Thread: Forex daily News FBS

News to trade on December 5

More at: http://bit.ly/2E3k00w

05.12.2018

Yesterday's tweet by US president Donald Trump renewed fears about reaching the trade deal with China. "We are either going to have a REAL DEAL with China, or no deal at all”, - said Mr. Trump. In case of no deal, the US will charge a huge number of tariffs against Chinese production. It increased the risk aversion across the financial markets in Asia.

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar fell on the release of the weak GDP. The Australian economy grew by 0.3% in the 3rd quarter, a lower level than the expected 0.6%. The decline happened due to the increased household consumption, driven by spending on food and housing. In addition, the household saving ratio declined to 2.4% in the 3rd quarter. This is the lowest saving rate since December 2007.

AUD/USD has already tested the support at 0.7285 on the news. The strong USD can make the pair retest this level. If the risk-on sentiment across the equity markets increases due to more certainty in the US-China trade deal, the aussie will rise towards the resistance at 0.7370.

EUR/USD fell as the US Dollar had strengthened yesterday after the optimistic comments by the FOMC member John Williams. He anticipates further interest rate hikes by Fed.

After that, the risk-off sentiment contributed to the rise of the greenback. As for the euro, the Italian budget news keeps triggering investors and traders.

If the EUR is supported by the positive news from Italy, EUR/USD can rise towards the resistance at 1.1391. Otherwise, if the USD keeps gaining, the pair can stick below the support at 1.1329.

The European Central Justice announced on Tuesday that the UK could withdraw the Article 50 anytime. That means the country can move out of Brexit and stay within the European Union. However, the British Prime Minister said the country would not quit Brexit under any circumstances. In addition, May lost the three key votes yesterday. Two of them were forcing her to publish secret government legal advice on her Brexit deal. The prime minister said she would release it on Wednesday.

If more uncertainties on the Brexit agreement come out, GBP/USD can stick below the support at 1.2694. In case of more certainty, the pair will rise towards the resistance at 1.2778.

The Bank of Canada rate statement is scheduled at 17:00 MT time. We anticipate the central bank to leave the rates unchanged this time, however, the Governor Stephen Poloz and his colleagues may provide hawkish statements, which may signal the possible increase in the rate in January. In addition, the recently-signed USNCA agreement supports the BOC's hawkish view. If the BOC delivers supportive comments for the CAD, USD/CAD will fall towards the support at 1.3195. If the central bank’s statement disappoints investors and the USD is stronger, USD/CAD will stick above the resistance at 1.3277.

News to trade on December 6

Check the candles: http://bit.ly/2KZ5gkG

06.12.2018

The Chief Financial Officer of Huawei Technologies Co was arrested in Canada over potential violations of US sanctions on Iran, which fueled the trade tensions between the US and China and increased the risk-off sentiment across the equity markets.

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar fell below the 100-day MA, testing the support at 0.7226. The reason for it lies in the dovish outlook for 2019 by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Yesterday’s weak GDP release had a significant impact on the RBA message. If the capital’s outflow from the risky assets continues, the pair will stick below the 0.7285 level and fall towards the next support at 0.7182 (50-day MA). Otherwise, it will rise above the 0.7226 level.

The Bank of Canada statement did not contain any supportive information for the Canadian dollar yesterday. Today, USD/CAD has already crossed the resistance at 1.3368 and has risen towards the next resistance at 1.3450.

The pair is waiting for two releases today: the Canadian trade balance at 15:30 MT time and the American ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 17:00 MT time. According to forecast, we will see the deficit of 7 million Canadian dollars in the trade balance of Canada. If actual figures outperform the forecast, the CAD will be supported. If the trade balance for Canada is greater than expected, the pair will fall towards the 1.3368 level. If it’s broken, the pair will target the next support at 1.3277. Otherwise, if the USD is strong, the pair will be able to stick above the 1.3450 level.

