocks Rising and Falling
At the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancers outnumbered decliners 1.4 to 1, with 342 new highs and 130 new lows. On the Nasdaq, 2,337 stocks rose and 1,882 fell, creating a 1.24-to-1 gainer-decliner ratio.

The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and 17 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 48 new highs and 129 lows. Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 12.19 billion shares, above the 20-day moving average of 10.80 billion shares.

Market Rebounds After Morning Selloff
Wall Street recovered from a morning selloff on Wednesday, closing higher. Brent crude prices also rebounded from three-and-a-half-year lows. This came as a key inflation report bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week.

Debate and the Market: Analyzing the Implications
Investors were closely watching the US presidential debate on Tuesday night to assess possible changes in economic and fiscal policy after the November elections.

By mid-trading, all three major US stock indexes had reversed their downward trend, turning a morning sell-off into a rally. Technology (.SPLRCT), especially chip makers (.SOX), outperformed significantly, helping the Nasdaq to lead the way.

Inflation Data: Mixed Signals for the Market
The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), fell 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%, below expectations, according to the US Department of Labor. But the benchmark index, which excludes volatile categories such as food and energy, posted a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.2% annual gain, beating analysts' forecasts.

Inflation expectations remain mixed
"The inflation report was a mixed bag, satisfying both the bears and the bulls," said Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services in Indiana. "Initially, it looked like a 50 basis point rate cut was unlikely," he continued. "Now investors may be starting to realize that it's not such bad news."

Markets predict Fed rate cut
Markets are pricing in an 85% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting. The chance of a larger 50 basis point rate cut has fallen to 15%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

European stocks remain steady ahead of ECB decision
European stock markets ended the trading session little changed as investors turned their attention to the European Central Bank (ECB) and its upcoming interest rate decision expected on Thursday. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose a symbolic 0.01%, while the MSCI index of global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.62%.

Asian Markets, Emerging Economies in the Red
Emerging market stocks were down 0.37%. MSCI's broad index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.24%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 1.49%.

Bonds: Yields stabilise after recent swings
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields steadied after an early decline, with rates hitting their lowest since June 2, 2023. The 10-year yield was last at 3.6609%, down from 3.644% at Tuesday's close, with the price down 5/32. The 30-year note also fell 12/32, pushing its yield up to 3.9743% from 3.954% the previous day.

Dollar Strengthens on Inflation Data
The U.S. currency showed modest gains against a basket of global currencies after inflation data confirmed expectations for a smaller 25 basis point rate cut.

The dollar index (.DXY) rose 0.08%, while the euro slipped 0.04% to $1.1015.

Yen Strengthens, Pound Loses
The Japanese yen strengthened 0.04% against the U.S. dollar to trade at 142.40 per dollar. The British pound was last seen at $1.3042, down 0.28% on the day.

Oil Recovers After Selloff
Oil prices steadied after Tuesday's big losses as U.S. crude inventories fell and supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine offset concerns about weaker global demand.

U.S. WTI crude rose 2.37% to $67.31 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 2.05% to $70.61 a barrel.

Gold Loses as Rate Cut Hopes Dim
Gold prices slipped as expectations for a bigger Fed rate cut at its upcoming monetary policy meeting faded.
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Moderna's bleak outlook drags stocks lower, Warner Brothers inspires investors with 10% gain

Wall Street is on the rise again: gold hits records
US stock markets showed solid gains on Thursday, with gold prices reaching a new all-time high. Investors are optimistic about the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, expecting an interest rate cut as early as next week.

Stock indices end the day higher
The key US indices fluctuated in mixed territory for most of the trading day, but showed solid gains by the close. The European Central Bank's recent decision to cut interest rates and slightly better-than-expected U.S. producer price data helped fuel the rally. Despite this, investors remain confident that the Fed will cut rates slightly at its next meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.58%, the S&P 500 rose 0.75%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1%. Strong results from tech companies helped the Nasdaq take the lead in growth.

World markets trending
The MSCI World Equity Index, which measures markets around the world, rose 1.08%, confirming positive investor sentiment in global markets.

ECB Cuts Rates Again
Earlier on Thursday, the European Central Bank announced its second interest rate cut in three months, which was driven by slowing inflation and weakening economic growth in the eurozone. The cut was predictable, but the ECB has yet to give clear signals about its future plans.

While the 0.25% rate cut did not come as a surprise to the market, the question remains as to how decisively and quickly the central bank will act in the remaining months of the year.

