Thread: Forex daily News FBS

Market updates on September 13

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2kKPjWx

13.09.2019

Key events ahead:

US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Yesterday, the European Central bank introduced a new stimulus, which included lower rates and fresh quantitative easing measures. EUR/USD pair fell to the support at 1.0929 but managed to rebound and jumped by around 160 pips due to the weaker dollar. Since the beginning of the European trading session, bulls have pushed the pair to the resistance level at 1.1095 (200-period SMA) and have tested the 1.1106 level. The main focus of traders will be on US retail data. According to the forecasts, headline retail sales will increase by 0.2%, while its core level will advance by 0.1%. If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the pair will slide below the 1.1065 level. The next support levels in focus will lie at 1.1050 and 1.1036. Alternatively, the disappointing release will weaken the USD. As a result, buyers will be confident enough in retesting the resistance at 1.1106. The next resistance will lie at 1.1116. Strong bullish pressure will push the pair even higher towards the 1.1137 level.

GBP/USD has taken advantage of the weaker USD and jumped by around100 pips to the resistance at 1.2459. The next direction of the pound will depend on the Brexit headlines. From the upside, it is recommended to pay attention to the 1.2459, 1.2495 and 1.2508 levels. If the USD gets stronger, we will see the slide towards the support levels at 1.2427, 1.2395 and 1.2338.

USD/JPY has been moving down on the weaker USD. If it continues to fall further, the test of the support at 107.78 will be inevitable. If it is broken, the next key level will lie at 107.62. Buyers will be focused on the retest of the 108.16-10824 levels. If the pair breaks them, the further rise may be limited by the 108.49 level.

5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: http://bit.ly/2koGbqv

16.09.2019

British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 1.8%. If the actual level is higher, the GBP will rise.

Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – As for Canada’s consumer inflation index, we are awaiting it to decline by 0.2%.

FOMC rate statement (Wed, 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT)) – The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its interest rate from 2.25-2% to 1.75-2%. In addition, it is important to pay attention to the dot plot, where the FOMC representatives are going to express their views on the future rate changes. After that, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell may also provide comments which may shake the USD at 21:30 MT time.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT)) – The employment change is expected to increase by 15.2 thousand jobs, while unemployment change will likely remain at the same level of 5.2%. Higher-than-expected employment change and the lower-than-expected unemployment rate will be positive for the aussie.

The monetary policy summary by the BOE (Thu, 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT)) – The interest rate is forecast to remain at the same level of 0.75%. It is recommended to pay attention to the tone of the statement. Hawkish comments will push the GBP up.

Hot topics:

Crude oil surged after the attack on the Saudi Arabian production facility over the weekend. An attack affected 5% of global crude output. Today, US president Donald Trump announced that he would release US emergency supplies to pull the oil prices down. In addition, oil producers said that there were enough stocks stored up worldwide. However, the fresh attacks pushed prices of WTI and Brent back to their May’s levels.

US and China trade representatives will meet on Friday. The goal of the meeting will be to discuss the possibility of an interim trade deal. We expect risk sentiment to be affected.

The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has had a meeting with the president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker today, where they agreed that Brexit talks must intensify.

Market updates on September 18

More at: http://bit.ly/2lXvewm

18.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Canadian CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Crude oil inventories – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT) time

FOMC rate statement and economic projections – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time

FOMC press conference – 21:30 MT (18:30 GMT) time

EUR/USD has fallen after the test of the 1.1074 level. The pair has touched the 100-period SMA at 1.1035. The direction of the pair will depend on the Fed meeting today at 21:00 MT. The market anticipates a rate cut. If it happens, the USD is forecast to fall. In this case, buyers will take advantage of the weaker USD and push the pair higher. The first resistance level lies at 1.1055. If it is broken, pay attention to the next resistance levels at 1.1067 and 1.1074. If the Fed surprises with keeping its rate on hold, the USD will strengthen. Bears will pay attention to the 1.1035 levels. If they manage to break it, the further levels in focus will be placed at 1.1014 and 1.1. Technically, the pair formed a symmetrical triangle.

