Thread: Forex daily News FBS

5 important things this week will bring us!

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21.01.2019

Great Britain’s average earnings index 3m/y – (Tue, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT) time) – Despite the Brexit headlines, economic data for Great Britain may also affect the GBP. We anticipate the level to increase by 3.3% in November. If the indicator outperforms the expectations, the GBP will rise.

BOJ monetary policy statement and monetary policy statement – (Wed, tentative) – the Japanese central bank will keep its interest rate unchanged, but the Japanese governor Haruhiko Kuroda could announce lower forecasts for inflation due to the economic slowdown.

Canada’s retail sales and core retail sales – (Wed, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) – The level of headline retail sales declined by 0.3%, while the level of core retail sales remained at the same level. The expected figures are going to be announced prior to the date. If the actual data is higher than them, the CAD will get positive momentum.

Australia’s employment change and unemployment rate (Thu, 02:30 MT (0:30 GMT) time) – Australia’s jobs level is forecast to increase by 18.1 thousand people. Higher levels will

ECB press conference – (Thu, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) – According to analysts, the first rate hike will be no earlier than in September and might be pushed back due to the signs of economic slowdown. However, the comments by the European central bank president Mario Draghi may shake the euro. His hawkish tone will push the currency up. On the other hand, if he is cautious, the euro will go down.

Hot topics:

The trade negotiations between the US and China have stuck for now, as the sides made little progress on the intellectual property rights issue. The further talks are scheduled to continue at the end of January in the US.

Donald Trump and senior Democrats took their first steps toward a compromise deal on immigration and border security. However, it is still unclear if the sides come to an agreement, as Democrats want the government to open first. It’s worth to mention that Trump offered 3 years of deportation relief for some immigrants in return for $5.7 billion for border walls on Saturday. Democrats rejected this offer before the speech by the US president. We will keep you the further progress of the deal.

More on Brexit: Theresa May returns to Parliament to explain her next steps. Earlier, she told the Cabinet she’ll try to get her deal through Parliament with votes of Conservatives and her Northern Ireland allies. In addition, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she would support the British prime minister.

Evergreen buck steadies

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22.01.2019

On Tuesday, the evergreen buck managed to stabilize in Asia because the International Monetary Fund had its 2019 as well as 2020 global surge forecasts cut overnight.

The IMF currently projects a 3.5% surge rate worldwide for this year and also 3.6% for next year. Eventually, these are 0.2% and also 0.1% below its previous estimates in October.

The fund cited a “no deal” Brexit, China-US trade clashes, a resumed tightening of financial conditions as well as a deeper-than-expected deceleration in China as the major reasons for the downgrade.

The news showed up several hours after on Monday China posted its slowest quarterly economic surge since the financial meltdown.

The Chinese economy managed to ascend by 6.4% in the fourth quarter of the previous year from 2017, as anticipated. The surge appeared to be slower than the previous quarter's outcome of 6.5%.

For last year the full-year surge accounted for 6.6%, which turns out to be in line with expectations.

On Tuesday, the USD index rallied by 0.1% being worth 96.058.

Market participants are also waiting for further news on the US-China trade clash, as Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is braced for visiting America on January 30 and 31 for another round of trade negotiations.

As a matter of fact, the Japanese yen headed north. The currency pair USD/JPY went down by 0.2% being worth 109.43.

The Chinese Yuan rallied by 0.2% showing 6.8022 because China’s major financial institution had the Yuan reference rate set at 6.7854 in contrast with yesterday’s outcome of 6.7774.

As experts at Morgan Stanley told, they’d turned bullish on China’s currency due to the fact they were assured that China’s major bank would stay away from intervening during trade negotiations.

The currency pairs AUD/USD and NZD/USD went down by respectively 0.3% and 0.1%.

Yen slips in Asia

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23.01.2019

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen headed south versus its major peers because investor risk appetite improved during Asia trade, although worries over decelerating global surge and US-China trade clashes will probably cap gains in risky assets.

As a matter of fact, the Japanese yen dived by 0.25% against the US currency ending up with a reading of 109.62. Versus the Australian currency, it slipped by 0.5%.

As anticipated, the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy intact and reduced its inflation estimate, with a greater-than-anticipated dive in December export data earlier in the day giving an emphasis to the necessity for continued support for the Japanese trade-reliant economy.

Moreover, the Australian dollar headed north by 0.2% against the evergreen buck reaching $0.7137.

For recent week the foreign exchange market has been whipsawed because investors attempted to come to terms with an array of issues from Brexit to decelerating global surge and the outlook for key major financial institutions.

Nervousness around global surge as well as trade clashes - these are the factors powering the financial markets now, as some analysts explained.

The International Monetary Fund had its 2019 and also 2020 global surge estimates trimmed, explaining that move by a greater-than-forecast deceleration in the Eurozone and China. The organization also stressed that the inability to resolve trade clashes could further impact a decelerating global economy.