Focus on the Federal Reserve
Market participants are now focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which will decide on the key interest rate on Wednesday. Investors are expecting the Fed to make the first rate cut since 2020. However, fresh economic data released on Thursday suggest that the Fed will likely limit the rate cut to 25 basis points, rather than the larger 50 basis point cut that some analysts had previously expected.

Inflation data softened expectations
An important factor for the upcoming Fed decision was the inflation data released on Wednesday and Thursday. The indicators point to a slight increase in prices, but the rate of inflation remains relatively low. Thus, the core consumer price index increased by 0.28% in August, which is higher than the expected growth of 0.2%. In addition, the data on producer prices also exceeded expectations: in August, they grew by 0.2% instead of the expected 0.1%. Despite this, the general trend remains in favor of slowing inflation, which increases the likelihood of a moderate rate cut.

The dollar weakens, the euro grows
Amid expectations of a rate cut, the US dollar showed weakness against major world currencies. The dollar index, which tracks its dynamics against a basket of leading currencies, fell by 0.52%, reaching 101.25. At the same time, the euro strengthened by 0.54%, reaching $1.1071. This trend reflects global changes in investor sentiment, who expect further easing of monetary policy in the United States.

Oil prices rise: Hurricane impact, production recovery
Oil prices continued their upward movement, adding almost 3%, amid investor concerns about how severely U.S. crude output will be affected by Hurricane Francine in the Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, producers announced forced production cuts, but there were signs that some export ports were partially reopening.

WTI crude rose 2.72% to $69.14 per barrel, while benchmark Brent crude rose 2.21% to $72.17 per barrel.

Gold at new heights: a safe haven for investors
Gold prices soared to all-time highs as expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut made the precious metal even more attractive for investment. Amid market instability, gold has once again confirmed its status as a "safe haven" for capital.

Spot gold rose 1.85% to a record $2,558 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.79% to settle at $2,557 an ounce.

Bond Market: Yields Rise on Inflation Data
U.S. Treasury yields also showed modest gains. The two-year yield rose 1.2 basis points to 3.6579%. The 10-year yield rose 3 basis points to 3.683%.

Inflation Beats Expectations
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks changes in the cost of goods and services at the producer level, rose 0.2% in August, beating expectations for a 0.1% gain. The core measure, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose 0.3%, also beating expectations for a 0.2% gain.

Labor Market Remains Stable
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 7 was 230,000, which was in line with analysts' expectations. This data confirms the stable state of the American labor market, despite some macroeconomic fluctuations.

Employment and Economic Growth: Market Awaits Fed Decision
The latest economic reports show weakening employment and slowing economic growth, which has raised expectations for a deeper 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, the release of inflation data on Wednesday changed the market sentiment, with traders now assessing the likelihood of a more modest cut.

Fed: Rate Cut Likely
Despite Thursday's fluctuations, CME's FedWatch tool showed that traders still have a 69% chance of expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September 17-18 meeting. If that happens, it would be the first rate cut since March 2020, marking an important step in monetary policy.

Russell 2000 Leads Gain
Against these expectations, the Russell 2000 index of small-cap companies was the best performer among the indices, gaining 1.2%. That underscores confidence that small businesses can benefit from the upcoming easing of credit conditions.

S&P 500: All Sectors in the Green
All 11 industry sectors in the S&P 500 ended the day in positive territory. Communications services led the way, rising 2%. Warner Bros Discovery was particularly strong, jumping 10.4% after the company announced an agreement with Charter Communications to give customers access to ad-supported versions of its Warner Max and Discovery+ streaming services. Charter also posted a strong gain, gaining 3.6%.

Moderna Under Pressure
Not all stocks ended the day in positive territory. Shares of vaccine maker Moderna fell 12.4%, hitting their lowest since November last year. The company announced revenue guidance for next year in the range of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion, which was lower than analysts expected, which caused the stock to fall.

Kroger pleases investors: shares soar
One of the brightest news of the day was the rapid growth of shares of the supermarket chain Kroger, which rose by 7.2%. This happened because the company exceeded expectations for the second quarter results and raised the lower limit of its annual sales forecast. The optimistic report became a signal to investors that the chain is confidently coping with market challenges.

Gold miners on a wave of success
Shares of companies involved in gold mining sharply went up, following the rise in prices of the precious metal. The spot price of gold reached an all-time high, which led to a 5.8% increase in the Arca Gold BUGS index. Investors continue to view gold as a safe haven against market risk and inflation, fueling interest in the gold mining sector.

Bulls outnumber losers on the NYSE and Nasdaq
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancers outnumbered losers by a wide margin, 3.45 to 1. There were 405 new highs and just 46 new lows, a strong showing for bulls.

