Thread: Forex daily News FBS

Trade ideas on May 29

https://bit.ly/2XHTjGQ

29.05.2020

Let’s look at main movements on the market.
USD/JPY fell down

Investors are waiting for Donald Trump’s response to China’s security law in Hong Kong. As a result, the market uncertainty pushed up the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY is headed down to the support line at 107.1. If the price manages to cross it, it will pave the way towards the next support level at 106.8. Resistance levels are at 107.45 and 107.725.

Stocks dipped on risk-off sentiment

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq dipped today. Today the focus of investors has shifted from optimistic prospect of reopening economies to the US-China tensions. China’s parliament on Thursday insisted on the new security legislation in Hong Kong that raised a lot of questions about its future freedom and economic functioning. Everybody’s waiting for the US reaction today. Inevitably, the US-China relationship will get worse. Just yesterday S&P 500 passed the 3060 mark, unseen since March. Support levels are at 3000 and 2960.

Gold is moving up

The gold price rose on the market uncertainty and falling USD. It’s headed up to the retracement level at 1730. If it breaks through it, it will possibly jump up to 1750. Support levels are 1700 and 1680. Most analysts have bullish forecasts for gold as it always sticks to the long-term trend.

AUD/USD surged on weak USD

The Australian dollar went up as the US dollar fell. AUD has been climbing since March 20. Today it has met with a 200-day moving average at 0.6665. If it breaks through it, it will go up to the next resistance level at 0.675. Support lines are 0.66 and 0.65.

How US protests affect market?

https://bit.ly/2yWDUtU

01.06.2020

The main source of volatility for global markets is US-China tensions. Investors were waiting for US President’s speech on Friday for some hints. But, Donald Trump was not so disruptive as everybody expected. He didn’t impose any direct sanctions on China for its treatment of Hong Kong. According to investors, the US impact on China and Hong Kong is likely to be limited and more symbolic while the financial sector is unlikely to be affected.
Stocks gained

That improved the market sentiment and pushed stocks up. Let’s look at S&P 500. It has been climbing since March 20. It has already passed the 3040 mark. If it breaks through the retracement level at 3070, it will make the way towards 3110. Support levels are 3000 and 2935.

EUR surged

Nevertheless, violent protests in some American cities bothered investors, as crowds increase chances for the second coronavirus wave and economic activity loss.

As a result, EUR/USD rose on the weak greenback. Moreover, investors highly expect the ECB to unveil the rescue program with an additional 500 billion euros of asset purchases. All that played well for the EUR.

The price reached the March high at 1.114. The next retracement is at 1.117. If it manages to break through it, it may go even higher to 1.121. Support levels are at 1.11 and 1.10.

Gold moved up

The gold has passed 1740 and it’s moving up to a recent high at 1750. The overall trend is bullish, as you can see. And, the gold is likely to stick to the trend. Support levels are 1730 and 1700.

Oil forecast

Let’s talk about oil a little bit. Crude surged a record 88% in May driven by the OPEC+ deal. What’s more, OPEC+ is likely to expand its supply cuts in next months. However, prices are still well below where they have been at the beginning of the year. That’s because the demand yet need to show a sustained improvement for oil to keep rallying. Thanks to China, its oil demand has risen to near pre-coronavirus levels. However, the US demand stays low because of violent protests in the USA. Lrt's look at WTI oil chart. If the price crosses the 100-day moving average, it may go further to 37.5. Support are 31.5 and 27.

To trade WTI with FBS you need to choose WTI-20N.

What to trade on June 2?

https://bit.ly/3eK1lG4

02.06.2020

AUD surged

The day started with a fresh data from Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia set a cash rate unchanged. Also, RBA’s governor Philip Lowe was quite optimistic about the future economic recovery. He said: “it is possible that the depth of the downturn will be less than earlier expected”. He noticed that restrictions had been eased and rate of infections reduced. The market sentiment immediately improved and pushed AUD up. We can see on the AUD/USD that it rebounded to its pre-crisis levels. The price broke through all moving averages. Now it’s headed towards the retracement level at 0.69. The next one will be at 0.7. Support levels are 0.675 and 0.665.

