Thread: Forex daily News FBS

News to trade on November 13

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13.11.2018

The British quarterly average earnings report was released today at 11:30 MT time. It reached 3% in this quarter as well as it was expected. It gave a positive momentum for the British pound. Hopes that the British Prime Minister Theresa May will present a draft of a workable Brexit deal by the November’s EU summit exist but still not clear.

Yesterday the strong US dollar in a combination with never-ending Brexit tensions made the cable form a gap and test the support at 1.2817. Today’s release helped the British pound to test the resistance at 1.2896. However, more negative news on Brexit can push the pair below 1.2817.

Italy is expected to resubmit its unfortunate budget today. Last month the European Commission rejected its budget, due to the lack of deficit control. However, Italy made very little changes to it. So, if the European Commission changes its mind today, watch EUR/USD turns bid.

As we can see from the chart, yesterday a strong US dollar pushed the pair below the psychological level at 1.13 and made it fall below the next support at 1.1265. A series of lower highs created a bearish scenario for the pair. If the Italian budget to be approved today, the pair will have a chance to cross 1.1265. The next resistance lies at 1.13. In case of more uncertainties, the next support lies at 1.1197.

During the Asian session, Chinese trade war negotiator announced his plans on visiting the US for trade talks. He attempts to ease rising trade tensions ahead of a meeting of Chinese president Xi and US president Trump.

As a result, the Australian dollar bounced from the support at 0.7171 and is heading towards the resistance at 0.7237. If the bullish pressure continues, the aussie can stick above 0.7237. The strong USD can pull the pair below the support at 0.7171. The next support for the pair lies at 0.7117.


As for NZD/USD, the pair is testing the resistance at 0.6726. The next resistance lies at 0.6825. If the USD is strong, the pair can fall downwards to the support at 100-day MA at 0.6658.

Positive update of the trade negotiations increased the risk-on sentiment across the Asian equity markets. That is why USD/JPY is targeting the resistance at 114.268. The bullish pressure will help the pair to stick above 114.268. If the USD is weak, the pair will fall below the support at 113.609.

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News to trade on November 14

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14.11.2018

The British pound will be in focus today. At first, today's CPI release increased by a lower-than-expected level of +0.1%.

After that, Theresa May is scheduled to meet with her cabinet to discuss the draft Brexit agreement at 16:00 MT time. If the Cabinet agrees, the next step will be to get the approval at the House of Commons. For now, the DUP from Northern Ireland and the Labour leadership expressed their negative opinions. However, Theresa May thinks the fear of a no-deal Brexit can drive Conservatives and Labor party to support the agreement.

According to newspapers, the UK Cabinet Ministers Raab, Hunt, Javid, Gove, and Cox said they would agree on the draft Brexit paper.

Up to now, Brexit headlines are driving the pair.

Higher-than-expected CPI data can give a positive momentum to GBP/USD and help it to cross 50-day MA and 100-day MA and test the resistance at 1.3036. If the Brexit agreement will be approved, the cable will stick above 1.3036. However, if more uncertainties take over the market, the pair will fall below the 1.2896 support.

CPI of the US is also gaining attention today at 15:30 MT. Analysts expect it to rise by 0.3% in October. As for the core CPI, it is forecast to increase by 0.2%. Comments by Chinese president Xi ahead of his meeting with President Trump at G20 and positive mood across the equity markets weakened the US Dollar, however, the inflation data can support the currency.

On the daily chart of the US Dollar index, the index is trading lower than yesterday. If CPI is higher than expected, the index can rise above the resistance at 97.21. Weak CPI data and risk-on sentiment among traders can pull it down towards the 96.35 support.

Yesterday the Italian government kept the budget targets for deficit and GDP for 2019 unchanged. In response, the European Commission may initiate the immoderate deficit procedure. If the USD gains after the CPI release, EUR/USD will fall below the support at 1.1265. If the bearish pressure for the pair weakens, the pair will stick above the resistance at 1.13.

In its latest monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut the demand forecasts for the OPEC crude oil for 2019. Up to now, WTI is trading at November 2017 levels, testing the resistance at $56.26. If the easing of the sanctions continues, WTI can fall towards the next support at $53.25

Have a successful trading!

Bid and Ask price. Spread

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There are 2 types of currency prices at Forex are Bid and Ask. The price we pay to buy the pair is called Ask. It is always slightly above the market price. The price, at which we sell the pair on Forex, is called Bid. It is always slightly below the market price.

