Thread: Forex daily News FBS

Covid-19 is jeopardizing Apple’s plans

Check more at: https://bit.ly/3e2IQgx

08.04.2020


There are some doubts about Apple sustainability amid coronavirus. Who will buy and who will produce new IPhones?
Coronavirus impact on Apple

At first, problems started in Asia. Chinese factories couldn’t supply iPhones because of the lockdown with strict quarantine measures for thousands of laborers. However, the steps taken by the Chinese authorities helped to stop the spread of the disease. Now China is resuming production.

Then, the virus hit the USA and Europe causing shops to close and people to stay at home. That, in turn, hugely reduced incomes. Obviously, that would diminish demand for new Apple products. This is a crucial factor for the future financial health of the corporation. We can see now how Apple’s plans are getting ruined. The unveiling the iPhone 9/SE2 has already been delayed. Even the much-anticipated iPhone 12 seems to be released far later than planned. There are all reasons to expect that these problems will affect Apple stock price preventing it from the upside.
Technical analysis



Apple stock had been declining since February 19, then it reversed on March 23 and reached the 271.5 mark breaking through 23.6% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Yesterday it went down and now it’s on 262.51. The nearest support levels are at 255.3 or 38.2% Fibonacci level and at 248.00 where the 50-day Moving Average almost crosses the upward trendline.
Apple’s future

The quarterly revenue, January to March, combined to a 12% fall from the previous year. Wall street analysts continue to make their financial forecasts worse and target prices lower for Apple.

The manufacturing problems are over now, so the success of the company depends on the purchasing power of global comsumers. The latter will likely take a serious blow in the upcoming months. In the long-term Apple may recover its prior revenue. We should learn more from Apple’s earnings release and during the call with analysts and investors on April 30.

Remember that by trading stock CDF traders are able to open sell trades on Apple stock!

What moves the market on April 9?

Check more at: https://bit.ly/39UAhBc

09.04.2020

Here are the most important topics that will determine the dynamics of currencies, commodities and stocks on Thursday, April 9. Notice that volatility is expected to rise during the day providing opportunities for active traders.

Coronavirus. According to the latest data from Europe, Italy and Spain both recorded the most new cases in days, while the UK announced a record number of coronavirus deaths. Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in intensive care, although his condition has improved. Be ready for the extension of the lockdown period. Notice, however, that both forecasts from Italian and Spanish governments and experts said that the peak of the virus could come within days. These expectations will likely support the market sentiment and, consequently, riskier assets such as the AUD, the NZD, exotic currencies, and stocks.

Dismal economic forecasts. Analysts compete with each other in negativity about the futures of the global economy. The World Trade Organization said on Wednesday that the pandemic could cause a bigger damage of international trade flows than at any point in the postwar era. Wall Street banks went further and provided a number: according to them, the coronavirus will reduce the world's GDP growth by more than $5 trillion over the next two years. This number exceeds the annual output of Japan.

US jobless claims. Today we’ll get another update on the indicator that has recently reached unprecedented levels. Forecasts are that there will be 5 million new claims after a total of nearly 10 million claims over the past two weeks. Don’t expect the USD to take a hit after the release: everyone is ready for such a number and the greenback remains the safe-haven of choice.

European failure. There’s no relief for the EUR as European Union finance ministers failed in all-night talks to agree on more economic support for the region’s economies. The negotiations will resume at 18:00 GMT on Thursday. If something is announced late during the day, it will be able to cause big moves in EUR/USD as the amount of liquidity will be lower ahead of the US bank holiday on Friday. So far, the pair has been limited by the 100-period MA at 1.0880 (H4), while support is at 1.0835 and 1.0805.

OPEC+ meeting. The pandemic won’t keep the world’s top oil producers from discussing the output cut: a video conference is scheduled for 15.00 MT time. There have been positive signals from Russia regarding the deal. Brent is consolidating in the $33.00 area. The deal will make the price jump above $45, while the failure will trigger a decline towards $23.50 and $21.65.

EUR: $590bln rescue package

https://bit.ly/3c99VwF

10.04.2020

What’s happening?

A $590bln financial emergency package was prepared to aid the European economy by EU finance ministers. It includes a 100bln-euro joint employment insurance fund, 200bln euros of liquidity to be facilitated to commercial organizations, and 240bln euros to support emergency spending programs of the European states.
Great news then…

Sure it is. However, formally, it is now only left to the EU country leaders to approve it. As you understand, that “only” is an abyss to leap over, given the current political and economic disagreements between the European states.
Why so?