Oil prices stabilized at $35

The oil prices are flat as markets wait for the OPEC+ decision. Russia and Saudi Arabia can agree to extend supply cuts in next three months. It will allow WTI oil prices to rebound to $40 a barrel at least. Petrol consumption is recovering, but it still well below pre-coronavirus levels. Speaking about airplanes, it’s hard to say when the industry will come back to normal. The WTI oil price slightly crossed the 100-day moving average and it’s headed to the new high at 37.5. Support levels are 31.5 and 27.

Violent protests in the USA

Violent protests in the USA have made the US dollar really weak. Investors start doubting about the future US recovery. The US economy hasn’t yet recovered from the coronavirus damage, when it met the new challenge. Donald Trump said that he would deploy the military troops if states don’t take measures. That led to S&P 500 contraction for a while. However, stocks are still trading at high levels as most economies are reopening.
Tesla jumped

On Saturday, SpaceX, founded and led by Elon Musk, sent two NASA astronauts to the International Space Station. The launch was successful and gave more confidence to investors in Musk and in Tesla. Let’s look at the chart, the price reached pre-crisis positions. The key psychological mark at 900 is really close. Support levels are 805 and 765.

How will USD react to NFP amid coronavirus?

https://bit.ly/3ct7fK9

03.06.2020

The US NFP will be reported on Friday, June 5, at 15:30 MT time.

Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

NFP is the essential indicator that depicts the US economic health. It is released shortly after the month ends. It’s a must-see for every trader as most times it has a huge impact on the market. There is a general rule that USD will rise, if NFP is better than expected. Nevertheless, the coronavirus reality breaks all rules. The market doesn’t react now as most expect it. The reason is USD has a safe-haven title and it goes up, when the market sentiment is risk-off. Last time on May 8, non-farm payrolls were better than forecasted, USD movements were mixed as firstly the greenback dropped on a risk-on sentiment after the report, but then climbed the next day. Anyway, the report is more likely to bring fresh volatility in the market and create great trading opportunities.

Catch the impulse after the report and join the market movement.

Risk-on sentiment eased on June 4

https://bit.ly/2A4apqm

04.06.2020

The market takes a breath after the rally up. What is next?
Stocks have a pause

S&P 500 passed the 3100 mark, unseen level since March. The reopening of economies and stimulus packages across the world improved the market sentiment. Investors believe that the worst is over. And, according to Bloomberg, we’ll see more support for the stock market.

Moreover, the US ADP private payrolls were much less than analysts expected. The data showed that only 2.76 million lost jobs, when 9 million were anticipated. That’s still a poor data, but it’s a sign that the economy is moving in the right direction. Today traders will wait for the US unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time.

Let’s look at the S&P 500 chart. Yesterday it showed the best 50-day trading stretch. If the price advances further, it may ramp up to the March 3 high at 3250. Support levels are 3000 and 2935.

OPEC+ meeting in doubt

Oil closed at the highest level since March: WTI - $37 and Brent - $40. However, today prices slightly contracted. Most investors are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. The question is for how long the oil alliance will cut supply. If they agree to extend cuts till the end of the year, it will definitely push prices up. Look at the Brent oil chart below. The price is exactly under the 100-day moving average. If it breaks through it, it will surge up to $45. Support levels are $36 and $34.


To trade Brent with FBS you need to choose BRN-20N.
Gold dropped under risk-on

XAU/USD couldn’t find any demand in such a risk-on atmosphere. The price fell down to the support level at 1700. The next support is at 1680. Resistance levels are 1730 and 1750. Gold set a really bullish trend. And, it’s unlikely that it will reverse soon. It looks more like a short term contraction. Tomorrow NFP at 15:30 MT time should add some volatility to the market. Be ready!


ECB statement today

The European Central Bank will have a meeting today at 14:45 MT time and then later hold a press conference at 15:30 MT time. Click here to know how to trade EUR after the ECB statement.

Check the economic calendar

NFP forecasts from 10 major banks

https://bit.ly/2MyRZ3W

05.06.2020

Today is the big day! Investors are waiting for NFP at 15:30 MT time. NFP shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Today it will reveal the employment change in May. It’s one of the most important indicators for all traders as it causes strong market movements. Here below you’ll find predictions from 10 major banks. Their forecasts vary from -2.2 million to -10 million. The most common one is -8 million.

