Thread: Forex daily News FBS

Market updates on August 23

More at: http://bit.ly/2Zos5nn

23.08.2019

Key events ahead:

Canada’s core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Speech by the Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Symposium – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)

During the Asian trading session, the comments by the Governor of the Reserve bank of New Zealand Adrian Orr supported the New Zealand dollar. He said that the rate cut by 50 basis points reduced the probability of another one soon. On H4, NZD/USD has risen towards the resistance at 0.6391 and corrected. If bears continue to drag the pair down, the first support for it will lie at 0.6363. Alternatively, if the pair retests the 0.6391 level, the next one will lie at 0.6419 (50-period SMA).

EUR/USD is awaiting the speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If he provides hawkish comments on the current situation in the economy and reassures the rate cut expectations, the USD will get stronger. In this case, the 1.1065 level will be broken and bears will try to pull EUR/USD lower towards the next support at 1.1028. If he is dovish, the pair will rise up to the resistance at 1.1088. The next key levels will lie 1.1106-1.1114.

USD/CAD inched higher on the news that the European Union will stop the import of some Canadian products from September. After the test of the 1.3325 level, the pair slid to the support at 1.3311. If the CAD is supported today by higher-than-expected core retail sales, the current support will be broken, and the next support will lie at 1.33. Alternatively, pay attention to the 1.3325 level. In case of a breakout of that level, the next resistance will lie at 1.3338.

Gold may move on the comments by the Fed Chair, too. At the moment it trades in a range between the $1,504 and $1,494 levels. Dovish comments by Mr. Powell may push the price of the yellow metal higher to the $1,504 level. If it is broken, the next resistance will lie close to the 50-period SMA at $1,508. In case of strong bullish pressure, there will be a possibility of reaching the $1,516 level. From the downside, after the breakout of the $1,494 level, the next one will lie at 1,490.

Market updates on August 26

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2U36fVx

26.08.2019

Key events ahead:

US core durable goods orders – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

The escalation of the trade war between the US and China has shaken the markets a lot. On Friday, China announced additional tariffs on $75 billion of American goods, including soybeans, automobiles, and oil. It did not take a long time for US President Donald Trump to respond as the US administration hit back with more tariffs on Chinese imports afterward and called for American companies to exit China's market. The risk-weighted currencies fell after the market opened, but managed to take back their positions on the comments that China wants to resolve the trade dispute with the US.

AUD/USD tested the 0.6688 level but rebounded to the resistance at 0.6760. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance will lie at 0.6776. On the other hand, if the risk sentiment fades again, the pair will retest the 0.6688 level. The next support will lie at 0.6677.

USD/JPY slid below the 104.73 level on H4 but immediately rebounded upwards to the resistance level at 106.03. In case of a breakout of this level, pay attention to the next key resistance at 106.23, which lies close to the crossover of 50- and 100- period SMAs. From the downside, it is recommended to pay attention to the 105.05 level. If the Japanese yen retest it, the chance of the fall to the lowest levels since January's flash crash at 104.73 will increase.

Gold gapped up to its highest levels since 2013. The yellow metal has tested the highs at $1,555. Softer risk sentiment pulled it lower to the support at $1,525. The next key support for the price of gold will be placed at $1,508.8 (50-period SMA). However, as traders remain cautious today, it is recommended to keep an eye on the $1,555 level, which may be retested if risk-off sentiment increases.

USD/CNH jumped to the fresh highs at 7.17 on the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China. If the pair reverses, the first support at 7.0917 will be in focus. Bulls, on the other hand, will be looking for a retest of the 7.17 level.

USD/TRY has risen from 5.7553 to 6.2850 during the flash crash, which occurred at the Asian trading session. It happened due to the Japanese investors who cut risk assets. The price immediately returned close to the 5.8066 level, which currently serves as a resistance for the pair. From the downside, the first support lies at 5.7325.

Market updates on August 28

http://bit.ly/2zuxbnH

28.08.2019

The governor of the Reserve bank of New Zealand made some remarks on keeping the NZD weaker. As a result, NZD/USD inched lower to the 0.6334. The pair has been trading at the lowest level since 2015. If this level is broken, the next support will lie below the lower border of the descending channel at 0.6297. If the pair recovers, the first resistance level will lie at 0.6366. After the break of this level, the resistance at 0.6391 will be in focus.

Brexit news continues to move the pound. Reportedly, the Queen will be asked to prorogue parliament. She is expected to make a speech on that matter on October 14. That means the opposition parties will have a little time to organize. GBP/USD plunged below the 1.2211 level on the news. The next support levels will lie at 1.2171 and 1.2147. From the upside, pay attention to the 1.2293 level, which will be broken in case of a reversal.