Primarily, because the virus, although biologically indiscriminative to societies, hit Southern Europe disproportionately harder than the North. Specifically, Spain, Italy, and France suffered most losses, while countries like the Netherlands, Germany or Sweden received much less damage.

On top of that, there are clear inter-state political and economic differences between the European countries, which have been there long before the virus came, but the hardened situation over the pandemic just made those differences more severe.

And finally, there are internal political struggles and fragmentation resulting in the fact that each opposing party or politician is trying to use the virus countermeasures to boost their own recognition and agenda.

Altogether, these factors lead to heavy doubt about the real level of the EU functionality and even integrity as an economic and political structure. Needless to say, if the European leaders manage to fail on this step, the EUR will lose much of its value. Otherwise, should they overcome their discords and approve the financial aid, EUR will be boosted in the long-term.
So what do I do?

You watch the levels. Currently, EUR/USD trades between the support of 1.0920 and the resistance of 1.0970. Activity on behalf of the US Fed and Trump’s positive “incursions” in the media with regards to the oil talks between OPEC+ countries give support to the USD, however, so far, EUR has been fighting that off. If next week brings some positive news on the progress over the mentioned financial plan, the resistance of 1.0970 should be crossed, and 1.1030 will be the next possible target in line with 200-MA. Otherwise, 50-MA and 100-MA will be there to greet the disappointed euro and walk it to the support of 1.0855. So watch the news and act accordingly.

April 13: starting the week

More at: https://bit.ly/2K0cTYf

13.04.2020

Last week’s trading was passing in hopes for the positive result of the OPEC+ negotiation. The result is there now, and we will quickly scan it for the possible outcomes in the next paragraph. Apart from that, the British Prime minister’s treatment in the ICU was another big factor pressing on the Forex market. Lastly, European infection dynamics and the economic response preparations were the third large element that shaped the trade. What happened to each “story” and what do we have to start with week with? We will see them one by one.
Oil: good, but not enough

Let’s not be pessimistic: the deal is there. 9.7mln barrels per day will be the total supply quantity cut starting from May 1. The market applauded not only to OPEC+ but to Donald Trump personally. A hater of the cartel just a while ago, he is the one who finally convinced Mexico, Russia, and Saudi Arabia to get the deal done. Or so it seems. Anyway, that’s another ace for him to claim in preparing for the November election campaign. How does the oil price look now?

Not really impressive. The hopes for a “definitive victory” which were pushing WTI above $25 are largely erased: strategically, it is now closer to $20 than anywhere else. Why? Mostly, because this 10% output cut comes too late and is too little. The global demand now is roughly 30% lower than the pre-virus level at which the market was stabilized. Cutting 10% leaves the remaining 20% “in the air”. In addition to that, the date which makes the OPEC+ agreement effective is May 1 – that is three weeks away. During that time, the market will be in the free-for-all state. Meaning, everyone pumps as much as they want. That’s why the almost 10mln-barrel-per-day cut appears more like a reality-forced recognition gesture rather than a proactive forward-looking market rectification step.
Boris Johnson: the winner is out

This was the Sunday news headline about Boris Johnson:

Source: Bloomberg

It’s hard to deny that such a dramatic comment makes the victory of the British Prime Minister over the virus even more shining, emblematic, and inspiring. At least, to his British fellow citizens. It should have supported the British pound as well. Has it?

Indeed, the GBP rose to test 1.2540 against the USD. It broke the four-week resistance of 1.2450, converting it into the current support level, and left the Moving Averages below. Moving further upwards, however, will require something more fundamental rather than one famous individual’s (even if that’s a very important individual) victory over the disease. Does the UK economy have that? Time will show.
Europe: trench war

The infections picture in mainland Europe seems to be slowly improving. Spain, Italy, and France are reporting decreasing dynamics of the virus spread. The lockdowns are planned to stay in power for several weeks more, subject to authorities’ confirmation, to ensure that the virus spread is sealed. That pushes the biological threat to the second place and pulls the economic agenda into the front row of the agenda. Recently, a financial aid package was formed by the EU finance ministers, but the problem was for the country leaders to approve them. It remains a problem gives the political and economic discords between the states, and this week, we will say how this card is played. That should be the main reason why EUR/USD is now kept in a “waiting” mode.