RBC Economics

RBC Economics provides economic analysis and forecasts to the largest bank in Canada - the Royal Bank of Canada and its clients. They anticipate a 2.2 million decline in payrolls after April’s 20.5 million drop and a further increase in the unemployment rate to 20%.

Wells Fargo

It’s the world's fourth-largest bank, located in San Francisco. Wells Fargo’s analysts believe non-farm payrolls will drop by 8 million and the unemployment rate will climb to 20%.

NBF

NBF is abbreviation for the National Bank of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. They expect the US employment to drop by 7.5 million.

CIBC

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, commonly referred to as CIBC, is one of the "Big Five" banks in Canada. CIBC analysts suggest that around 6 million jobs were shed in May and the unemployment rate will rise by 18.6%.

ING

The ING Group is a Dutch banking and financial services corporation headquartered in Amsterdam. The expect the huge 10 million drop in non-farm payrolls and a rise in unemployment to 20%.

Westpac

Westpac is the Australia's first bank, located in Sydney. Its economists predict a 7.5 million decline in employment in May and the unemployment rate to peak at 20%.

Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank is a multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany. Its analysts forecast a 6.1 million drop in nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate rising to 19.1%.

Danske Bank

Headquartered in Copenhagen, it is the largest bank in Denmark and a major retail bank in the northern European. Danske Bank’s analysts think that employment in the USA has dropped by 10 million. However, they mentioned that we may be too pessimistic.

TDS

TD Securities is a reliable Canadian investment bank. According to economists at TD Securities, the -8 million consensus for payrolls is too weak. Their forecast is -3 million. The TDS expects less weakness than consensus in the unemployment rate as well: a 2.8% rise to 17.5%, versus 19.5% for the consensus.

Goldman Sachs

It’s an American multinational investment bank, headquartered in New York City. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect a 7.25 million drop in payrolls and a jump to 21.5% in the unemployment rate.

Follow the NFP report at 15:30 MT time today and catch the market movement!

Market movers on June 8

https://bit.ly/2ALAuuu

08.06.2020

Oil prices surged after successful OPEC+ meeting

OPEC+ members have signed a significant deal to cut the oil supply by 9.6 million barrels a day next month. In addition, any country that failed to fully implement output cuts should compensate it during next months. Also, keep in mind that countries a reopening and demand is recovering. That all played well for oil prices: WTI oil opened today at $40 a barrel and Brent oil – at $43. It’s the highest level for over three months! Here below you can see how U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette welcomed the deal on Saturday.


Let’s look at the Brent oil chart. It’s headed towards 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $45. And, this price is likely to be reached soon. The next retracement level will be at $51.5. Support levels are $39 and $36.

S&P 500 is aggressively climbing up

First of all, look at the chart. You’ll see really great performance of S&P 500. The price has passed $3190. If it crosses the retracement level at $3250, it will clear the way up towards $3335. Support levels are 3110 and 3000. What is the reason of such a fast growth? The reason should be the optimistic market sentiment as economies are reopening.

Gold is recovering its losses

The recent drop of the shining metal seems to be in the process of restoration: XAU/USD is one step away from testing $1,700. Noting the cloudy status of the US-China relations, we are likely to see that cross upwards pretty soon.

FOMC statement on June 10

https://bit.ly/37enPwl

09.06.2020

Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF

On June 10 at 9:00 MT time the Fed will report updated economic and financial guidelines — the first ones since last December. Also, later at 9:30 MT time the FOMC will held the press conference. There are no doubts that rates won’t go below zero as the US economy has a real potential of a V-shaped recovery as S&P 500 has almost reached the pre-crisis level. Some analysts consider that may be it’s time to even increase rates as the NFP data was encouraging. The May jobs report showed that only 2.5 million people lost jobs, while economists anticipated 8 million. Also, the unemployment rate turned out 13%, when the forecast was 20%. It was a breath of a fresh air after a long time of the negative market sentiment.
How the Fed will react to all this?

