Thread: Forex daily News FBS

5 important events this week will bring us!

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22.07.2019

French and German flash services PMI, German flash manufacturing PMI (Wed, 10:15 MT and 10:30 MT (7:15 GMT and 7:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, French flash services PMI will decline to 52.7, while German data will show mixed results with flash manufacturing PMI increasing to 45.1 and flash services PMI falling to 55.3 points. Higher figures will support the EUR.

Speech by the RBA governor Philip Lowe (Thu, 6:05 MT (3:05 GMT)) – If the head of the bank is hawkish, the AUD will rise.

ECB monetary policy statement (Thu, 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT)) – We will wait for more hints on the possible easing by the European central bank. If they are confirmed, the EUR may suffer. Also, pay attention to the press conference with the ECB president Mario Draghi at 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time. His comments may show us a clearer picture of the future steps by the bank.

US core durable goods orders (Thu, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts forecast an increase by 0.2%. If the actual level of indicator is greater, the USD will go up.

US advance GDP (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – The GDP growth for the US is expected to advance by 1.8%. A higher level will be good for the USD bulls.

Hot news:

Great Britain is awaiting the leadership voting contest for the Conservative party on Tuesday. The outcome will determine the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. The members of the party will choose between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. Most analysts see Mr. Johnson, the hard-Brexit follower, taking the office. Some ministers do not support his candidature and resign ahead of the elections’ outcome. The political uncertainties within the leading party weaken the British pound. It is recommended to follow the headlines, as more negative news puts additional pressure on the GBP. The outcome of the contest will be announced after the 19:00 MT (16:00 GMT) time.

The oil prices surged after the British tanker was seized by the Iranian military forces over the weekend. The conflict in the Middle East is what driving crude’s prices now.

According to the Chinese press, Chinese companies started to seek for new purchases of US agricultural products. Some of the analysists see this news as the positive step towards the restart of the US-China trade talks.

Will the ECB president change his tone?

More at: http://bit.ly/30PbIBs

23.07.2019

The European Central Bank will publish its monetary policy statement and announce the official rate on July 25, at 14:45 MT time. After that, the ECB president Mario Draghi will conduct a press conference at 15:30 MT time. We anticipate no changes to the current interest rate, which is held at 0%. However, the ECB president Mario Draghi may throw hints on the possible changes to the current monetary policy and provide comments on the current economic outlook. Last time, Mr. Draghi suggested that the European economy needed additional stimulus for better conditions. His dovish comments pulled the euro lower. If the ECB president changes his tone this time, the situation will be different.

• If the ECB is hawkish, the euro will rise;

• If the ECB is dovish, the euro will fall.

Market updates on July 24

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/30UqKWz

24.07.2019

EUR/USD weakened on the lower-than-expected PMIs. The data disappointed with French flash services PMI falling to 52.2 points (vs. expected 52.7 points) and German flash manufacturing PMI reaching 43.1 points (vs the forecast of 45.1 points). On H4, the pair has tested the support located at the 1.1118-1.1127 levels. If bears pull the pair lower, the next support will lie at the lows of 2017 at 1.1076. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance levels at 1.1159, 1.1166 and 1.1177. It is worth to mention that on the daily chart the pair completed the “Head and Shoulders” pattern.

GBP/USD could not hold the gains after Boris Johnson was announced the next Prime Minister of Great Britain and fell to the support at 1.2427. After the slow start of the trading day, the cable has attempted to recover to the resistance at 1.2455. The next resistance levels lie at 1.2475 and 1.2495. In case of a reversal, the pair will retest the 1.2427 level. After the breakout, pay attention to the support at 1.2399.

According to Westpac, there is a chance for the Reserve bank of Australia to cut its interest rate again in November (earlier, than it was forecast before). The Australian dollar plunges on the news. On H4, the aussie has fallen below the 100-period SMA since the beginning of the day. The first support for AUD/USD will lie at 0.6967. The next one at 0.6957. If the pair goes up, there is a chance that it will test the resistance at 0.6989.

Market updates on July 25

More at: http://bit.ly/32Oq3Qh

25.07.2019

Key events ahead:

Interest rate decision by the Central bank of Turkey – 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT) time

ECB monetary policy statement – 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT) time

ECB press conference – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

US core durable goods orders – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

During the Asian trading session, the Reserve bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe commented that the bank would ease its policy further if demand disappoints. The Australian dollar reacted negatively to his comments and fell lower. On H4, AUD/USD tested the lower border of the long-term ascending trading channel below the 0.6967 level. If bears manage to break this border, the next support will lie at 0.6957. After that pay attention to the 0.6946 level. From the upside, the first significant resistance level lies at 0.6989. The next resistance will be placed at 0.6998.