The traders of the CAD are awaiting the release of Canadian CPI at 15:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the indicator will slide by 0.2%. Higher-than-expected figures will pull USD/CAD below the 200-period SMA towards the support at 1.3253. The next key support will lie below the 100-period SMA at 1.3238. If the actual figures disappoint the market, the pair will rise above the 1.3271 level. The next resistance for the pair will be placed at 1.3289.

Oil prices are consolidating ahead of the release of crude oil inventories. According to the forecast, the number of barrels held in inventory by commercial firms will decline by 2.1 million. Bigger fall will push the oil prices higher. The first resistance for WTI’s price will lie at $59.42. After that, pay attention to the $59.85, $60.5 and $60.86 levels. In case of an alternative scenario, the first support will lie at $58.76. After that, it is recommended to pay attention to the $58.4 and $57.72 levels.

Key levels for Brent’s bulls are placed at $64.6, $65.2 and $65.76. In case of the fall, bears will target support levels at $63.46 and $62.9 (50-period SMA)

Market updates on September 19

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2lWNWEw

19.09.2019

Key events ahead:

BOE monetary policy summary – 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT) time

US Philly Fed manufacturing index – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

The European trading session will be highlighted by the events for the British pound. Traders will pay attention to the BOE meeting at 14:00 MT. This is the last interest rate decision by the bank before the current Brexit deadline set on October 31st. After the inflation rate fell yesterday to the lowest levels since the end of 2016 (below the BOE target rate of 2%), it would be interesting to hear the hints on the possible slash in the interest rates in the upcoming months.

At the moment, GBP/USD is trading within the triangle pattern on H4. If the GBP is supported, the pair will break the upper border at 1.2503. The next resistance levels will lie at 1.2517, 1.2537 and 1.2555. In case of the pound’s weakness, the cable will slide below the 1.2457 level (lower border of the triangle). If this level is broken, the further support levels will lie at 1.2438 and 1.2422. Strong bearish pressure will pull the pair even lower to the 1.2391 level.

On H4, EUR/USD has risen back from the lower border of the triangle and has tested its upper border near the 1.1067 level. If the USD is supported by the Philly Fed manufacturing index, the pair will fall to the 100-period SMA towards the support at 1.1035. After that, the next key level will lie at 1.1014. If the USD is weak, the break of the 1.1067 level will be inevitable. The next resistance levels will be placed at 1.1074 and 1.1087. (200-period SMA)

The Japanese yen strengthened during the Asian trading session. As a result, USD/JPY tested the 50-period SMA. However, the pair has inched higher towards the resistance at 108.24. Further resistance levels lie at 108.37, 108.47 and 108.63. Pay attention to them if the USD is supported. In case of risk-off sentiment, the pair will fall below the 107.91 level. Further support levels in focus will lie at 107.79 and 107.61.

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Market updates on September 20

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2kTXi3u

20.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the FOMC member Williams – 15:15 MT (12:15 GMT) time

Canadian core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Speech by the FOMC member Rosengren – 18:20 MT (15:20 GMT) time

US-China trade talks

The British pound was supported today after the interview given by the European president Jean Claude Juncker, where he said that the Brexit deal would happen. The cable spiked above the 1.25 level and has tested the resistance at 1.2557. If this level is broken, the next resistance levels will lie at 1.2577 and 1.2598. In case of any uncertainties, bears will be looking for the fall towards the support levels at 1.2506, 1.2476 and 1.2444. On H4, we can see a bearish divergence with MACD, which may signal about a possible short-term reversal

USD/CAD is awaiting the release of Canada’s core retail sales. On H4, the pair managed to stick above the 200-period SMA. At the moment of writing, USD/CAD has been moving upwards to the resistance at 1.3277. If the release disappoints the market, this level will be broken. The next resistance will be placed at 1.3289. In case of an alternative scenario, the pair will slide back below the 200-period SMA to the support at 1.3253. The next support will be placed at 1.3246 (100-period SMA).

EUR/USD is consolidating between the 1.1058 resistance level and the 1.1037 support level on H4. If bulls manage to break their way to the upside, the next resistance levels will lie at 1.1068-1.1074. On the other hand, bears will pay attention to the break of the 1.1037 level. After that, the next support will lie at 1.1014.