EUR/USD is trading sideways with strong support at 1.1329. If the USD is supported by higher-than-expected Non-Manufacturing PMI, the pair will fall towards the next support at 1.1256. Otherwise, it will sick above 1.1329. The next resistance is placed at 1.1391.

The highly anticipated OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for today in Vienna. According to the recent comments by the OPEC+ members, the production cut will be around 1 million barrels per day. The market did not like this low level as both WTI and Brent has dropped on this news. However, the final decision has not been reached. If they agree on the greater oil output cut, the levels of crude’s price will gain. At the moment of writing, the price for WTI has crossed the $52.2 level and has tested the next support at $50.81. In case of the positive outcome, the price for WTI will go up and can stick above $52.20. The next resistance is placed at $53.92. If the sides do not reach an agreement, WTI’s price will stick below the support at $50.81. The next support is at $49.09. Tomorrow, OPEC members will meet with Russia to finalize the oil output cuts.

Brent follows the similar scenario. If the OPEC+ members decide on the cut of oil production, the crude’s price can stick above the resistance at $61.03. Otherwise, it will fall below the support at $59.41. The next support is placed at $57.4.

Weekly CryptoNews

More at: http://bit.ly/2BYbfDv

07.12.2018

Zhao Dong, crypto billionaire, OTC trader: “In the bull market, I don’t persuade people to buy Bitcoin, because it seems easy to make quick money but in fact, it is not. Now, I start to talk people into buying Bitcoin.”

Since the beginning of the week, Bitcoin has been going down. On Monday, it fell below the psychological level at $4,000. Despite the slight recovery on Tuesday, it kept falling and retested the support at $3,617 on Thursday. Today bears managed to pull the price for the digital asset below the $3,617 level. One of the main reasons behind the current panic-selling lies in the postponed decision on the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Thursday. Another reason may be connected with yesterday's news on a lawsuit against Bitcmain, Bitcoin.com and the Kraken Bitcoin Exchange, which accused them of a plan to take control of the Bitcoin Cash network. If the bearish pressure continues, Bitcoin will fall towards the next support at the September 2017 minimum at $2,970. If the oldest cryptocurrency manages to recover, it will rise above the $3,617 level to the resistance at $4,100.

In other news:

On December 3-5, 199,000 BTC were withdrawn from users, who were inactive since 2014. Transactions were divided by 660 BTC and then were collected on other addresses. No one knows the reason behind it yet.

The largest whale who controls 12 million LTC was found in the Litecoin network.

The share of Tether (USDT) in the market of stablecoins decreased from 90% to 74% during this year.

After the automatic recalculations, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining dropped by 15%. This is the biggest drop since November 2011.

Earlier today, Ethereum’s price collapsed from $100 to $13 on Coinbase Pro but managed to recover in an hour. Coinbase representatives have not commented yet on the sudden crash.

Regulations:

G20 countries will develop the united system for cryptocurrencies’ regulations based on the Financial action task force (FATF) recommendations.

France, Italy, Cyprus, Malta, Portugal, Greece and Spain signed an agreement on a joint promotion of blockchain technologies.

The US authorities decided to analyze the anonymous crypto transactions. Let’s wait where it will go.

New releases:

NASDAQ vice president of Communications approved the plans of the trading platform to launch Bitcoin-futures at the beginning of 2019.

Huawei Corporation launched the cloud blockchain platform for the development of centralized applications.

Bitcoin $3,426.2

Ethereum $85.1

Litecoin $25.24

DASH: $62.85

EU equities slump

More at: http://bit.ly/2LaqE6l

10.12.2018

On Monday, escalating US-Chinese trade tensions impacted European equities due to the fact that market participants fled risk at the beginning of a highly uncertain week, with the UK’s parliamentary vote on Brexit looming too as well as chemicals shares affected by a BASF revenue warning.

The STOXX 600 index decreased by 0.9% hitting a new two-year minimum. The FTSE 100 slumped by about 0.4% in Great Britain, while the DAX index decreased by 0.8% in Germany.

