Thread: ForexMart's Forex News

September 14. OPEC downgrades forecast for global oil demand for 2020-2021

According to the September OPEC report, the organization downgraded the forecast for world oil demand for 2020 and 2021 by 0.4 million barrels per day. OPEC now expects a drop in demand by 9.5 million barrels per day this year and an increase of 6.6 million barrels next year. In 2020, demand is expected at 90.2 million barrels per day, and in 2021 – at 96.9 million.

The deterioration is mainly due to a decrease in the level of economic activity in several countries of the Asia-Pacific region due to an increase in the number of cases of infection with Covid-19. Oil demand in India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines in the second quarter was much lower than initially expected. At the same time, the demand for oil in China in the second quarter exceeded expectations.

The organization notes that forecasts for demand may be lowered again due to the risks of a second wave of coronavirus in the world and the difficulties associated with vaccination. Moreover, the restrictions due to the pandemic and the operation of many businesses remotely could prevent the transport sector from fully recovering to pre-crisis levels next year.

September 16. Annual inflation in the UK in August was 0.2%

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), inflation in Great Britain in August in annual terms slowed down to 0.2% from 1% in July. This is the lowest since December 2015.

On a monthly basis, deflation was recorded at 0.4%. Analysts predicted annual inflation of 0.1%, and on a monthly basis – deflation of 0.6%.

The CPIH index (inflation taking into account the costs of homeowners for the maintenance of housing) for the reporting month amounted to 0.5% in annual terms against 1.1% a month earlier. On a monthly basis, prices decreased by 0.3%, while in June their growth was 0.4%.

Core inflation (CPI Core), excluding food, alcohol, tobacco and energy, rose 0.9% on an annualized basis in August after rising 1.8% a month earlier. The experts forecast an increase of 0.6%.

September 17. The World Bank gave dates of the global economy recovery

World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart, speaking at the Trends 2021 online forum, said that the global economy will not recover from the coronavirus crisis until 2025.

Therein, in some countries the recession will last longer than in others. In particular, poor countries will be much more affected by the crisis, which could lead to an increase in the level of extreme poverty in the world from 8% to 9%.

In a June World Bank report, experts predicted the worst recession since World War II. According to them, the decline in the global economy in 2020 will be 5.2%.

September 21. UK thinks about canceling Tax Free shopping system

The British authorities announced that they are considering the possibility of canceling the Tax Free system from December 31 of this year, explaining this decision by too large budget losses in case of a tax refund after purchases.

Such a plan by the authorities drew sharp criticism from the tourist industry. The fact is that canceling the Tax Free system for foreign visitors could cost the UK billions of pounds in lost profits. In addition, 70,000 jobs will be at risk.

Tourists from non-EU countries make purchases in the UK annually in the amount of £3.5 billion. In case of refusal to refund VAT, Britain will become the only country without Tax Free, which may lead to the fact that tourists prefer shopping in other cities and countries.

At the moment, a Tax Free deduction can be obtained for purchases worth 30 pounds, the amount of VAT is 20%. It is noted that items purchased in this manner should not be used in the UK.

September 22. UK signaled new quarantine

On Tuesday, the UK said it intends to abandon the return of people to their usual jobs in an attempt to contain the rapidly growing second wave of Covid-19 in the country.

In addition to imposing curfews for pubs and restaurants, Prime Minister Boris Johnson called on the population to switch to remote work. Such statements may indicate that the country is moving towards expanding the tough social distancing measures introduced in the spring.

On the news, stocks in UK travel and leisure companies began to decline before they bounced back from the crisis (Ryanair, International Airlines Group and Air France). KLM shares plunged 4-5%, while shares in aerospace suppliers Meggitt, Senior and Rolls-Royce tumbled for the last to hit another new low for the year.

The British company Whitbread, which operates a chain of hotels and restaurants, announced today plans to cut 18% of its staff, or about 6 thousand jobs. The company's shares fell 3.5%, having lost more than half of their value this year.

September 23. US Department of Energy Oil Inventory Report

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy, the volume of commercial crude oil in storage in the United States (excluding strategic reserves) for the week ended September 18, decreased by 1.6 million barrels to 494.4 million barrels. Analysts predicted a decline in oil reserves by 4.0 million barrels.

