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5 important events this week will bring us!

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14.10.2019

Retail sales and core retail sales (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the headline indicator will increase by 0.3%. At the same time, its core level will advance by 0.2%. Higher-than-expected figures will bring positive momentum to the USD.

Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Analysts anticipate the consumer index for Canada to slide by 0.3%. If the actual figures are indeed negative, the CAD will fall. Otherwise, the CAD may be supported.

Australian employment change and unemployment rate (Thu, 3:30 MT (0:30 GMT)) – The indicator of employment change is expected to show an increase of 15.3 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.3%. If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the AUD will move higher.

European Brexit summit (Thu-Fri) – After the productive talks last week, where the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the Brexit deal was achieved, the EU negotiators said that the talks were not enough. The EU wants more concrete decisions on Brexit ahead of the EU Summit this Thursday. If the progress is made, we will follow the updates from the summit to look for the further movements of the GBP. In case of positive news and reaching of the agreement, the GBP will rise.

Chinese GDP (Fri, 5:00 MT (2:00 GMT)) – The Chinese yuan was supported last week after the progress in US-China trade negotiations made on Friday. Despite that, China required more talks before signing the “Phase One” trade deal, according to Monday’s news. It pulled the risk sentiment down. Besides the news on trade tensions, the risk sentiment may be affected by Chinese GDP growth on Friday. It will be interesting to look at the indicator amid the growing signs of the global slowdown. Higher-than-expected figures will push the risk sentiment up. Therefore, the risk-weighted currencies (AUD, NZD) will go up.

Hot news

This week is going to be busy with a lot of earnings reports. Later FBS analysts will present the analysis of the stocks you need to pay attention to this week.

Turkish lira continues to weaken as the US and Europe threatened the country to impose sanctions over the actions in Syria.

The new Trump’s tariffs on European imports are expected to be imposed on October 18. These goods will include German coffee, Scotch whiskey, British biscuits, Spanish olives, Italian cheeses, French wines and many more. It may affect the EUR.

Market updates on October 15

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2MfGD5m

15.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Bostic – 16:00 MT (13:00 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member George – 19:45 MT (16:25 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Bullard – 22:25 MT (19:25 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Daly – 22:30 MT (19:30 GMT)

GBP/USD has retested its recent highs above the 1.27 level after the comments by the EU chief Brexit negotiator about the possibility of a Brexit deal this week. Today we anticipate the UK to suggest fresh Brexit proposals after the meeting between the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and DUP leader Arlene Foster. It’s highly recommended to follow the headlines, as the GBP gets volatile on the announcements. In case of positive news, the cable may inch higher to the 1.2684 resistance level. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 1.2706. Further levels in bulls’ focus will lie at 1.2725 and 1.2741. Alternatively, bears will pull the GBP/USD pair lower to the support at 1.2630. The next support will be placed at 1.2576. If this level is broken, the chances of reaching the 1.2515 level will increase. Technically, RSI is moving within an overbought zone. If it leaves this zone, it may provide us a short-term selling opportunity.

EUR/USD is looking for further direction. The pair has been consolidating between 1.1034 and 1.1024 levels but has already tested the resistance level at 1.1045 and the support level at 1.1014. If bulls take over the market, the breakout of the 1.1034 level will happen and the next resistance will be placed at 1.1045. On the other hand, bears will be looking for a break of the 1.1024 to slide lower to the 1.1014 level.

The US threatened Turkey with tariffs on steel yesterday after the Turkish military actions in Syria. USD/TRY reached the resistance at 5.9202 but slid lower to the support at 5.8590. If bulls regain their positions, the pair will rise higher to the 5.9120 level and may retest the 5.9202 resistance level. The pair may rise as far as the 5.94 level will be reached. If a correction to the downside happens, the pair will fall lower to the 5.8590 level. The next support will be situated at 5.8396. MACD oscillator shows a bearish divergence with the price.

The aussie may move on a jobs data

More at: http://bit.ly/32kWq8z

16.10.2019

Australia will publish the level of employment change and the unemployment rate at 3:30 MT on October 17.