Crude stocks SXEP went down by 1.1%, erasing their 2018 profits. Crude had been the last sector holding onto profits in the European bloc. All the STOXX 600 sector indices are currently staying in the red (with dives of 26% for cars and banks) or intact on the year.

Equities in BASF went down by 4.7% after the German chemicals company slashed its estimate for this year’s gains on Friday.

BASF counterpart Symrise declined by 3.1%, Sika sank by 5.1%, while Imerys went down by 5%, assisting to drag the pan-European chemicals index SX4P down 2.5% and also making it the worst-performer.

Construction and materials stocks, which are very sensitive to economic surge, declined by 1.5%, while autos stocks SXAP went down by 1.3% because trade tensions generated negative consequences.

Chipmakers Siltronic, STMicro, and AMS went down by 2.9%-5.1% because traders had the tech sector ditched.

French hotel, transport, and retail stocks dived reacting to a fourth weekend of "yellow vest" protests, affecting the national economy.

On the STOXX, LVMH and Kering found themselves among the biggest drags. However, France's CAC 40 didn’t manage to underperform European rivals, losing just 0.6%.

Stocks in British energy utilities Centrica as well as SSE went down by about 3% because traders remained quite passive ahead of a decisive vote on Brexit on Tuesday.

News to trade on December 11

Check the graphs: http://bit.ly/2Pz1lvH

11.12.2018

During the Asian session, Chinese Vice President Liu, US trade secretary and trade representative exchanged their opinions on trade. However, it did not result in the increased risk-on sentiment due to the French and UK political uncertainties. As a result, on the daily chart of NZD/USD, the Doji candlestick was formed. Today, New Zealand anticipates the speech by the Reserve bank of New Zealand Governor is scheduled at 21:15 MT time. If the speech by the RBNZ governor is hawkish, the NZD will stick above the resistance at 0.6890. In case of the dovish comments or strong USD, it will fall towards the support at 0.6811.

As for AUD/USD, on the daily chart, the "inverted hammer" candlestick was formed yesterday. It can mean a possible reversal for the pair. If the risk aversion decreases, the pair can rise towards the resistance at 0.7260. Otherwise, the strong USD will pull the pair below the support at 0.7182 (50-day MA). The next support is placed at 0.7126.

Today we anticipate the release of US PPI and core PPI at 15:30 MT time. According to analysts, the headline PPI will remain at the same level. As for the core PPI, it is expected to increase by 0.1%. Yesterday, strong US Dollar pulled EUR/USD below the central pivot at 1.1374. The form of the candlestick shows an uncertainty among traders, as the pair even tested the level at 1.1437.

If the USD is supported by the PPI release, the pair will fall towards the support at 1.1323. Otherwise, it will stick above 1.1374.

Today, the British Prime Minister Theresa May is due to meet with the European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker at 20:15 MT time, the European commission president Donald Tusk at 18:00 MT time and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss the Brexit deal. Earlier, the president of the European Council Donald Tusk tweeted that the EU would not renegotiate Brexit deal. In addition, Mr. Junckler commented that the current Brexit deal was the only deal possible. If the negotiations bring more certainty, the GBP will rise towards the resistance at 1.2642. If Theresa May fails to bring positivity to the market, or the USD is strong, it will break the support at 1.2560 and target the next support at 1.2462.

It is not enough just to reach an agreement. OPEC+ brings new challenges to the market with uncertainties over how the coalition will implement its output cuts. As a result, the price for the crude oil fell yesterday.

If positive news about an oil cut is released, the price for WTI will stick above $52.23. More uncertainties will pull the crude’s price towards the support at $49.93.

As for Brent, the bearish pressure will make its price fall towards the support at $58.60. If the crude’s price is supported, the first resistance lies at $61.15.

