Thread: Forex daily News FBS

S&P concludes session above 2,800

Read at: http://bit.ly/2C2FxEJ

01.03.2019

On Friday, the S&P 500 boasted solid gains, closing above a major level and neglecting data that indicated decelerating American economic as well as global surge as expectations of a US-China trade agreement kept risk appetite alive.

Eventually, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by nearly 0.43%. As for the S&P 500, it managed to gain by approximately 0.69%, concluding above 2,800 for the first time since November 8. Besides this, the Nasdaq Composite rallied by 0.83%.

The American economy kept demonstrating signs of deceleration.

As a matter of fact, in December, consumer spending in the United States, accounting for more than two-thirds of the country’s economic activity, decreased by 0.5%. As for February’s ISM manufacturing data, it confounded hopes for 55.5.

The dive in personal spending actually represented the most impressive slump since 2009.

The consumer consumption demonstrating considerable worries going into year-end turns out to be more than sufficient to keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines for the time being.

The dismal data arose after the Chinese economy demonstrated a dive in factory activity for the third consecutive month. However, the tempo of the deceleration had speeded down, backing hopes a bottom was already forming.

Furthermore, sentiment on Wall Street was also backed by signs that Chinese and American negotiators are very close to coming to a compromise.

Larry Kudlow told that the agreements achieved the previous week show considerable progress on forced technology transfer, IP theft as well as cyber interference.

In addition to trade, the financial markets were also driven by an ascend in energy shares notwithstanding a dive in crude prices on signs of weakness in the Chinese economy.

5 important things this week will bring us!

Read at: http://bit.ly/2SJyq9E

04.03.2019

RBA rate statement (Tue, 5:30 MT (3:30 GMT) time) – The RBA Governor Philip Lowe is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. However, the comments by him and the members of the Australian central bank may provide volatility to the Australian dollar.

Australian GDP q/q (Wed, 2:30 MT (00:30 GMT) time) – According to analysts, the level of GDP growth for Australia will increase by 0.5%. Higher-than-expected figures will boost the Australian currency.

BOC rate statement (Wed, 17:00 MT (15:00 GMT) time) – We anticipate no changes to the current level of interest rate (1.75%). The bank of Canada governor may throw some hints on the possible changes to the current monetary policy. If the BOC is hawkish, the Canadian dollar will rise.

ECB rate statement and press conference (Thu, 14:45 and 15:30 MT (12:45 and 13:30 GMT) time) – Here we also do not expect changes to the current interest rate, but the ECB president Mario Draghi may comment on the further changes to the current monetary policy. If the European central bank is more confident in the current conditions, the euro will rise.

US Non-farm employment change (NFP) (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) – Analysts forecast the level of NFP to increase by 185 thousand jobs. At the same time, the level of average hourly earnings is forecast to increase by 0.3% and the level of unemployment change is expected to decline to 3.9%. Higher figures for NFP and average hourly earnings and lower figures for unemployment rate will boost the USD.

Hot topics:

Pro-Brexiters in the Conservative party of Great Britain suggested several conditions for supporting Theresa May’s plan at the Parliament.

Reportedly, China and the US are in the final stage of getting a trade deal. China offers to lower tariffs on American products and the US considers to remove sanctions against Chinese products.

During the weekend Trump said that strong USD and rate hikes were hurting the economy.

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China’s exports demonstrate the biggest dive for two years

More at: http://bit.ly/2tPb88m

06.03.2019

In February, China's exports went down following a shocking rebound in January. As for imports, they declined for a third month in a row, backing anxiety over whether China and America can tackle deep differences over trade.

In February, China's exports are anticipated to have slumped by 4.8% from 2018 after January’s 9.1% leap.

Such a tumble would be the greatest since December 2016. It drops a hint at a further weakening in global demand.

In February, imports are anticipated to have gone down by 1.4% from 2018 in contrast with January’s 1.5% dip.

Firmer-than-anticipated imports could enable some China watchers to ascertain that the Chinese economy is demonstrating signs of bottoming out responding to a pack of stimulus measures last year.

However, most experts usually caution that China's data early in 2018 can be extremely distorted by the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays because at that time some businesses speed up their shipments or scale back output prior to shutting for a extended break.

