Thread: Forex daily News FBS

Important indicators may push the GBP up

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06.08.2019

Great Britain will release the level of GDP growth and manufacturing production on August 9, at 11:30 MT time.

The level of GDP growth measures the economic activity of a country. Last time it advanced by 0.5%, which was in line with the forecast. Analysts expect the indicator to remain at the same level this time. As for manufacturing production, which represents the value of output produced by manufacturers, it increased by the lower-than-expected 1.4% (vs. the forecast of +2.2%). According to the forecasts, the indicator will decline by 0.1% during Friday's release.

• If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the GBP will strengthen;

• If the actual figures are lower than the forecasts, the GBP will weaken.

Market updates on August 7

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2MJUPnZ

07.08.2019

Key events ahead:

The speech by the FOMC member Evans – 16:30 MT time

During the RBNZ meeting, the regulator cut its interest rate by 50 basis points (vs. 25 bpt expected). As a result, the New Zealand dollar fell to the lowest levels in 3 years. On H4, the support levels for kiwi lie at 0.6367-0.6377. If these levels are broken, the further fall will be limited by the 0.6296 level. At the moment NZD/USD is trying to rebound towards the resistance at 0.6451. Technically, RSI is about to leave the oversold zone, which may provide a buying opportunity.

Gold has risen even more to its highest levels since 2012 on global fears surrounding trade war between the US and China and comments on the launch of missiles by North Korea. On H4, the price for the yellow metal is trading above the $1,480 level. The next resistance for gold will be placed at $1,515. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the support level at $1,446. If it is broken, the next support will lie at $1,412. RSI is looking up, which means that the rise may continue.

AUD/USD fell to the 10-year low, as investors are afraid that the Reserve Bank of Australia will follow the path of its antipodean colleague. On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD tested the 0.6676 level below the border of the downward trading channel but bounced back within the borders. If the aussie recovers more, the first resistance will lie at 0.6778. After the breakout, pay attention to the 0.68 and 0.6819 levels. On the other hand, strong bears may pull the pair down once again and try to break the 0,6676 level with the following test of the 0.6622 level.

Market updates on August 8

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08.08.2019

During the Asian trading session, the People's Bank of China set the reference rate for USD/CNY at 7.0039. This is the highest level in a decade, but not as high as analysts expected it to be. As a result, USD/CNH fell towards the support at 7.0650 right after the test of the resistance at 7.0977 level. If bears continue to pull the pair down, the current support may be broken, and the next one will lie at 7.0420. In case of a less risky environment, the pair will retest the 7.0977 level.

USD/JPY has been consolidating in the 106-106.27 range after the bullish surge towards the 106.27 level. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance levels at 106.63 and 107.05. On the other hand, if bears take control over the market, the 106 level may be broken and the next support will lie at 105.52. After that, keep an eye on the 105.3 level.

AUD/USD has risen on the softer risk sentiment. After the crossover of the price with the 0.6772 level (23.6% Fibo) on H4, bulls will have a chance to push the pair higher to the 0.68-0.6819 support levels. In case of risk aversion, the support at 0.6752 may be broken and the retest of the 0.6676 level may be possible.

Market updates on August 12

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2Tqt98L

12.08.2019

Key events:

Speech by RBA Assistant Governor Kent – 23:00 MT (20:00 GMT) time

During the Asian trading session, the People’s Bank of China once again set its reference rate for USD/CNY at 7.0211 (lower than expected). The USD/CNH pair inched lower on that announcement, but then immediately rose back to the resistance at 7.1080. At the moment the pair is testing the highs above this resistance level. In case of the stronger yuan, watch the levels at 7.0880 and 7.0650.

After the crucial test of the 1.2015 level, GBP/USD has moved higher towards the resistance at 1.2084. If this level is broken, pay attention to the 50-period SMA, which lies at 1.2145. From the downside, watch for the retest of the 1.2015 level. After that, the further fall will be limited by 1.1993.