News to trade on December 12

Check the candles: http://bit.ly/2EshvFL

12.12.2018

During the early Asian session, comments by US President Donald Trump cheered the markets. He said that he would intervene in Huawei CFO case if it’s good for reaching a great trade deal between the countries and national security. He also noted that negotiations with China have already started via phone. As for Auto tariffs on Japan and EU, they depend on trade negotiations with these countries.However, did not have much effect on the AUD and the NZD due to the strong US Dollar. Positive news on trade deal will help AUD/USD to rise towards the resistance at 0.7260. The risk-off sentiment will pull the pair downwards to the support at 0.7126.

As for NZD/USD, the risk-on mood can help the pair to recover and stick above the resistance at 0.6890. Otherwise, the strong US Dollar will pull it towards the support at 0.6811.

The USD got stronger against the JPY and drove USD/JPY towards the resistance at 113.6. If the USD weakens, the first support for the pair lies at 112.909.

Today we anticipate the release of the headline CPI and core CPI at 15:30 MT time. According to analysts, the headline consumer price index will drop to 0%, while the core CPI will stay at the same level at 0.2%. If the actual data is higher than the forecast, EUR/USD will fall. The first support lies at 1.1260. What can make EUR/USD rise? The successful negotiations between the European Commission president Mr. Juncker and the Italian prime minister Mr. Conte on Italian budget at 17:00 MT time. If the sides will renegotiate on the target of the Italian budget deficit, EUR/USD will rise towards the resistance at 1.1374. Otherwise, it will fall towards 1.1260.

Great Britain is awaiting the Confidence Vote on the Theresa May’s leadership. The members of the Conservative party will vote on whether they have confidence in the current prime minister at 20:00 MT time. If she loses, the leadership contest will begin and it will increase the uncertainty over the Brexit future. The negative news will pull GBP/USD towards the support at 1.2461. Otherwise, if Theresa May protects her place in the government and increases confidence in the Brexit deal, the pair will stick above the resistance at 1.2559.

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News to trade on December 13

Candlesticks graphs here: http://bit.ly/2Lfv0cK

13.12.2018

According to today’s news, Chinese authorities invited the US for further trade negotiations. They also said to plan more US soybean purchases today. As a result, AUD/USD moved higher. More positive news concerning the trade negotiations between the US and Сhina will push the pair towards the resistance at 0.7260. If the uncertainties increase, the pair will fall towards the support at 0.7182 (50-day MA).

The price for NZD/USD also showed uncertainty. If the risk-on sentiment increases, it will rise towards the resistance at 0.6890 and probably retest it. Otherwise, it will fall towards the support at 0.6738.

Today the economic calendar is highlighted by the ECB monetary policy statement at 14:45 MT time. The European central bank is anticipated to end its quantitative easing policy soon. The comments by the ECB president Mario Draghi may support the EUR. EUR/USD was supported yesterday after the news on the budget cut of the Italian budget deficit and rose to the central pivot at 1.1374. The Italian government has agreed to cut its budget deficit to 2.04% compared to 2.40% previously. For now, it anticipates the approval by the European Commission. For now, it has already crossed this level, heading towards the resistance at 1.1437. If the ECB provides hawkish comments for the euro, it will stick near this level. Otherwise, the pair will fall to the support at 1.1323.

Yesterday, Theresa May won her confidence vote. Today she will meet with the European leaders to find a solution on Brexit. That is why the headlines may bring the volatility to the cable. Bulls pushed the pair higher, the pair crossed the 1.2560 level and tested the resistance at 1.2643. If today’s negotiations turn out to be successful for May, the pair will stick above the 1.2643 level. The next resistance is placed at 1.2740. In case of negative news, it will fall towards the support at 1.2560. The next support lies at 1.2462.

Oil continues to face the uncertainties over the OPEC output cut. In case of negative news, the price for WTI will fall towards the support at $49.93. Otherwise, if the OPEC+ confirms its actions, it will rise towards the resistance at $52.23.