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Japanese exports rebound in October

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16.11.2018

In October, Japan's exports rebounded following dives provoked by a series of natural disasters. That’s what a Reuters survey disclosed on Friday. However, fears over global demand as well as the US-China trade conflict still pressure.

Exports were anticipated to leap by 9% in October from 2017. That’s the fastest tempo of gain since January, according to the interview of 16 financial analysts. In September, they dived by 1.3%.

As for imports, they rallied by 14.5% from 2017, providing a trade deficit of up to 70 billion yen.

Financial analysts told that the overall tempo pace of expansion in global trade is currently decelerating and Japan’s exports surge has appeared to be quite sluggish. However, they’re assured that adverse impacts from natural disasters diminished.

Notwithstanding the fact the American economy is firm enough, but the economies in other areas are slumping, thus impacting global trade, including Japan's exports.

The finance ministry is expected to uncover the trade data at 8:50 a.m. on November 19.

In addition to this, the survey also disclosed that the nationwide core consumer price index without fresh food prices, but with fuel costs managed to head north by up to 1% in October from 2017. That’s a steady outcome from September.

Besides this, financial analysts added that leaps in crude prices till September probably assisted to ramp up costs of energy-related items, although those weren’t firm enough to have the core CPI underpinned.

Furthermore, the Japanese government is expected to uncover the CPI data on November 22 at 8:30 a.m.

As a matter of fact, Japan's economy headed south more than anticipated in the third quarter, affected by natural disasters as well as a dive in exports. That’s a worrying sign that trade protectionism is starting to heavily impact overseas demand.

5 things you need to know this week

More at: http://bit.ly/2QeKqmx

19.11.2018

Reserve bank of Australia monetary policy meeting minutes (Tue, 2:30 MT (00:30 GMT)) – the central bank is anticipated to repeat its positive economic forecasts, at the same time being cautious about the further steps in monetary policy.

Speech by the Bank of Japan governor Kuroda (Tue, 5:30 MT (3:30 GMT)) – On Monday the Japanese governor Haruhiko Kuroda said about the good conditions of the economy. BOJ will continue to conduct its ultra-loose monetary policy, according to his words. He mentioned the declining profits of regional banks as one of the risks of destabilizing the financial system. We will see, how his speech in Tokyo on Tuesday can affect the Japanese currency.

British inflation report hearings (Tue, 12:00 MT (10 GMT)) – the Governor of the Bank of England and the monetary policy committee are scheduled to present the inflation report to the Parliament.

US Core durable goods orders m/m (Wed, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) – the indicator is expected to rise by 0.4%. It represents the change in the total value of new purchase orders for durable goods, excluding transportation items.

Canadian CPI and core retail sales m/m (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – Last months' digits for both of the indicators disappointed the investors. They fell by 0.4% (vs. expected rise of +0.1%). The forecasts have not been released yet, but we are awaiting them closer to the release. If this month's data is higher than the expectations, the Canadian dollar can gain.

Hot topics:

US vice president Mike Pence fueled the tensions between the US and China during the APEC talks in Papua New Guinea. He warned APEC nations against taking Chinese loans. At the same time, Chinese president Xi expressed his negative opinion on US tariffs. The disagreement on WTO reforms led countries to failure on reaching a consensus on the final statement after two days of speaking. As for the US and China, this weekend added doubts on reaching a further deal during the meeting of US president Trump and Xi Jimping at the G20 Summit.

Brexit news keeps attracting the attention of the market. For now, Theresa May received 42 votes of no-confidence. If this number reaches 48, the possibility for May to stay as a leader of the party and the prime minister will decline. In addition, Michel Barnier suggested prolonging a transition period for Great Britain to December 2022. We anticipate the special EU summit on November 25 as a date for discussing the deal between sides.

Oil fell after the comments made by Iranian president Rouhani. He noted that the US failed with sanctions. Iran will continue to supply oil to other nations.

The European Commission is expected to deliver its response to the proposal of the revised Italian budget on Wednesday. Earlier, Italy left its deficit target unchanged at 2.4 percent in 2019. Future uncertainties can shake the euro.

Have a successful week of trading!