The indicator of employment change shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month. The unemployed rate, released at the same time as employment change, represents the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed. According to the forecast, employment change will advance by 15.3 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate will remain at the same level of 5.3%. How may the indicators move the AUD?

• If the employment change is higher, and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the AUD will rise;

• If the employment change is lower and the unemployment rate is higher than the forecasts, the AUD will fall.

Market updates on October 17

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/2J0zO5H

17.10.2019

Key events ahead

British retail sales - 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT)

EU Economic Summit – all day

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Speech by the RBA Governor Philip Lowe – 23:00 MT (20:00 GMT)

Yesterday’s reports that the Brexit deal was not reached ahead of the European summit scheduled for today pulled the British pound lower. GBP/USD slid to the support at 1.2745. If this level is broken, the next support will be placed at 1.2686. The next support levels will lie at 1.2662 and 1.2641. From the upside, the first key resistance will lie at 1.2877. After the breakout, reaching the 1.2920 and 1.2943 levels seem possible.

AUD/USD has risen on a lower-than-expected unemployment rate and the news that China is discussing the next phase of trade talks. The pair has crossed the 200-period SMA and moved higher to the 0.6804 level. If bulls overcome this level, the next resistance levels will be placed at 0.6810 and 0.6818. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the 0.6780 level. After that, reaching the support level at 0.6773 seems possible.

NZD/USD has been supported as the risk sentiment in the market gets better. The kiwi has tested the 200-period SMA. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.6330. After that, the next resistance will be situated at 0.6345. From the downside, bears will pay attention to 0.6288, 0.6277 and 0.6267.

Market updates on October 18

More at: http://bit.ly/2pwNnmu

18.10.2019

EU economic summit – all day

Speech by the FOMC member Clarida – 18:30 MT (15:30 GMT)

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 20:45 MT (17:45 GMT)

Brexit news continues to move the market ahead of the significant vote on Saturday. The GBP/USD pair has been trading between the support at 1.2838 and the resistance at 1.2890. If the resistance at 1.2890 is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 1.2920. After that, the retest of the levels close to 1.2970 seems possible. From the downside, the breakout of the 1.2838 level may lead bears to move towards 1.2749.

After the test of the 108.92 level, USD/JPY slid lower to the 108.46 support level. If it is broken, bears may take over the market and pull the pair lower to 108.16. The next support will be placed at 107.79. In case of an alternative scenario, the pair may break the 108.92 level and rise above the 200-period SMA to the next resistance level at 109.45. If we look at oscillators, we can see that RSI is moving close to the overbought zone.

Yesterday’s negotiations between the US and Turkey were productive as the countries agreed to a ceasefire in Syria. As a result, USD/TRY dropped heavily below the 50- and 100-period SMAs on H4. Bears are trying to reach the 5.7537 level. The next support will be placed at 5.7288. In case of a reversal, the first resistance to watch will be placed at 5.7990. After that, reaching the 5.8144 level will be desirable by bulls.

Important events this week will bring us

More at: http://bit.ly/35WZTfS

21.10.2019

Canada’s core retail sales (Tue, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 0.1%. If the actual level is higher, the CAD will rise.

French flash services PMI, German flash manufacturing PMI and German flash services PMI (Thu, 10:15-10:30 MT (7:15-7:30 GMT)) – Higher-than-expected figures will be positive for the euro.

A monetary policy statement by the European Central bank and press conference (Thu, 14:45 and 15:30 MT (11:30 and 12:30 GMT)) – The changes to the interest rate are not expected, but we need to pay attention to the tone of the statement and the comments by the ECB president during press conference.

US core durable goods orders (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Analysts forecast a decline of 0.2%. If the actual figures outperform the forecasts, the USD will be supported.

Hot news:

During the weekend, the UK Parliament made a vote, which forced the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to write to the EU asking for a three-month extension. Today, Boris Johnson will try again to put his deal to a vote in the House of Commons. At first, it is highly recommended to pay attention to the statement by the speaker John Bercow at 17:30 MT time, where he may announce the decision concerning the meaningful vote.