The previous year’s surge in China turned out to be the slowest since 1990. What’s more, it’s braced for weakening further in 2019 before stimulus measures start kicking in.

Market participants are hoping for a significant progress in US-China trade negotiations, with the tariff conflict between the world's leading economies already affecting financial markets as well as global demand.

A report by the Financial Times that America had rejected the Asian country’s proposal for preparatory trade negotiations impacted risk sentiment overnight. However, later it was debunked by a White House adviser.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)〽

RSI also helps to determine the overbought/oversold state of the market to buy low and sell high. The readings of the indicator fluctuate between 0 and 100. If RSI rises above 70 bound, it means that the pair is overbought. If RSI falls below the 30 line – the currency pair is oversold. Moreover, as with MACD, a divergence between RSI and price may warn of the market's reversal..

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Weekly Cryptonews

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25.01.2019

Martin Weiss, the founder of Weiss Ratings: “Like gold, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could become a haven for investors who flee from fiat currency devaluations. In fact, in one key aspect, it may be even better than gold: It cannot be confiscated by any government.”

Tuesday happened to be the most volatile day for Bitcoin this week, as the cryptocurrency fell below the $3,500 level, but managed to rebound quickly to the levels near $3,600. On the H4 chart, we can see that the grandfather of cryptocurrencies has been trading within the $3,586-3,642 range for the last three days. The rebounds from these levels may be used to open positions. For now, Bitcoin has already tested the ground below the support at $3,586. If this level is broken, the next support lies at $3,563. In case bulls get stronger, they may push its price above the resistance at $3,642. The next resistance is placed at $3,658. However, the overall picture of the market and the trend are still bearish. That is why we may expect further falls.



Other news:

Chicago exchange CBOE has canceled its request to approve VanEck and SolidX Bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded funds) due to the current government shutdown. It plans to ask for the approval again when the Security exchange commission starts to work.

Cryptocurrency bank Galaxy Digital plans to invest $250 million to issue credits to blockchain companies, which struggle with the bear market.

The candidate for the US president post, a huge supporter of crypto and the founder of the famous antivirus software John McAfee left the country after he was indicted on charges of tax fraud.

The market anticipates the presentation of the TON blockchain network and GRAM token by Pavel Durov during the World Economic Forum this week. This is a highly important event, which may affect the market positively. According to the news, TON will be launched in March.

The “World Economic and Social Survey 2018” report by the United Nations said cryptocurrencies and blockchain allow to switch their confidence from banks and governments to program codes.

Regulations:


Japanese Regulators Approve Startup’s Bitcoin Sidechain Trial for Exchanges

Chili and Romania plan to apply taxes on crypto operations’ income.

The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia develop a cryptocurrency for payments between banks or governments.

Bitcoin $3,656.5

Ethereum $118.45

Litecoin $33.31

DASH: $76.00

LESSON 10. Calculating value of a pip

In order to calculate the value of one pip in a currency pair, you have to multiply the amount of your trade in lots by one pip in a decimal form (0.0001 or 0.01), and then divide it by the current exchange rate of the quote currency to the US Dollar.

Lot is given in units of our base currency.

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The Fed’s comments may move the USD higher

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29.01.2019

The Federal Reserve and the FOMC will make the monetary policy statement and announce the official rate on January 30 at 21:00 MT time.

There is no chance that the Fed will raise its current 2.5% interest rate. In addition, the recent dovish comments by the FOMC members and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the pause in rate hikes if the US economy weakened. In case the monetary policy statement contains some positive data, the USD will get positive momentum.

• If the FOMC statement is hawkish, the USD will rise.

• If the FOMC statement is dovish, the USD will fall.

Check the economic calendar

Budget Management Tips. ��*��

A lack of money management skills can cost you everything you have on your trading account – even if you are good in everything else. What can you do to enter, stay, and profit on the market through money management? Read on and see.
We analyzed the most popular money management strategies and picked the most valid tips for those who want to maximize their investment effort.

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Average True Range
Average True Range (ATR) is an indicator of market’s volatility. In other words, it helps to determine the average size of the daily trading range. ATR rises when trading is more volatile (price bars are long) and falls during periods of low volatility (price bars are short). Use ATR to determine the best position for Stop orders.

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Trading strategy with a dead cat bounce

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Imagine that you trade your favorite currency pair in the long-lasted bear market. Suddenly, the price has started to go up. However, don’t get confused too quickly. There is a possibility that you faced with a so-called dead cat bounce. Wait, don’t be scared, FBS carries about animals and the environment! This is just the name of the short-term retracements. But they may actually be “deadly” for you, especially if you do not know how to trade during this situation and how to divide such bounce from the actual reversal. In the article, we provide you the explanation of the dead cat bounce and the trading strategy, which may be used to trade during this kind of reversal.

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