EUR/USD is consolidating near the support at 1.1127 ahead of the ECB rate decision. There’s a 50% chance of a rate cut, so pay attention to the meeting. If the euro weakens more, the pair will break the support at 1.1127 and test the support at 1.1118 on H4. The dovish ECB will increase the possibility for the pair to fall further to the 1.1076 level. On the other hand, if the central bank is less dovish, the first resistance will lie at 1.1155. The next resistance levels will be placed at 1.1166 and 1.1177.

USD/TRY, in its turn, is awaiting the decision by the Turkish central bank. After the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fired the head of the central bank earlier this month due to his disagreement to make the interest rate lower, now the market anticipates the rate cut decision. The US dollar has become stronger against the Turkish lira as the rate cut worries have been priced in. If the Turkish lira continues to weaken, the pair will break the 5.7048 level and return within the borders of the ascending trading channel. The next resistance will lie at 5.7219. In case of the reversal, the pair will fall below the 5.6887 level. The next support will be placed at 5.6766. (50-period SMA). The break of this level will provoke further fall to the next support at 5.6620.

5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: http://bit.ly/311Egrs

29.07.2019

A monetary policy statement by the Bank of Japan (Tue, Asian session) – The rate changes are not expected, but the BOJ governor may provide comments on the future changes to the current monetary policy. Comments on further easing will make the JPY weaker.

Chinese manufacturing PMI (Wed, 4:00 MT (1:00 GMT) time) - According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance to 49.6. Higher figures will increase the risk-on sentiment in the market.

FOMC statement (Wed, 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time) – The market anticipates the rate cut by 25 basis points from 2.5% to 2.25%. Besides, we need to pay attention to the tone of the Fed chair and the hints on the further steps by the regulator. If Federal Reserve cuts the interest rate, the USD will go down. On the other hand, if the rate changes are postponed, the USD will be supported.

Monetary policy summary by the Bank of England (Thu, 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT)) – The bank won’t change the interest rate, but we will pay attention to the tone of the BOE amid the weak British pound, global easing of other central banks and uncertainties surrounding Brexit.

US employment data (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – As usual, the report will include the level of average hourly earnings, unemployment rate and, of course, non-farm employment change or non-farm payrolls. While average hourly earnings and unemployment rate are expected to remain stable, the level of NFP is forecast to advance by 160 thousand payrolls. Higher figures of NFP and average hourly earnings and lower figures of unemployment rate will push the USD higher.

Hot news

The British pound fell to the lowest levels since 2017 after the British policymakers, such as Dominic Raab and Michael Dove commented about the preparations to the no-deal Brexit. On Monday, British PM Boris Johnson met with the First Minister of Scotland and Scottish Conservatives leader and they did not support the idea to leave the EU without a deal.

The trade talks between the US and China will resume on July 30-31. The key demands of China are the removal of the existing tariffs, a balanced agreement, realistic targets for further trade agreements. At the same time, the US ask for structural reforms to China's economy and the protection of intellectual property rights. As the trade negotiations have stuck after the meeting between Chinese and US presidents in Osaka during G20, we may only wonder whether the upcoming round of negotiations will succeed.

The British pound is awaiting the BOE meeting

Check the calendar: http://bit.ly/2ZgEQRE

30.07.2019

The monetary policy summary by the Bank of England will be out on August 1, at 14:00 MT time.

We do not anticipate any changes to the interest rate this time, but the Bank of England may throw some hints on the further steps regarding its monetary policy. Despite the risks that the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson will leave the EU without a deal, the bank seems to stick to its plan to raise interest rates gradually for now. Will the policymakers change their tone to more dovish amid the trend of global easing?

• If the BOE is hawkish, the GBP will rise.

• If the BOE is dovish, the GBP will fall.

The US-China trade war escalates

Check at: http://bit.ly/2Yhyjtw

02.08.2019

Good Friday, traders! Let's start with the updates from the US-China trade war's front.
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on the remaining 300 billion dollars of goods and products since September 1. China, in its turn, said about countermeasures needed as a response to this unexpected move. As a result, the risk-weighted assets dropped significantly.

The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have seen huge moves to the downside. AUD/USD is currently trading at the lowest levels since January's flash crash.

Safe-haven Japanese yen has strengthened. USD/JPY has been targeting support from June 25 at 106.76.

USD/CNH has risen to the highest levels since last November. The pair is currently trading at 6.9718.

Gold retested its recent highs at $1,448.

As for exotic currency pairs, USD/MXN and the USD/ZAR jumped higher, while USD/BRL gapped up above the 50-day SMA since the start of today's trading session.