USD/JPY has been moving down. On H4, the price is forming the descending triangle and is looking forward to the test of the 105.04 level. The next support will lie at 104.73. From the upside, pay attention to the 105.7 level. If bulls manage to break it, there is a chance of the rise towards the 106.22 level.

Market updates on August 13

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13.08.2019

British average earnings index – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT) time

US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

EUR/USD has continued to consolidate between the resistance levels at 1.1210-1.1223 and strong support at 1.1177. Today's release may bring volatility to the pair. If the USD gets stronger, the 1.1177 level may be broken and the next key level will be placed at the crossover of 50- and 100- period SMA at 1.1162. The next support will lie at 1.1147. Otherwise, if the pair manages to overcome the 1.1210-1.1223 range and sticks above the 200-period SMA, the next resistance will lie at 1.1240.

GBP/USD rose yesterday, but the further upward movement was limited by the upper border of the descending formation at 1.2106. The key levels from the downside lie at 1.2015 and 1.1993. If the GBP is supported, the retest of the 1.2106 level will be possible. The next resistance for the cable lies at 1.2145.

Gold inched higher on global tensions and uncertainties. The yellow metal has jumped above the $1,510 level and is moving up towards the $1,544 level. In case of softer risk sentiment, gold will slide back below the $1,510 level. The next support will lie at $1,495.

Now let’s look at the emerging markets. During the Asian trading session, Singapore’s GDP growth for the second quarter fell by 3.3%. Despite that, the Monetary Authority of Singapore does not plan to change its schedule of meetings until October. As a result, USD/SGD broke to its highest levels since 2017. At the moment, the pair is testing the resistance at 1.3885. The next key level will lie at 1.3910. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the support levels at 1.3859 and 1.3844.

Market updates on August 15

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15.08.2019

US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Philly Fed manufacturing index for the US – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

The Australian dollar was supported today by the upbeat jobs data for Australia. The indicator increased by 41.1 thousand jobs (vs the forecast of 14.2 thousand). The aussie rose above the 50-period SMA towards the 0.6783 level, but failed to stick near its highs on the revised forecasts of the upcoming RBA’s rate cuts and retested the 50-period SMA. If the aussie weakens, the pair may fall to the 0.6746-0.6736 levels. After the breakout of this range, the pair may retest the 0.6677 level. If the Australian dollar sticks above the 50-period SMA, the chance of the retest of 0.6783 level will increase. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 0.6799.

EUR/USD is awaiting the release of the US indicators. The pair is trading with low volatility on H4. Pay attention to the 1.1150, 1.1157 (100-period SMA) and 1.1166 levels, which may be reached if the releases disappoint the market. From the downside, the key levels will lie at 1.1142, 1.1133 and 1.1116.

USD/JPY spiked towards the 106.74 level, but then immediately moved down to the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. At the moment of writing the pair has been testing the strong support at 105.8 on H4. In case of a risk-off situation, pay attention to the next support level at 105.52. If the USD is supported, the 106.32-106.22 levels will be in focus.

Market updates on August 14

more at: http://bit.ly/31EoXVW

14.08.2019

Key events ahead:

British CPI – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT) time

Yesterday the US trade representatives had a productive phone call with China, after which Washington announced that it was delaying the 10% tariffs on some of the Chinese goods. China, in its turn, confirmed that the trade talks between the two leading economies were expected to continue in September. The news boosted the risk sentiment and shook the market impressively. USD/JPY tested the 106.95-107.05 highs (the levels remained untouched since August 6) on the news and corrected to the downside facing the 106.31 support level. From the downside, pay attention to the support levels at 105.99 and 105.8. If bulls push the pair higher, it will rise towards the 106.62 level. After the breakout, the next resistance will lie at 106.74. The next key zone for bulls will lie at 106.95-107.05.

GBP/USD has been supported by the higher-than-expected CPI data. If the British pound strengthens more, the cable will break the upper border of the range at 1.2073 and test the resistance at 1.2098. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 1.2145. In case of the pound’s weakness, GBP/USD will slide below the 1.2047 level. The next support will lie at 1.2015.