News to trade on November 20

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20.11.2018

The British pound started to recover yesterday after Theresa May’s comments on Brexit during the CBI conference. In addition, the rumors on submitting the no-confidence vote in her leadership started to fade after ministers failed to reach the target of 48 letters. Today, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney testified the inflation report to the parliament. According to his words, BOE is not going to provide additional analysis of a no-deal Brexit scenario and look at a scenario related to the withdrawal agreement. In addition, BOE policymaker Michael Saunders commented on slowing economic conditions due to Brexit and announced the gradual tightening of the policy. The mixed comments resulted in GBP/USD trading sideways during the day. If there is more positive news on Brexit, the British pound can stick above the resistance at 1.2874. Dovish comments and negative news will move the pair down to the support at 1.2677.

OPEC-Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will have a meeting later today. Earlier, The International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Faith Birol said the oil prices are entering the time of uncertainties. More comments from OPEC members can shake the oil market.

Crude is trading sideways while the comments from leaders on oil supply keep affecting the market. If the comments during the OPEC meetings are related to the reduction of oil production, Brent can rise towards the resistance at 67.86. Otherwise, it will fall downwards to the support at 63.85.

As for WTI, the uncertainties on the market yesterday formed a hanging man candlestick. It demonstrates the strong resistance at 57.48. The cut of the production can help WTI to stick above 57.48. More comments on unsuccessful US sanctions will make WTI drop towards 53.69.

Yesterday, International Monetary fund warned about the risks in the Australian economy. The key topics included the path of lower interest rates by RBA, slowing in the housing market and risks from trade tensions. In addition, the RBA announced the possible rate hike during the next meeting. However, it did not have a major effect on the AUD, as the risk-off sentiment across the technical stocks’ holders drove the aussie below the central pivot at 0.7237. Today, AUD/USD has tested the 50-day MA. If the risk-off sentiment escalates, the support for the AUD/USD lies at 0.7216. Otherwise, it will rise upwards to the resistance at 0.7390. In addition, the trade tensions between the US and China keep being the market mover. That’s why this news may affect the Australian currency.

The New Zealand dollar was supported today by the stronger milk production data. The trade tensions between the US and China will add a downside momentum to NZD/USD. In that case, it will fall towards the support at 0.6820. Otherwise, the first resistance lies at 200-day MA at 0.6882.

The main factors that affecting EUR/USD today are the anticipation of the response to the proposal of the revised Italian budget tomorrow. Italy's deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio suggested the further negotiations on the budget solution with EU authorities without getting rid of main measures in the budget. For now, the spread between Italian and German 10-year bond yields keeps rising. As a result, the EUR has been falling today. If the spread increases, EUR/USD will drown to the support at 1.1350. However, if the USD weakens, it will have the pair to get back its gains. In that case, the resistance lies at 1.1451.

News to trade on November 21

Candles at: http://bit.ly/2Qe2WLq

21.11.2018

The US dollar index fell from the resistance at 96.69 ahead of the European session.

The release of core durable goods orders today at 15:30 MT time can impact on the further movement of the USD. Analysts expect it to increase by 0.4%. If the actual data outperforms the forecast, it will lift the greenback higher. In that case, the US Dollar index will stick above the 96.69 resistance. The next resistance for the index lies at 97.13. If the actual digits disappoint the market, the USD index will slide towards the support at 95.88.

The risk-off sentiment across the Asian equity markets has continued today amid the further declines on Wall Street. Despite that fact, the Antipodeans started bid on Wednesday after the massive falls yesterday. The weak US dollar can help the aussie to stick above the resistance at 0.7250 (100-day MA). However, the negative news on future negotiations between the US and China can have a negative effect on AUD/USD. For instance, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer criticized the trade practices of China, calling them "market-distorting". Further negative news on the trade war ahead of the meeting of the Chinese president Xi and US president Trump in a couple of weeks, as well as the stronger US Dollar, can pull the Australian dollar below the support at 0.7216. The next key level for AUD/USD lies at 50-day MA which acts as a support at 0.7170.

NZD/USD follows a similar scenario. The bullish US Dollar index and negative news on trade negotiations will move the pair down to the support at 0.6756. In case of the increased risk-on sentiment, the kiwi will stick above the resistance at 0.6820. The next resistance is situated at 200-day MA at 0.6882.

What about the European session?