Currently traded at 1.0932, it goes into consolidation between the resistance of 1.0970 and support of 1.0920. At the same time, the secondary layer of the movement channel is presented by the Moving Averages: 50-MA and 100-MA support the currency pair at around 1.0850, and 200-MA is capping the upside at 1.1030. Very likely, EUR/USD will be staying pretty silent until some decisive fundamental factor comes to the stage.

Tesla stock: at full speed ahead. Why?

https://bit.ly/2RGP7EP

10:34 14.04.2020

We saw a huge surge of Tesla stock on April 13. It rebounded to its mid-March position. What were the reasons?
Oppenheimer’s analysis

The first reason is a bullish forecast from the reliable US investment firm - Oppenheimer. After their analysis had been released traders ran to buy Tesla shares, thereby pushing the price up.

Technical analyst Ari Wald noted Tesla stock as a “Triple Play”, what basically means that the stock will beat not only expectations on revenue and earnings, but also on earnings guidance for future quarters. He said that as long as the stock holds above the $390 support level, the stock is "bullish." His colleague, fundamental analyst, Colin Rush kept an outperform rating for the stock. According to his forecasts, the price will be at $684 in 12 months.
Ramp in Giga Shanghai’s production

Another reason is an encouraging development in China, where auto sales are starting to the pick up again. Despite the shutdowns of plants because of COVID-19, the company's factory in Shanghai shows a massive expansion. According to a recent press release, Tesla has started producing two more Model 3 variants at its Shanghai plant. That means Tesla can have a lower price without import duties. This would boost the company’s profit margin.
What’s next?

Now we are waiting for Tesla’s first-quarter report on April 29. It would definitely affect Tesla’s stock.
Short technical analysis

Let’s look at the Tesla’s chart below. The price broke through all moving averages. Now it’s on the 651 mark, a bit above 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The resistant line is on 717. The support line is on 579.

Market drivers on April 15

https://bit.ly/2KaGEWr

15.04.2020

Let’s see what’s moving market today amid the coronavirus pandemic. Some countries are recovering such as China, but most of them are still under pressure.
Donald Trump sanctions WHO for poor performance

US President Donald Trump has stopped financing the World Health Organization. The main reason for that is the WHO hadn’t restricted travels from China in time, that undermined the US. Also, Donald Trump voiced his discontent that the WHO became very China-centric. However, House Democrats said that Donald Trump violated the law as he had no legal authority to halt payments to the WHO.
US dollar may weaken

On the one hand, the Fed’s monetary easing and credit backstops help to mitigate the coronavirus negative impact on the economy. On the other hand, these measures put a heavy pressure on the US dollar. Later today we will see the report of retail sales that will show the economic damage of lockdowns. This report should somehow influence on the US dollar. Also, tomorrow on April 16 unemployment claims will be released. Some economists think that the jobless rate will reach 20%.
Good news for Pound sterling

There is a positive scenario for the British pound as the negative impact of Brexit has been eliminated by the coronavirus. According to Standard Bank, EUR/GBP will fall to 0.8 soon. The pound price couldn’t touch this level since 2016. As the deadline for a trade deal is postponed, the risk for the currency is pushing back too.
Oil price plummeted again

If you remember, OPEC+ after long negotiations had finally decided to cut the oil production. However, it didn’t help to push the oil price up. What we see today is the WTI oil price fell below $20 per barrel. That’s happened because the oil demand had dropped enormously. The International Energy Agency said that the worst is yet to come.

USD: fighting through

https://bit.ly/2VgwvOr

16.04.2020

Positive dynamic

There is definitely a positive dynamic in the labor market based on the figures announced by the labor authorities in the US this Thursday.

5.2mln people filing for unemployment benefits is certainly better than 6.6mln and 6.8mln as it was it the previous two weeks respectively. However, the figure was still slightly above the expected 5.1mln.

Reaction

How did the USD react? Relatively indifferently across the board, although a certain weakness is visible with USD/JPY as in the chart below.

Generally, the USD has stopped its advanced against other currencies leading the main currency pairs into a temporary consolidation to digest the incoming data. In the larger scheme, it is unlikely, however, that the investors will move away from demanding more US dollars to hedge against the virus damage.


For the USD/JPY specifically, it trades currenly at 107.46 testing the support of 100-MA at 107.38. In fact, the currency pair performance is now contained between the latter and teh resistance of 200-MA at 107.68. Crossing either of these will serve as a confirmation of further direction for this currency pair.