USD/CNH slid below the 7 level on the softer US-China trade relations. However, after the weaker indicators for China released during the Asian trading session, the pair reversed towards the support-turned-resistance level at 7.0436. Pay attention to the 7.0743 level which will be in focus if risk-off sentiment appears. Alternatively, the support at 7.0066 followed by the 6.9894 level will be in focus.

Despite the better-than-expected wage price index for Australia, AUD/USD has tested the ground below the 50-period SMA. If it continues to fall, the 0.6763 level will be reached. After that, the aussie will be vulnerable to the fall towards the 0.6749 level. If the risk sentiment increases, the test of the resistance level at 0.6799 will be possible. The next one will lie at 0.6817.

5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: http://bit.ly/2Z5bRUK

19.08.2019

Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – According to forecasts, the indicator will advance by 0.1%. Higher figures will be appreciated by the CAD bulls.

FOMC Meeting minutes (Wed, 21:00 MT (19:00 GMT) time) – We will wait for the release, as look for more hints regarding the future rate decisions by the Fed. In case of more hawkish hints, the USD will be supported.

New Zealand’s retail sales (Fri, 1:45 MT (22:45 GMT) time) – We anticipate the level of retail sales to increase by 0.1%. If the actual figures are higher, the NZD will rise.

Canadian core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The indicator is expected to decline by 0.1%. Higher figures will be positive for the CAD.

Speech by the Fed Chair Powell (Fri, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time) – If the Fed Chair sounds hawkish, the USD will go up.

Hot news:

The US plans to postpone restrictions that the Trump administration has imposed on China’s Huawei Technologies Co. It increased the risk-on sentiment in the markets.

Oil prices jumped on the news that Saudi Arabian oil field was attacked by the drone.

On the Brexit front, the government preparations to the no-deal Brexit were leaked. As a result, Jeremy Corbyn plans to bring opposition parties together next week to discuss the prevention of a no-deal Brexit.

Is there a chance for the NZD?

More at: http://bit.ly/2L5ycb1

21.08.2019

New Zealand is going to release the level of quarterly retail sales on August 23, at 1:45 MT time.

The indicator of retail sales shows the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Traders pay attention to it as it is one of the primary measures of consumer spending. During the previous release, the indicator advanced by 0.7%. The figures came out higher than the expectations of 0.6%. Despite that, the NZD weakened.

• If the level of retail sales is greater than expected, the NZD will go up;

• If the level of retail sales is weaker than expected, the NZD will go down.

Market updates on August 22

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/30v597l

22.08.2019

EUR/USD was supported by better-than-expected PMIs for the Eurozone. The pair has been testing the resistance at 1.1106. If this level is broken, we will focus on the next resistance at 1.1114. Next, the bullish pressure may be limited by the 1.1136 level. It is recommended to pay attention to the updates on the situation in Italy, as the political uncertainties there keep being strong. Today the Italian President Sergio Mattarella will meet with the parties in an effort to make a new governing coalition for a country. If the talks fail, the euro may fall down. The first level from the downside lies at 1.1080. After that, it is recommended to pay attention to the 1.1069 level.

While the chance of the no-deal Brexit remains high, the pressure to the British pound intensifies. Today, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the French President Emmanuel Macron are going to meet to discuss the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. The cable is currently trading above the 100-period SMA on H4, close to the resistance line at 1.2140. The next key level will lie at 1.2154. After that the retest of the 1.2174 level seems possible. From the downside, you need to pay attention to the support at 1.2118. If bears pull GBP/USD lower, the next key support will be placed at 1.21 (50-period SMA).

NZD/USD has tested the lowest levels since 2016. On H4, bears tried to pull the pair below the 0.6377 level. If the kiwi continues to weaken against the USD, reaching the support at 0.6339 seems possible. In case of the reversal, pay attention to the 0.6419 level.