As for Brent, the bearish pressure will pull the crude’s price downwards to the support at $58.6. Positive news will pull it higher. The first resistance lies at $61.15.

Bitcoin goes down

More at: http://bit.ly/2QPququ

14.12.2018

On Friday, Bitcoin along with other key crypto assets declined in Asia. It happened due to the fact that digital token protocol Basis ceased operations and had its capital returned to investors because of regulatory fears.

Eventually, Bitcoin inched down by nearly 3.08% showing a reading of $3,305. As for Ethereum, this digital currency sank too, losing 2.42% being worth $86.2.

Besides this, XRP declined by about 1.32% ending up with $0.29919. Additionally, Litecoin slipped by 3.35% concluding at $23.191.

Geared up towards launching a fully decentralized and stable token absolutely resistant to volatility, on Thursday Basis announced its decision to shut down and also return the invested funds to its owners.

The company actually explained that move by a strong negative impact of the necessity to comply with American securities regulation. Under these conditions Basis doesn’t know how to dodge security status for share and bond tokens, which is undesirable for the startup.

By the way, among the startup’s investors there are Bain Capital Ventures, Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowit, and Google’s capital investment arm GV.

Despite some recent regulation hazards and clampdowns, some countries are still interested in driving crypto assets.

In addition to this, the Gulf Times informed that the key financial institution of the United Arab Emirates is actually working on a joint project with its neighbor, the Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority with the aim of launching a digital coin their for cross-border transactions.

Moreover, French politicians also urged the country’s leader to invest up to EUR500 million in the blockchain sector. On Wednesday, they came up with a report on the ledger technology that proposed to make their country a “blockchain nation.” They are assured that in the nearer future blockchain will drastically change the world, and in particular, France.

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News to trade on December 18

Check the candles: http://bit.ly/2EATyw8

18.12.2018

During the Asian session the risk-off sentiment across the markets increased as China’s president Xi Jinping failed to bring updates on the trade truce between the US and China during his speech. As a result, the Japanese yen strengthened against the US Dollar. For now, it has already tested the strong support at $112.49. If it is broken, the next support is at 111.61. If the USD strengthens, the first resistance will lie at 113.11. If this level is broken, bulls will target the next resistance at 113.98.

The New Zealand dollar has been rising on the upbeat level of business confidence. The NZD business confidence increased to -24.1 in December (vs. -37.1 in November). As a result, the kiwi has already crossed the 200-day MA. If NZD/USD continues to move up, it will retest the 0.6876 resistance. If this level is broken, the next resistance is at 0.6961. Otherwise, if the USD gains its strength, the pair will be pulled towards the support at 0.6742.

The euro has been rising due to the weak US Dollar. The Italian and French budget deficits do not affect the market as much as they did. For now, the main focus for the pair remains on the tomorrow's Fed decision on its interest rate and monetary policy. If bulls continue to push the pair up, it will rise towards the resistance at 1.1408. If the USD is supported ahead of the Fed decision, the pair will fall to the support at 1.1338.

The British Prime Minister Theresa May announced the vote on the Brexit plan in the House of Commons to be on January 14. Today, she plans to discuss the chances of a no deal with her cabinet. As the date for the vote brought more certainty, GBP/USD has started to recover. In case of more positive news, the pair will rise further to the resistance at 1.2735. In case of more uncertainty or negative comments, the cable will stick below the support at 1.2605. The next support is placed at 1.2452.

The prices for WTI and Brent keep falling down on the news about the US oversupply. The price for WTI has already tested the support at $48.67. More news about increased oil production will pull its price further to the next support at $47. On the other hand, more hints from OPEC+ on the future production cut will push the WTI price towards the resistance at $49.88. The next resistance lies at $51.55.

Now let's look at Brent's chart. For now, it has been targeting the support at $57.63. If bulls get back their strength, the price for Brent will rise towards the resistance at $58.92. If it's broken, the next resistance is placed at $60.62.

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