As follows from factory surveys, imports and exports are going to remain dismal in the nearer future, with February's official indicator indicating that export orders tumbled to their weakest value since the global financial downtime.

In February, China's total trade surplus tumbled steeply to $26.38 billion from $39.16 billion in January.

In response to soaring global and domestic pressure, this week the Chinese cabinet uncovered a 2019 economic surge objective of 6.0%-6.5%, down from an actual 6.6% last year, which appears to be the slowest tempo for almost 30 years.

On Tuesday, Premier Li Keqiang told parliament that China is going to shore up the Chinese economy through billions of dollars in extra tax cuts as well as infrastructure spending. What’s more, the Chinese government will decrease real interest rates.

Evergreen buck rallies to three-month maximums

More at: http://bit.ly/2EKiw9T

07.03.2019

On Thursday, the evergreen buck jumped to three-month peaks versus its counterparts against the backdrop of a dive in the common currency after the ECB came up with the alarm on euro-area surge and pushed back its hopes for a rate lift.

Gauging the greenback’s purchasing potential versus its major rivals the USD index shot up by 0.68% being worth 97.45.

The currency pair EUR/USD went down by 0.77% showing $1.1217 after the ECB pushed back its hopes for a rate lift to the end of 2019, diminished its surge objective for this year from 1.7% to 1.1% and also detailed fresh stimulus measures.

Mario Draghi, ECB governor came up with a dismal assessment of the euro zone economy, telling that a sizeable moderation in surge would proceed in 2019.

In addition to this, GBP/USD went down by 0.61% ending up with $1.3089 against the backdrop of worries that the Brexit deadlock will resume after the European bloc neglected Britain’s latest proposals on the Irish backstop.

In Brussels, British Attorney General Geoffrey Cox came up with the proposals, but they were neglected. The European bloc has provided Cox with time until Friday to have the revised proposals submitted, referring to remarks from European diplomats.

However, many experts have told that the March 29 Brexit deadline will be most probably postponed due to the fact Prime Minister Theresa May won’t win concessions from the European bloc that British lawmakers demand to vote in favor of her withdrawal agreement on March 12.

In addition to this, the currency pair USD/JPY headed south by about 0.19% concluding the trading session at Y111.54. As for USD/CAD, it soared by 0.11% showing C$1.3455.

American stocks keep diving

Read at: http://bit.ly/2J7IQQR

08.03.2019

On Friday, American shares kept diving for the fifth day after dismal British jobs data in February contributed to fears over decelerating global surge, which was driven by a steep dive in China's exports as well as a prolonged deceleration in the eurozone.

Meanwhile, last month, the American economy generated no more than 20,000 in contrast with hopes that nonfarm payrolls would surge by 180,000. The given data managed to overshadow unemployment rate that dived back below 4% along with the best annual wage surge since 2009.

A common gauge of the health of the American economy, the Dow Jones Transports index headed south by 1.60%, which is its steepest outcome for the last 11 losing marathons.

Fears about global surge escalated after exports in China, the world's number two economy, demonstrated the most impressive dive for three years last month that generated rumors of a trade meltdown.

It shows up on the heels of the ECB downgrading surge estimates and disclosing another round of stimulus.

The technology sector headed south by 0.88% and appeared to be the greatest drag on the S&P 500. As for Facebook, Apple, Netflix, and Amazon, they sank 0.7%-2.5%.

ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average headed south by 0.75% demonstrating 25,281.34. As for the S&P 500, it slipped by 0.93% hitting 2,723.25. The Nasdaq Composite decreased by approximately 0.90% ending up with 7,354.61.

The energy sector went down by about 2.44% because crude prices went down by 2%.

Aside from that, ExxonMobil inched down by 2%, while Chevron Corp sank by 1%.

In addition to this, Costco Wholesale Corp rallied by 4.56%, which is the most impressive outcome on the S&P.

American stocks keep diving

Read at: http://bit.ly/2SUEUT7

5 important things this week will bring us!

11.03.2019

US retail sales and core retail sales (Mon, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – According to analysts, the level of retail sales will remain the same. At the same time, its core level (excluding automobiles) is forecast to advance by 0.4%. Higher-than-expected figures will support the USD.