On the Nasdaq, advancers also outnumbered losers by a wide margin, 1.73 to 1. The S&P 500 posted 37 new yearly highs and no new lows, signaling positive sentiment in the market, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 73 new highs and 76 new lows, showing more diversity in stock performance.

Volumes Remain Steady
The total volume of shares traded on U.S. exchanges was 10.58 billion, just slightly below the 10.82 billion average over the past 20 trading sessions. This figure shows that activity in the markets remains strong despite some swings in individual sectors.
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India: economic growth is possible up to 8%

The head of the Reserve Bank of India, Shaktikanta Das, expressed confidence in the country's ability to achieve sustainable economic growth in the region of 7.5-8% in the medium term.

This statement was made against the background of published data on the slowdown in India's GDP growth to 6.7% in the second quarter of this year, compared with 8.2% in the same period last year. This dynamic has increased the pressure on the RBI to lower interest rates.

Das stressed that steady growth of 7.5-8% is realistic for the largest country in the world. Although the International Monetary Fund previously called India the «fastest growing major economy in the world,» growth has slowed in recent quarters and the IMF forecasts a decline to 6.5% in 2025.

The head of the RBI also noted that the influence of external factors, such as the actions of the Fed, is taken into account, but internal factors remain decisive. The question of a possible reduction in the RBI rate in October remained open. Das stated that the decision will depend on the monthly dynamics of inflation and growth.
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Oil growth is held back by concerns about weakening demand

Yesterday, Brent oil prices rose to $73.30 per barrel, supported by expectations of lower interest rates and supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Francine.

However, this growth was held back today by concerns about declining demand, especially in China, amid weak economic data released over the weekend. The current Brent quote is $72.50 per barrel. North American WTI crude is trading near $68.96.

Supply disruptions due to Hurricane Francine

After Hurricane Francine, oil production in the Gulf of Mexico decreased by 12%, and natural gas production by 16%. These disruptions may contribute to further price increases, although oil companies have been actively restoring production in recent days as the hurricane weakens.

Awaiting the Fed's decision

Investors are waiting for the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which will be held on Wednesday. The central bank may lower rates, which will support oil prices. Expectations of a more significant rate cut of 50 basis points put pressure on the dollar and stimulate the growth of oil prices.

Concerns about demand

However, the increase in oil prices is limited by concerns about slowing economic growth in China. The recent weak economic performance of China, the world's largest oil importer, has increased concerns about demand for black gold. An additional negative was brought by the forecasts of OPEC and the IEA, which lowered expectations of oil demand for the coming years.
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Inflation in the eurozone has slowed to 2.2%

Inflation in the eurozone slowed to 2.2% in annual terms in August, according to the final report of Eurostat. This decrease compared to July's 2.6% inflation coincided with the preliminary estimate and forecasts of analysts. On a monthly basis, prices in the region increased by 0.1%.

The CPI Core index (core inflation), which does not take into account volatile prices for energy, food and alcohol, showed an increase of 2.8% year-on-year.

Prices for food, alcohol and tobacco products increased by 2.3%, similar to the July figure. Energy prices, on the contrary, decreased by 3% after rising by 1.2% in July. Services have risen in price by 4.1%. In the 27 EU countries, the annual price increase was 2.4% after 2.8% in July.

The lowest inflation was recorded in Lithuania (0.8%), Latvia (0.9%), Ireland, Slovenia and Finland (1.1%). The highest growth in consumer prices was recorded in Romania (5.3%), Belgium (4.3%) and Poland (4.0%).
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In Germany, annual inflation fell to 2.0% from 2.6% in July, in France — to 2.2% from 2.7% a month earlier, in Italy — to 1.2% from 1.6% in July, in Spain — to 2.4% after 2.9% a month earlier.

Kiyosaki: Bitcoin, gold and silver will soar in price

Robert Kiyosaki, author of the book «Rich Dad, Poor Dad», predicts significant growth of bitcoin against the background of easing monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System.

In his opinion, lower interest rates will force investors to move away from "fake assets" such as bonds and invest in real assets such as bitcoin, gold and silver.

In his post on the social network «X», Kiyosaki stressed that those who argue about the advantages of gold or bitcoin will lose when the Fed continues to cut rates and prices for real assets begin to rise. The author criticized the debate about which is better, gold or bitcoin, comparing them to people «arguing about a Ferrari or Lamborghini while on the bus.»

After the Fed's rate cut on Wednesday evening, bitcoin continued its recent rise. On Thursday morning, the main digital coin rose to 3-week highs at $62,645. Subsequently, the quotes partially rolled back – the current BTC/USD quote is $62,093.
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