After the slide towards the $1,532 level, the price of gold managed to restore its positions. It is currently moving towards the resistance at $1,544. If this level is broken, the retest of $1,555 will be possible. If the risk-on sentiment increases, the price will slide downwards to the support at $1,532. After the breakout, the price will fall as far as the $1,525 level will be reached.

Market updates on September 3

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2jShXEC

03.09.2019

American ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)

The EURUSD pair keeps struggling. On the daily chart, it has already crossed the support at 1.0965 targeting new lows. For intraday trading, we need to consider the H4 chart. The next support is at 1.0934. A break below it will cause a decline to 1.0887. If the actual release of ISM Manufacturing PMI is weaker than the forecast, there is a chance that the fall will be limited. If the pair is able to recover, previous supports will become levels of resistance.


Parliament is due to debate an emergency plan to take control of the legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

On the daily chart of GBPUSD, the pair hit the crucial level of 1.20. Although such indicators as MACD and Awesome Oscillator signal a reversal, the pair has been slowing down. The next support is at 1.1986. If the pair closes below it, we can anticipate a further fall. A rebound will push the pair to 1.2020.

The Australian dollar has been strengthening despite weaker actual reading of retail sales data and luck of hawkish comments by the RBA.

On the daily chart of AUDUSD, the pair rebounded from the support at 0.6689. The pair needs to break above 0.6735 to confirm the recovery. However, Moving Averages continue moving down. It signals a possible continuation of the downtrend. Thus, there are risks of the return to 0.6689.

Market updates on September 4

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2ksCKiu

04.09.2019

Canadian Trade Balance data – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

BOC Rate Statement – 17:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)

On the daily chart of USDCAD, MACD indicator has formed a bearish divergence with the price. It signals the pair is turning down. If we take a look at H4, levels of support are placed at 1.3315, 1.3278 and 1.3251. If the CAD is boosted by the economic data, levels will be reached. However, if the central bank sounds dovish or the actual trade balance data is worse than the forecast, the fall will be limited. Previous supports will become resistances. If the pair stays above 1.3315, the resistances are at 1.3370 and 1.3373.

GBPUSD has strengthened on the Brexit news.

Although the British Parliament started working only yesterday, it managed to affect the British currency.

As the Parliament doesn’t have a lot of time to prevent the no-deal Brexit, today members are supposed to put forward a draft law that would force Mr. Johnson to delay Brexit until January 31, 2020. If the law passes, the Prime Minister will call the general election. Thus, the British currency will continue being highly volatile.

Up to now, the GBPUSD pair has been targeting the resistance at 1.2178. RSI indicator is about to cross the overbought area. However, the pair still has a chance to keep rising. If 1.2178 is broken, the next range of the resistance is 1.2214-1.2240.

If the pair moves down, supports are placed at 1.2117 and 1.2080.

Market updates on September 5

Check more: http://bit.ly/2m2iC7l

05.09.2019

Forex

The British pound keeps gaining on the Brexit updates. The Parliament passed the legislation both to block a hard no-deal Brexit and a general election.

GBPUSD has crossed the resistance at 1.2290. 50-day MA may become an additional barrier. If 50-day MA is broken, consider 1.2367 as the next target.

If the pair rebounds, look at 1.2216 and 1.2170.


Commodities

Gold turned down on the risk-on sentiment. Any positive sign in the Sino-American trade war improves the market sentiment. Parties announced a fresh round of talks in October. Moreover, China confirmed its willingness to achieve progress in the negotiations.

Currently, XAUUSD is at highs of 2013. Thus, a small correction is obvious. However, it doesn’t mean that the fall will prolong for a long time. Supports are placed at 1536 and 1519-1525.

Unlike gold, WTI is pushed by the risk-on sentiment. Nevertheless, risks of the decline exist. Downward pressure will pull WTI to supports at 55.30 and54.25.

Crude oil inventories data is published today at 18:00 MT time. If the release shows a decline in the number of barrels, WTI will move towards the range of 56.80-57.50.

Market updates on September 6

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2lXNghX

06.09.2019

Canadian jobs data – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

American jobs data – 15:30 MT time (12:00 GMT)

Fed Chair Powel Speaks - 19:30 MT time (16:30 GMT)

Forex

Traders are cautious awaiting the American jobs data. According to the forecast, in August, NFP gained 160K comparing to 164K a month before. Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate are anticipated to stay on hold. The forecast is not encouraging for the USD. However, the actual release is what actually will show the strength of the American currency.