Despite a positive May jobs report, it’s highly expected that the Fed won’t change the interest rate policy and will continue stimulating the economy. According to Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo, rates will remain near zero until the end of 2021.

Some analysts wonder that the Fed may stop its quantitative easing program on the positive tone as the economy is improving. While others think that authorities will leave its policy unchanged and wait for better indicators “until the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve maximum employment and price stability”. Their quantitative easing has been reduced significantly with just $4 billion dollars per day of Treasury purchases scheduled for the coming week versus 75 billion dollars at the peak of the crisis. The Fed is likely to continue the purchases in the amounts that would be needed. On the economic outlook, most strategists think the Fed will once again focus on the severity of the situation and downgrade risks, but also may mention that the economic activity is bottoming out.

Check the economic calendar

Market outlook on June 10

https://bit.ly/2YkcneC

10.06.2020

USD is still loosing positions against major currencies. There is a good chance to gain on it! Let’s have a closer look.

EUR is back on track

EUR had been climbing for over two weeks since May 26, but it dropped on Friday after the encouraging NFP data. Nevertheless, this week EUR started on a positive footing. It’s headed towards pre-crisis highs at 1.15. Support levels are at 78.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, 1.131 and 1.117, respectively.

GBP keeps rallying

Now GBP/USD is approaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2825. The British pound is likely to gain this week as UK Business Secretary claimed further easing of lockdown restrictions. If it crosses it, it will clear the way up towards the three-month high at 1.31. In opposite, if the pair fails to grow, it will meet the support level at the 200-day moving average at 1.265. If it breaks it down, it may fall deeper to 1.25.

Gold is moving up

XAU/USD reversed after the pullback last week. It’s going towards the retracement level at the high of May 29 at $1730. If it breaks it out, it will open doors to the highest point for over 8 years at $1750. Otherwise, if it starts falling, it will meet support levels at $1700 and $1680.


USD/JPY is steeply falling down

USD/JPY has easily passed the support at 107.5. Now it’s getting closer to the next support at 107. If it crosses it, it may plummet even deeper to 106. However, if some factors push USD/JPY up, the pair will meet the resistance – the 200-day moving average at 108.5.

Main market drivers on June 11

https://bit.ly/2MQxy2k

11.06.2020

Risk-off prevails on the market. Consider trade ideas that presented below.

Fed statement

Yesterday Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Fed, made a rate statement and gave economic guidelines. All market participants waited for that big event. The Powell’s speech was quite dovish. He claimed that the Fed will continue pumping stimulus until the US employment comes back to pre-crisis rates. Jerome Powell was really clear to leave rates below zero for longer: “ We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates”. According to him, the Fed will use all its tools such as low interest rates and enormous amounts of bond purchasing as long as it takes. The economy faces “considerable risks” over the medium term, the Fed mentioned in its statement.

Stocks slumped

Fears of a second coronavirus wave and the caution from the Fed pushed stocks down. S&P 500 is trading near the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 3140. If it breaks it down, it will open doors towards the support at 3000. However, if risk-on comes back soon, stocks can rise again and meet the resistance at 3300.


Gold contracted

Gold prices closed lower yesterday, the first time after three sessions going up. The Fed claimed that it will hold rates near zero at least through 2022. That makes gold a favorable asset for investors in the long term. However, the future risk-on as economies are recovering may weigh on gold prices. XAU/USD is moving down towards the support line at $1725. If it crosses it, gold may fall even deeper to the key barrier at $1700. The resistance is at $1750.


GBP/USD dropped

The Fed’s guideline for the future slow recovery has set risk-averse on the market. The British pound fell down yesterday. If GBP breaks through the 200-day moving average and the support at $1.265, it will be a pivotal moment for bearish traders as GBP may fall even deeper to the key 1.25 psychological mark after that. Nevertheless, if any positive news pushed the British pound up, it will meet the resistance at 1.2825.

Oil decreased

American crude stockpiles raised to a record high. That’s why, investors have fears about the future oil oversupply. Let’s look at the WTI oil chart. The price fell yesterday to $38. If it continues dipping, it will meet the support level at $34 and then at $30. However, oil prices are unlikely to fall down so far. Economies are recovering and the oil demand will increase at the same race. The resistance is at $47.5.