Market updates on August 1

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2OzTbrn

01.08.2019

Key events ahead:

Monetary policy summary by the BOE, BOE inflation report – 14:00 MT time

ISM manufacturing PMI for the US – 17:00 MT time

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 25 basis points. The market had fully priced in this decision and expected more hints on the further path of the interest rate’s cut. However, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell failed to be as dovish as the market wanted him to be. The statement was mostly the same as the previous one, and the USD rose higher. EUR/USD has tested the support at 1.1033. If this level is broken, the pair will slide lower to the 1.0982 level. If the USD weakens, the pair will have a chance to rise above the 1.1056 level. The next resistance will lie at 1.1137. After that, pay attention to the 1.1155 level.

The British pound has tested fresh lows at the 1.2108 level and is awaiting the bank of England to determine the further direction for the cable. If the current support is broken, the next level will lie at 1.2017. If the central bank supports the pound, GBP/USD may rise to the 1.2177 level. The next resistance will be placed at 1.2248. Technically, the price formed a bullish divergence with MACD on H4, which may signal a rebound soon.

USD/JPY has risen after the Fed decision. After the test of the 109.31 level, the pair fell to the support at 109.08. If the pair continues to weaken, the next support will be placed at 108.71. After that, pay attention to the levels at 108.51-108.45, as there will be high chances of reaching these levels. From the upside, if bulls retest the 109.31 level, the next resistance will lie at 109.61.

The Brazilian central bank unexpectedly cut its interest rate to the record low of 6% since 1986. The rate cut pushed USD/BRL higher above the 50-period SMA on H4 to the resistance at 3.8270. The next resistance will lie at 3.8470. From the downside, pay attention to 3.7604 and 3.7317 level.

Market updates on July 31: the Fed decision

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2YD2lHr

31.07.2019

Key events ahead:

ADP Non-farm employment change for the US – 15:15 MT (12:15 GMT) time

Canadian GDP – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

FOMC statement – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time

FOMC press conference – 21:30 MT (18:30 GMT) time

The market is trading cautiously ahead of the Fed monetary policy statement at 21:00 MT time. On H4, EUR/USD is consolidating between the resistance at 1.1158 and the support at 1.1132. If the rate cut happens today, the USD will weaken. In that case, the break of the 1.1158 level will happen and the next resistance level will lie at 1.1174. After that, pay attention to the 1.1198 resistance level. If the Fed chair surprises the market with no changes to the interest rate, the pair will slide below the 1.1132 level to the next support at 1.1116. If this level is broken, the euro will fall towards the 1.1086 level. If we look at MACD we can see that it is placed closed to the 0 level, which signals a possible reversal.

GBP/USD stopped falling and started to wait for the Fed to determine its further direction. If the Fed is dovish, the cable may break the 1.2168 level and target the next resistance at 1.2197. After that, bulls may push the pair higher to the 1.2225 level. In the case of the Alternative scenario, GBP/USD will move below the support at 1.2145. The next support will lie at 1.2118. If the pair manages to overcome this level, the further fall to the 1.2017 level may happen on the fears of a no-deal Brexit.

USD/JPY has been trading sideways, too. After the end of a new round of US-China trade negotiations, Chinese policymakers said that the US needs to show enough sincerity in reaching a deal. The news pulled the USD/JPY pair lower during the Asian trading session. Now all eyes are on the Fed decision. If the rate cut is confirmed, the pair will fall below the 108.51 level. The next support will lie at 108.45. After that, the pair may reach the 108.33 level. From the upside, pay attention to the upper border of the consolidation range at 108.64-108.7. The next key level for bulls lies at 108.8.

The FOMC statement will show whether the uptrend for gold will continue. On H4, the yellow metal has been knocking the resistance at $1,433. If it’s broken, the next resistance level will lie at $1,438. After that, the price for gold may reach $1,448 level. In case of the supported US dollar, the levels at $1,428, $1,424 (50-period SMA) and $1,420 will be in focus.

Market updates on August 5

More at: http://bit.ly/2M0xqPz

05.08.2019

Key events ahead:

American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time

The weekend was hurtful for the market sentiment with the updates from the Chinese side. While Hong-Kong press informed that China questioned the chance of trade talks' continuation with the US, Beijing asked State buyers to halt US agricultural imports. It resulted in the risk aversion in the markets.

USD/CNH has risen to the record highs above the 7th level and created resistance at 7.1050. If the Chinese yuan is supported, the first key level will lie at 6.9680. After that, pay attention to the next support levels at 6.9360 and 6.9270.

As risk-off sentiment intensified, gold moved higher to the resistance at $1,473 on H4. In case of reversal, pay attention to the $1,448, $1,436 and $1,421 (100 and 50 period SMA)

USD/JPY jumped to the lowest levels since January's flash crash. The first support for the pair lies at 105.65. After that, pay attention to the 105.3 level. If bulls take over the market the first resistance will lie at 107.45. After the break of this level, reaching the resistance at 107.79 will be possible.