At first, we anticipate the European Commission to make a decision on the revised Italian budget at 13:00 MT time. For now, the unchanged deficit targets in the budget may trigger worries, as Italy is in breach of the EU law. According to European sources, the public debt cannot be higher than 60% of GDP. However, Italy keeps being skeptical and says the expansionary measures are needed to support the whole European economy. If the European Commission disapproves the proposal, it will have a negative effect on the EUR. EUR/USD will likely to fall below the support at 1.1350. If the pair extends falls, the next support lies at 1.1280. However, if the budget targets are successfully renegotiated, EUR/USD will rise towards the resistance at 1.1487.

As for GBP/USD, the British Prime Minister Theresa May is scheduled to meet with the European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker at 18:30 MT time ahead of the EU summit on November 25 where the official version of the Withdrawal Agreement to be presented. Yesterday GBP/USD fell amid the new uncertaintes. It demanded the Madrid's veto over Gibraltar's future status. Otherwise, it will vote against a deal. However, a single country cannot have a major influence on blocking the agreement. It is worth to mention, Gibraltar has been a major point of contention in British-Spanish relations.

If the British pound is supported by the positive Brexit news, it will go upwards to face the 1.2874 resistance. Further uncertainty will drive the cable down to the support at 1.2677.

The news reported the Saudi Arabian oil production surged to a record high in early November.

In addition, today the Iraq Deputy oil minister announced the OPEC will meet to stabilize the crude's prices and supply. Tomorrow they will meet to discuss the oil output cuts.

WTI was slightly lifted by the news. Yesterday it fell below the pivot support at 53.69. News on production cut will help WTI to rise above 53.69 and move towards the resistance at 57.48. If more news on the rising oil supply is published, the further falls will drive the oil price below the 53.69 level. The next support is placed at 50.97 pivot.

Brent fell below the 63.85 level yesterday. Comments on controlling the oil supply will help Brent to stick above the resistance at 63.85. Otherwise, it will fall downwards to the support at 60.65.

News to trade on November 22

Check the candlesticks: http://bit.ly/2DzViVf

22.11.2018

Please, note!

On November 22nd and 23rd due to Thanksgiving celebration, the trading schedule for metals and American futures will be changed.

On November 22nd:

•Trading for XAUUSD, XAGUSD, Palladium, Platinum will be closed at 20:00 MT;

•Trading for WTI, BRENT will be closed at 19:45 MT

On November 23rd:

•Trading for XAUUSD, XAGUSD, Palladium, Platinum will be closed at 20:45 MT

•Trading for WTI, BRENT will be closed at 20:30 MT

Please, keep these changes in mind when planning your trading sessions. Do not hesitate to contact the FBS Support team in case you have any questions.

Yesterday, the European Commission rejected the proposed Italian budget. Italian authorities including deputy's Prime Minister Matteo Salvini are planning future negotiations on this topic. Positive news can help the EUR to gain towards the resistance at 1.1487. If the uncertainties appear, EUR/USD will fall to the support at 1.1350.

The EU and the UK negotiators have agreed on draft Brexit, according to today's news. Now the future of this agreement depends on the decision of 27 EU members. This is a good news ahead of the EU Summit on November 25. The British PM Theresa May will try to finalize the Brexit agreement before Sunday's summit. Today, she is expected to make her speech to parliament at 16:30 MT (14:30 GMT) time.The GBP was supported heavily by the news, jumping above the resistance at the central pivot at 1.2874 and testing the 1.29 level. The next resistance for the cable lies at 1.3026. In case, of uncertainties, the British pound can fall towards the support at 1.2677.

During the Asian session, the NDZ/USD sellers pulled the New Zealand dollar, making it the biggest loser during the Thanksgiving holidays. The kiwi propped below the support at the central pivot at 0.6820. The next support lies at 0.6756. If the risk-on sentiment across the equity markets stabilizes, NZD/USD will rise towards the resistance at 0.6882 (200-day MA).

As for the AUD, the economists at ANZ pushed their expectations for a rate hike to August 2020. It drove the Australian dollar to test the support at 100-day MA at 0.7251. If the bearish pressure increases, AUD/USD can fall towards the next support at 0.7216. The risk-on sentiment can help the aussie to stick above 0.7277.

Uncovering Gann indicators

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Have you ever heard about one of the most mysterious and successful traders of all times – William Gann? He is well-known for using geometry, astrology and ancient mathematic to predict the movement of quotes in the financial markets. He was brought up in an impoverished extended family.

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