Later in the evening, Fed chairman Mr. Powell speaks in Zurich. If the chair gives any hints on the future monetary policy, markets will be affected.

The US dollar index has been struggling ahead of the jobs release. If the NFP disappoints, the fall will continue. In the case of encouraging readings, depreciation of the greenback will be limited.

What majors to trade?

EURUSD continues trading in the downtrend but the weakness of the USD has been supporting the rise. If the USD keeps declining, the pair has a chance to reach 1.1065 and move above towards 1.1085. The strong USD will cause a reversal of the pair to 1.1025, 1.0986.


Canadian and American jobs data are to released at the same time. Traders should be careful trading USDCAD.

Up to now, the pair has been sliding because the forecast for the Canadian release is more optimistic than for the American one. The further direction will depend on the actual reading.

If the fall continues, the pair will cross the support range of 1.3198-1.3185. The next supports are at 1.3154 and 1.3118.

If the pair is able to recover, previous supports should be considered as resistances. If bulls keep the pair above 1.3198, the next important levels are 1.3234 and 1.3256.

Commodities.

The correction of the gold continues. Although the USD keeps weakening, the XAUUSD pair is moving down. The risk-on sentiment is the key factor that pulls the gold down.

Now, bears are trying to break the support at 1,508. If they succeed, the next targets are placed at 1,495 and 1,485. If the pair manages to recover, previous supports will be used as resistances. If the pair sticks above 1508, levels to watch are 1,519 and 1,527.

6 Ways to Prevent Overtrading

If you ever risked without a clear edge in your trading – congratulations, you are overtrading. This habit is very addictive and can ruin your finances quickly. Try these techniques to stop overtrading:
- Do not try to win back the money right after the loss.
- Make a trading plan and keep to it. It will help you to discipline yourself.
- Do not trade 24/7. You cannot be focused and effective without breaks. No need staring at charts non-stop. You may be bored to death, at best, and the worst-case scenario, you’ll take impulsive decisions you are going to regret.
- Limit your profit and loss for a day. Train your will, stop even if you want more or feel frustrated because of a failure.
- Decide on the number of trades you can make during the day. Stick to it.
- Spare time for life without trading! Go out, run, paint, meet friends, and visit the family.


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IMPORTANT EVENTS TO TRADE THIS WEEK

More at: http://bit.ly/2ksp9b4

09.09.2019

ECB Meeting (Thu, 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT) time) – analysts don’t predict rate changes. However, traders will look at the tone of the central bank. If the bank sounds hawkish, that is unlikely, the European currency will move up. In the case of the dovish mode covering global uncertainties, the euro will move down.

American CPI level (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) - forecasts are weak but the actual readings will be more important. If the releases overcome the forecasts, the American currency will appreciate.

American retail sales figures (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) - again forecasts are not encouraging, the American currency has risks to decline.



Political issues: Brexit

The sudden resignation of Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd heated up the situation. It’s worth reminding that recently PM’s brother, Jo Johnson, quit the government.

Nevertheless, Boris Johnson is sticking to his decision to bring the UK to the Brexit by the end of October despite a series of fails in the Parliament. There are odds that the Prime Minister will get round the Parliament law requiring a Brexit delay in the case of no deal.

On Monday, the Parliament will vote on the general elections taking its last chance to do something before the shutdown.

Traders should follow the news carefully to not miss an opportunity to trade on the high volatility.

Market updates on September 12

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2lKwByz

12.09.2019

Key events ahead:

ECB monetary policy statement and main refinancing rate – 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT) time

ECB press conference – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Eyes of all traders of the EUR will be on the ECB meeting later today. The European Central bank is expected to deliver a great stimulus package, which may weaken the EUR. At the moment, EUR/USD is moving up towards the resistance at 1.1037. The next key level will be placed at 1.1054. From the downside, the first support will lie at 1.1. After that, you need to pay attention to the 1.0983 level. The next support will lie at 1.0960.

After the US President Donald Trump tweeted he'd be delaying the next tariff hike on Chinese goods for two weeks, the USD/JPY pair tested the 108.16 resistance level. After that, the pair inched to the downside to the support level at 107.78. If the Japanese yen continues to strengthen, the next support will be placed at 107.62. In case of the bullish strength, the pair will rise back to the 108.16 level. The next resistance will lie at 108.29.

The Australian dollar was supported by the news, too. The Antipodean currency has risen to the 0.6885 level. If bulls push AUD/USD pair higher, the next resistance will lie at 0.6896. On the other hand, if the USD gets stronger, the pair will fall to the support at 0.6867. After the breakout of this level, the 0.6857 mark will be important.