US: reopening economy

https://bit.ly/3eu3Sou

17.04.2020

Unplugging

On Thursday, US President announced that he is going to gradually steer the country out of the “full armor” state. He shared a three-stage plan which suggests that 29 states are now qualified to lift most of the quarantine measures within a month’s time.

“A national shutdown is not a sustainable long-term solution”.
Two questions

The authorities of the US are trying to minimize the time during which the country stays economically frozen because each day under quarantine costs a lot and contributes to the accumulating risk of recession. That is understandable.

The question is whether the states are ready for that: in some of them, the infections are still rising. Plus there is still a big problem to actually measure these infections because the testing methodology and equipment are not yet fully adequate.

Another question is: how effective this plan may be if the federal government practically shifts the responsibility to set the guidelines and monitor the lifting of the virus restrictions to the state authorities. There is generally very little detail and even less federal support presented in the several-page document Donald Trump referred to.
Reaction

Although similar doubts were expressed by observers and the prevailing reaction among them was unconvinced, the market took this news as a relatively positive sign. The US dollar eased a bit, gold eased a lot, stocks climbed.

WTI dropped below zero: what does it mean?

https://bit.ly/3eyIb6G

20.04.2020

Big news shake financial markets more and more often. This time oil is once again the biggest news maker.
What happened with oil?

West Texas oil futures expiring on Tuesday turned negative for the first time in history. Negative prices mean that sellers were actually paying buyers to take the stuff off their hands. Such a situation occured because the US economy is on the lockdown and, as a result, there’s so much unused oil that America is running out of places to store it.
How it works?

Crude oil futures is a futures contract, in which a seller agrees to transfer a specified amount of barrels of oil to a buyer at a specified price on a specific date.

Some market players, such as refinery companies, use futures to ensure that they will have a favorable price fixed for the future. Most traders, however, trade oil futures without waiting until the expiry date. They don't want the actual oil, they just buy and sell oil futures to make money on the price swings. However, if they don’t get out of the position before the due date, they will have oil actually delivered to them.

There are oil futures for every month for years ahead. Trading terminates 3 business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month prior to the contract month. In April 2020, such day is Tuesday, April 21. Physical delivery for these contracts should take place in May, but as the storage capacities are near the limit, the demand has plunged. Storage is especially scarce in Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI May-dated futures contracts require futures buyers to take delivery of the oil. Hence, market players just wanted to get rid of these futures. There was a wave of selling and the price of WTI-20K dropped below 0.
What does it mean for other contracts?

Although, the futures market has experienced an impressive move, there's no way this is an apocalypse. We can see that other contracts haven’t collapsed at all. For instance, WTI June prices (WTI-20M) are above $20 a barrel.

Prices for Brent futures fell, but the decline wasn’t dramatic at all and accounted for about 5% on Monday. Unlike WTI, Brent crude can be delivered offshore to a variety of locations, so if there’s a lack of storage in one place, oil will be just moved elsewhere.

All in all, the story will likely keep oil under pressure for a time being. Notice that with FBS you can take advantage of various oil futures, both buying and selling these contracts in the form of CFD.

Latest news you need to know

https://bit.ly/3cCugKW

21.04.2020
Oil went below zero

The oil price dipped below zero the first time in its history and then rebounded back to its recent level at $21.45. That’s happened because for some oil producers it’s cheaper to pay buyers to take their oil than to stop production or rent a storage. Reasons are the demand damaged by the coronavirus and the unlimited supply created by Russia and Saudi Arabia. Even OPEC+ agreements on cutting the oil production by nearly 10% couldn’t save the industry. Click here to read more.
Dollar strengthened on North Korea news

According to Bloomberg, the health of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is deteriorating after the cardiovascular surgery last week. The US dollar gained, Asian and South Korean stocks weakened after these news. South Korean and Chinese sources doubt about his weak health. They reported that he is recovering.
Good news for British pound

The UK Claimant Count Change was released today. The numbers are encouraging! Only 12,100 people lost jobs when 170,000 were anticipated. It might help the British pound to stabilize for some time, but the US dollar anyway has a stronger position on the market now.
Earnings reports are coming up

This time it’s more intriguing than ever before. As investors want to see how companies cope with the coronavirus impact. Today we will get earning reports from Netflix at 23:00 MT and Coca-Cola at 14.30 MT. Be ready to react quickly!