US gasoline stocks decreased by 4.0 million barrels. and amounted to 227.5 million barrels. Experts expected a 1.9 million barrels of gasoline reserves to be cut. Distillate stocks (including diesel fuel and heating oil) decreased by 3.4 mln barrels. and amounted to 175.9 million barrels. Analysts had expected an increase in distillate stocks by 1.2 million barrels.

Oil reserves in the US Strategic Reserve (SPR) decreased by 0.8 million barrels. and amounted to 645.0 million barrels.

Cushing's commercial crude oil reserves remained unchanged at 54.3 mmbbl.

Earlier, the API Institute reported that commercial oil reserves in the United States increased by 0.7 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories decreased by 7.7 million barrels, distillate reserves decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and oil reserves in the Cushing storage facility increased by 0.3 million barrels.

September 24. Oil prices drop due to economic uncertainty and coronavirus

Oil prices fell on Thursday amid uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy and the situation with the coronavirus. The current quotation of Brent is $41.50 per barrel, WTI is $39.75.

Market participants are awaiting further action by the authorities of some countries amid an increase in new cases of coronavirus infection. Investors are concerned about the outlook for the global economy and oil demand amid the likelihood of re-imposing restrictions by some countries.

Additional pressure on oil prices was exerted by statements by the Iraqi oil minister that the country was counting on an agreement with OPEC + to increase oil exports. A week earlier, the minister said that Iraq had developed a plan to compensate for its overproduction of oil by the end of 2020 as part of the OPEC + deal.

September 28. Swiss GDP declines at record 40 years

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) of Switzerland, the country's GDP fell by 7.3% in the second quarter of this year. Such a decrease was recorded for the first time since 1980 – since the first calculation of quarterly indicators.

The indicator was revised downward, from -8.2%.

The department also clarifies that in the second quarter, aggregate demand decreased. Personal consumption has plummeted 8.1% due to the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it. In addition, the export of goods decreased – by 6.5%, the export of services fell by 15.3%.

September 30. Oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly decreased by 0.4% over the week

According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the country (excluding the strategic reserve) decreased by 2 million barrels, or 0.4%, and reached 492.4 million barrels. Analysts predicted an increase in reserves by 1.6 million, to 495.9 million barrels.

Oil production in the United States for the week averaged 10.7 million barrels per day, as in the previous week. On average, over the past four weeks, oil production in the United States amounted to 10.575 million barrels per day.

Recall that in early September, the US Department of Energy increased the forecast for the average oil production in the country for the current year by 120 thousand barrels per day, to 11.38 million (compared with the August estimate), and reduced for 2021 – by 60 thousand barrels, to 11.08 million barrels per day.

October 01. US industrial PMI declines unexpectedly

According to the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US Manufacturing Index (ISM Manufacturing) fell to 55.4% in September from 56% in August. Analysts had expected the indicator to rise to 56.4%.

In addition, the US service sector employment index rose to 49.6% in September from 46.4% in August. Experts had expected a decline to 45.8%.

October 5. US services PMI gains better than forecast

According to the American Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the index of business activity in the US services sector in September rose to 57.8%. The indicator for August was noted at 56.9%. Analysts had forecast a decline to 56.3%.

The employment index in the country's services sector in September rose to 51.8% from 47.9% in August.

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for services, calculated by IHS Markit and also released today, dropped to 54.6 points in September, up from 55 points in August.

Business activity in the US services sector continues to climb for the fourth straight month amid a gradual recovery from the coronavirus crisis. The service sector accounts for almost 90% of US GDP and about 80% of the country's working citizens.

October 06. The EU is ready to resort to new measures of economic stimulus

The head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said during her speech that the regulator is ready to resort to new monetary stimulus measures, including lowering the key interest rate even below zero, to help the recovery of the Euro zone economy.

Lagarde also noted that with the second wave of coronavirus in France and Spain, the prospects for restoring activity in the region look «a little more unstable.» The head of the ECB believes that the eurozone's GDP will not return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2022, so it is necessary to continue stimulating.

So far, the ECB has refrained from further cutting rates, although it announced a new stimulus program worth about 3 trillion euros. The key rate for today is 0.0%.

Representatives of the banking sector have repeatedly stated that negative rates of the ECB negatively affect profits. Analysts believe that the rate cut will lead to a weakening of the euro, which has strengthened against the US dollar in recent months. And this, in turn, will reduce the concerns of the regulator about the high rate of the euro, which negatively affects large exporters and inflation.