British GDP and manufacturing production (Tue, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT) time) – Both of the indicators are anticipated to rise by 0.2%. If the actual levels of indicators are higher, the British pound will get positive momentum.

US CPI and core CPI (Tue, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – Here, we also anticipate the advance of 0.2% for both headline and core indicators. The greater levels will be appreciated by the USD bulls.

US core durable goods orders and PPI (Wed, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The level of core durable goods orders is going to rise by 0.1%, according to forecasts. The forecast for the producer price index is also positive and expected to increase by 0.2%. Let's see if the actual data will make the USD rise.

BOJ monetary policy statement (Fri, tentative) – The most dovish central bank will keep its interest rate unchanged at -0.10%. Moreover, the BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned the further easing of its monetary policy if it's needed. Any unexpected hawkish hints will support the JPY.

Hot topics:

It’s all about Brexit: the British Prime Minister Theresa May is going to face another vote tomorrow at the Parliament. The hopes of backing the current Brexit deal on time are fading, as Theresa May rejected the latest offer from the European Union during this weekend. The forecasts for tomorrow’s vote are not optimistic. According to the latest news, the British prime minister plans to change tomorrow’s vote from meaningful to the provisional. This will provide her an opportunity to propose further changes to the deal. According to the current scenario, if the British PM faces the defeat tomorrow, next day, on March 13, the British lawmakers will vote on a no-deal. If that vote is also rejected, the Parliament will vote on the extension of Brexit deadline on Thursday. Any uncertainties will be hurtful for the GBP during these days. On the other hand, positive news or the Brexit delay will push the GBP up.

The release of Chinese retail sales and industrial production data on Thursday may determine the market sentiment. Latest releases for China raised concerns on the possible slowdown of the second economy in the world. If the data is disappointing, it will result in risk-aversion.

On Friday, lawmakers will vote on a foreign investment law, which includes measures to protect the intellectual property of foreign companies in an effort to address the US concerns in the trade deal with China.

Gold ascends on Brexit jitters

More at: http://bit.ly/2TvR89S

12.03.2019

On Tuesday, gold rallied because uncertainty over the latest developments in Britain’s departure from the EU backed safe haven demand and traders looked ahead for American inflation data to underpin the Fed’s pledge to remain on hold.

On the Comex exchange, April delivery gold futures went up by 0.41% concluding the trading session at $1,296.35 a troy ounce.

Many experts are assured that Theresa May will fail to achieve the votes required to underpin her withdrawal pact.

If UK lawmakers reject May's agreement, she has pledged a vote on Wednesday on whether to depart from the EU without a deal and, if they vote down it, then there will be a vote for a limited delay to Brexit.

On Tuesday, the uncertainty stimulated demand for the yellow metal even as volatility reigned in the Forex market.

As markets closely watch developments, traders will wait for American inflation data expected to show up at 8:30 AM ET.

Market experts actually expect American consumer prices to match February’s surge, underlining the case for the US major financial institution to stick with its current wait-and-see stance.

Financial markets were still skeptical that the Federal Reserve could proceed with its rate lift in 2019, especially after the employment report revealed poor job creation in February. By the way, Fed fund futures exclude such a move and place the likelihood at above 10% that the next move would be a cut.

Apparently, the pause in policy tightening is beneficial for the yellow metal because it decreases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

In addition to this, silver futures managed to rally by about 0.97% hitting $15.4223 a troy ounce.

Palladium surged by 1.28% showing $1,500.90.

As for copper, this metal inched up by up to 1.10% ending up with $2.933 a pound.

Chart patterns

http://bit.ly/2UHMbaR

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A chance to trade the Japanese currency

Read at: http://bit.ly/2ObI3xn

14.03.2019

The Bank of Japan will make its monetary policy statement and announce the interest rate on March 15. The bank won’t change its interest rate, but the comments by the bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda may shake the JPY. During the previous month, the BOJ governor threw hints on further monetary policy easing. This dovish outlook made the JPY suffer. Let’s see where the central bank will drive its currency.

• If the BOJ is hawkish, the JPY will move up;

• If the BOJ is dovish, the JPY will move down.