5 important events this week will bring us!

More at: http://bit.ly/2kARXhA

23.09.2019

Speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi (Mon, 16:00 MT (13:00 GMT) time) – If the ECB president is hawkish, the EUR will be supported;

CB consumer confidence for the US (Tue, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time) – Higher-than-expected figures will push the USD up;

RBNZ rate statement (Wed, 5:00 MT (2:00 GMT) time) – Analysts anticipate the Reserve bank of New Zealand to keep its interest rate unchanged at 1%. Traders will pay attention to the outline of the statement. If the RBNZ is hawkish, the NZD will rise.

US final GDP (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the USD will go up.

US core durable goods orders and personal spending (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – Higher-than-expected figures will boost the USD

Hot news

After the trade talks between the US and China last week, we heard some positive comments on that matter from both sides.

Oil prices jumped on the news that the reparation of the Saudi plant would likely take months.

The EU’s Donald Tusk will meet the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week. However, judging by the tone of the Prime Minister, he does not expect any breakthrough this week. Also this week the Supreme Court will rule on Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament. The uncertainties affect the GBP.

Market updates on September 24

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2msPlmn

24.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the RBA governor Philip Lowe – 12:55 MT (8:55 GMT)

CB consumer confidence for the US – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)

During the Asian trading session, the trading of AUD/USD was mixed. Bulls managed to push the pair higher towards the 0.6787 level. If the RBA governor shares some positive comments, the AUD may inch higher. If the 0.6787 level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.6795-0.6799 levels. After that, bulls need to focus on the 0.6804 level. From the downside, the first support for the pair will lie at 0.6773. If it is broken, the pair will be vulnerable to the fall to 0.6767 level. After that, reaching the support at 0.6759 seems possible.

EUR/USD has been trading with low volatility. We may expect CB consumer confidence to move the pair. According to the forecasts, the indicator will reach 134.1 points. If the actual level is higher, the support at 1.09816 will be broken. The next key support for the pair will be placed at 1.0956-1.0964. If the USD is weak, the breakout of the resistance level at 1.0997 will be in focus. After that, bulls will be targeting the 1.1024 level.

GBP/USD has spiked above the 1.2460 level on the news that the Supreme Court decided that the prorogation of the Parliament was unlawful. We will wait for further updates on that matter. The next resistance for the cable on H4 will lie at 1.24. From the downside, the support levels lie at 1.2414, 1.2391 and 1.2364.

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Market updates on September 26

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2lZPIov

26.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi – 16:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 16:45 MT (13:45 GMT) time

Speech by the FOMC member Bullard – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time

Speech by the FOMC member Clarida – 18:45 MT (15:45 GMT) time

Rate decision by the Central bank of Mexico – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time

EUR/USD has been falling. The pair has tested the ground below the 1.0936 level. The next support for bears lies at 1.0925. After reaching it and breaking, the pair will fall until the lower border of the descending channel and the 1.0890 level will be reached. From the upside, the first resistance will be placed at 1.0964. The next level in focus will lie at 1.0994 (upper border of the descending channel). RSI is about to enter the oversold zone.

The cable bounced from the 100-period SMA at 1.2373 on H4 and started to fall. If it continues to slide, the support at 1.2314 will be targeted. Further key levels in bears' attention will be placed at 1.2281 and 1.2233. If the pair reverses, the retest of the 1.2373 level seems likely. The next resistance will be placed at 1.2437. If we look at oscillators, we can see that RSI is moving within the oversold zone. If it leaves this zone, it may provide a buying opportunity.

USD/MXN is consolidation on H4 ahead of the interest rate decision by the Central bank of Mexico at 21:00 MT. According to forecasts, the bank will cut its interest rate from 8% to 7.75%. The decision is priced in, that is why we may expect the USD/MXN pair to fall right after the announcement. After the recent gains, the pair has been trading above the 100-period SMA, close to the resistance at 19.5870. Further resistance levels will be situated at 19.6340 and 19.6734. If USD/MXN break the support at 19.5335, bears will pull it lower to the 19.4787 level. RSI is about to enter the overbought zone.