Monday is an election day in Canada. Some of the analysts suggest that the Conservative party in the government will be better for the loonie than the current Labour one. The competition is going to be a tight one.

Market updates on October 22

More at: http://bit.ly/31CfoXd

22.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Canada’s core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

BOC business outlook survey – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT)

Parliament Brexit Vote – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT)

Yesterday, the speaker John Bercow rejected the possibility of a significant vote. The news pulled the GBP down a little bit. Will the vote happen today? If it is, GBP/USD may retest the resistance at 1.2985. The next resistance will lie at 1.3011. After that, the 1.3059 level will be in bulls' focus. In case of a vote's delay, the pair will slide below the lower border of the ascending trading channel and target the support at 1.29. After that, the 1.2864 level will be in the focus of bears. The next support level will be placed at 1.2834.

USD/CAD formed a Doji candlestick on the 4-hour chart and bounced towards the resistance level at 1.3088. Today, the CAD traders may take advantage of the release of Canada’s core retail sales at 15:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the indicator will remain unchanged. If the actual level is higher, USD/CAD will slide below the 1.3077 level and move down to the next support at 1.3066. After that, reaching the 1.3052 level seems possible. From the upside, the key levels to watch are 1.3088, 1.3098 and 1.3128. RSI is moving within an oversold zone.

Yesterday, USD/JPY fell lower and tested the support at 108.36. If the risk sentiment is off, the further support levels will lie at 108.13 and 107.91. On the other hand, the pair may rise to the resistance level at 108.73. If it is broken, it is recommended to pay attention to the 108.9 and 109.42 levels.

Oil market updates on October 23

More at: http://bit.ly/2BDQNH4

23.10.2019

Crude oil inventories – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT)

According to yesterday’s news OPEC is considering further production cuts. The next meeting of oil-producing countries is scheduled for December 5-6. The announcement pushed the oil prices up. The move to the downside came after the release of private oil data. According to it, the number of barrels advanced by 4.45 million (vs. the 2.75 million expected). Today, we will be awaiting the publication of crude oil inventories by the EIA at 17:30 MT. According to forecasts, the number of barrels is expected to increase by 2.5 million. In case of lower figures, the oil prices will go up.

WTI has tested the $54.60 resistance level but slid down towards the support at $54. If the number of barrels is lower than the forecasts, this level will be broken. The next support will be placed at $53.4 (100-period SMA). After that, the further support level will lie at $52.8. In case of a higher-than-expected number of barrels, the pair will break the $54.6 level. The next resistance will lie at $54.93.

The price of Brent followed a similar scenario. It has tested the $60.25 resistance level but fallen to the support at $59.33 (50-period SMA). At the moment, the further key levels from the downside lie at $58.9 (100-period SMA) and $58.57. From the upside, the first resistance is placed at $59.65. After that, you need to pay attention to the $59.97 level. If they are broken, the retest of the $60.25 level will be possible.

Notice, that you need to choose BRN- and WTI- futures to trade oil in Metatrader 4.

Market updates on October 28

Check the charts: http://bit.ly/347MTSL

28.10.2019

EUR/USD has been making confident steps towards the 1.1106 level on the 4-hour chart. If bears take over the market, the may pull the pair below the 1.1090 level. This scenario will increase the chances of a retest of the 1.1072 support level from October 25. In this case, the downward movement, which is confirmed by Parabolic SAR, may be resumed.

The news that Brexit would be delayed until January 31, 2020 did not stop the consolidation of GBP/USD on the H4. The upper border of the range is placed at 1.2860. After that, further upside momentum may be limited by the 1.2876 level (50-period SMA). On the chart, you can see that this level lies close to the upper border of the short-term descending channel. As far as buyers overcome this border, the retest of tops from October 24th at 2.2927 seems likely. Bears will be eyeing the support at the lower border of the consolidation range (1.2807). The next key level for them will be placed at 1.2785.

The gold is also trading sideways between the $1,506 and $1,503 levels. The breakout to the upside may lead bulls to move towards the $1,509 boundary. On the contrary, the consolidation period may be over with bears crossing the $1,503 level. In this case, the chances of reaching $1,500 are high.